Honda - another disaster ?

Honda - another disaster ?

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Dr Z

3,396 posts

171 months

Monday 2nd October 2017
quotequote all
Did anyone notice the FOM graphics that was displaying ERS charge when Vettel was catching Ricciardo? The Renault ERS seemed to charge up quicker than the Ferrari as they went through the lap.

The published speed trap data only gives a small snapshot into the PU performance and can be very misleading.

Hamilton was topping out at about 300 km/h in clean air early on in the race. When Max went to overtake him, he must have been trying to defend using the ERS, as his top speed went to around 305 km/h. Max was doing around 328 km/h with DRS when he overtook Hamilton for the lead.

When the postions were reversed, the top speeds were reversed as Hamilton tried to attack Max (lap 5), except Max was topping out at around 296 km/h in clear air. After Max broke away from DRS range (lap 6), Hamilton must have had his engine turned up (or the derate issue solved), as he was topping out at 310 km/h now without DRS with no change in top speed for Max.

Towards the end of the first stint when Max was 9 or so seconds ahead of Hamilton, the latter was hitting 305 km/h consistently in the two straights. Max was touching 300 km/h in the back straight and 296km/h in the pit straight. Pretty interesting.

In the early laps of the GP, Stoffel was in clear air being chased by Perez with DRS. 295 km/h plays 320 km/h down one straight and 290 km/h plays 323 km/h down the other straight. Similar top speed to RB. The top speeds were more consistent for Perez than Stoffel. Suspect rationing of the deployment over a lap for better effect going on with Honda. Common for all PUs, but especially evident with Honda.

Stoffel broke away from DRS for a few laps during which his top speeds were around 290 km/h. Perez was doing 310 km/h behind him. It was pretty cool to see this little fight, Perez catching up to him in the straight and all the way into T4, Stoffel pulling a gap from T4 all the way to T14, particularly in the quick corners. Then Perez catches up in the two straights that follows T14 and the sequence repeats till he overtook him. Lap 8, Perez was hitting near enough 330 km/h with the help of DRS while Stoffel was doing 295 km/h in the run to T1, and finally overtook in the run to T4.

It was funny, after T14 now Stoffel had DRS and was doing the same speed as Perez in clear air! About 305 km/h. Moral of the story is McLaren didn't run near as much wing as the FI or indeed the Red Bull or Merc. Long way to go yet.

Edited by Dr Z on Monday 2nd October 13:28

Car-Matt

1,923 posts

138 months

Monday 2nd October 2017
quotequote all
Dr Z said:
Did anyone notice the FOM graphics that was displaying ERS charge when Vettel was catching Ricciardo? The Renault ERS seemed to charge up quicker than the Ferrari as they went through the lap.

The published speed trap data only gives a small snapshot into the PU performance and can be very misleading.

Hamilton was topping out at about 300 km/h in clean air early on in the race. When Max went to overtake him, he must have been trying to defend using the ERS, as his top speed went to around 305 km/h. Max was doing around 328 km/h with DRS when he overtook Hamilton for the lead.

When the postions were reversed, the top speeds were reversed as Hamilton tried to attack Max (lap 5), except Max was topping out at around 296 km/h in clear air. After Max broke away from DRS range (lap 6), Hamilton must have had his engine turned up (or the derate issue solved), as he was topping out at 310 km/h now without DRS with no change in top speed for Max.

Towards the end of the first stint when Max was 9 or so seconds ahead of Hamilton, the latter was hitting 305 km/h consistently in the two straights. Max was touching 300 km/h in the back straight and 296km/h in the pit straight. Pretty interesting.

In the early laps of the GP, Stoffel was in clear air being chased by Perez with DRS. 295 km/h plays 320 km/h down one straight and 290 km/h plays 323 km/h down the other straight. Similar top speed to RB. The top speeds were more consistent for Perez than Stoffel. Suspect rationing of the deployment over a lap for better effect going on with Honda. Common for all PUs, but especially evident with Honda.

Stoffel broke away from DRS for a few laps during which his top speeds were around 290 km/h. Perez was doing 310 km/h behind him. It was pretty cool to see this little fight, Perez catching up to him in the straight and all the way into T4, Stoffel pulling a gap from T4 all the way to T14, particularly in the quick corners. Then Perez catches up in the two straights that follows T14 and the sequence repeats till he overtook him. Lap 8, Perez was hitting near enough 330 km/h with the help of DRS while Stoffel was doing 295 km/h in the run to T1, and finally overtook in the run to T4.

It was funny, after T14 now Stoffel had DRS and was doing the same speed as Perez in clear air! About 305 km/h. Moral of the story is McLaren didn't run near as much wing as the FI or indeed the Red Bull or Merc. Long way to go yet.

Edited by Dr Z on Monday 2nd October 13:28
Nice post thanks

But if advancing up the leaderboard is as simple as running less wing then why don't they all do it........my point still stands that at a power circuit with high consumption 7th is a remarkable result that seems to have gone under the radar somewhat. AND i feel Merc had chased the wrong set up entirely

RumbleOfThunder

3,552 posts

203 months

Monday 2nd October 2017
quotequote all
How about the theory I've seen that McLaren have been deliberately running high down force to flatter their chassis and further compound the engine issues? That would explain how mighty they have been in certain sectors at times and makes it very easy to put their lack of pace down to the well publicised Honda scapegoat. Devils advocate of course. smile

Car-Matt

1,923 posts

138 months

Monday 2nd October 2017
quotequote all
RumbleOfThunder said:
How about the theory I've seen that McLaren have been deliberately running high down force to flatter their chassis and further compound the engine issues? That would explain how mighty they have been in certain sectors at times and makes it very easy to put their lack of pace down to the well publicised Honda scapegoat. Devils advocate of course. smile
Er NOPE

Chassis looked great in the slower sectors yesterday vs other cars, even more impressive if running less wing

Dr Z

3,396 posts

171 months

Monday 2nd October 2017
quotequote all
Car-Matt said:
But if advancing up the leaderboard is as simple as running less wing then why don't they all do it........my point still stands that at a power circuit with high consumption 7th is a remarkable result that seems to have gone under the radar somewhat. AND i feel Merc had chased the wrong set up entirely
Indeed, it is a fantastic result. At this track you get more (lap time) bang for your buck if you can run more wing (hence the general competitive order at the sharp end amongst other things). The fact that Perez finished 30 odd seconds ahead of Stoffel at the end shows how far back they are, but Honda have come a long way from the season start. They beat both Williams cars, more like Williams beat themselves but that's racing.

Dr Z

3,396 posts

171 months

Friday 3rd November 2017
quotequote all
Was messing about with some numbers to estimate the power levels of the different PUs.

Recorded the Vmax from COTA in the run from T11-T13 during the best laps in qualifying & early part of the race from F1 app. In qualifying the number is with the rear wing open, while the race number is when the wing is closed. Assumption is Mercedes have a little more than a 1000 bhp in their qualifying mode, also I'm assuming there is no works/customer disparity (Sauber excepted).

Power = drag x speed^3

This is what I came up with:

Team Q Vmax (km/h) drag coefficient (Q) Q mode (bhp) R Vmax (km/h) drag coefficient (R) Race mode (bhp) Q-R Vmax delta (km/h) R-Q drag delta
Mercedes 329 0.99 1013 305 1.22 995 24 0.23
Force India 327 1.008 1013 303 1.245 995 24 0.237
Williams 326 1.017 1013 305 1.22 995 21 0.203
Ferrari 327 1.003 1008 303 1.24 992 24 0.237
Haas 324 1.031 1008 301 1.264 991 23 0.233
Sauber 322 0.95 912 301 1.14 894 21 0.19
Renault 320 1.03 970 301 1.23 964 19 0.2
RBR 321 1.02 970 302 1.218 964 19 0.198
Toro Rosso 319 1.04 970 301 1.23 964 18 0.19
McLaren 312 1.05 917 295 1.22 900 17 0.17



Maybe it's an useless exercise, but was shocked how much I had to move the drag coefficient in the McLaren to get power levels in the same ball park as the Sauber running last year's Ferrari PU.

Noted how the McLaren gains the least speed with the wing open and has the lowest Vmax with it closed.

Being generous to Honda, it seems they're still the best part of a 100 bhp behind...

Ferrari seem thereabouts, and a 30-40 bhp deficit for Renault.

Quick back of the envelope calc on the predicted Vmax for Mexico seems to stack up, from these numbers.

Thoughts?

ETA: typos

Edited by Dr Z on Friday 3rd November 14:56

stevesingo

4,854 posts

222 months

Friday 3rd November 2017
quotequote all
It would seem that Renault has more power in the race than in qualy?

jammy-git

29,778 posts

212 months

Friday 3rd November 2017
quotequote all
Have RB confirmed whether they're using Honda next year or not yet?

thegreenhell

15,286 posts

219 months

Friday 3rd November 2017
quotequote all
jammy-git said:
Have RB confirmed whether they're using Honda next year or not yet?
They are still with Renault for next year. It's 2019 onwards that is uncertain.

Dr Z

3,396 posts

171 months

Friday 3rd November 2017
quotequote all
stevesingo said:
It would seem that Renault has more power in the race than in qualy?
Good catch, updated. smile

jammy-git

29,778 posts

212 months

Friday 3rd November 2017
quotequote all
thegreenhell said:
jammy-git said:
Have RB confirmed whether they're using Honda next year or not yet?
They are still with Renault for next year. It's 2019 onwards that is uncertain.
Ah, OK, thanks.

Flooble

5,565 posts

100 months

Saturday 4th November 2017
quotequote all
I sat here trying to work out what the dynamic pressure column was ... then realised the "Q" was for qualifying. Doh.

Interesting that Williams had the same drag as Mercedes - I was always under the impression they tried to make their car a bit more slippery.

With Ferrari having caught up to Mercedes power levels, next year could well see them romp home (get fast, get reliable ... and the car itself has always seemed to work better, just lacked power).

stevesingo

4,854 posts

222 months

Saturday 4th November 2017
quotequote all
Thinking more about DrZ's figures, I have a couple of questions.

1, Where did you get the drag numbers from?

2, When the DRS mechanisms are broadly the same, i.e 50mm opening across the width of the RW, why is the spread of delta between teams for DRS open/close so large, from 0.17 to 0.237?

I also did some sums for Austin

I look at the top speeds in clean air are as follows;

Verstappen 322.8kph
Ricciado 321.8
Sainz 320.9
Hulk 319.8
Alonso 310.7

Therefore delta from the only reliable data we have on honda powered car to the slowest Renault car 9.1kph.

All data from FiA timing and App.

By my calcs, assuming the Renault is 950hp, 9.1kph difference is equal to 8.5% more drag or 73hp, or of course a combination of both.

Equal drag and 73hp deficit

1% drag and 65hp
2% drag and 56hp
3% drag and 48hp
4% drag and 39hp
5% drag and 31hp
6% drag and 22hp
7% drag and 14hp
8% drag and 6hp
8.5% drag and equal power.

Those numbers are based on assumption of rolling drag and Renault having 950hp as stated.

It could up to 5% difference in drag to the works Renault at the most, more likely in the 2-3% range IMO.

HustleRussell

24,665 posts

160 months

Saturday 4th November 2017
quotequote all
Flooble said:
I sat here trying to work out what the dynamic pressure column was ... then realised the "Q" was for qualifying. Doh.

Interesting that Williams had the same drag as Mercedes - I was always under the impression they tried to make their car a bit more slippery.

With Ferrari having caught up to Mercedes power levels, next year could well see them romp home (get fast, get reliable ... and the car itself has always seemed to work better, just lacked power).
Mercedes are going to have to make big changes during the off season to make their car easier and more consistent to drive. It might go as far as all new suspension and aero. This presents an opportunity for Ferrari, or (more likely IMO) Red Bull.

The reason Ferrari were able to mount such a challenge out of the blue this season was they protested a technology which Mercedes and Red Bull had that they didn't, their car was designed from the ground up to work without it, while Mercedes and Red Bull's car needed it. Ferrari hobbled them both. It was something to do with a workaround on the banned FRICS technology.

Dr Z

3,396 posts

171 months

Saturday 4th November 2017
quotequote all
stevesingo said:
Thinking more about DrZ's figures, I have a couple of questions.

1, Where did you get the drag numbers from?

2, When the DRS mechanisms are broadly the same, i.e 50mm opening across the width of the RW, why is the spread of delta between teams for DRS open/close so large, from 0.17 to 0.237?
1) Basically, we know that the Merc is producing at least a 1000 hp in qualifying trim, as there was some noise made about it even last year. I arrive at a base Cd from that point by balancing the equation out, which then informs the drag levels for the other cars. Pretty much amounts to a guess, but I suppose the model can be refined with predicting speeds & confirming with further data points from other tracks. Whilst we might not be correct in the absolute hp numbers, it helps to determine the relative hp deficits.

2) The drag delta falls out of the observation that some cars appear to gain more speed (and by extension, lose more drag) when DRS is active than others. The assumption being, it relates to the downforce/wing levels run by a given car.

stevesingo said:
I also did some sums for Austin

I look at the top speeds in clean air are as follows;

Verstappen 322.8kph
Ricciado 321.8
Sainz 320.9
Hulk 319.8
Alonso 310.7

Therefore delta from the only reliable data we have on honda powered car to the slowest Renault car 9.1kph.

All data from FiA timing and App.

By my calcs, assuming the Renault is 950hp, 9.1kph difference is equal to 8.5% more drag or 73hp, or of course a combination of both.

Equal drag and 73hp deficit

1% drag and 65hp
2% drag and 56hp
3% drag and 48hp
4% drag and 39hp
5% drag and 31hp
6% drag and 22hp
7% drag and 14hp
8% drag and 6hp
8.5% drag and equal power.

Those numbers are based on assumption of rolling drag and Renault having 950hp as stated.

It could up to 5% difference in drag to the works Renault at the most, more likely in the 2-3% range IMO.
Agreed, I suppose I'm trying to see the best case scenario for Honda, although it doesn't improve the outlook hugely even if the drag levels in the DRS off condition is pushed up way into outlier territory. I'm supposing McLaren are not that stupid, I guess.

EDITED brain fade moment

Edited by Dr Z on Saturday 4th November 20:35

MartG

Original Poster:

20,668 posts

204 months

Sunday 3rd December 2017
quotequote all

stevesingo

4,854 posts

222 months

Sunday 3rd December 2017
quotequote all
Dr Z said:
stevesingo said:
Thinking more about DrZ's figures, I have a couple of questions.

1, Where did you get the drag numbers from?

2, When the DRS mechanisms are broadly the same, i.e 50mm opening across the width of the RW, why is the spread of delta between teams for DRS open/close so large, from 0.17 to 0.237?
1) Basically, we know that the Merc is producing at least a 1000 hp in qualifying trim, as there was some noise made about it even last year. I arrive at a base Cd from that point by balancing the equation out, which then informs the drag levels for the other cars. Pretty much amounts to a guess, but I suppose the model can be refined with predicting speeds & confirming with further data points from other tracks. Whilst we might not be correct in the absolute hp numbers, it helps to determine the relative hp deficits.

2) The drag delta falls out of the observation that some cars appear to gain more speed (and by extension, lose more drag) when DRS is active than others. The assumption being, it relates to the downforce/wing levels run by a given car.

stevesingo said:
I also did some sums for Austin

I look at the top speeds in clean air are as follows;

Verstappen 322.8kph
Ricciado 321.8
Sainz 320.9
Hulk 319.8
Alonso 310.7

Therefore delta from the only reliable data we have on honda powered car to the slowest Renault car 9.1kph.

All data from FiA timing and App.

By my calcs, assuming the Renault is 950hp, 9.1kph difference is equal to 8.5% more drag or 73hp, or of course a combination of both.

Equal drag and 73hp deficit

1% drag and 65hp
2% drag and 56hp
3% drag and 48hp
4% drag and 39hp
5% drag and 31hp
6% drag and 22hp
7% drag and 14hp
8% drag and 6hp
8.5% drag and equal power.

Those numbers are based on assumption of rolling drag and Renault having 950hp as stated.

It could up to 5% difference in drag to the works Renault at the most, more likely in the 2-3% range IMO.
Agreed, I suppose I'm trying to see the best case scenario for Honda, although it doesn't improve the outlook hugely even if the drag levels in the DRS off condition is pushed up way into outlier territory. I'm supposing McLaren are not that stupid, I guess.

EDITED brain fade moment

Edited by Dr Z on Saturday 4th November 20:35
After Brundle's comments in Abu Dhabi, I redid the math.

Using the figures Brundle spoke of, i.e Merc-2%=Ferrari-6%=Renault-11%=Honda, and assuming in qualifying Merc have 1000hp, this gives the following;

Ferrari=980hp
Renault=943hp
Honda=901hp

We also have the top speeds of all chassis for Abu Dhabi

ForceIndia=331.8
Williams=329.4
Merc=326.9
Ferrari=325.6
HAAS=324.2
RBR=322.7
Sauber=321.2 (we can discount these as Brundle made no mention of the 2016 Ferrari number)
Renault=320.1
TorroRosso=318.3
McLaren=316.3

Running it all through my spreadsheet I get the following.

Drag delta % of Merc powered cars

FI=0%
Williams= +2.3%
Merc= +4.8%

Drag delta % of Ferrari 2017 powered cars

Ferrari= 0%
HASS= +1.36%

Drag delta % of Renault powered cars

RBR= 0%
Renault= +2.57%
TR= +4.41%

As this is the Honda thread, I will get back on topic, drag levels of all above compared to the McLaren;

ForceIndia= -3.17%
RBR= -1.06%
Williams= -0.84%
Merc= -0.49%
McLaren= 0%
Ferrari= +0.49%
Renault= +1.44%
HAAS= +1.85%
TorroRosso= +3.17%

Now, I see that TR are looking bad. That may be because they are conserving PU components, but the same could be said of all except Hamilton.

Anyway, using the McLaren Drag figure and the Renault power level we get an extra 5.3kph on top speed, up to 321.6kph. With Merc power it would be 328.5kph!

Would I put my life on the figures above? Nope! But, it is interesting to compare and it looks like Williams have less than 1% less drag!



Dr Z

3,396 posts

171 months

Saturday 16th June 2018
quotequote all
Not so much of a disaster now, are they? smile

Sorry to resurrect this thread, I think we were not so far off in our calculations last year, especially this bit (my emphasis):

stevesingo said:
After Brundle's comments in Abu Dhabi, I redid the math.

Using the figures Brundle spoke of, i.e Merc-2%=Ferrari-6%=Renault-11%=Honda, and assuming in qualifying Merc have 1000hp, this gives the following;

Ferrari=980hp
Renault=943hp
Honda=901hp

We also have the top speeds of all chassis for Abu Dhabi

ForceIndia=331.8
Williams=329.4
Merc=326.9
Ferrari=325.6
HAAS=324.2
RBR=322.7
Sauber=321.2 (we can discount these as Brundle made no mention of the 2016 Ferrari number)
Renault=320.1
TorroRosso=318.3
McLaren=316.3

Running it all through my spreadsheet I get the following.

Drag delta % of Merc powered cars

FI=0%
Williams= +2.3%
Merc= +4.8%

Drag delta % of Ferrari 2017 powered cars

Ferrari= 0%
HASS= +1.36%

Drag delta % of Renault powered cars

RBR= 0%
Renault= +2.57%
TR= +4.41%

As this is the Honda thread, I will get back on topic, drag levels of all above compared to the McLaren;

ForceIndia= -3.17%
RBR= -1.06%
Williams= -0.84%
Merc= -0.49%
McLaren= 0%
Ferrari= +0.49%
Renault= +1.44%
HAAS= +1.85%
TorroRosso= +3.17%

Now, I see that TR are looking bad. That may be because they are conserving PU components, but the same could be said of all except Hamilton.

Anyway, using the McLaren Drag figure and the Renault power level we get an extra 5.3kph on top speed, up to 321.6kph. With Merc power it would be 328.5kph!

Would I put my life on the figures above? Nope! But, it is interesting to compare and it looks like Williams have less than 1% less drag!
The case of TR is interesting. My impression last year was that they were definitely down on top speed compared to other Renault runners even early on in the season. They've changed the nose and also have had to re-do the rear of car this year with the Honda engine. But this year's car looks a lot better on top speed compared to last year, and I think it's partly to do with the car and partly Honda.

Some estimates of where the different PU manufacturers were/are on peak power in qualifying (hp) in the hybrid era from various sources:

Year Mercedes Ferrari Renault Honda
2014 850 780 760 -
2015 950 900 860 750?
2016 980 950 900 880
2017 >1000 980 940 910
2018 >1000 >1000 980 980


There was a paper kicking about on ERS deployment control which I think was based on the Ferrari 2014 PU and that gave power levels. I've quoted that from memory, so could be wrong. Renault give conservative estimates of power levels in their PU spec sheet, so I've taken into account development brought during the season to reflect final power levels.

Things have come a long way!

ajprice

27,454 posts

196 months

Tuesday 19th June 2018
quotequote all
It's not official yet, but Red Bull Honda for 2019 looks like it's going to be announced soon https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.motorsport.com/...

carl_w

9,173 posts

258 months

Tuesday 19th June 2018
quotequote all
ajprice said:
It's not official yet, but Red Bull Honda for 2019 looks like it's going to be announced soon https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.motorsport.com/...
Now it is https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/136852/red-bull-...