The Official F1 2019 silly season *contains speculation*

[Vaud]

The silly season speculation has started given the number of drivers out of contract for 2019... this must be close to a record number of drivers becoming available?

(-) denotes out of contract for 2019, or unclear position; sourced from Reddit, Autobild and surfing.

44. Lewis Hamilton (-)
77. Valtteri Bottas (-)

3. Daniel Ricciardo (-)
33. Max Verstappen (2020)

5. Sebastian Vettel (2020)
7. Kimi Raikkonen (-)

11. Sergio Perez (-)
31. Esteban Ocon (2019)

35. Sergey Olegovich Sirotkin (2019)
18. Lance Stroll (2018?)

14. Fernando Alonso (option?)
2. Stoffel Vandoorne (option?)

10. Pierre Gasly (?)
28. Brendon Hartley (?)

8. Romain Grosjean (-)
20. Kevin Magnussen (-)

27. Nico Hulkenberg (option for 2019)
55. Carlos Sainz Jnr (2019) - loan for 2018 from TR

9 Marcus Ericsson (?)
16 Charles Leclerc (?)

So many variables...
The main chess pieces (in my view): Hamilton, Ricciardo, Alonso

[Rude-boy]

Danny Ric to Ferrari or Merc.

Bottas to Mclaren.

Kimi to Walls or Carte D'or.

[Speed Badger]

Might there be a possible Ricciardo / Raikkonen swaperoo? Looks fairly certain DR will leave Red Bull and im not sure that Gasly or Hartley are ready for the big job yet.

[FourWheelDrift]

Speed Badger said:

Might there be a possible Ricciardo / Raikkonen swaperoo? Looks fairly certain DR will leave Red Bull and im not sure that Gasly or Hartley are ready for the big job yet.

I don't think Red Bull wouldn't take on a non-Red Bull driver. Most likely Carlos Sainz would come back and take Ricciardo's place if he goes to Ferrari.

[rdjohn]

I have forgotten where I read it, but apparently the only thing that separates Lewis and Mercedes is that he wants a two-year deal, while they want a three-year deal.

Liberty’s plans for the future are what they are waiting for, so there is a pause in negotiations to se what has been agreed in May.

The stuff about him moving to Ferrari is just journalists filling column inches with ”Breaking News”.

[NotStig]

I'd like to see Dan Ricciardo in at Ferrari, but I don't see Kimi wanting to move the other way. I doubt Horner would want to shell out the mega bucks for Kimi to under-perform in his car either. Kimi's going to be sitting on a beach next year, eating vodka flavoured ice cream, IMHO.

Unless Bottas really delivers something special, I can't see him being renewed at Merc. He's showing himself as a solid #2, but I don't think Hamilton is there for many more years and they need to start bringing through the next big thing. Ironically, it could end up being a tug of war over the two Red Bull drivers for the Mercedes seat for 2019 or 2020, depending on whether DR signs with Ferrari for 2019 and onward. Bearing in mind that Ferrari have LeClerc sitting on the sidelines waiting for Kimi to wander off as well. So, bunfight for the second Ferrari seat, or wait for Bottas to be shown the door and get a seat at Merc? Either way, DR for world champion by 2020.

[Vaud]

Some random thoughts.

Given the current performance, I can't see either Force India (and their rumoured problems) retaining either driver.

From a racing perspective I'd like to see Ocon in one of the top seats. I think he would fit well at either Ferrari or Mercedes.

I'm torn on the Honey Badger. He brings a lot of personality but I suspect neither Vettel nor want him in the team. Merc still have the scars of managing two very high performing drivers.

I think Kimi will retire. Ferrari culture would imply taking someone like Bottas or Perez; solid, experienced but a number 2. Or take a risk on Sainz? LeClerc needs another season. Two years ago I would have said Grosjean, but he seems to have lost a little?

RB have plenty of choices; Gasly/Sainz would be good if they lose DR.

[thegreenhell]

Here's my random guesses of what 2019 could look like:

Mercedes
HAM - RIC

Ferrari
VET - Bottas/Perez

RBR
VER - Sainz

Renault
HUL - Bottas/Perez

FI
OCO - Wehrlein

The main thing is Kimi to retire, which will free up a seat for some reshuffling among a few teams. I don't think there'll be much/any change in the other teams.

[Vaud]

Are these the hottest seats (in order)?

Mercedes
Ferrari
(ignore RB as they will source from within)
Renault
Haas
McLaren
Torro Rosso
Force India / Williams / Sauber (all equally screwed at the moment)

[Dr Z]

I'm thinking,

Ricciardo -> Merc
Gasly -> RBR
Bottas -> Ferrari (unless you're actually much quicker than Vettel it would be career suicide to go to Ferrari atm)
Norris -> McLaren

We'd like to keep Alonso at McLaren please.

No idea what will happen at Williams or TR.

Sainz has said that he sees a better future at Renault than going back into the fold @ RBR, so I'm assuming the Renault line up will be unchanged.

If Alonso starts fancying the works Renault seat, Sainz could end up back at RBR to fill Ricciardo's seat.

If Alonso goes, Vandoorne will probably keep his seat.

I suspect Kimi will retire at the end of this season.

[GCH]

I would love to see Lewis in a Ferrari and still reckon he will be at some point before he retires.
I can imagine the lure of the prancing horse is as strong as it would be for any driver, plus the potential to be a champion for three different teams must be factored in.
Unlikely with vettel there though.

[super7]

For what it's worth....... Botas to stay. Nobody really ready to replace him. Carlos sainz at Red Bull to partner Verstappen again. Then we'll see if Verstappen really is good. Danny Ric to Ferrari.... just has to be done, Autralian / Italian :-). Stroll out of Williams... he's not good enough, neither is Sirotkin but contracted I guess. Force India to be Mercedes junior team. Need somewhere for George Russell..... oh and Vandoorne dumped from McLaren for Norris!

Mercedes
44. Lewis Hamilton (-)
77. Valtteri Bottas (-)

Red Bull ------- See who's better since they were last together
55. Carlos Sainz Jnr (2019) - loan for 2018 from TR
33. Max Verstappen (2020)

Ferrari
5. Sebastian Vettel (2020)
3. Daniel Ricciardo (-)

Force india ------ Mercedes Junior Team
11. George Russell
31. Esteban Ocon (2019)

Williams
35. Sergey Olegovich Sirotkin (2019)
18. ANyone but Stroll

McLaren
14. Fernando Alonso (option?)
2. Llando Norris

Torro Rosso
10. Pierre Gasly (?)
28. Hartley - or Kvyat - very low on ready drivers at the moment.

Haas
8. Antonio Giovinazzi
20. Kevin Magnussen (-)

Renault
27. Nico Hulkenberg (option for 2019)
xx. Renault dev driver

Sauber
9 Antonio Fuoco
16 Charles Leclerc (?)

[FourWheelDrift]

super7 said:

McLaren
14. Fernando Alonso (option?)
2. Llando Norris

Good to see a Welsh driver back in F1.

[Vaud]

super7 said:

For what it's worth....... Botas to stay. Nobody really ready to replace him.

Not Ocon? Mercedes back driver, pretty solid last year?

[housen]

GCH said:

I would love to see Lewis in a Ferrari and still reckon he will be at some point before he retires.
I can imagine the lure of the prancing horse is as strong as it would be for any driver, plus the potential to be a champion for three different teams must be factored in.
Unlikely with vettel there though.

ugh im not saying anything but if you know some of the italian culture you will never see hamilton at ferrari

the italain football fans booed Mario Balotelli when he was playing for the national italian side ....AND NOT BECAUSE HE WAS A BAD FOOTBALL PLAYER

[Vaud]

housen said:

ugh im not saying anything but if you know some of the italian culture you will never see hamilton at ferrari

the italain football fans booed Mario Balotelli when he was playing for the national italian side ....AND NOT BECAUSE HE WAS A BAD FOOTBALL PLAYER

Lewis was racially abused in 2008/2009 by Spanish fans.

I'm not sure racing for Ferrari would be an issue given only 1 race is in Italy, and any travelling fans would be minimal?

[Rude-boy]

Vaud said:

housen said:

ugh im not saying anything but if you know some of the italian culture you will never see hamilton at ferrari

the italain football fans booed Mario Balotelli when he was playing for the national italian side ....AND NOT BECAUSE HE WAS A BAD FOOTBALL PLAYER

Lewis was racially abused in 2008/2009 by Spanish fans.

I'm not sure racing for Ferrari would be an issue given only 1 race is in Italy, and any travelling fans would be minimal?

As much as we in the UK like to kick the st out of ourselves about how we treat and deal with people there are sadly an awful lot of other cultures who don't even get close to us and who pay little more than, or even any, lip service to the reality that it is not the gender, sexual orientation, race or religious beliefs that determine who the best person for the job is.

That there is only one race in Italy is irrelevant. Hamilton at Ferrari is not going to happen, and if it does it will be a very bold move for more than just performance reasons.

Now what could be in Hamilton's future is a conversation along the lines of "Okay Lewis, here are two contracts, they are identical save that one is for 3 years, the other for 2, and that the 3 year one gives you a veto over your team mate. The third contract, that you will not be provided with a copy of, is the one for Ricciardo which we will be putting in the post to him if you sign the 2 year deal rather than the 3 year one. Your call."

[Vaud]

Gaz. said:

Force India- their financial situation means it's too complex to guess who drives for them.

I'm not sure they will survive.

[Muzzer79]

Vaud said:

Given the current performance, I can't see either Force India (and their rumoured problems) retaining either driver.

Current performance?

You mean, first three races? That's a bit early to be judging either the car or the drivers.

Lots of other wild theories on this thread, without considering patterns of the past.

Lewis will re-sign with Mercedes.
Danny Ric will likely move to Ferrari or Mercedes. I don't agree with people being judged on individual races but China really came at a good time for him.
Sainz to RB to replace DR
Alonso and Vandorne will stay at McLaren.
Bottas will stay if Ricciardo doesn't go there. If he does, I'd expect him at Renault to replace Sainz going to RB.

Ferrari really have a tough one. Raikkonen is really getting on, but he ticks a lot of boxes. He is compliant to SV, doesn't get the hump about being compromised to suit SV, is pretty fast on his day and picks up points. I can see him staying, unless they can pull off a real coup.
If Ricciardo goes there, he'll retire.

[housen]

Vaud said:

housen said:

ugh im not saying anything but if you know some of the italian culture you will never see hamilton at ferrari

the italain football fans booed Mario Balotelli when he was playing for the national italian side ....AND NOT BECAUSE HE WAS A BAD FOOTBALL PLAYER

Lewis was racially abused in 2008/2009 by Spanish fans.

I'm not sure racing for Ferrari would be an issue given only 1 race is in Italy, and any travelling fans would be minimal?

EVERYONE IS ITALIAN AT FERRARI ALL THE WAY TO THE TOP !