The Official 2019 Australian Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**
Discussion
Derek Smith said:
A few things will be revealed on Sunday:
The relative pace of the RB and Renault.
The relative pace of LeClerc and Vettel.
The relative pace of the Ferraris and Mercs.
These will probably change through the early part of the season, perhaps especially so with LeClerc. I reckon he'll try to hard, spin a few times, qually poorly and then collide following an ambitious overtake. However, on a clear lap he'll frighten Vettel.
If the Ferrari has the legs of the Merc then Ferrari will rein in one or other of their drivers after five races.
RB and Renault are the imponderables. If RB fail miserably then I could see this being their last season.
Renault's threat is to the bosses of the team. They need results by race 6.
It has the makings of being an exciting season.
It does have the makings of an exciting season. I would go as far as to say it already has been exciting with almost the entire grid showing evidence of tangible gains in Barcelona, Williams various 'issues' and every reason to believe that Mercedes & Ferrari will be very close again, irrespective of which is outright quickest.The relative pace of the RB and Renault.
The relative pace of LeClerc and Vettel.
The relative pace of the Ferraris and Mercs.
These will probably change through the early part of the season, perhaps especially so with LeClerc. I reckon he'll try to hard, spin a few times, qually poorly and then collide following an ambitious overtake. However, on a clear lap he'll frighten Vettel.
If the Ferrari has the legs of the Merc then Ferrari will rein in one or other of their drivers after five races.
RB and Renault are the imponderables. If RB fail miserably then I could see this being their last season.
Renault's threat is to the bosses of the team. They need results by race 6.
It has the makings of being an exciting season.
I don't think RB would leave the sport no matter how bad their season is. As a brand they're like Coca Cola, the places they put their logo seems unimportant - so long as it's everywhere
I think as long as they're safely in the upper 50% of constructors, they will remain and keep seeking new routes back to the glory days.Is there a reason you think they would fail miserably? If they can just get through a season without 12 DNF's this year it could be said they have progressed. And the Honda engine, it already is proven to be more reliable statistically. With the old setup I don't think there was ever a period of smooth running equivalent to even half of what they managed in testing. I don't think there was any indication it's not as capable power-wise as the Renault unit was either. I'd be pretty surprised if they don't end up 3rd overall again this season.
Re RB leaving, their current Concord Agreement commits them until the end of 2020, and their partnership with Honda is also for the same period. I know contracts are 'easy' to break if there's a will to do it, but why bother for the sake of one year when they have an easy out at the end of 2020? Combine that with Horner's wittering in the press today about how F1 has to make itself attractive to them with the 2021 rules or else they'll leave and you get... probably nothing at the moment. I'm sure they'll disappear at some point, but not quite yet.
thegreenhell said:
Re RB leaving, their current Concord Agreement commits them until the end of 2020, and their partnership with Honda is also for the same period. I know contracts are 'easy' to break if there's a will to do it, but why bother for the sake of one year when they have an easy out at the end of 2020? Combine that with Horner's wittering in the press today about how F1 has to make itself attractive to them with the 2021 rules or else they'll leave and you get... probably nothing at the moment. I'm sure they'll disappear at some point, but not quite yet.
It's so hard to read. For all we know, the team may secretly have no intention to even consider leaving the sport. They would still say they were considering it in an effort to influence decisions about the future of the sport. 2021 could also be excellent for them as the budget cap should be less significant to them relative to the other two of the 'top three' teams. No matter how much they might still complain about it.
This is the thing about RB (basically Christian), they're very vocal and complain a lot. About everything. But they're spending a level of money that entirely tallies with their position in constructors championships, and 3rd is really not a bad result, it's not as if they're putting in an embarrassing performance or struggling to make headlines for the brand - if anything they excel at making headlines! I fail to see what they don't get from the sport today that they originally wanted/expected when they joined in 2005. Sure the golden years were really great for them, but did they really expect that success when they first decided to get involved?
Can't see a close battle between Mercedes and Ferrari. Not like last year anyway. I reckon Ferrari have things under control pace wise. Their car looked so easy to drive in Barcelona and let's not ignore Pirreli's datas... Ferrari are well ahead.
Let's just hope that Hamilton can bang a few wonder laps for pole.
Lecler has no chance, Ferrari are behind Vettel this year.
Let's just hope that Hamilton can bang a few wonder laps for pole.
Lecler has no chance, Ferrari are behind Vettel this year.
E34-3.2 said:
Can't see a close battle between Mercedes and Ferrari. Not like last year anyway. I reckon Ferrari have things under control pace wise. Their car looked so easy to drive in Barcelona and let's not ignore Pirreli's datas... Ferrari are well ahead.
Let's just hope that Hamilton can bang a few wonder laps for pole.
Lecler has no chance, Ferrari are behind Vettel this year.
They've both spent enough money to have looked into just about every avenue of potential performance this season. And the formula is mature now, so I really struggle to believe that they won't be close. History tells us that they should be. As for being well ahead when you factor in the tyre advantage etc.. We don't know how hard Mercedes were really pushing. If they don't want to reveal their true pace, they only have to allow their drivers to push to within a second or so and then simply ask them if they had another second they could have given.Let's just hope that Hamilton can bang a few wonder laps for pole.
Lecler has no chance, Ferrari are behind Vettel this year.
TheDeuce said:
They've both spent enough money to have looked into just about every avenue of potential performance this season. And the formula is mature now, so I really struggle to believe that they won't be close. History tells us that they should be. As for being well ahead when you factor in the tyre advantage etc.. We don't know how hard Mercedes were really pushing. If they don't want to reveal their true pace, they only have to allow their drivers to push to within a second or so and then simply ask them if they had another second they could have given.
I hope that you are right but the body language of some people at Mercedes doesn't feel right at all. Fingers crossed! E34-3.2 said:
I hope that you are right but the body language of some people at Mercedes doesn't feel right at all. Fingers crossed!
I would be surprised if I'm not right.. But of course, who knows Either team could come undone in some way as the season starts in full. Or it's possible there could simply be an unusually big and hard to explain performance gap.
I suppose it hardly matters. It should be close, and being close will make it exciting in one way. But if there was a problem at Mercedes then that drama itself would lead to a different type of excitement. Even if Ferrari did walk to victory this season, there is more than enough going on across the other teams to make for plenty of drama.
I haven't been as keen or curious about the first race weekend of the season for years.
Leclerc will not be allowed to challenge Vettel this season. From race 1 it's going to be number 1 and number 2 scenario in Vettel's favour.
The current Number 2 will be told he has plenty of chance to be Number 1 when Vettel leaves the team (unless he's replaced by Hamilton, of course...).
This season, following 2 missed opportunities, Ferrari will more than ever try to avoid costing Vettel points by giving the number 2 driver a sniff.
The current Number 2 will be told he has plenty of chance to be Number 1 when Vettel leaves the team (unless he's replaced by Hamilton, of course...).
This season, following 2 missed opportunities, Ferrari will more than ever try to avoid costing Vettel points by giving the number 2 driver a sniff.
Vettel will convert his early car advantage into the perfect weekend and thus will start to build breaks and ominous momentum V8 era Red Bull style. Leclerc will play ball because Ferrari have promised him his fairytale. He’ll make a couple of small mistakes early in the season anyway, similar to the start of last year.
A rattled Hamilton will struggle to dial in the W10 over the weekend and will have his hands full with his on-form team mate and the Red Bulls.
Hulkenberg will come 6th and a Haas will separate him from Ricciardo.
There’ll be a point for Raikkonen.
Leclerc will only have to wait until Bahrain for his first win.
The question this season over the long term will once again be: Can Hamilton and Mercedes diffuse and dismantle Vettel's momentum again this season?
A rattled Hamilton will struggle to dial in the W10 over the weekend and will have his hands full with his on-form team mate and the Red Bulls.
Hulkenberg will come 6th and a Haas will separate him from Ricciardo.
There’ll be a point for Raikkonen.
Leclerc will only have to wait until Bahrain for his first win.
The question this season over the long term will once again be: Can Hamilton and Mercedes diffuse and dismantle Vettel's momentum again this season?
janesmith1950 said:
Leclerc will not be allowed to challenge Vettel this season. From race 1 it's going to be number 1 and number 2 scenario in Vettel's favour.
I suspect the only chance CL has is if he can somehow build a decent lead over SV within the first few races, which is unlikely. I'm sure Vettel will also have mentally regrouped sufficiently for the season ahead, but might find himself under a lot of pressure from LH and CL.I'm looking forward to Sunday but it will only be highlights for me this season .
Personally hoping that things get mixed up a bit and I think the whole sport needs it too .
Mercedes have won 74 of the 100 GP's over the last 5 years , great for them and their fans but dull for neutrals and new followers to understand .
It appears Mr Brawn is trying to sort things out in 2021 but I feel that the next 2 years need to be less predictive to act as a spring board for the new rules , otherwise the old and new fans will start drifting off , never to return .
My hunch/prediction for this season , the PH pantomime villian , Max Verstappen will finish in the top 3 by the end of the season and Vettel will win the championship
Personally hoping that things get mixed up a bit and I think the whole sport needs it too .
Mercedes have won 74 of the 100 GP's over the last 5 years , great for them and their fans but dull for neutrals and new followers to understand .
It appears Mr Brawn is trying to sort things out in 2021 but I feel that the next 2 years need to be less predictive to act as a spring board for the new rules , otherwise the old and new fans will start drifting off , never to return .
My hunch/prediction for this season , the PH pantomime villian , Max Verstappen will finish in the top 3 by the end of the season and Vettel will win the championship
I am very surprised that so many believe that somehow Ferrari have this championship in the bag. The mental strength of Lewis alone is worth a lot more than a handful of points. Whilst clearly not as fast as Lewis, I think Valteri adds strength to the team by simply pulling in the same direction.
If LeClerc is as good as everyone suspects, then that vital equilibrium could be broken at Ferrari - think McLaren 2007 and Mercedes 2014/15/16 and 17.
Add to this, Mercedes’ stability of personnel, reliability of its PUs and it’s ability to develop its cars over a season and I would still be inclined to bet on them.
Put simply, they know how to win a championship. Red Bull also have this culture, but I doubt that Honda have somehow leapfrogged Renault over the winter and so reliability will once again be their Achilles heel to accruing big points.
Having said that, I do believe that we have the potential for a great season, so - bring it on!
If LeClerc is as good as everyone suspects, then that vital equilibrium could be broken at Ferrari - think McLaren 2007 and Mercedes 2014/15/16 and 17.
Add to this, Mercedes’ stability of personnel, reliability of its PUs and it’s ability to develop its cars over a season and I would still be inclined to bet on them.
Put simply, they know how to win a championship. Red Bull also have this culture, but I doubt that Honda have somehow leapfrogged Renault over the winter and so reliability will once again be their Achilles heel to accruing big points.
Having said that, I do believe that we have the potential for a great season, so - bring it on!
rdjohn said:
I am very surprised that so many believe that somehow Ferrari have this championship in the bag. The mental strength of Lewis alone is worth a lot more than a handful of points. Whilst clearly not as fast as Lewis, I think Valteri adds strength to the team by simply pulling in the same direction.
If LeClerc is as good as everyone suspects, then that vital equilibrium could be broken at Ferrari - think McLaren 2007 and Mercedes 2014/15/16 and 17.
Add to this, Mercedes’ stability of personnel, reliability of its PUs and it’s ability to develop its cars over a season and I would still be inclined to bet on them.
Put simply, they know how to win a championship. Red Bull also have this culture, but I doubt that Honda have somehow leapfrogged Renault over the winter and so reliability will once again be their Achilles heel to accruing big points.
Having said that, I do believe that we have the potential for a great season, so - bring it on!
I'd agree with all of that. Hamilton might be a tad annoying, repeating the same lines at every single one of those wins... But he got them because he's an excellent racer and driver, and very, very composed and stable. That alone over the course of a season counts for a tangible advantage. And reliability, and team culture etc etc. If LeClerc is as good as everyone suspects, then that vital equilibrium could be broken at Ferrari - think McLaren 2007 and Mercedes 2014/15/16 and 17.
Add to this, Mercedes’ stability of personnel, reliability of its PUs and it’s ability to develop its cars over a season and I would still be inclined to bet on them.
Put simply, they know how to win a championship. Red Bull also have this culture, but I doubt that Honda have somehow leapfrogged Renault over the winter and so reliability will once again be their Achilles heel to accruing big points.
Having said that, I do believe that we have the potential for a great season, so - bring it on!
I can't pretend to know how the CLC and SV relationship will play out, but it's clear that vettel now has to keep one eye on that as well as keep his head in the game to beat Hamilton.
And I even agree that the honda/RB thing whilst certainly promising doesn't give any reason to believe honda have now lept ahead. I'd love it if them and Renault were extremely close though! A battle for 1st/2nd between the top two teams and a separate battle between Renault and RB? I'll take that!
Edited by TheDeuce on Tuesday 12th March 17:24
HustleRussell said:
Vettel will convert his early car advantage into the perfect weekend and thus will start to build breaks and ominous momentum V8 era Red Bull style. Leclerc will play ball because Ferrari have promised him his fairytale. He’ll make a couple of small mistakes early in the season anyway, similar to the start of last year.
A rattled Hamilton will struggle to dial in the W10 over the weekend and will have his hands full with his on-form team mate and the Red Bulls.
Hulkenberg will come 6th and a Haas will separate him from Ricciardo.
There’ll be a point for Raikkonen.
Leclerc will only have to wait until Bahrain for his first win.
The question this season over the long term will once again be: Can Hamilton and Mercedes diffuse and dismantle Vettel's momentum again this season?
I think you are pretty much 100% with this prediction.A rattled Hamilton will struggle to dial in the W10 over the weekend and will have his hands full with his on-form team mate and the Red Bulls.
Hulkenberg will come 6th and a Haas will separate him from Ricciardo.
There’ll be a point for Raikkonen.
Leclerc will only have to wait until Bahrain for his first win.
The question this season over the long term will once again be: Can Hamilton and Mercedes diffuse and dismantle Vettel's momentum again this season?
I do not believe Mercedes will be successful in overcoming Vettel again this year. The change of management at Ferrari will make the difference.
If you wanted to win a championship in the past you needed to win 6/7 races.. and finish relatively strong in the remainders.
If you want to win a championship against Lewis Hamilton however you need to win 10/11 races, and hope for a bit of bad luck on Lewis side.
There's no one on the grid capable of winning 11 races in a season apart from Lewis in that Merc, and that’s exactly what they will do manage the engine/s to 11 races wins.
If you want to win a championship against Lewis Hamilton however you need to win 10/11 races, and hope for a bit of bad luck on Lewis side.
There's no one on the grid capable of winning 11 races in a season apart from Lewis in that Merc, and that’s exactly what they will do manage the engine/s to 11 races wins.
Gassing Station | Formula 1 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff