The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

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slipstream 1985

12,220 posts

179 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
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Mercs only concern of not taking ocon now is that their main competitor teams new up and coming drivers will be 6 seasons and at least 3 seasons in max and leclerc before they get a potential young up and commer in.

MissChief

7,107 posts

168 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
quotequote all
slipstream 1985 said:
Mercs only concern of not taking ocon now is that their main competitor teams new up and coming drivers will be 6 seasons and at least 3 seasons in max and leclerc before they get a potential young up and commer in.
He could easily drive for Mercedes later, Both lewis and Valtteri aren't getting any younger.

slipstream 1985

12,220 posts

179 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
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MissChief said:
slipstream 1985 said:
Mercs only concern of not taking ocon now is that their main competitor teams new up and coming drivers will be 6 seasons and at least 3 seasons in max and leclerc before they get a potential young up and commer in.
He could easily drive for Mercedes later, Both lewis and Valtteri aren't getting any younger.
I agree but I suspect mercedes ethos of tiny little differences adding up , puting a new driver in when their big competitors have established new fast blood used to the cars and teams way of working will make a difference.

TheDeuce

21,545 posts

66 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
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slipstream 1985 said:
MissChief said:
slipstream 1985 said:
Mercs only concern of not taking ocon now is that their main competitor teams new up and coming drivers will be 6 seasons and at least 3 seasons in max and leclerc before they get a potential young up and commer in.
He could easily drive for Mercedes later, Both lewis and Valtteri aren't getting any younger.
I agree but I suspect mercedes ethos of tiny little differences adding up , puting a new driver in when their big competitors have established new fast blood used to the cars and teams way of working will make a difference.
I kind of agree with both of you.

Mercedes do like incremental change and evolution, but they have also got the resources to easily sign up any driver on the grid post 2020. With the incoming budget cap one of the few unregulated areas of spending is going to be driver pay - and lets just say that they will be saving at lease £200,000,000 on their current F1 budget so they can afford whoever they want, whenever - assuming they stay in F1 at all of course.

I can see Max at Mercedes if they do remain in the sport and want to continue their performance. I can't put my finger on why he fit's exactly, but somehow I can very easily picture him at Mercedes and also I can imagine him taking the next/final stage in his development there. He's not as complete as LH but he's certainly as natural of talent when it comes to getting pace. I can't think of anyone else as close to LH in terms of natural ability. Maybe DR... but somehow between the two I think Max would work out best. That's a close call indeed though.

thegreenhell

15,328 posts

219 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
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Mark Hughes today put forward three possible scenarios that could explain the Bottas decision, beyond mere fear of change:

1 - They believe that George Russell has the most potential, so they are just in a holding pattern for another year while he gets more experience in F1;

2 - They have signed Max for 2021, by which time Lewis will almost certainly have matched Schumacher's 7 WDC record, and will then have one final showdown with the best of the new generation before he retires; or

3 - Mercedes will quit the sport at the end of next year.

slipstream 1985

12,220 posts

179 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
quotequote all
thegreenhell said:
Mark Hughes today put forward three possible scenarios that could explain the Bottas decision, beyond mere fear of change:

1 - They believe that George Russell has the most potential, so they are just in a holding pattern for another year while he gets more experience in F1;

2 - They have signed Max for 2021, by which time Lewis will almost certainly have matched Schumacher's 7 WDC record, and will then have one final showdown with the best of the new generation before he retires; or

3 - Mercedes will quit the sport at the end of next year.
Yes I thought of number 3 as well. if the they are in it for the short term then the bottas decesion makes sense.

angrymoby

2,613 posts

178 months

Thursday 29th August 2019
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if i were Max i'd be tempted to stay put & see what Newey comes up with in 2021 & ground effect ...especially as Honda also seem to be on the up

TheDeuce

21,545 posts

66 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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slipstream 1985 said:
thegreenhell said:
Mark Hughes today put forward three possible scenarios that could explain the Bottas decision, beyond mere fear of change:

1 - They believe that George Russell has the most potential, so they are just in a holding pattern for another year while he gets more experience in F1;

2 - They have signed Max for 2021, by which time Lewis will almost certainly have matched Schumacher's 7 WDC record, and will then have one final showdown with the best of the new generation before he retires; or

3 - Mercedes will quit the sport at the end of next year.
Yes I thought of number 3 as well. if the they are in it for the short term then the bottas decesion makes sense.
And Toto has been linked with ambitions to stop being TP and move to a position within FOM. To be fair he has played down such rumours, but then.. he would have too.

The reason I find it all vaguely believable that they may quit the sport is that it's the best possible time for them to quit - they can't sustain this winning streak forever and in the end the only way is down. Why wait for that day to come? Especially with the 2021 shake up on the horizon, which could make life very difficult for a team as huge as they are today.

I'm not saying I can't see them continue, they may well do. But if they were to quit then for several reasons it would make sense to me.

768

13,677 posts

96 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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TheDeuce said:
The reason I find it all vaguely believable that they may quit the sport is that it's the best possible time for them to quit - they can't sustain this winning streak forever and in the end the only way is down. Why wait for that day to come?
Because until it does, they're on quite the winning streak?

I'm not sure finishing second would be a good reason to quit either and I actually think it would reflect quite poorly on them if they did just walk away. It would show a lack of competitive spirit, give uncertainty to all those families and presumably the reason they entered F1 doesn't just go away, if they were to ever want to get back whatever they joined F1 for in the first place it would be from a more difficult position, again.

Just switch the brand name to Smart if it starts to go badly. smile

HighwayStar

4,257 posts

144 months

Friday 30th August 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
slipstream 1985 said:
thegreenhell said:
Mark Hughes today put forward three possible scenarios that could explain the Bottas decision, beyond mere fear of change:

1 - They believe that George Russell has the most potential, so they are just in a holding pattern for another year while he gets more experience in F1;

2 - They have signed Max for 2021, by which time Lewis will almost certainly have matched Schumacher's 7 WDC record, and will then have one final showdown with the best of the new generation before he retires; or

3 - Mercedes will quit the sport at the end of next year.
Yes I thought of number 3 as well. if the they are in it for the short term then the bottas decesion makes sense.
And Toto has been linked with ambitions to stop being TP and move to a position within FOM. To be fair he has played down such rumours, but then.. he would have too.

The reason I find it all vaguely believable that they may quit the sport is that it's the best possible time for them to quit - they can't sustain this winning streak forever and in the end the only way is down. Why wait for that day to come? Especially with the 2021 shake up on the horizon, which could make life very difficult for a team as huge as they are today.

I'm not saying I can't see them continue, they may well do. But if they were to quit then for several reasons it would make sense to me.
Not forgetting Toto owns 30% of the team... His contract is to the end of 2020 so clearly there are major decisions to be made.

https://www.mercedesamgf1.com/en/mercedes-amg-f1/a...

bobbo89

5,211 posts

145 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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This talk of Mercedes potentially quitting F1. I find it unlikely myself but if they were to just quit, would they be able to find a buyer for the team or would they just wind everything up? It'd be a good team for someone to buy but it certainly wouldn't come cheap!

Norfolkit

2,394 posts

190 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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So, has Ocon left the "Merc family" or is he on loan?

HighwayStar

4,257 posts

144 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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bobbo89 said:
This talk of Mercedes potentially quitting F1. I find it unlikely myself but if they were to just quit, would they be able to find a buyer for the team or would they just wind everything up? It'd be a good team for someone to buy but it certainly wouldn't come cheap!
I can't see them quitting before 2021, I don't see Lewis going before then either. New rules, new cars, engines.... it's a new challenge.

Deesee

8,420 posts

83 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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Norfolkit said:
So, has Ocon left the "Merc family" or is he on loan?
Loan and Merc are paying the bills.

bobbo89

5,211 posts

145 months

Friday 30th August 2019
quotequote all
HighwayStar said:
I can't see them quitting before 2021, I don't see Lewis going before then either. New rules, new cars, engines.... it's a new challenge.
Completely agree, they'll already be working on the 2021 car and I'm sure they'll be hoping to dominate again as they did at the start of the hybrid era.

HighwayStar

4,257 posts

144 months

Friday 30th August 2019
quotequote all
bobbo89 said:
HighwayStar said:
I can't see them quitting before 2021, I don't see Lewis going before then either. New rules, new cars, engines.... it's a new challenge.
Completely agree, they'll already be working on the 2021 car and I'm sure they'll be hoping to dominate again as they did at the start of the hybrid era.
I think most of the team will already have an operation/silo set up looking at 2021 so Merc would be less likely to have a head start similar to that of the hybrid era. Racing could be closer from the get go... well we can hope eh

kiseca

9,339 posts

219 months

Friday 30th August 2019
quotequote all
HighwayStar said:
TheDeuce said:
slipstream 1985 said:
thegreenhell said:
Mark Hughes today put forward three possible scenarios that could explain the Bottas decision, beyond mere fear of change:

1 - They believe that George Russell has the most potential, so they are just in a holding pattern for another year while he gets more experience in F1;

2 - They have signed Max for 2021, by which time Lewis will almost certainly have matched Schumacher's 7 WDC record, and will then have one final showdown with the best of the new generation before he retires; or

3 - Mercedes will quit the sport at the end of next year.
Yes I thought of number 3 as well. if the they are in it for the short term then the bottas decesion makes sense.
And Toto has been linked with ambitions to stop being TP and move to a position within FOM. To be fair he has played down such rumours, but then.. he would have too.

The reason I find it all vaguely believable that they may quit the sport is that it's the best possible time for them to quit - they can't sustain this winning streak forever and in the end the only way is down. Why wait for that day to come? Especially with the 2021 shake up on the horizon, which could make life very difficult for a team as huge as they are today.

I'm not saying I can't see them continue, they may well do. But if they were to quit then for several reasons it would make sense to me.
Not forgetting Toto owns 30% of the team... His contract is to the end of 2020 so clearly there are major decisions to be made.

https://www.mercedesamgf1.com/en/mercedes-amg-f1/a...
Maybe it's more simple than that.. maybe their only two real choices were Bottas and Ocon for whatever reasons, and of those two, they believe, like many on here, that Ocon hasn't actually really stood out so far and Bottas is the better driver, or they believe that Bottas is a known quantity and not worth risking changing the existing relationships for a driver who hasn't already proven to be better and could well be slower as well as more disruptive.

Russell, right now, is still too much of an unknown and I don't think he had much chance of unseating Bottas this season.

TheDeuce

21,545 posts

66 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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Turns out Albon hasn't wasted any time showing up Gasly's efforts in that red bull..

anonymous-user

54 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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TheDeuce said:
Turns out Albon hasn't wasted any time showing up Gasly's efforts in that red bull..
It's only practice but that was a very good start. Hopefully, he remains that close before taking his grid penalty.

At the back, it must be soul-destroying for Kubica to be outpaced by Latifi depending on if he had any issues.

Again practice but not a good sign.

Latifi and Russell at Willaims in 2020?

Kvyat ahead of Gasly as well.

anonymous-user

54 months

Friday 30th August 2019
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kiseca said:
Do you think, for instance, if Max could be convinced to swap to Mercedes, and the finances of having two top drivers added up, they wouldn't put him alongside Lewis?

I know many think Lewis will throw his toys out of the cot, but fact is he hasn't in the past shown any intent to block any driver from being his team mate, and frankly I think most are confusing Lewis with Senna or Schumacher with this particular trait.

I can't believe for 1 minute that Mercedes would rather have Max beating Lewis in a Red Bull than in a Mercedes, even with the management complications it brings.

Same goes for any other driver, but Max as an example seems most likely to give Lewis a headache. Maybe Ricciardo, and he may well actually be an easier target that Mercedes have passed on.

Lewis has never expressed any concern over who his team mate is. So I don't agree it's quite likely at all.
There is no chance in hell that Hamilton would allow Verstappen, Ricciardo or Alonso in the 2nd Mercedes.

Hamilton knows he can state he doesn't care about his teammate as he knows Mercedes will never have another situation like Rosberg again.

This is why Bottas is perfect. He is not going to bother Hamilton over a full season and is fast enough to get the extra points.

Only once Hamilton retires will another top driver have a chance at Mercedes if the team continues.