The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

[vaud]

I didn't used to like Steiner (I don't think he came across well in the Netflix documentary as a leader) but I've warmed to him this year.

[StevenB]

Williams using the merc. engine (sorry power unit ….) for a while yet

https://www.williamsf1.com/racing/news/2019/09/pow...

Deesee said:

MissChief said:

Deesee said:

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Two ex McLaren young drivers no?

When McL are running Merc power next year...

If they are going to be running Merc power next season, which I doubt, they'd have known about it internally since the beginning of the year at least so all the design, CFD, building, curing, refining etc can be done and the parts signed off. If it is the case, why hasn't it been announced yet? A deal of this magnitude?

Not to mention the Renault deal is apparently for three years.

While Eddie Jordan may be right, (basically he spouts a lot of st and some of it sticks so he's seen as some sort of clairvoyant), to break yet another engine contract early and all that entails in terms of compensation to Renault, for a Mercedes engine next year? I highly, highly doubt it.

If there is likely to be any break from Renault it'll be for the 2021 season as McLaren will have then had two years with Renault who may then be far more amenable to a split and the compensation is likely to be far, far lower. It may even have been a two year deal with optional third year when the deal was signed early last year. We just don't know.

Sticking my neck out, but not by much IMO, McLaren will be Renault powered again next season.

Called the Merc deal on here before Eddie! Anyway its only what I've heard...

The main reason being suggested is that Williams will not run a Merc Gearbox as per Racing Point (as Merc have requested), and Renault will allow them to run their own gearbox, so a switcharoo is possible and will suit all parties.

[MissChief]

StevenB said:

Williams using the merc. engine (sorry power unit ….) for a while yet

https://www.williamsf1.com/racing/news/2019/09/pow...

Deesee said:

MissChief said:

Deesee said:

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Two ex McLaren young drivers no?

When McL are running Merc power next year...

If they are going to be running Merc power next season, which I doubt, they'd have known about it internally since the beginning of the year at least so all the design, CFD, building, curing, refining etc can be done and the parts signed off. If it is the case, why hasn't it been announced yet? A deal of this magnitude?

Not to mention the Renault deal is apparently for three years.

While Eddie Jordan may be right, (basically he spouts a lot of st and some of it sticks so he's seen as some sort of clairvoyant), to break yet another engine contract early and all that entails in terms of compensation to Renault, for a Mercedes engine next year? I highly, highly doubt it.

If there is likely to be any break from Renault it'll be for the 2021 season as McLaren will have then had two years with Renault who may then be far more amenable to a split and the compensation is likely to be far, far lower. It may even have been a two year deal with optional third year when the deal was signed early last year. We just don't know.

Sticking my neck out, but not by much IMO, McLaren will be Renault powered again next season.

Called the Merc deal on here before Eddie! Anyway its only what I've heard...

The main reason being suggested is that Williams will not run a Merc Gearbox as per Racing Point (as Merc have requested), and Renault will allow them to run their own gearbox, so a switcharoo is possible and will suit all parties.

Mercedes won't want to power four teams so that seems to squash any chance of McLaren running Mercedes engines, at least for several years. The only way I could see it is if Racing Point change but I can't see that they'd be minded to. Unless they get a much cheaper deal from Honda or Renault.

[andburg]

dont think it matters as much these days Honda/Renault are much closer to Merc.
The Ferrari engine is now the one to have

[Evangelion]

If a McLaren Renault can beat a works Renault, what's a McLaren Mercedes going to do?

Unlike some of you, I can remember the dark days of 1988, when McLaren won every race but one (and would have won that if Senna hadn't been taken off). So be careful what you wish for ..

[kiseca]

Evangelion said:

If a McLaren Renault can beat a works Renault, what's a McLaren Mercedes going to do?

Unlike some of you, I can remember the dark days of 1988, when McLaren won every race but one (and would have won that if Senna hadn't been taken off). So be careful what you wish for ..

Unlikely, as Senna was nursing the car home low on fuel and the Ferraris were catching him faster than he was getting to the chequered flag, so Senna definitely still had the hard work to do to get that win, at the time he crashed.

But that's a footnote, I get your point about the dominance.

[HustleRussell]

Evangelion said:

If a McLaren Renault can beat a works Renault, what's a McLaren Mercedes going to do?

Beat a works Renault by a margin?

Mercedes the race team aren't going to be beaten by McLaren. If Mercedes signed a deal to supply the improving McLaren team with engines, I would interpret that as Mercedes' first step towards the door as a race entry- they have swept all before them, and now they can revert to their previous comfortable position of being an engine manufacturer and let the race team go.

[Teddy Lop]

HustleRussell said:

Evangelion said:

If a McLaren Renault can beat a works Renault, what's a McLaren Mercedes going to do?

Beat a works Renault by a margin?

Mercedes the race team aren't going to be beaten by McLaren. If Mercedes signed a deal to supply the improving McLaren team with engines, I would interpret that as Mercedes' first step towards the door as a race entry- they have swept all before them, and now they can revert to their previous comfortable position of being an engine manufacturer and let the race team go.

the "works renault team" isn't actually that great right now, as demonstrated by the RB-renault. I expect a mcmerc would be a bit better but probably no better than a secure 4th or sniffing at 3rd. But I suppose for mercedes McLaren would be seen as more of a potential threat going forwards than Williams or racing point, as they are resurgent and the shakeup effect of rule changes is due shortly.

Although with all the Alonso rumouring going on right now they might be due another drop...

[Deesee]

MissChief said:

StevenB said:

Williams using the merc. engine (sorry power unit ….) for a while yet

https://www.williamsf1.com/racing/news/2019/09/pow...

Deesee said:

MissChief said:

Deesee said:

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Two ex McLaren young drivers no?

When McL are running Merc power next year...

If they are going to be running Merc power next season, which I doubt, they'd have known about it internally since the beginning of the year at least so all the design, CFD, building, curing, refining etc can be done and the parts signed off. If it is the case, why hasn't it been announced yet? A deal of this magnitude?

Not to mention the Renault deal is apparently for three years.

While Eddie Jordan may be right, (basically he spouts a lot of st and some of it sticks so he's seen as some sort of clairvoyant), to break yet another engine contract early and all that entails in terms of compensation to Renault, for a Mercedes engine next year? I highly, highly doubt it.

If there is likely to be any break from Renault it'll be for the 2021 season as McLaren will have then had two years with Renault who may then be far more amenable to a split and the compensation is likely to be far, far lower. It may even have been a two year deal with optional third year when the deal was signed early last year. We just don't know.

Sticking my neck out, but not by much IMO, McLaren will be Renault powered again next season.

Called the Merc deal on here before Eddie! Anyway its only what I've heard...

The main reason being suggested is that Williams will not run a Merc Gearbox as per Racing Point (as Merc have requested), and Renault will allow them to run their own gearbox, so a switcharoo is possible and will suit all parties.

Mercedes won't want to power four teams so that seems to squash any chance of McLaren running Mercedes engines, at least for several years. The only way I could see it is if Racing Point change but I can't see that they'd be minded to. Unless they get a much cheaper deal from Honda or Renault.

It’s a surprise as Merc really want to run the Merc gearbox with the PU.

Mercs are surprisingly the cheaper PU option on the grid estimated at 6 mill a unit, Renaults are 8 mill a unit.

There have been whispers of a new entry next year, I think that if there is it will be 2021/2022 than 2020.

Can’t see racing point changing.. but this is F1..

[Flooble]

Just out of interest, why would an engine manufacturer not want to support four teams (or five, or six)?

Presumably most of the time cost and effort is in R&D, actually producing the engines (and running them) is relatively trivial by comparison. Having more teams means more data and more opportunity to experiment (as per Ferrari using Haas and Alfa as sacrificial test mules at Spa).

So what's the reason Mercedes wouldn't be happy to see everyone running their engines?

[MartG]

Flooble said:

Just out of interest, why would an engine manufacturer not want to support four teams (or five, or six)?

Presumably most of the time cost and effort is in R&D, actually producing the engines (and running them) is relatively trivial by comparison. Having more teams means more data and more opportunity to experiment (as per Ferrari using Haas and Alfa as sacrificial test mules at Spa).

So what's the reason Mercedes wouldn't be happy to see everyone running their engines?

Production capacity perhaps ? Increasing the number of engines supplied may require a costly expansion of their manufacturing facility and the hiring of more staff

[TheDeuce]

MartG said:

Flooble said:

Just out of interest, why would an engine manufacturer not want to support four teams (or five, or six)?

Presumably most of the time cost and effort is in R&D, actually producing the engines (and running them) is relatively trivial by comparison. Having more teams means more data and more opportunity to experiment (as per Ferrari using Haas and Alfa as sacrificial test mules at Spa).

So what's the reason Mercedes wouldn't be happy to see everyone running their engines?

Production capacity perhaps ? Increasing the number of engines supplied may require a costly expansion of their manufacturing facility and the hiring of more staff

It's an interesting question. I suppose it's more down to teams limiting the risk of too much comparable competition? IE It's better to compete with two teams using the Merc PU than three perhaps? - Which would result in a self regulating system where PU's are generally evenly spread.

I can't believe it has anything much to do with production capacity given that once designed and tested, the production of these units is basically automated at a machining level, and hooking it all up by hand can only take so long. I'm sure that if a fourth team wanted an engine, and the manufacturer wanted them to have it, then actually producing an extra few units wouldn't be a game changer at a production level.

I think Mercedes might be perfectly happy to see everyone using their PU's, but the teams like McLaren probably think it might be more impressive to beat Renault with Renault PU, than to take the Merc PU and never have a chance of beating the manufacturer team with it. It probably is a case of teams choosing which battles they want to fight for maximum PR value.

[MissChief]

TheDeuce said:

MartG said:

Flooble said:

Just out of interest, why would an engine manufacturer not want to support four teams (or five, or six)?

Presumably most of the time cost and effort is in R&D, actually producing the engines (and running them) is relatively trivial by comparison. Having more teams means more data and more opportunity to experiment (as per Ferrari using Haas and Alfa as sacrificial test mules at Spa).

So what's the reason Mercedes wouldn't be happy to see everyone running their engines?

Production capacity perhaps ? Increasing the number of engines supplied may require a costly expansion of their manufacturing facility and the hiring of more staff

It's an interesting question. I suppose it's more down to teams limiting the risk of too much comparable competition? IE It's better to compete with two teams using the Merc PU than three perhaps? - Which would result in a self regulating system where PU's are generally evenly spread.

I can't believe it has anything much to do with production capacity given that once designed and tested, the production of these units is basically automated at a machining level, and hooking it all up by hand can only take so long. I'm sure that if a fourth team wanted an engine, and the manufacturer wanted them to have it, then actually producing an extra few units wouldn't be a game changer at a production level.

I think Mercedes might be perfectly happy to see everyone using their PU's, but the teams like McLaren probably think it might be more impressive to beat Renault with Renault PU, than to take the Merc PU and never have a chance of beating the manufacturer team with it. It probably is a case of teams choosing which battles they want to fight for maximum PR value.

Extra cost is the main one. More staff specifically considering the turnaround some weeks they may not be able to service, check and rebuild the engines quickly enough without extra staff and premises.

Thinking back to Honda only powering McLaren in 2016, Ferrari still ran four teams, themselves, Haas, Toro Rosso and Sauber, Renault ran themselves and Red Bull (rebadged) and Mercedes ran Williams, Manor, Force India and Manor. Running four teams is certainly possible but I doubt they'd want to go beyond that.

When Manor dropped out in 2017 Mercedes dropped to three teams, Renault pushed along three teams (Toro Rosso's and Red Bull's engines were rebadged) and Ferrari ran three teams as well although Sauber ran year old engines.

While teams could run with four teams I don't believe they'd want to at the moment. Nor should they need to with four Engine manufacturers.

[thegreenhell]

No manufacturer is allowed to supply more than four teams anyway.

[TheDeuce]

thegreenhell said:

No manufacturer is allowed to supply more than four teams anyway.

Does that mean five customer teams + their own? I ask because technically the engine manufacturer is technically split from the F1 team itself, so 'their own' team could be seen as a team they supply.

[TheDeuce]

MissChief said:

Extra cost is the main one. More staff specifically considering the turnaround some weeks they may not be able to service, check and rebuild the engines quickly enough without extra staff and premises.

Surely such costs would be offset by the fact they would be selling more PU's though? I would have thought per unit the suppliers costs would drop quite significantly, as the R&D and tooling costs associated with designing and improving the PU remain the same regardless of how many units are produced.

[Europa1]

TheDeuce said:

Does that mean five customer teams + their own? I ask because technically the engine manufacturer is technically split from the F1 team itself, so 'their own' team could be seen as a team they supply.

Ummmmmm.....

[thegreenhell]

TheDeuce said:

thegreenhell said:

No manufacturer is allowed to supply more than four teams anyway.

Does that mean five customer teams + their own? I ask because technically the engine manufacturer is technically split from the F1 team itself, so 'their own' team could be seen as a team they supply.

Four teams, regardless.

There's actually a calculation they use: number of teams divided by number of engine manufacturers, plus one, rounded up to the next integer. So, (10÷4)+1=3.5 means four teams. There would therefore need to be thirteen teams before anyone could supply five, assuming still four engine manufacturers.

[TheDeuce]

thegreenhell said:

Four teams, regardless.

There's actually a calculation they use: number of teams divided by number of engine manufacturers, plus one, rounded up to the next integer. So, (10÷4)+1=3.5 means four teams. There would therefore need to be thirteen teams before anyone could supply five, assuming still four engine manufacturers.

Interesting, thanks for the reply. I'd never really considered the rules in this area before.

[vaud]

There is a caveat to that rule that no team could be left without a supplier, and so the FIA can mandate a manufacturer to supply an additional team, IIRC.