The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

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Vaud

Original Poster:

50,290 posts

154 months

Monday 19th August 2019
quotequote all
kiseca said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Too good no one wants him.

He would give any main driver in a top team a very hard time and this is why the main teams want to protect their main driver.

...
That makes no sense to me. Why would any Formula 1 team want to protect their current driver by keeping a faster driver out of their car?

Advantages of signing the better driver:
1) They will get better results
2) The better driver doesn't join another team and become their competition

Disadvantages of signing the better driver:
???
Many reasons:

  • Hiring an Alonso (by example) might get your short term points but require epic amounts of management bandwidth to keep things "on track" within the team.
  • Who is the future? Are you planning for 2019? Or a 5 year campaign? Alonso might be good for the latter part of the season but not if it pulls the team apart.
Teams do think of the year in hand, but with the advantage of big backing, can also take a longer view.

Big Nanas

1,341 posts

83 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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I'd imagine Alonso's pay demands would be beyond many teams.

kiseca

9,339 posts

218 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
Vaud said:
kiseca said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Too good no one wants him.

He would give any main driver in a top team a very hard time and this is why the main teams want to protect their main driver.

...
That makes no sense to me. Why would any Formula 1 team want to protect their current driver by keeping a faster driver out of their car?

Advantages of signing the better driver:
1) They will get better results
2) The better driver doesn't join another team and become their competition

Disadvantages of signing the better driver:
???
Many reasons:

  • Hiring an Alonso (by example) might get your short term points but require epic amounts of management bandwidth to keep things "on track" within the team.
  • Who is the future? Are you planning for 2019? Or a 5 year campaign? Alonso might be good for the latter part of the season but not if it pulls the team apart.
Teams do think of the year in hand, but with the advantage of big backing, can also take a longer view.
The reason ElusiveJim put forward was to protect their main driver. That's what I am questioning.

I agree with the points you've raised for Alonso, but they aren't relevant to my post. Those are reasons teams aren't hiring Alonso, not reasons they wouldn't hire anyone who threatens to beat their current main driver.

bobbo89

5,151 posts

144 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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Is anyone else looking at Ocon and wondering what the point in Mercedes retaining him is and putting him the car next year? They've already got Russell sat in the Williams doing a brilliant job proving he's got more than enough potential and Bottas is doing a good enough job bringing in the points without upsetting Hamilton.

If I were Merc I'd be retaining Bottas next year on another 1 year contract, releasing Ocon to say Renault and look at putting Russell into the car in 2021.

TheDeuce

21,274 posts

65 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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bobbo89 said:
Is anyone else looking at Ocon and wondering what the point in Mercedes retaining him is and putting him the car next year? They've already got Russell sat in the Williams doing a brilliant job proving he's got more than enough potential and Bottas is doing a good enough job bringing in the points without upsetting Hamilton.

If I were Merc I'd be retaining Bottas next year on another 1 year contract, releasing Ocon to say Renault and look at putting Russell into the car in 2021.
Honestly, I think Toto is looking at Ocon and wondering what the point is.. He's kind of surplus to requirements at the moment.

As Red Bull are proving, it's good to have a raft of upcoming talent in the wings if you need to work through a couple of drivers before you find one that performs in the car as hoped. But it's not so great if you end up with more talent than you have seats to offer.

Lots of Ocon/Bottas rumours but the hard fact is that Bottas is good enough, more than good enough, and he's part of a ship currently headed towards securing Lewis a 6th and then 7th WDC, along with WCC's for the team. That is not a ship they would wish to rock if they simply don't need to do so. I can't see why they need to do anything other than maintain the status quo right now.

I do wish they would release Ocon so he can find a seat elsewhere though.

768

13,601 posts

95 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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I think Toto has to look as though he's doing his best for Ocon. It'd be a brave call though to break what's currently working.

If it were me there would be an element of looking at how Red Bull are getting on with finding a second driver and trying to keep hold of as many cards as I could. I reckon Russell's more likely to be the next Merc driver than Ocon... cue the news Ocon's got the seat.

thegreenhell

15,115 posts

218 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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Ocon needs to get himself into a seat for next year. He can't just sit around waiting for uncle Toto to make a call. The longer he stays out of a car and out of the spotlight, the harder it will be to get back in the game.

It's looking like a relatively weak F2 crop this year, so that should make for less competition for a midfield team drive. He's got to be aiming for a Renault or Haas drive at a minimum.

TheDeuce

21,274 posts

65 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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thegreenhell said:
Ocon needs to get himself into a seat for next year. He can't just sit around waiting for uncle Toto to make a call. The longer he stays out of a car and out of the spotlight, the harder it will be to get back in the game.

It's looking like a relatively weak F2 crop this year, so that should make for less competition for a midfield team drive. He's got to be aiming for a Renault or Haas drive at a minimum.
I've been thinking.. It's not just the rate of new incoming talent, it's the age and length of career too. The drivers are getting younger, no reason to think they should lose their speed any younger though, so in theory, the average driver will be in the sport for longer.

It wasn't so long ago a lad like Max would have been rookie age, but he's already been around a few years. Lewis has been in the sport 12 years and shows no sign of being 'past it'. Not even close.

Quite frankly we could use a few dud years of F2 as the paddock is full. If the average career length is just 10 years then the paddock requires only 2 new drivers a year. We already have 2-3 waiting in the wings for next year so no one else need apply for the next 2 years. In that time the development programmes will probably have signed up another 6 new drivers.. Doesn't add up!

Vaud

Original Poster:

50,290 posts

154 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
I've been thinking.. It's not just the rate of new incoming talent, it's the age and length of career too. The drivers are getting younger, no reason to think they should lose their speed any younger though, so in theory, the average driver will be in the sport for longer.

It wasn't so long ago a lad like Max would have been rookie age, but he's already been around a few years. Lewis has been in the sport 12 years and shows no sign of being 'past it'. Not even close.

Quite frankly we could use a few dud years of F2 as the paddock is full. If the average career length is just 10 years then the paddock requires only 2 new drivers a year. We already have 2-3 waiting in the wings for next year so no one else need apply for the next 2 years. In that time the development programmes will probably have signed up another 6 new drivers.. Doesn't add up!
That is a challenge for the sport - a career could last 20 years, or even more (given Kimi is 39... no reason for Max to not be racing after 20 years).. not enough new constructor entrants, the sport is ultra safe... where is attrition going to come from?

TheDeuce

21,274 posts

65 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
Vaud said:
TheDeuce said:
I've been thinking.. It's not just the rate of new incoming talent, it's the age and length of career too. The drivers are getting younger, no reason to think they should lose their speed any younger though, so in theory, the average driver will be in the sport for longer.

It wasn't so long ago a lad like Max would have been rookie age, but he's already been around a few years. Lewis has been in the sport 12 years and shows no sign of being 'past it'. Not even close.

Quite frankly we could use a few dud years of F2 as the paddock is full. If the average career length is just 10 years then the paddock requires only 2 new drivers a year. We already have 2-3 waiting in the wings for next year so no one else need apply for the next 2 years. In that time the development programmes will probably have signed up another 6 new drivers.. Doesn't add up!
That is a challenge for the sport - a career could last 20 years, or even more (given Kimi is 39... no reason for Max to not be racing after 20 years).. not enough new constructor entrants, the sport is ultra safe... where is attrition going to come from?
Just done some more very basic maths and it looks more like the average career is around 13 years all told, that includes those that have exited unexpectedly early for whatever reason. The greatest portion of that average is around 10 years with some much longer/shorter of course. The key thing is that careers are beyond doubt getting longer on average, and the number of newly identified talents each year is growing too. These two trends appose one another, hence the paddock is currently littered with empty promises and full seats.

I suppose in the end the answer will come in some artificial way to force a faster turnaround. Something along the lines of the 107% rule but for drivers, not cars? Over the course of a season if the delta to your team mate, or the grid average or the two teams closest ahead of you is more than xx% then the driver exits F1? Sounds ridiculous but of course, this is a sport that bought us KERS and DRS and has given semi serious thought to the idea of sprinklers around the track smile

If the above type of rule was applied, Gasly would be gone from F1 at the end of this year. Is that sad/bad? Part of me thinks he had his shot in arguably the second finest car on the grid this year and that is (was) the best opportunity to shine most drivers could hope for. He had his shot, maybe his seat now should be freed up for a new kid at TR.


Vaud

Original Poster:

50,290 posts

154 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
I'd rather see more teams on the track and get back to 26 cars. Maybe mandating 2 year fixed term co-terminating contracts would create a bit more driver movement. ie.when the new rules come in you would then have a scramble for drivers every two years.

bobbo89

5,151 posts

144 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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768 said:
I reckon Russell's more likely to be the next Merc driver than Ocon...
This is how I see it which means Ocon is surplus to requirements. The only other thing Toto could do if he really wanted to retain him is to fund Ocon into the other Williams seat for a year (Kubica will be gone) and see who does the best between him and Russell to make a decision for 2021. Might suit Williams this as they're concentrating on reg changes.

That said, it's called silly season for a reason and Ocon might end up back at FI if Perez moves to Haas....?

TheDeuce

21,274 posts

65 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
Vaud said:
I'd rather see more teams on the track and get back to 26 cars. Maybe mandating 2 year fixed term co-terminating contracts would create a bit more driver movement. ie.when the new rules come in you would then have a scramble for drivers every two years.
I agree in a fantasy universe. Sad reality is that for years they've been allowing the existing teams too much influence over the rules simply to get the current 10 teams to stay, let alone managing to attract 3 more teams.

Back to 3 cars per team as another solution? I wouldn't mind that as it would mean potentially 9 cars battling for podiums regularly. Also if the top teams want to see the proposed budget caps raised, it could even be a good way of justifying an increase.

I suppose any solution to the rather fundamental problem of drivers vs seat numbers would need to be quite radical. Or just accept it's hard cheese, there aren't many places and that such comprehensive driver development programmes aren't actually needed to fill the seats available.

TheLimla

1,828 posts

193 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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768 said:
I think Toto has to look as though he's doing his best for Ocon. It'd be a brave call though to break what's currently working.

If it were me there would be an element of looking at how Red Bull are getting on with finding a second driver and trying to keep hold of as many cards as I could. I reckon Russell's more likely to be the next Merc driver than Ocon... cue the news Ocon's got the seat.
I hope Russell gets the seat as well, i think he could do well by being paired with Hamilton. Ocon, as much as i like him has too much to prove and i think would be reckless. But i would also like to see more Ocon/Verstappen incidents! Pure Gold!

JonChalk

6,469 posts

109 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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TheLimla said:
I hope Russell gets the seat as well, i think he could do well by being paired with Hamilton. Ocon, as much as i like him has too much to prove and i think would be reckless. But i would also like to see more Ocon/Verstappen incidents! Pure Gold!
I'd want that too, but Toto has made it pretty clear it's not going to happen in 20;

"It can go terribly wrong for a young driver that has the talent to be become a world champion if he's thrown into that environment next to the best driver of his generation, who has been with us for seven years.

"And I wouldn't want to burn George. Equally I think he's in a very good place at Williams, he helped them to come back to form, learn and appreciate when a car functions well.

HTP99

22,443 posts

139 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
JonChalk said:
TheLimla said:
I hope Russell gets the seat as well, i think he could do well by being paired with Hamilton. Ocon, as much as i like him has too much to prove and i think would be reckless. But i would also like to see more Ocon/Verstappen incidents! Pure Gold!
I'd want that too, but Toto has made it pretty clear it's not going to happen in 20;

"It can go terribly wrong for a young driver that has the talent to be become a world champion if he's thrown into that environment next to the best driver of his generation, who has been with us for seven years.

"And I wouldn't want to burn George. Equally I think he's in a very good place at Williams, he helped them to come back to form, learn and appreciate when a car functions well.
Sensible.

thegreenhell

15,115 posts

218 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
HTP99 said:
JonChalk said:
TheLimla said:
I hope Russell gets the seat as well, i think he could do well by being paired with Hamilton. Ocon, as much as i like him has too much to prove and i think would be reckless. But i would also like to see more Ocon/Verstappen incidents! Pure Gold!
I'd want that too, but Toto has made it pretty clear it's not going to happen in 20;

"It can go terribly wrong for a young driver that has the talent to be become a world champion if he's thrown into that environment next to the best driver of his generation, who has been with us for seven years.

"And I wouldn't want to burn George. Equally I think he's in a very good place at Williams, he helped them to come back to form, learn and appreciate when a car functions well.
Sensible.
The complete opposite of the Red Bull approach.

KevinCamaroSS

11,555 posts

279 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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bobbo89 said:
This is how I see it which means Ocon is surplus to requirements. The only other thing Toto could do if he really wanted to retain him is to fund Ocon into the other Williams seat for a year (Kubica will be gone) and see who does the best between him and Russell to make a decision for 2021. Might suit Williams this as they're concentrating on reg changes.
This. Gives Williams and Merc a solution for 2020 plus sorts out Merc for 2021

HTP99

22,443 posts

139 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
quotequote all
thegreenhell said:
HTP99 said:
JonChalk said:
TheLimla said:
I hope Russell gets the seat as well, i think he could do well by being paired with Hamilton. Ocon, as much as i like him has too much to prove and i think would be reckless. But i would also like to see more Ocon/Verstappen incidents! Pure Gold!
I'd want that too, but Toto has made it pretty clear it's not going to happen in 20;

"It can go terribly wrong for a young driver that has the talent to be become a world champion if he's thrown into that environment next to the best driver of his generation, who has been with us for seven years.

"And I wouldn't want to burn George. Equally I think he's in a very good place at Williams, he helped them to come back to form, learn and appreciate when a car functions well.
Sensible.
The complete opposite of the Red Bull approach.
Yep; chuck em in and see what happens.

I hope Alex Albon comes through, so far he seems a good bet!

HustleRussell

24,602 posts

159 months

Tuesday 20th August 2019
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So has PH unanimously agreed that Russell is better than Ocon? How come?