Red Bull Vs Ferarri

Red Bull Vs Ferarri

Author
Discussion

KevinCamaroSS

8,382 posts

235 months

Thursday 18th June
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dunc_sx said:
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
I reckon following the first two rounds Mercedes could be in third place in the championship and on the back foot.
Care to elaborate?

I can't think of any reason for Merc to struggle this year, quite the opposite.

Dunc
Certainly second, but not third. Max could win both Red Bull Ring races with Lewis second. But I am also sure they will be prepared for that.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Thursday 18th June
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KevinCamaroSS said:
Certainly second, but not third. Max would win both Red Bull Ring races with Lewis second. But I am also sure they will be prepared for that.
Agree. No reason to think Merc would lose to Ferrari here, but certainly possible they could lose to Red Bull.

That said, Red Bull typically improve through a season, and this is race one.. so overall, if I were to bet, it would be on Merc still.

Edited by TheDeuce on Thursday 18th June 17:46


Edited by TheDeuce on Thursday 18th June 17:47

FRISKO09

2 posts

1 month

Friday 19th June
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ajprice said:
I'm with you, apart from the cars, I think Verstappen and Albion will be the better mix than Leclerc and Vettel. I don't think Vettel's state of mind and attitude will be to play the team game.
I think that vettel is a clever driver, like at spa franchirchamps 2018 the use of drs on the kemmel straight won him the race, but in that race, kimi raikonan( vettels former team mate) has to with draw!

FRISKO09

2 posts

1 month

Friday 19th June
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sparta6 said:
biggrin

Ferrari & Red Bull need some more rain, ala Hockenheim.
Was a decent innings by Vettel and Max.
Verstaopen is on home territory at spa tho

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat

6,801 posts

50 months

Friday 19th June
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dunc_sx said:
Care to elaborate?

I can't think of any reason for Merc to struggle this year, quite the opposite.

Dunc
Mercedes struggle at altitude tracks generally, have had cooling problems which this track exacerbates and a poor recent record in Austria.

Deesee

3,887 posts

38 months

Friday 19th June
quotequote all
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
dunc_sx said:
Care to elaborate?

I can't think of any reason for Merc to struggle this year, quite the opposite.

Dunc
Mercedes struggle at altitude tracks generally, have had cooling problems which this track exacerbates and a poor recent record in Austria.
Merc have had front row in Austria for last 6 yrs... and won 4/6 there.

No leggy engines to protect this year, and new cooling package, this is a power circuit, they will have the engines up..

HustleRussell

17,883 posts

115 months

Friday 19th June
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Ferrari built a rocket ship last year as they had a big engine advantage for most of the season but probably underestimated the potential downforce within the 2019 regs and set too low a benchmark.

However their engine power was noticeably hobbled during the closing part of the season as the FIA began to take an interest.

What is interesting is we are yet to see how the FIA's investigation of Ferrari since then has further affected their PU.

What is more interesting still is that we are yet to see how the integration of those learnings in the 2020 regs will affect the other engine builders.

However we can be certain that Ferrari have massively increased their downforce targets for this year, so will their car deliver lap time in a similar way to Mercedes and Red Bull, i.e. less circuit specific and more of an all-rounder, and what are the chances of them striking that balance correctly having made such a big change in philosophy and with the added curveball of reduced engine power?

For me the dream is that the engines are even closer in performance for the beginning of 2020 than they were at the end of 2019 due to the new regulations. Unfortunately with their ace card gone the battle for Ferrari is then who can produce the most 'clean' downforce and the best chassis, and I suspect that Ferrari will lag behind Mercedes and Red Bull in these areas.

We have seen in recent years with McLaren and Williams what happens when a team tries to drastically increase downforce. It tends to result in a draggy car. I think this explains the long faces in Barcelona.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Friday 19th June
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
Ferrari built a rocket ship last year as they had a big engine advantage for most of the season but probably underestimated the potential downforce within the 2019 regs and set too low a benchmark.

However their engine power was noticeably hobbled during the closing part of the season as the FIA began to take an interest.



What is interesting is we are yet to see how the FIA's investigation of Ferrari since then has further affected their PU.

What is more interesting still is that we are yet to see how the integration of those learnings in the 2020 regs will affect the other engine builders.

However we can be certain that Ferrari have massively increased their downforce targets for this year, so will their car deliver lap time in a similar way to Mercedes and Red Bull, i.e. less circuit specific and more of an all-rounder, and what are the chances of them striking that balance correctly having made such a big change in philosophy and with the added curveball of reduced engine power?

For me the dream is that the engines are even closer in performance for the beginning of 2020 than they were at the end of 2019 due to the new regulations. Unfortunately with their ace card gone the battle for Ferrari is then who can produce the most 'clean' downforce and the best chassis, and I suspect that Ferrari will lag behind Mercedes and Red Bull in these areas.

We have seen in recent years with McLaren and Williams what happens when a team tries to drastically increase downforce. It tends to result in a draggy car. I think this explains the long faces in Barcelona.
That's all pretty much word for word what binotto said in Barcelona. And then the following day when asked if it was 'sandbagging' he got quite animated and reiterated that they really aren't happy, and the car is draggy - they have problems.

I think it's against the Ferrari Bible to ever publicly criticise their own cars, unless it's totally unavoidable. And at the time, just a couple of weeks from the first GP, there was nowhere to hide.

I think Mercedes and Red Bull have simply taken aero trickery to a higher level. Without a sizeable power advantage, I can't see Ferrari balancing that - at least not without spending considerably more time and effort on their own aero in order to catch up. Not just aero either, just look at what Mercedes are doing with their suspension and steering dynamics in recent years... They've made it hugely complex. At least Red Bull have the natural instinct of Newey to keep up.. who do Ferrari have?

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat

6,801 posts

50 months

Friday 19th June
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Maybe Ferrari chose a higher downforce development route when they thought they were going to continue with their engine tricks? The intervention towards the back end of last season might have hurt them twice; reduced engine power making the low downforce car unable to make up for its cornering deficit and commitment to a new car based on an engine advantage that's perhaps no longer there?

Suspect Ferrari will have been prioritising recovery of engine power and apparently a new engine is appearing for the first race.

HustleRussell

17,883 posts

115 months

Friday 19th June
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TheDeuce said:
just look at what Mercedes are doing with their suspension and steering dynamics in recent years... They've made it hugely complex. At least Red Bull have the natural instinct of Newey to keep up.. who do Ferrari have?
I was just thinking about that, the way I see it, Mercedes and Red Bull are so happy with the fundamental characteristics of their cars through the years that they're thinking "we've been studying this novel idea for years without implementing it, we know it's only an incremental gain, but we've only got two seasons left of the current regs- fk it, let's do it". It's not like McLaren with the butterfly wishbones where they were looking for a silver bullet which would enable them to be competitive, it's more novel and sexy ideas from the engineering dept which they are finally willing to spend their resource to implement. The Red Bull double front bulkhead and one piece upper wishbone, both team's novel rear suspension... there have even been suggestions that Mercedes DAS is pretty much a red herring to throw other teams off the scent of the innovations elsewhere on the car.

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
Maybe Ferrari chose a higher downforce development route when they thought they were going to continue with their engine tricks? The intervention towards the back end of last season might have hurt them twice; reduced engine power making the low downforce car unable to make up for its cornering deficit and commitment to a new car based on an engine advantage that's perhaps no longer there?

Suspect Ferrari will have been prioritising recovery of engine power and apparently a new engine is appearing for the first race.
It's a good point. They planned to increase the downforce as with their prior abundance of engine power they could 'afford' the drag...

LucyP

375 posts

14 months

Friday 19th June
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Not true. They started last year with the low downforce car, high engine power car, but the concept didn't work. They lost more in the corners than they gained on the straights and there are not enough "power" circuits. In addition, the concept made the car move around too much which increased tyre wear and was part of the reason for Vettel's lack of confidence and spins.

Throughout the season they added downforce, but the FIA were soon on their back following complaints and extra fuel sensors and increased monitoring led to a decrease in performance.

When they developed the car for 2020, they knew the likely outcome of the FIA investigation which would continue to limit performance and they had to have more downforce because of what they learned last year. The result is a compromise car that is not quick. That is why they didn't want the current regulations to continue into 2021.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Friday 19th June
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The conversation was about whether or not they had decided upon a higher downforce concept for this years car at a time before they had been nobbled for 'whatever' they were doing to get the extra power.

That really has nothing to do with the fact that they also tried to improve downforce on their 2019 car as the season progressed. They had simply overshot on their low drag philosophy last year and ended up with an unstable car - they had gone too far. As the season progressed and as more downforce sensitive circuits came, they naturally tried to improve downforce.

That is totally different from starting 2020 with a high downforce concept. Adding downforce to a car designed to be slippery was always going to be inefficient... With a car designed that way from the ground up however, the potential is there for a far better result. Sadly (possibly fairly), they have lost a chunk of their power advantage and also appear based on testing to not have done a very good job of the new concept.

Frankly, even before testing I thought and posted they would struggle to beat RB this year, purely because they had lost their 'extra power' and in an aero race vs RB it seemed very unlikely they would win. Since then they have themselves said the results of the new design are poor and draggy, they have a driver that won't play ball this season and they have less time than expected to make improvements. At this point they have enough stacked against them for this year to be a bit of a write off.. I expect within a few races, unless something really surprising happens, they'll start talking about this season in terms of development and learning over above hopes of being competitive in championship terms.

sparta6

1,784 posts

55 months

Friday 19th June
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2020 will carry a big asterix anyway so it's reasonable to expect that Ferrari are managing their expectations.

It's a wide open goal for Mercedes but hopefully we'll see some spicey action with Albon, Max, Leclerc and Vettel.

HustleRussell

17,883 posts

115 months

Tuesday
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Back to the drawing board for Ferrari, The car they turned up to testing with will see two race weekends at Austria and a significantly reworked version will arrive in Hungary

Deesee

3,887 posts

38 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
Back to the drawing board for Ferrari, The car they turned up to testing with will see two race weekends at Austria and a significantly reworked version will arrive in Hungary
They’ve got to do something, this is the car for 2021 as well, otherwise it could be two seasons not being competitive.

There’s no wind tunnel testing until Jan for the ‘22 cars so there’s plenty of time to get the SF1000 right.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Tuesday
quotequote all
Deesee said:
HustleRussell said:
Back to the drawing board for Ferrari, The car they turned up to testing with will see two race weekends at Austria and a significantly reworked version will arrive in Hungary
They’ve got to do something, this is the car for 2021 as well, otherwise it could be two seasons not being competitive.

There’s no wind tunnel testing until Jan for the ‘22 cars so there’s plenty of time to get the SF1000 right.
I just made that same point on the Ferrari thread. Yup, they have one last shot and that's it for this season and next. This thread is almost redundant now - if Ferrari are stuck in a 'bad car' for the first two races, that's a massive chunk of such a short season. Unless RB have some serious issues then Ferrari are down in 3rd in WCC this season, with not even really a fighting chance anymore. Maybe lower if Tracing Point manage to prove that copying is the best way to get top marks!

Ferrari really do struggle with aero don't they?

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Wednesday
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Apparently red bull (Honda) will have a PU upgrade (power and reliability again) in time for the first GP. That's quite significant because as I understand it, once the season is underway major PU upgrades will be frozen, albeit with tweaking allowed in certain areas.

Mercedes too will have their own update. By contrast, Ferrari say they won't.. which effectively means they will end this season with whatever PU performance they had back in pre-season testing.

HustleRussell

17,883 posts

115 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Apparently red bull (Honda) will have a PU upgrade (power and reliability again) in time for the first GP. That's quite significant because as I understand it, once the season is underway major PU upgrades will be frozen, albeit with tweaking allowed in certain areas.

Mercedes too will have their own update. By contrast, Ferrari say they won't.. which effectively means they will end this season with whatever PU performance they had back in pre-season testing.
I don’t think that’s true, I believe that if they turn up in Austria with V1.0 of their 2020 PU they will have one or possibly two opportunities to introduce a new spec without penalty depending on how many races there are.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
I don’t think that’s true, I believe that if they turn up in Austria with V1.0 of their 2020 PU they will have one or possibly two opportunities to introduce a new spec without penalty depending on how many races there are.
I might be wrong - I thought the in season updates were limited to mgu-k, control electronics and combustion tweaks (to suit fuel updates). Is that wrong?

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
This is what I was referring to: https://the-race.com/formula-1/the-full-extent-of-...

Goes further than I realised actually..


However, reading this suggests Honda had an updates ahead of the freeze being approved.. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.formula1.com/en/l...

So they've essentially had one full PU update cycle more than the others?

Digging deeper, I have read that Ferrari DO also have a revamped PU with a little extra power. But.. this article says they are sticking with the Melbourne spec PU (in fact the entire car) for Austria, which will force them to keep the same PU spec for the rest of the season as a result. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.formula1.com/en/l...

If this is all correct, I'd assume that as Ferrari raced to develop an improved 2020 car, they co developed the new spec PU to work with different packaging and mount points etc. But with the new car not ready to race in time, they now have to use the original 2020 car and its original PU. Which by extension would also mean they have to get the same PU to fit in the new car in time for Hungary!? If so, that's a massive kick in nuts for the team.

Edited by TheDeuce on Wednesday 1st July 07:55