F1 cancelled this year?
Discussion
You're right jsf. Especially in F1, given that 2020 is a transition year and the automotive industry is in crisis already. Corona will push the stock markets down and car sales down. Is there much point in developing this year's car at the expense of next year's especially if most of the events are going to be cancelled? Better to concentrate on 2021 and save money on the parallel development.
LucyP said:
We don't agree Deuce, because I listen to the experts, and I don't think you do. Dr Bruce Aylward for instance, who is the Assistant Director General of the World Health Organisation, who led an international mission to China to learn about Corona. His estimate was that it is 10 times more deadly than flue. He was talking about a 1% mortality rate. The worldwide rate is currently 6%, and that is if China is telling the truth. If the remaining cases all recover and there are no more infected people (which is fantasy), then the death rate would fall to 3%.
Flu has been around for so long, that much I known about it and the R0 number, which is the basically how easily it is spread is 1.3. Obviously much less is known about Corona but the R0 number is between 2 and 3. Therefore it is spread much more easily.
His estimate was most definitely not concerning a 'flue' Flu has been around for so long, that much I known about it and the R0 number, which is the basically how easily it is spread is 1.3. Obviously much less is known about Corona but the R0 number is between 2 and 3. Therefore it is spread much more easily.
What's the point of talking about worldwide and also the situation in China in the same sentence? Of course the situation is worse there than they admit, probably worse than they know. If you want a virus to move rapidly, the worlds densest population is a very good place to start.
He also said: "The new coronavirus first appeared in the city of Wuhan, in central China. WHO officials say two percent to four percent of patients there have died. In the rest of China, the rate of death was much lower – only 0.7 percent.
There is nothing different about the coronavirus from one place to another. Instead, the new strain of virus struck Wuhan fast, before anyone knew what the sickness was. Hospitals were quickly over-crowded. In addition, the first patients were very sick before they visited a doctor or hospital", Aylward noted.
So back down to 0.7% mortality rate. There were indeed further notes on the high transmission rate - but again, it would be higher in such a dense population.
This is a new virus, there was initially limited awareness so in places it spread very rapidly. The current infection rate is based upon confirmed cases, which of course are still catching up as for a good while (even in Italy) the detection effort was not that great. As the detection effort catches up with reality, the infection and mortality rate will finally be known globally and it is certain to be lower than whatever figures the press cling on to today.
It's also a new virus with limited means to combat it at present. Before we got on top of winter flu in the UK in a single year (I think 2010 ish from memory) over 10,000 people died. Coronavirus will exceed that worldwide, and I have zero doubt that the headlines at that milestone will be bigger than they were in our own tiny island, in-spite of the fact as many people died in a single year here alone.
You obviously care very much and I have no doubt you're genuinely concerned - I care too, and I really don't want to argue with you endlessly. It's clear we have both sought the facts and have both come away with a differing assessment of the situation. But in terms of it's effect on F1, we both agree that it's not good. That, for this forum, should be enough.
There is also no point in arguing about how deadly this could become because we can simply wait for a little while - if you're right, it'll have swept past regular flu by the end of this year and I'll look like a pillock. If that happens I promise I'll own up to being very wrong indeed. But right now I don't see it that way.
Edited by TheDeuce on Friday 6th March 00:06
te.jsf said:
Why do you think governments around the world are acting the way they are if this virus is no more dangerous than the common flu?
If you catch this virus it's up to 20 times more lethal, with a much higher requirement for hospital care due to pneumonia.
The only reason the numbers are relatively small right now is because it's early days and containment is managing the spread. Thats not going to last based on common sense and the long term message coming out of governments and health professionals.
I will be very surprised if most of the events i work at are not severely affected, if it's as bad as the potential it's likely lots in my line of work will be made redundant.
Again... It's new, it's scary - and for the time being we have little to combat it in terms of prevention.If you catch this virus it's up to 20 times more lethal, with a much higher requirement for hospital care due to pneumonia.
The only reason the numbers are relatively small right now is because it's early days and containment is managing the spread. Thats not going to last based on common sense and the long term message coming out of governments and health professionals.
I will be very surprised if most of the events i work at are not severely affected, if it's as bad as the potential it's likely lots in my line of work will be made redundant.
Yes I agree, many industries will suffer. I work in global events, I'm more than able to acknowledge the threat to the economic situation from my own work perspective. I work the European motorshow circuit, Geneva already cancelled and Paris sure to follow.
The fact I have an open mind about just how deadly the virus itself is, does not mean I'm not aware of the knock on economic effect. The press are hyping it 24/7, that will have an effect regardless of whether or not you or I are correct about how deadly this virus actually is. It will also put pressure on governments around the world.
Deuce, you're also forgetting one major fact: Vaccine. It exists for flu and it doesn't for Corona. Even if one was developed tomorrow, by the time the tests, clinical trials, authorisation and manufacturing was in place, then we will be in October, so Corona is easily going to overtake flu and you are going to look like a "pillock" as you put it.
That's why others are telling you how serious this is, and why Governments are taking such drastic steps.
That's why others are telling you how serious this is, and why Governments are taking such drastic steps.
LucyP said:
Deuce, you're also forgetting one major fact: Vaccine. It exists for flu and it doesn't for Corona. Even if one was developed tomorrow, by the time the tests, clinical trials, authorisation and manufacturing was in place, then we will be in October, so Corona is easily going to overtake flu and you are going to look like a "pillock" as you put it.
That's why others are telling you how serious this is, and why Governments are taking such drastic steps.
Literally in my last reply to you I noted that it's a new virus with limited means combat it.That's why others are telling you how serious this is, and why Governments are taking such drastic steps.
It's very difficult to debate with someone more keen to speak than to listen.
Trials are already underway. I agree likely far later in the year until proven and then there is the problem of scaling up production - not to mention the cost..
Even without a vaccine, as per my last post, I still think it won't outdo flu this year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.co...
This bit:
"This is in essence what happened with the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, also called swine flu. It spread quickly, eventually to an estimated 11 to 21 percent of the global population. The WHO declared it a pandemic, and there was widespread fear.
H1N1 turned out to be milder than initially feared, causing little more than runny noses and coughs in most people. And H1N1 is now so commonplace, it’s simply seen as a part of the seasonal flus that come and go every year around the globe.
Early estimates on the fatality rate for H1N1 were much higher than the roughly 0.01 to 0.03 percent it turned out to be. "
The end effect is always less than initially feared - because what is initially feared sells the story and becomes the story. In the end, it's for each of us to decide how we judge the threat. I can say however that back in the swine flu days I was most certainly referred to in stronger terms than 'a pillock' as I suspect quite a few judge me now.
This isn't swine flu, this is far more serious. And if I speak more than I listen to you, that should tell you something. Perhaps that I know what I am talking about, and there might be a reason for that. In contrast, I don't think that you are anything to do with F1/Government/Medicine/Science.
LucyP said:
This isn't swine flu, this is far more serious. And if I speak more than I listen to you, that should tell you something. Perhaps that I know what I am talking about, and there might be a reason for that. In contrast, I don't think that you are anything to do with F1/Government/Medicine/Science.
Swine flu was far more serious than swine flu too!And no I'm not F1/Government/Medicine/Science. Congrats on such a diverse career path if you are - I imagine there is some conflict between those four disciplines though
How long will the problem of this new virus last with regards to sporting events? How long before it runs its course? Are we looking at a couple of months, or will it drag on to June/July?
I'v searched online for a prognosis from someone expert, but they tend to vary. I've heard of 8 months. Others give a sort of hopeful 'It should end when the weather gets warmer', but then, with the world becoming one, it's always getting colder somewhere.
Anyone able to give a ball-park figure? With some support.
I'v searched online for a prognosis from someone expert, but they tend to vary. I've heard of 8 months. Others give a sort of hopeful 'It should end when the weather gets warmer', but then, with the world becoming one, it's always getting colder somewhere.
Anyone able to give a ball-park figure? With some support.
Derek Smith said:
How long will the problem of this new virus last with regards to sporting events? How long before it runs its course? Are we looking at a couple of months, or will it drag on to June/July?
I'v searched online for a prognosis from someone expert, but they tend to vary. I've heard of 8 months. Others give a sort of hopeful 'It should end when the weather gets warmer', but then, with the world becoming one, it's always getting colder somewhere.
Anyone able to give a ball-park figure? With some support.
In spite of initial fears to the contrary, it plateaued in China faster than initially projected - there are still slews of new cases but it has slowed significantly in it's spread. There is a relatively sober and concise summary here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-p...I'v searched online for a prognosis from someone expert, but they tend to vary. I've heard of 8 months. Others give a sort of hopeful 'It should end when the weather gets warmer', but then, with the world becoming one, it's always getting colder somewhere.
Anyone able to give a ball-park figure? With some support.
Obviously if it's already being slowed at ground zero in China, that is reassuring news elsewhere. However, as the situation in Italy has demonstrated, it can arrive and temporarily take a firm hold in new places, it seems inevitable that will continue to happen and some locations will be harder hit or prove less effective at getting on top if it quickly.
There can't be a confident time frame imo, but if it's anything like past examples 8-12 months seems to be about the norm - based on it taking roughly that long for many affected countries to get on top the problem in an effective way. Also the rough length of time for treatment and (hopefully) vaccines to be tested and become effective.
In the end you need to find an expert at measuring the length of a piece of string
Edited by TheDeuce on Friday 6th March 09:57
Derek Smith said:
How long will the problem of this new virus last with regards to sporting events? How long before it runs its course? Are we looking at a couple of months, or will it drag on to June/July?
I'v searched online for a prognosis from someone expert, but they tend to vary. I've heard of 8 months. Others give a sort of hopeful 'It should end when the weather gets warmer', but then, with the world becoming one, it's always getting colder somewhere.
Anyone able to give a ball-park figure? With some support.
Newton’s 3rd law of experts:I'v searched online for a prognosis from someone expert, but they tend to vary. I've heard of 8 months. Others give a sort of hopeful 'It should end when the weather gets warmer', but then, with the world becoming one, it's always getting colder somewhere.
Anyone able to give a ball-park figure? With some support.
For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert.
No one knows.
No this is nothing like the earlier flues, probably the biggest challenge we have had in modern times. No everyone wont die, but there is no reason to take this lightly, everything indicates it will be very tough times the coming months. If we run out of medical equipment and hosptial resources the mortality numbers will rise even more. F1 racing might not be the highest priority in many contries when people are dying and medical resources are on the limit, thats understandable in my world.
CedricN said:
That's a lovely graph and I'm not trying to push an agenda either way, but something as simplistic as 'number of deaths' is hardly statistically representative or meaningful, it has no context whatsoever in terms of number of people exposed, their general health (before they died, obviously), their living conditions (population density, standards of hygiene, access to medical facilities etc.), demographics of those exposed (likelihood to travel etc.), time to mortality after infection etc.Edited by SturdyHSV on Friday 6th March 14:03
CedricN said:
F1 racing might not be the highest priority in many contries when people are dying and medical resources are on the limit, thats understandable in my world.
As this is an F1 thread, it is reasonable to focus on the effects specific to the sport and although one accepts the impact on the countries and their people. My concern, re F1, is that if there are few or spasmodic races, then the team's income might be hit. Those with constructor-funded budgets will probably have little difficulty in surviving, although support for F1 might be cut back next season if they are hit by the economic fallout. The smaller, more or less independent teams might well struggle just to exist.
If the 2021 regs prove expensive to implement, might we see a significant change to F1 as we know it?
Derek Smith said:
As this is an F1 thread, it is reasonable to focus on the effects specific to the sport and although one accepts the impact on the countries and their people.
My concern, re F1, is that if there are few or spasmodic races, then the team's income might be hit. Those with constructor-funded budgets will probably have little difficulty in surviving, although support for F1 might be cut back next season if they are hit by the economic fallout. The smaller, more or less independent teams might well struggle just to exist.
If the 2021 regs prove expensive to implement, might we see a significant change to F1 as we know it?
Indeed, the races generate the exposure for the sponsors - no racing I assume would mean staged payments will not arrive as expected, or at least be reduced.My concern, re F1, is that if there are few or spasmodic races, then the team's income might be hit. Those with constructor-funded budgets will probably have little difficulty in surviving, although support for F1 might be cut back next season if they are hit by the economic fallout. The smaller, more or less independent teams might well struggle just to exist.
If the 2021 regs prove expensive to implement, might we see a significant change to F1 as we know it?
Then the question of liberty, who have flogged the rights to 'the biggest season of F1 ever' to networks around the world. What happens to that money?
It's a shame for F1 this has happened now, as in the last couple of years there have been improvements and the sport is engaging new viewers in various ways, it was all going pretty well..
It's hard to see how several teams and the sport itself can afford to miss a year, or even a big part of a year.
Edited by TheDeuce on Friday 6th March 15:06
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