The Official F1 2021 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2021 silly season *contains speculation*

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Discussion

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
ch37 said:
Vandoorne has been used as a counterpoint to drivers coming up having performed well in lower formulae, but I still think he would have easily been a very decent F1 driver if circumstances didn't play out how they did. The team at that time, his teammate, none of that would have helped at all.

I know you make your own luck but timing is a big factor. Russell's trajectory could easily been that of LeClerc had the whole Rosberg/Bottas situation not happen when it did. If buts and maybes, but considering some of the drivers on the grid I think its hard to find a good angle to suggest that Russell doesn't deserve a midfield seat at the very least.

Regarding his race pace, I don't believe it can solely be driver error every single race. The car seems reasonable in Quali on low fuel so he/the car certainly has one lap pace in the right conditions, but as a race day car it consistently drops down behind those that it can out qualify (in Russell's hands). If they had two Latifi's we probably wouldn't even know that it's a car capable of some Q2s this season.

Edited by ch37 on Friday 23 October 20:55
Stoffel, should have been retained, Alonso could drive around the problems, Stoffel could not, the car/engine was not great..and needed proper input, this did not happen.

Alonso should have done more to develop the car, the final nail in his Stoffels coffin was Lando at monza first ever FP1 in a F1 car going a .10 up on Alonso, first ever session going faster than a 2x champion, faster than mr 6ths and sadly faster than Soffel.

Russell will find his own way... up the field or at the back..or out..

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Deesee said:
Nampahc Niloc said:
What data shows that?
The GPS/lap delta data, it was shown in FP1 today.
We don't know what they were doing in FP, same as ever. Quali is as representative of a drivers speed as we can get - but that's also the car at it's prime, we have no real metric of how far each car deteriorates in terms of driveability through a race.. Race pace can perpetually be affected by other factors and how the car reacts to them for an extended period. You're good at the data following Deesee, but sometimes you have to get out of the numbers and consider what can't be calculated too! The Williams is an awful car with a stellar engine, of course it can punch above a little in quali but I really don't think it can manage tyres for a race distance or behave at all predictably around other cars.
The data was not based on free practice, it was on race pace, the visual was shown on FP1.

(Sorry for any confusion)..

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..

TheDeuce

21,275 posts

65 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Deesee said:
TheDeuce said:
Deesee said:
Nampahc Niloc said:
What data shows that?
The GPS/lap delta data, it was shown in FP1 today.
We don't know what they were doing in FP, same as ever. Quali is as representative of a drivers speed as we can get - but that's also the car at it's prime, we have no real metric of how far each car deteriorates in terms of driveability through a race.. Race pace can perpetually be affected by other factors and how the car reacts to them for an extended period. You're good at the data following Deesee, but sometimes you have to get out of the numbers and consider what can't be calculated too! The Williams is an awful car with a stellar engine, of course it can punch above a little in quali but I really don't think it can manage tyres for a race distance or behave at all predictably around other cars.
The data was not based on free practice, it was on race pace, the visual was shown on FP1.

(Sorry for any confusion)..
That's fine but as I keep saying, the car can cause as much of a problem in terms of sustained pace as the driver can. All we know about the Williams suggests it a reasonable car for a sprint but a total liability to go to battle in for a race distance.

I don't believe the powers that be will be as enthralled as you are by the visual shown. They'll be looking at how well he copes with a st car, not the fairly inevitable results of that car. Although again I'll make clear I'm not backing him. For all I know if he was given a better drive he would himself prove to be the limit... I simply don't think what we have seen so far proves anything either way - other than he seems consistent at least.

TheDeuce

21,275 posts

65 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
OK... Even I'll admit that's a slap..

stemll

4,065 posts

199 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
OK... Even I'll admit that's a slap..
Or does it mean Williams are switching to Renault? Was bandied around a while back that someone was talking to Renault and Williams were the only ones that made any sense (pre the Honda departure news and possible also before the Williams sale)

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
OK... Even I'll admit that's a slap..
They have the data..

The media now have the insight..

(But I’m a Mercedes driver yawn..).

These drivers are all quick over a lap..

Previous Mercedes (mcMerc) junior drivers.. So where you going to put Russell (and Pascal
snagged a point in a Manor and a few more on a sauber)..

(My list)..

Hamilton


Quick Nick

Di Resta (weight was an issue)
Princess Pascal
Ocon




DanielSan

18,748 posts

166 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
Why do they bother with a young driver program when the only aim of it seems to be hang them out to dry after being a hindrance to their F1 chances for a couple of seasons?

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
DanielSan said:
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
Why do they bother with a young driver program when the only aim of it seems to be hang them out to dry after being a hindrance to their F1 chances for a couple of seasons?
Well I suppose they could always run 3/4 teams per season or wait patiently for another Hamilton..


DanielSan

18,748 posts

166 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Well I suppose they could always run 3/4 teams per season or wait patiently for another Hamilton..
They barely put them in a car, Ocon had to leave the Merc program to get the Renault seat.

TheDeuce

21,275 posts

65 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
DanielSan said:
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
Why do they bother with a young driver program when the only aim of it seems to be hang them out to dry after being a hindrance to their F1 chances for a couple of seasons?
It's not about guaranteed results - it's about increasing the possibility of bagging a star early on and taking ownership for your own team(s).

It's thus entirely possible and to be expected that of any given promising crop of drivers, they ultimately prove not as good as hoped. In addition, circumstance and fortune can hobble a perhaps very good driver...

As Deesee has pointed out, clearly Toto has an insight in to Russells performance that has prompted him to dismiss him publicly from his concern. Sad but that's the way it goes. He must have been failing to impress on some level that Mercedes had greater expectations of. Or it could just be that Claire activated his extension clause which Russell agreed to and put Toto's nose out of joint as a result. Sometimes the drivers control their own circumstance and fortune! We never really know..

What we do know is that amongst a sea of nearly rans, the young driver programmes have bought a few very good drivers to the front line.

thegreenhell

15,115 posts

218 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
stemll said:
Or does it mean Williams are switching to Renault? Was bandied around a while back that someone was talking to Renault and Williams were the only ones that made any sense (pre the Honda departure news and possible also before the Williams sale)
It was only a few months ago that Williams signed an extension to their Mercedes deal, taking them up to 2025. They would have to get a very good deal from Renault to make it worth their while to break that contract and switch supplier.

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
DanielSan said:
Deesee said:
Well I suppose they could always run 3/4 teams per season or wait patiently for another Hamilton..
They barely put them in a car, Ocon had to leave the Merc program to get the Renault seat.
Ocon has had 2.5 seasons under ‘Merc’ with manor and force india, then been placed (after a year off) into the Renault, and still a ‘Merc’ driver, and will be replaced this yr.

antspants

2,401 posts

174 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
From what I've read, what he actually said is Russell's future at Williams is not up to Mercedes, rather than his entire F1 future. He followed up with “But there’s obviously a financial reality that I cannot judge at all and it’s absolutely the judgement of the new owners and Simon to decide what they want to do going forward.”

TheDeuce

21,275 posts

65 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
antspants said:
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
From what I've read, what he actually said is Russell's future at Williams is not up to Mercedes, rather than his entire F1 future. He followed up with “But there’s obviously a financial reality that I cannot judge at all and it’s absolutely the judgement of the new owners and Simon to decide what they want to do going forward.”
It's not really up to Simon though is it? His position is temporary so I doubt he'd be inclined (or permitted) to make the sort of decsions that tie the team to a certain path after he is succeeded by a permanent TP.

I hope it's something to do with the current complex politics between what the Williams family left, what Toto expected and what the new owners may do that has put Russell's future in to uncertainty. My fear is that Toto is more than smart enough to know how what he said about Russell's might be interpreted, even if he hasn't technically said he's done with him. He's more than clever enough to avoid any suggestion he's no longer backing his driver if he doesn't wish too...

I'm conflicted as Toto doubtless has a better standpoint to judge Russells actual performance than we do. But at the same time to me he really did look promising yet suppressed by his car. I personally hold out hope he finds another drive, any other drive - and an opportunity to defeat a more established driver team mate. It'd be a bit sad to see him go without at least another level of challenge above what he has had so far at Williams.

That said, in the end those with a full appreciation of his performance might have already spotted some gaps in his ability and it might be perfectly fair and sensible he never gets that chance.

antspants

2,401 posts

174 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
It's not really up to Simon though is it? His position is temporary so I doubt he'd be inclined (or permitted) to make the sort of decsions that tie the team to a certain path after he is succeeded by a permanent TP.
No idea I just copied and pasted the quote from here

Tbf I simply read it as him saying it's up to the team who their drivers are, he believes Russell is quick enough to warrant a spot but understands there are commercial factors that may trump that.

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
antspants said:
Deesee said:
Toto has chipped in now..

Russell future not up to mercedes..

Ouchie..
From what I've read, what he actually said is Russell's future at Williams is not up to Mercedes, rather than his entire F1 future. He followed up with “But there’s obviously a financial reality that I cannot judge at all and it’s absolutely the judgement of the new owners and Simon to decide what they want to do going forward.”
Ok..

So reading between the lines..

Williams are unwilling to pay his salary (minimal). .and or are happy to pay the 12m a year for the power unit rather than a discount of 4 million for a net 8 million.

That is not surprising when Checo will bring in 20 + million, others perhaps more..

IMO .. Mr Wolff is no longer a shareholder at Williams following the buyout this summer and williams now have a funded owner, cash on account, and a queue of drivers willing to purchase space on the side pods etc, see (Sirotkin/Kubica/Lafifi/) perhaps Checo..

Toto can’t provide George with money or a drive..to retain his services.. is he a Mercedes driver or a Toto driver?

Perhaps this is the paddock reigning in Toto..

Nb, as we know Mr Wolff is involved with Racing Point/Aston Martin as well as Mercedes, and none of his drivers have been appointed as new for next year..




TheDeuce

21,275 posts

65 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
antspants said:
TheDeuce said:
It's not really up to Simon though is it? His position is temporary so I doubt he'd be inclined (or permitted) to make the sort of decsions that tie the team to a certain path after he is succeeded by a permanent TP.
No idea I just copied and pasted the quote from here

Tbf I simply read it as him saying it's up to the team who their drivers are, he believes Russell is quick enough to warrant a spot but understands there are commercial factors that may trump that.
I think Toto hopefully just ducked out of commenting in depth on a developing situation between him and Williams dealings regards George and possibly more. It does still strike me as odd that he should say anything that even sounds like he's now detached from George's interests - will just have to wait and see on that point.

Anyway, he's absolutely being realistic when he says commercial interests will probably win the day. The new owners of Williams will at some point want to make money, and to do so whilst not ploughing excessive amounts of money in to the team in the short term. Perez would bring a serious amount of money to the team. Question is... where does George go next? Maybe nowhere in F1... It's a real possibility.

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Anyway..

Here’s the Williams are not the worst car graphic,



Well ahead of Hass and Alfa on the shadow, not quite renault on the performance.

TheDeuce

21,275 posts

65 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Nb, as we know Mr Wolff is involved with Racing Point/Aston Martin as well as Mercedes, and none of his drivers have been appointed as new for next year..
Interesting side point... Mercedes (Daimler) are also involved in Aston Martin. I have said it a few times but I think there is something more of a plan coming together there involving Toto, Stroll, AM and Mercedes than just F1, and more to come in F1 terms as a result of it too. I feel like we're currently seeing about 50% of whatever Toto and Stroll are working on.

Maybe Mercedes at some point need to kick their AMG brand to a sub brand in order to avoid huge EU emissions fines as a mainstream car producer? The powertrains are already in the AM cars.. It would allow Mercedes to finally exit F1 after becoming pretty much undefeatable for perhaps decades yet still retain a presence as AMG as a PU supplier feeding the marketing interests of AM that Toto, Stroll and Daimler have interests in and at a stroke transfer what has been great about Mercedes F1 to AM F1, provide a new home for Mercedes AMG power both on track and on the road and help Mercedes as car builders move on to a new future without the lead weight of petrol swigging V8's bogging them down as a brand. Mercedes = quality sensible and responsible cars. AM = fun cars for the rich and gittish.

All hopeless speculation of course! But I'm convinced there is more of a plan coming together than we have seen to date. Too many crossovers in terms of investment and cooperation to believe otherwise.

Edited by TheDeuce on Friday 23 October 23:22