The Official F1 2022 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2022 silly season *contains speculation*

Author
Discussion

resolve10

1,003 posts

44 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
The thing with Dani, I still can’t fathom walking away from a top team at your best years, (I understand the money), I don’t think he will ever get another top drive, he had a great 2020 and is a great driver, but unless there’s some seismic change in the balance of the grid and McLaren having a ‘dominant’ car grabbing 2/3 podiums a year is the best he can do now & he would do that in the Renault or the McLaren IMO.
He left Red Bull because it was clear Max was being positioned as an unofficial #1 driver. Had he stayed, it would have been very difficult to win a championship as he would never get priority when it comes to race strategy.

As things have panned out in the two seasons since he left, Mercedes still have the better car and the best overall driver, so it's hard to see how he could have been a champion even if he stayed. Arguably it was a good call to move, his stock is probably higher as a result of getting the best out of the Renault than it would have been if he stayed at RB picking up a win or two.

In my opinion he's now in the best place he possibly can be for 2022. New regulations, Mercedes engine and the positive environment of a team on the up.

TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
resolve10 said:
He left Red Bull because it was clear Max was being positioned as an unofficial #1 driver. Had he stayed, it would have been very difficult to win a championship as he would never get priority when it comes to race strategy.

As things have panned out in the two seasons since he left, Mercedes still have the better car and the best overall driver, so it's hard to see how he could have been a champion even if he stayed. Arguably it was a good call to move, his stock is probably higher as a result of getting the best out of the Renault than it would have been if he stayed at RB picking up a win or two.

In my opinion he's now in the best place he possibly can be for 2022. New regulations, Mercedes engine and the positive environment of a team on the up.
Agree with all that. By leaving RB he was on a new journey that could eventually lead to having some sort of shot at a title down the line. Compared to staying where he was never going to get the shot so long as Max was favoured by the team.

So, slim chance is better than effectively no chance. That and the fact Renault gave him about $40m... smile

HustleRussell

24,602 posts

159 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
HustleRussell said:
Deesee said:
Ok, devil’s advocate, I’d say he’s top 5 on the grid presently, where’s the overriding view of where Seb is then?
It is obviously tough to argue that he’s top 5 on the grid presently based on last year alone, and you have to bear in mind that many people will tend to do just that.

Even experienced pundits can be heard to say that “you’re only as good as your last race”, so it depends on to what extent you subscribe to that view.

The very top drivers simply don’t wilt the way that Vettel does when things aren’t going his way.

For the removal of any ambiguity I would say that Vettel is no better than 4th best driver presently. I do not believe he is better than Alonso or Hamilton, I am increasingly certain that Verstappen also is better, and a strong case can be made for Ricciardo.
Agreed with LH, FA, and the ascension of MV (even of Quali performance alone).

CLC makes up my 5.

With a very strong tier 1.5 of Dani, Checo and Sainz.

Seb was certainly switched off last year.
So in terms of Tier 1 we only really differ in that we have Ricciardo and Leclerc the other way around.

I do rate Leclerc very highly but I am waiting to see if he can be the winning machine that Vettel was when presented with the opportunity or whether he will just give things away a little too much. Keen to see how he will do vs. a motivated Sainz at the top of his game.

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
HustleRussell said:
So in terms of Tier 1 we only really differ in that we have Ricciardo and Leclerc the other way around.

I do rate Leclerc very highly but I am waiting to see if he can be the winning machine that Vettel was when presented with the opportunity or whether he will just give things away a little too much. Keen to see what happens with Sainz.
Indeed, IMO CLC is the quickest of the new generation (Max included), in 2019 when he had his nose in front he was ruthless, however made more than a few errors that year, (but with less than 40gp starts and the pressure of the scurries who would not), like with Max consistency will be key in in his WDC aspirations.

& your right it will be interesting to see what happens with the two Charlie’s.

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
resolve10 said:
He left Red Bull because it was clear Max was being positioned as an unofficial #1 driver. Had he stayed, it would have been very difficult to win a championship as he would never get priority when it comes to race strategy.

As things have panned out in the two seasons since he left, Mercedes still have the better car and the best overall driver, so it's hard to see how he could have been a champion even if he stayed. Arguably it was a good call to move, his stock is probably higher as a result of getting the best out of the Renault than it would have been if he stayed at RB picking up a win or two.

In my opinion he's now in the best place he possibly can be for 2022. New regulations, Mercedes engine and the positive environment of a team on the up.
Agree with all that. By leaving RB he was on a new journey that could eventually lead to having some sort of shot at a title down the line. Compared to staying where he was never going to get the shot so long as Max was favoured by the team.

So, slim chance is better than effectively no chance. That and the fact Renault gave him about $40m... smile
Ricciardo torpedoed his own career, left top team rather than fight, join a lower midfield team with a minimal budget (with the same PU), ended up in court suing his own advisor over the monies for the Renault deal.

Max and Dani were very close on Quali and race pace in the Red Bull, now if Dani & Red Bull had the Honda consistency in 2020...? The WCC would have been a lot closer.

There was no favouritism or team orders no multi 21, or being put on unfavourable strategies. There was a silly mistake where both looked stupid, perhaps the fall out from that was the catalyst.

TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Ricciardo torpedoed his own career, left top team rather than fight, join a lower midfield team with a minimal budget (with the same PU), ended up in court suing his own advisor over the monies for the Renault deal.

Max and Dani were very close on Quali and race pace in the Red Bull, now if Dani & Red Bull had the Honda consistency in 2020...? The WCC would have been a lot closer.

There was no favouritism or team orders no multi 21, or being put on unfavourable strategies. There was a silly mistake where both looked stupid, perhaps the fall out from that was the catalyst.
DR was imo overall an equal to Max - albeit they have different strengths and styles. I miss the pairing..

As for how the team put Max first, it's difficult to see it in action on the outside - all we know is that DR himself said it was obvious to him that Max was getting the backing - we either have to believe him or not. Personally I think it's likely Max was genuinely being favoured as I can't fathom any other reason for DR departing. I never got the impression he felt threatened by Max and as you say, the stats put them very level - I have actually argued previously that if the stats are adjusted to balance DNF's then DR was actually ahead. They also were and remain friends.

If RB weren't holding him back vs Max in some way, then why would he have given up a race winning drive?

Perhaps the truth as to how Max was advantaged in some way lies in DR suffering far more mechanical DNF's?

resolve10

1,003 posts

44 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
I really don't think Ricciardo would be in a better position now if he'd stayed at Red Bull (and I say that as a fan of both). You could definitely argue that RB would have had more strategic opportunities against Mercedes with two top drivers, and Ricciardo might have had a couple more wins and half a dozen podiums to his name, but I highly doubt any of the championships would have been settled any differently.

I think Red Bull have a very strong chance at winning the constructiors championship this season. Perez is exactly what they need, he won't rock the boat and you feel he will be happy if he wins a couple of races and finishes top 4 in the drivers championship. He is also driving for a 2022 seat and a strong season gives him options, so the motivation is there.

TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
resolve10 said:
I really don't think Ricciardo would be in a better position now if he'd stayed at Red Bull (and I say that as a fan of both). You could definitely argue that RB would have had more strategic opportunities against Mercedes with two top drivers, and Ricciardo might have had a couple more wins and half a dozen podiums to his name, but I highly doubt any of the championships would have been settled any differently.

I think Red Bull have a very strong chance at winning the constructiors championship this season. Perez is exactly what they need, he won't rock the boat and you feel he will be happy if he wins a couple of races and finishes top 4 in the drivers championship. He is also driving for a 2022 seat and a strong season gives him options, so the motivation is there.
Very good chance of winning WCC?

Max took 214 points last season. If they had 'another Max' or as close as possible (perhaps Perez...) who managed the same impressive points haul... They would still have lost out to Merc in the WCC by a significant margin. Mercedes racked up 573 points last season.

It's not quite that simple of course - every extra point RB would have taken with a stronger second driver would have also removed a point from a competitor, sometimes Mercedes. Even taking that in to account, you can see it's something of a mountain to climb for anyone to beat Mercedes, especially with the cars rolling over from last year.

None of that is a criticism of RB, I think their progress last few years has been stunning and it's very impressive that they can fairly frequently split the Mercs of the podium and even win the odd race.

resolve10

1,003 posts

44 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Very good chance of winning WCC?

Max took 214 points last season. If they had 'another Max' or as close as possible (perhaps Perez...) who managed the same impressive points haul... They would still have lost out to Merc in the WCC by a significant margin. Mercedes racked up 573 points last season.

It's not quite that simple of course - every extra point RB would have taken with a stronger second driver would have also removed a point from a competitor, sometimes Mercedes. Even taking that in to account, you can see it's something of a mountain to climb for anyone to beat Mercedes, especially with the cars rolling over from last year.

None of that is a criticism of RB, I think their progress last few years has been stunning and it's very impressive that they can fairly frequently split the Mercs of the podium and even win the odd race.
It will come down to two things.

Max finished on the podium in every race he didn't DNF except Turkey (I think) - so the reliability of the car cost him a whole load of points (and second place in the WDC). Merc had 1 DNF between them if I remember rightly?! Of course reliability is part of what makes a team successful and Mercedes are very strong in that department, but if RB/Honda have a stronger year it could be very close.

The second factor is Bottas. He needs a strong start to the season for his confidence, you could see him struggling at the end of last season. If he doesn't chip in with the points, it could close the gap further.

Just to bring it slightly back on topic, it must be quite unsettling for Bottas not knowing his situation beyond this season. Mercedes 2022 line up could be HAM/BOT (unlikely IMO), BOT/RUS, HAM/RUS or even two new drivers altogether. If I picture myself as a top-tier F1 driver, (takes some imagination...), I feel I would perform a lot better with a multi year contract. Stability and direction always produce stronger results.

TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
resolve10 said:
TheDeuce said:
Very good chance of winning WCC?

Max took 214 points last season. If they had 'another Max' or as close as possible (perhaps Perez...) who managed the same impressive points haul... They would still have lost out to Merc in the WCC by a significant margin. Mercedes racked up 573 points last season.

It's not quite that simple of course - every extra point RB would have taken with a stronger second driver would have also removed a point from a competitor, sometimes Mercedes. Even taking that in to account, you can see it's something of a mountain to climb for anyone to beat Mercedes, especially with the cars rolling over from last year.

None of that is a criticism of RB, I think their progress last few years has been stunning and it's very impressive that they can fairly frequently split the Mercs of the podium and even win the odd race.
It will come down to two things.

Max finished on the podium in every race he didn't DNF except Turkey (I think) - so the reliability of the car cost him a whole load of points (and second place in the WDC). Merc had 1 DNF between them if I remember rightly?! Of course reliability is part of what makes a team successful and Mercedes are very strong in that department, but if RB/Honda have a stronger year it could be very close.

The second factor is Bottas. He needs a strong start to the season for his confidence, you could see him struggling at the end of last season. If he doesn't chip in with the points, it could close the gap further.

Just to bring it slightly back on topic, it must be quite unsettling for Bottas not knowing his situation beyond this season. Mercedes 2022 line up could be HAM/BOT (unlikely IMO), BOT/RUS, HAM/RUS or even two new drivers altogether. If I picture myself as a top-tier F1 driver, (takes some imagination...), I feel I would perform a lot better with a multi year contract. Stability and direction always produce stronger results.
You're dead right that the above factors shifting slightly could bring RB far closer to beating Mercedes in the WCC - but I don't think it's at all likely that they would actually beat them. Close but no cigar..

Mercedes don't just have the upper hand in terms of reliability with regard to scooping points each race, their impressive PU allows them to run a higher single mode across quali and race, which makes them very tough to beat in quali. That means that most races are already loaded in their favour from the start.

We're at least likely to see a particularly strong outing for RB this season. They appear to have a good second driver who should do well I think, and most importantly they have the 'same car' as last season, which should give them a strong start, compared to most seasons where they struggle to refine their design to get the best out of it in the second half of the season. So whilst I don't think it'll be enough to beat Mercedes, I do think they'll pushing them all the way. Also if Ferrari are back in the mix at the top with their new PU, I think they'll really struggle to compete with RB at the level they're at now.

Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Over the season Max was within 100.50% of Lewis median pole time, I’d say Dani Rics time would/should have been similar to Max’s time, rather than Albons at 101.50% (Dani was 101.30% In the Renault so actually quicker than Albons Red Bull). For context Checos racing point was 101.20%.

Checo is one hell of an upgrade on Albon, and even if he can get within 2/10th of Max on Saturday he will be a big threat on Sunday for the win and importantly to pick up points.

If you want to beat Merc to a WCC, you have to pick up the 2nd/3rd’s and push the second car off the podium.

The Red Bull is a very quick car, and with this engine freeze Dani could have had a shot at the title in the coming 2/3 seasons, now that will fall to Max and Checo.




TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Over the season Max was within 100.50% of Lewis median pole time, I’d say Dani Rics time would/should have been similar to Max’s time, rather than Albons at 101.50% (Dani was 101.30% In the Renault so actually quicker than Albons Red Bull). For context Checos racing point was 101.20%.

Checo is one hell of an upgrade on Albon, and even if he can get within 2/10th of Max on Saturday he will be a big threat on Sunday for the win and importantly to pick up points.

If you want to beat Merc to a WCC, you have to pick up the 2nd/3rd’s and push the second car off the podium.
That's the thing, they would need to knock the second Merc off the podium very consistently - which is extremely unlikely so long as the Mercs excel in quali. That's really the key, and it largely comes down to PU durability because it doesn't appear that RB are able to set their single mode as high as Merc have been able to - and that's with them already showing less reliability than Merc.

Deesee said:
The Red Bull is a very quick car, and with this engine freeze Dani could have had a shot at the title in the coming 2/3 seasons, now that will fall to Max and Checo.
In terms of hardware sure, but no reason to think RB wouldn't still prioritise Max..

thegreenhell

15,115 posts

218 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
If you want to beat Merc to a WCC, you have to pick up the 2nd/3rd’s and push the second car off the podium.
That's just not going to cut it. 1st/4th still outscores 2nd/3rd, and on average over the last few seasons Mercedes have had much better reliability than RBR. They are just a points scoring machine. If you want to beat them to a title then you have to at least match them win for win, and hope your second driver can consistently beat theirs. They've been nowhere near that at any time in this hybrid era, and I don't expect them to this year either.

Flooble

5,565 posts

99 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Yes, it's worth remembering that if Red Bull had had two drivers running within the Mercedes pit stop window (not 40 seconds behind) then it would have allowed them to interfere with Mercedes strategy - strategy being a weak point for Mercedes I feel - instead of Max trying to take on two drivers by himself (and thus always being covered by one or the other).

With two Red Bulls overlapping their drivers you can imagine Mercedes getting into analysis paralysis trying to decide when to pit (look at how they react, or don't, to VSC and SC periods).

DanielSan

18,746 posts

166 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
Over the season Max was within 100.50% of Lewis median pole time, I’d say Dani Rics time would/should have been similar to Max’s time, rather than Albons at 101.50% (Dani was 101.30% In the Renault so actually quicker than Albons Red Bull). For context Checos racing point was 101.20%.

Checo is one hell of an upgrade on Albon, and even if he can get within 2/10th of Max on Saturday he will be a big threat on Sunday for the win and importantly to pick up points.

If you want to beat Merc to a WCC, you have to pick up the 2nd/3rd’s and push the second car off the podium.

The Red Bull is a very quick car, and with this engine freeze Dani could have had a shot at the title in the coming 2/3 seasons, now that will fall to Max and Checo.
There's one very simple question to be asked though, will Perez get a handle on the handling of the Red Bull? Gasly couldn't manage it and in a car that he could deal with last year won a race and consistently bagged good points, quite often ahead of that other Red Bull car. If Perez has those same issues, which doesn't seem unlikely given he's only got a day and a half of testing in the actual car and it seems something correlation wise at Red Bull never seems quite right, is simulation time going to help him in any real way to get used to it faster?

If Perez doesn't get a handle on the car this season and ends up 4/5 10ths from Max evrery week what's the plan then? Everyone suddenly calling out Perez for not being very good?

TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
DanielSan said:
Deesee said:
Over the season Max was within 100.50% of Lewis median pole time, I’d say Dani Rics time would/should have been similar to Max’s time, rather than Albons at 101.50% (Dani was 101.30% In the Renault so actually quicker than Albons Red Bull). For context Checos racing point was 101.20%.

Checo is one hell of an upgrade on Albon, and even if he can get within 2/10th of Max on Saturday he will be a big threat on Sunday for the win and importantly to pick up points.

If you want to beat Merc to a WCC, you have to pick up the 2nd/3rd’s and push the second car off the podium.

The Red Bull is a very quick car, and with this engine freeze Dani could have had a shot at the title in the coming 2/3 seasons, now that will fall to Max and Checo.
There's one very simple question to be asked though, will Perez get a handle on the handling of the Red Bull? Gasly couldn't manage it and in a car that he could deal with last year won a race and consistently bagged good points, quite often ahead of that other Red Bull car. If Perez has those same issues, which doesn't seem unlikely given he's only got a day and a half of testing in the actual car and it seems something correlation wise at Red Bull never seems quite right, is simulation time going to help him in any real way to get used to it faster?

If Perez doesn't get a handle on the car this season and ends up 4/5 10ths from Max evrery week what's the plan then? Everyone suddenly calling out Perez for not being very good?
I know it seems wrong to forever blame the drivers and shift them over to the 'not very useful' pile each time they fail in the RB...

But the fact remains that Max can and does get stellar results in the same car. So whilst it's clear that the car does have some awkward traits, it's ultimately still a driver failing.

In the same way that Mercedes dominance is ultimately a failing of the others to keep up.


Deesee

8,331 posts

82 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
DanielSan said:
Deesee said:
Over the season Max was within 100.50% of Lewis median pole time, I’d say Dani Rics time would/should have been similar to Max’s time, rather than Albons at 101.50% (Dani was 101.30% In the Renault so actually quicker than Albons Red Bull). For context Checos racing point was 101.20%.

Checo is one hell of an upgrade on Albon, and even if he can get within 2/10th of Max on Saturday he will be a big threat on Sunday for the win and importantly to pick up points.

If you want to beat Merc to a WCC, you have to pick up the 2nd/3rd’s and push the second car off the podium.

The Red Bull is a very quick car, and with this engine freeze Dani could have had a shot at the title in the coming 2/3 seasons, now that will fall to Max and Checo.
There's one very simple question to be asked though, will Perez get a handle on the handling of the Red Bull? Gasly couldn't manage it and in a car that he could deal with last year won a race and consistently bagged good points, quite often ahead of that other Red Bull car. If Perez has those same issues, which doesn't seem unlikely given he's only got a day and a half of testing in the actual car and it seems something correlation wise at Red Bull never seems quite right, is simulation time going to help him in any real way to get used to it faster?

If Perez doesn't get a handle on the car this season and ends up 4/5 10ths from Max evrery week what's the plan then? Everyone suddenly calling out Perez for not being very good?
It does seem a complex car, but I think they got to the bottom of that towards the end of the year the package was strong, once they had seemingly pinned down the front of the car.

There was also a number of circuits missing that they would traditionally do well at, Brazil/Mexico (altitude with the different turbo), and circuits added that really did not suit the ERS, although they ran some superb strategies to counter that.

Checo has driven difficult cars in the past, the force india days for example.

One thing to consider he’s driven only Merc Hybrid power since 2014.

Red Bull have announced 8 of his personal sponsors, although he has not been training with the other drivers in Austria yet, (Hulk has).

I’m pretty confident Max will out quali Checo, come the GP on a Sunday, the gap will close.

aston80

264 posts

40 months

Sunday 21st February 2021
quotequote all
Deesee said:
The thing with Dani, I still can’t fathom walking away from a top team at your best years, (I understand the money), I don’t think he will ever get another top drive, he had a great 2020 and is a great driver, but unless there’s some seismic change in the balance of the grid and McLaren having a ‘dominant’ car grabbing 2/3 podiums a year is the best he can do now & he would do that in the Renault or the McLaren IMO.
He was being treated second-best constantly to Max. Must have been a horrible, demoralising environment.

TheDeuce

21,272 posts

65 months

Monday 22nd February 2021
quotequote all
aston80 said:
Deesee said:
The thing with Dani, I still can’t fathom walking away from a top team at your best years, (I understand the money), I don’t think he will ever get another top drive, he had a great 2020 and is a great driver, but unless there’s some seismic change in the balance of the grid and McLaren having a ‘dominant’ car grabbing 2/3 podiums a year is the best he can do now & he would do that in the Renault or the McLaren IMO.
He was being treated second-best constantly to Max. Must have been a horrible, demoralising environment.
I assume that was indeed the case. Partly because he himself said as much! But also, why else would he have walked!?

He was a top driver in a top car. He wouldn't give that position up unless he truly believed he wouldn't get the opportunity to make it count. As far as I'm concerned theories about him 'running away' are nonsense. He was easily an equal talent to max in the red bull.

He doesn't have the brand value to redbull that max does though. We should never forget that mighty as red bull are, the team exists first and foremost to promote fizzy energy drink sales. Max is their perfect fit in that regard, and commands an army of fans that even DR can't equal. As drivers I consider them equal - but as a PR weapon, max wins.

Sandpit Steve

9,885 posts

73 months

Monday 22nd February 2021
quotequote all
aston80 said:
He was being treated second-best constantly to Max. Must have been a horrible, demoralising environment.
Yep, it’s very easy to see why he walked.

Over the last year or so, the team had been clearly favouring Max in new parts and strategy, then rubbed it in by giving the Dutchman a five year, $100m contract while offering DR a two year, $15m deal (if you believe the rumours).

He knew he wouldn’t be allowed to mount a genuine title challenge in that environment, so took the money and the position somewhere else.

Fast forward two years, and while the decision might have cost him a couple of wins, he’s benefited from showing himself as a lead driver, enjoying successes even if they’re podiums rather than wins, and has set himself up financially for life - with a lot less stress in the process. Now, with McLaren, he’s got a genuine shout at wins this season, and could well be challenging Red Bull for second in the championship. I’d have made the same call.