Adrian Newey to Ferrari? Is it possible?

[entropy]

suffolk009 said:

entropy said:

suffolk009 said:

Muzzer79 said:

The Honda connection is odd.

I can't see how one party doesn't end up missing out marketing-wise - either AM because their F1 car is powered by a Honda engine or Honda because the Aston Martin car gets all the credit and their engine doesn't get a mention (see Renault in 2010-2013)

I still think it points to Stroll (and therefore AM) bailing out of the team in the not-too-distant future.

I cannot see Stroll owning that team in five years time. Unless the Newey car is about the win the championship by about 3/4 way through it's first season in 2026 I think he'll put it all up for sale. Sooner or later a billionaire gets bored - sooner if they're losing money - and as Executive Chairman of Aston's road cars he's yet to turn that around.

Possibly

Stroll is a car guy and has been involved in F1 since the early 90s via Tommy Hilfiger.

I think Stroll would want to be staying longer than 5 years to leave a legacy in F1. I think he wants to become the next Christian Horner, Ron Dennis, et al. and make AMF1 a dominant team.

I'm sure you're right about his aspirations. I'm just suggesting that if the F1 team's standing and the road cars fail to improve then I think he'll be off.

The history of F1 is littered with rich men's shattered dreams. Very few get to be Enzo, or Ron, or Frank, or Colin, or even Toto. Not even Horner has been that successful - he's still just an employee.

AMF1 and AM road cars are two completely different entities separate from each other.

If Stroll sells the road car business then the F1 team won't be affected - which I think is more likely the relinquishing AMF1 and another reason Newey having equity which also won't be affected.

suffolk009 said:

The history of F1 is littered with rich men's shattered dreams. Very few get to be Enzo, or Ron, or Frank, or Colin, or even Toto. Not even Horner has been that successful - he's still just an employee.

It's kinda subjective. I'd put Horner as a great success, greater than Toto IMHO who inherited Brawn's legacy. The other thing is the ownership model has changed since Ron and Frank entered F1.

[Forester1965]

entropy said:

It's kinda subjective. I'd put Horner as a great success, greater than Toto IMHO who inherited Brawn's legacy. The other thing is the ownership model has changed since Ron and Frank entered F1.

Perhaps the point being made was Horner hasn't financially benefited from his on-track achievements quite so much as you'd expect.

[TheDeuce]

suffolk009 said:

If you want to buy Aston Martin Lagonda shares, be my guest. 5 years ago £40, 3 years ago £6, 1 year ago £3.5, today £1.5. All their numbers are currently falling; car sales, revenue, EBITDA, profits. Everything seems to be going downwards except for net deb which has risen from £766 million in 2022 to currently £1,196.

I'm not an analyst, and have merely picked most of these numbers from the pages of ssoreport.com.

I would assume the plan for AM is longer than the few years since Stroll bought it.

I reckon they're coasting for now but will soon become an ultra luxury brand, beneath the 1000 cars per year threshold to avoid emissions fines and also likely to open themselves up to the ability to continue to sell ICE cars via the use of e-fuels.

I think the brand will survive but the price per car will skyrocket as they strive to limit unit sales in order to maintain exemptions.

I doubt very much that stroll, toto and Mercedes are invested in a dead duck.

[TheDeuce]

Forester1965 said:

entropy said:

It's kinda subjective. I'd put Horner as a great success, greater than Toto IMHO who inherited Brawn's legacy. The other thing is the ownership model has changed since Ron and Frank entered F1.

Perhaps the point being made was Horner hasn't financially benefited from his on-track achievements quite so much as you'd expect.

He definitely has not, which I assume is the reason for the split of opions in the team. He wants ownership. The others have no interest in his personal gain.

The Thai's love him but will they sell shares in the team? I can imagine those that don't wish for that to happen would seek to discredit him in some way. Maybe leak something to achieve as much...

[BunkMoreland]

isaldiri said:

(and even most recent history - see James Allison wanting to get out asap ....)

Err not at all what happened!

Too late, see someone else has educated you!

[skwdenyer]

entropy said:

It's kinda subjective. I'd put Horner as a great success, greater than Toto IMHO who inherited Brawn's legacy. The other thing is the ownership model has changed since Ron and Frank entered F1.

Brawn's legacy was being exceptionally lucky. As their post-Brawn performance showed, there was no strength in depth at the team. Brawn himself was clearly an able leader, and helped to put Mercedes on a path to proper success. But it is easy to be blinded by Brawn's maiden championship into thinking that the team itself was a terrific jumping-off point for Mercedes to buy into.

[Hustle_]

skwdenyer said:

entropy said:

It's kinda subjective. I'd put Horner as a great success, greater than Toto IMHO who inherited Brawn's legacy. The other thing is the ownership model has changed since Ron and Frank entered F1.

Brawn's legacy was being exceptionally lucky. As their post-Brawn performance showed, there was no strength in depth at the team. Brawn himself was clearly an able leader, and helped to put Mercedes on a path to proper success. But it is easy to be blinded by Brawn's maiden championship into thinking that the team itself was a terrific jumping-off point for Mercedes to buy into.

There was genius in recognising the potential in the car and saving the team from the abyss... but even having done that, got an engine into the car and got it to the races, the potential would've been very easily squandered given all the upheaval and churn in the team. I reckon most operations would've bungled it.

[entropy]

skwdenyer said:

entropy said:

It's kinda subjective. I'd put Horner as a great success, greater than Toto IMHO who inherited Brawn's legacy. The other thing is the ownership model has changed since Ron and Frank entered F1.

Brawn's legacy was being exceptionally lucky. As their post-Brawn performance showed, there was no strength in depth at the team. Brawn himself was clearly an able leader, and helped to put Mercedes on a path to proper success. But it is easy to be blinded by Brawn's maiden championship into thinking that the team itself was a terrific jumping-off point for Mercedes to buy into.

How successful would Merc be if Brawn wasn't at the helm in the early 2010s? He left on the eve of Merc's domination.

[suffolk009]

TheDeuce said:

suffolk009 said:

If you want to buy Aston Martin Lagonda shares, be my guest. 5 years ago £40, 3 years ago £6, 1 year ago £3.5, today £1.5. All their numbers are currently falling; car sales, revenue, EBITDA, profits. Everything seems to be going downwards except for net deb which has risen from £766 million in 2022 to currently £1,196.

I'm not an analyst, and have merely picked most of these numbers from the pages of ssoreport.com.

I would assume the plan for AM is longer than the few years since Stroll bought it.

I reckon they're coasting for now but will soon become an ultra luxury brand, beneath the 1000 cars per year threshold to avoid emissions fines and also likely to open themselves up to the ability to continue to sell ICE cars via the use of e-fuels.

I think the brand will survive but the price per car will skyrocket as they strive to limit unit sales in order to maintain exemptions.

I doubt very much that stroll, toto and Mercedes are invested in a dead duck.

I never suggested Aston was a dead duck. But the road car company (that's what I think we're both talking about here) is very seriously unwell. Perhaps also worth noting that Toto owns just 0.95% of the firm. Even at it's most generous recent valuation that's little more than £1m. Peanuts to a billionaire.

[Forester1965]

In some respects the road car company is irrelevant to the the F1 team. It has an asset value and P&L all of its own. It could just as easily be renamed Rice Krispies F1 and the world wouldn't blink. See Jaguar > Red Bull.

[thegreenhell]

suffolk009 said:

I never suggested Aston was a dead duck. But the road car company (that's what I think we're both talking about here) is very seriously unwell. Perhaps also worth noting that Toto owns just 0.95% of the firm. Even at it's most generous recent valuation that's little more than £1m. Peanuts to a billionaire.

I think he'd be disappointed if his shares were only worth £1m given he paid around £25m for them in 2020. Most of his billionaire status is only on paper anyway, tied to his ownership of the F1 team, and which itself has only risen massively in the last three or four years, so it was still a sizable chunk of cash to invest at the time.

[TheDeuce]

suffolk009 said:

TheDeuce said:

suffolk009 said:

If you want to buy Aston Martin Lagonda shares, be my guest. 5 years ago £40, 3 years ago £6, 1 year ago £3.5, today £1.5. All their numbers are currently falling; car sales, revenue, EBITDA, profits. Everything seems to be going downwards except for net deb which has risen from £766 million in 2022 to currently £1,196.

I'm not an analyst, and have merely picked most of these numbers from the pages of ssoreport.com.

I would assume the plan for AM is longer than the few years since Stroll bought it.

I reckon they're coasting for now but will soon become an ultra luxury brand, beneath the 1000 cars per year threshold to avoid emissions fines and also likely to open themselves up to the ability to continue to sell ICE cars via the use of e-fuels.

I think the brand will survive but the price per car will skyrocket as they strive to limit unit sales in order to maintain exemptions.

I doubt very much that stroll, toto and Mercedes are invested in a dead duck.

I never suggested Aston was a dead duck. But the road car company (that's what I think we're both talking about here) is very seriously unwell. Perhaps also worth noting that Toto owns just 0.95% of the firm. Even at it's most generous recent valuation that's little more than £1m. Peanuts to a billionaire.

Yes I was talking about the road car company too. It really doesn't matter how bad the numbers look today, if there's a plan to capitalise on the brand or re-purpose it in future years.

As to what the plan might be, we can only guess. I'd be surprised if there wasn't a plan that we have yet to see play out though.

[SSO]

Forester1965 said:

In some respects the road car company is irrelevant to the the F1 team. It has an asset value and P&L all of its own. It could just as easily be renamed Rice Krispies F1 and the world wouldn't blink. See Jaguar > Red Bull.

Doubt it. Stroll has been pretty public about the fact that putting the road car company's name (and paying to do it) on his F1 team's car has allowed him to raise hundreds of million of GBP in new sponsorship.

[suffolk009]

thegreenhell said:

I think he'd be disappointed if his shares were only worth £1m given he paid around £25m for them in 2020. Most of his billionaire status is only on paper anyway, tied to his ownership of the F1 team, and which itself has only risen massively in the last three or four years, so it was still a sizable chunk of cash to invest at the time.

I'm only quoting what I could find doing a quick google, happy to be told otherwise. From the most recent info I could find he owns 0.95%, and the company has market cap in Sept '24 around £1.2bn.

And I quite agree, like many very rich people much of their worth is only if they sold everything. It's never cash in a savings account.

[honda_exige]

suffolk009 said:

thegreenhell said:

I think he'd be disappointed if his shares were only worth £1m given he paid around £25m for them in 2020. Most of his billionaire status is only on paper anyway, tied to his ownership of the F1 team, and which itself has only risen massively in the last three or four years, so it was still a sizable chunk of cash to invest at the time.

I'm only quoting what I could find doing a quick google, happy to be told otherwise. From the most recent info I could find he owns 0.95%, and the company has market cap in Sept '24 around £1.2bn.

And I quite agree, like many very rich people much of their worth is only if they sold everything. It's never cash in a savings account.

0.95% of £1.2bn isn't £1mil

[suffolk009]

honda_exige said:

suffolk009 said:

thegreenhell said:

I think he'd be disappointed if his shares were only worth £1m given he paid around £25m for them in 2020. Most of his billionaire status is only on paper anyway, tied to his ownership of the F1 team, and which itself has only risen massively in the last three or four years, so it was still a sizable chunk of cash to invest at the time.

I'm only quoting what I could find doing a quick google, happy to be told otherwise. From the most recent info I could find he owns 0.95%, and the company has market cap in Sept '24 around £1.2bn.

And I quite agree, like many very rich people much of their worth is only if they sold everything. It's never cash in a savings account.

0.95% of £1.2bn isn't £1mil

True. It seems my decimal point was in the wrong place. How very embarrassing. Appologies to everyone.

[hondajack85]

Reviving this old fred for a sec.
Having seen a lot of the exhaustive Newey interviews post AM announcement,its easier to see why he made the choice.
AN made several references to the past and UK industry spiralling down while bosses talked it up.
Ferrari would have been similar constant headbutting with an incumbent mindset probably with much lost in translation.
Facilities while probably up to date are housed in what looks like the same buildings added to in a hotch potch manner over the years with no logic to the layout.
Aston martin. All brand new and well thought out. Clean slate or at least the power to clean the slate.
Lastly, it may be Italy but you are at work all day. What does the missus do all week away from everything?
England tickes all the boxes really.
TBH I think Lewis may struggle a bit at Ferrari and be clearing off whenever he can,but its good the talent is spread around a bit.
So the reverse of all those new life in the sun tv shows lol.

[PRO5T]

hondajack85 said:

its easier to see why he made the choice.

Money.

[Jasandjules]

PRO5T said:

hondajack85 said:

its easier to see why he made the choice.

Money.

And shares. Which also mean money.........