E46 M3 CSL and others falling in price....
Discussion
There is an unease, car prices are about to fall majorly, To think that you could buy a car and see it increase in value was always a pipe dream, something that would not last, how could it ? yes by all means the real rare metal will always command a premium, but run of the mill metal ? Nah.... people are starting to wake up.
Difficult to say what could happen but its not just performance cars - I think its most of the market.
I sold a motorhome a couple of years ago and to replace it now with the same model (so its 2 years older don't forget) I would have to spend 5-7k more than what I sold it for, and I got good money at the time.
I sold a motorhome a couple of years ago and to replace it now with the same model (so its 2 years older don't forget) I would have to spend 5-7k more than what I sold it for, and I got good money at the time.
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.
What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
rubystone said:
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.
What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time
s m said:
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time
It will take a bit of time, but the arse will fall out of the market.
cat with a hat said:
s m said:
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time
It will take a bit of time, but the arse will fall out of the market.
2011 price? 8k
12k?
2015 price? 20k
What does majorly mean?
ruggedscotty said:
There is an unease, car prices are about to fall majorly, To think that you could buy a car and see it increase in value was always a pipe dream, something that would not last, how could it ? yes by all means the real rare metal will always command a premium, but run of the mill metal ? Nah.... people are starting to wake up.
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
It is madness, and all based on a combination of low interest rates and cheap n easy credit.Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
If you keep saying the stock market will crash for long enough eventually you will be right. As soon as it crashes people start saying we will be in a bull market and eventually they are right too.
Very few people actually invest in cars IME. Most investors in cars will be at the very top of the market, £1M+ cars. If you look at these peoples net worth its generally into the tens of millions or more. So the reality is its not really an issue for them if their £1M car is worth £500k tomorrow. The real issue will be the rest of their investment portfolio as the rest of the markets will probably be crashing too.
So for all those who are rubbing their hands with glee about the potential for a bubble to burst and being able to say "I told you so" I hope you don't have any other investments yourself, like a pension.... house.... S&S ISAs.... oh wait you do....
The only people who can sit on their tall horse right now are the people in gold, bonds, cash etc, IMHO.
Very few people actually invest in cars IME. Most investors in cars will be at the very top of the market, £1M+ cars. If you look at these peoples net worth its generally into the tens of millions or more. So the reality is its not really an issue for them if their £1M car is worth £500k tomorrow. The real issue will be the rest of their investment portfolio as the rest of the markets will probably be crashing too.
So for all those who are rubbing their hands with glee about the potential for a bubble to burst and being able to say "I told you so" I hope you don't have any other investments yourself, like a pension.... house.... S&S ISAs.... oh wait you do....
The only people who can sit on their tall horse right now are the people in gold, bonds, cash etc, IMHO.
mike74 said:
It is madness, and all based on a combination of low interest rates and cheap n easy credit.
Also a "me too" sheep style investment strategy. Every single Ferrari car event I've been to (& it's a fair few) all the talk is which is the next car to go up and you've got to get in now.
If you ask them what if it goes down hard or down they simply say look at the numbers produced look at Chinease money look st this that and the other to the point there is no chance of it. You then say well why not sell all stocks shares and take cash out of the house to buy in... at that they smile and say no we don't want to be greedy. [say no more]
red_slr said:
If you keep saying the stock market will crash for long enough eventually you will be right. As soon as it crashes people start saying we will be in a bull market and eventually they are right too.
Very trueThere's plenty of old cars available cheaply.
The real question seems to be (for me) is, "why do lots of other people want the same old cars as me?"
SidewaysSi said:
rubystone said:
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.
What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
For a market (investment cars), that is almost totally sentiment driven with no observable depth or independent price verification (so illiquid) a crash is a distinct possibility. As we saw with the ETH flash crash last week last week, 1 order can disrupt an entire market. It's possible that the investment car market has been distorted on the upside for a while. Anyone with a warehouse full of 964s just needs to bid 1 up at auction to set a new book value for his whole position - the market was only as good as its last visible print.
The speculative end of the market is probably going to feel some pain as sentiment changes, provenance proven ultra rare exotics should be safer. Equities different market, corporate earnings in the main support prices and underlying economic performance does not support significantly more hawkish rate policy.
stongle said:
Yep, superficial at best. Rate setting is a bit more complex than headline inflation.
For a market (investment cars), that is almost totally sentiment driven with no observable depth or independent price verification (so illiquid) a crash is a distinct possibility. As we saw with the ETH flash crash last week last week, 1 order can disrupt an entire market. It's possible that the investment car market has been distorted on the upside for a while. Anyone with a warehouse full of 964s just needs to bid 1 up at auction to set a new book value for his whole position - the market was only as good as its last visible print.
The speculative end of the market is probably going to feel some pain as sentiment changes, provenance proven ultra rare exotics should be safer. Equities different market, corporate earnings in the main support prices and underlying economic performance does not support significantly more hawkish rate policy.
Eh?For a market (investment cars), that is almost totally sentiment driven with no observable depth or independent price verification (so illiquid) a crash is a distinct possibility. As we saw with the ETH flash crash last week last week, 1 order can disrupt an entire market. It's possible that the investment car market has been distorted on the upside for a while. Anyone with a warehouse full of 964s just needs to bid 1 up at auction to set a new book value for his whole position - the market was only as good as its last visible print.
The speculative end of the market is probably going to feel some pain as sentiment changes, provenance proven ultra rare exotics should be safer. Equities different market, corporate earnings in the main support prices and underlying economic performance does not support significantly more hawkish rate policy.
VonSenger said:
Eh?
Most of the economics particularly around rate policy is nonsense in this thread. And anyone claiming that the market for investment cars is the same as equities is also wrong. Low rates can lead to asset bubbles but the functioning and liquidity (of investment cars compared to equity) are completely different. The effects of macro economics or rate policy changes can act faster in less liquid markets.It's also quite probable that some of the "classic" auctions have been manipulated to benchmark prices, and now the market is cooling such tricks are not working.
Although, this suits my view as I'd be in the market for a 50k 355 or 993.
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