E46 M3 CSL and others falling in price....

E46 M3 CSL and others falling in price....

Author
Discussion

ruggedscotty

5,606 posts

208 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
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There is an unease, car prices are about to fall majorly, To think that you could buy a car and see it increase in value was always a pipe dream, something that would not last, how could it ? yes by all means the real rare metal will always command a premium, but run of the mill metal ? Nah.... people are starting to wake up.

BricktopST205

887 posts

133 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
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Thank god. I have been wanting a 205 GTi for ages but cannot justify the price. 5 years ago you could get a decent example <3K. I have always had an itch for 993 pork as well. Again 5 years ago 15-20k would buy a lovely example. Hope those crash as well!

treetops

1,177 posts

157 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
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I said a while back I knew of a few people who'd quietly "got out" and got laughed at, but it's been happening. Interest rate rise, will see this investment class fizzle away.

red_slr

17,126 posts

188 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
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Difficult to say what could happen but its not just performance cars - I think its most of the market.

I sold a motorhome a couple of years ago and to replace it now with the same model (so its 2 years older don't forget) I would have to spend 5-7k more than what I sold it for, and I got good money at the time.

rubystone

11,252 posts

258 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.

What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.

The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!

SidewaysSi

10,742 posts

233 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
rubystone said:
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.

What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.

The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!
Indeed. I love the economic analysis on this thread. And all said with such conviction.

blade7

11,311 posts

215 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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rubystone said:
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!
Where is he parking his money next then ?

e8_pack

1,384 posts

180 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Is Carney flogging his classic car collection?

lord trumpton

7,321 posts

125 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'

Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.

In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.

It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
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Chris Rvans offloaded his collection early in 2016. Smart move.

Didn't he call it "refreshing the collection".


Jimerequai however with what 80 cars might be in a spot of trouble - but I've a feeling he doesn't worry about £

s m

23,164 posts

202 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'

Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.

In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.

It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......

Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time


cat with a hat

1,484 posts

117 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
s m said:
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'

Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.

In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.

It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......

Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time
Not one person in this thread has said that.

It will take a bit of time, but the arse will fall out of the market.

s m

23,164 posts

202 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
cat with a hat said:
s m said:
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'

Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.

In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.

It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......

Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time
Not one person in this thread has said that.

It will take a bit of time, but the arse will fall out of the market.
So what's "real value" for a 20 year old Z3M coupe
2011 price? 8k
12k?
2015 price? 20k

What does majorly mean?



ruggedscotty said:
There is an unease, car prices are about to fall majorly, To think that you could buy a car and see it increase in value was always a pipe dream, something that would not last, how could it ? yes by all means the real rare metal will always command a premium, but run of the mill metal ? Nah.... people are starting to wake up.


mike74

3,687 posts

131 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'

Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.

In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.

It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
It is madness, and all based on a combination of low interest rates and cheap n easy credit.

red_slr

17,126 posts

188 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
If you keep saying the stock market will crash for long enough eventually you will be right. As soon as it crashes people start saying we will be in a bull market and eventually they are right too.

Very few people actually invest in cars IME. Most investors in cars will be at the very top of the market, £1M+ cars. If you look at these peoples net worth its generally into the tens of millions or more. So the reality is its not really an issue for them if their £1M car is worth £500k tomorrow. The real issue will be the rest of their investment portfolio as the rest of the markets will probably be crashing too.

So for all those who are rubbing their hands with glee about the potential for a bubble to burst and being able to say "I told you so" I hope you don't have any other investments yourself, like a pension.... house.... S&S ISAs.... oh wait you do....

The only people who can sit on their tall horse right now are the people in gold, bonds, cash etc, IMHO.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
mike74 said:
It is madness, and all based on a combination of low interest rates and cheap n easy credit.
Also a "me too" sheep style investment strategy.

Every single Ferrari car event I've been to (& it's a fair few) all the talk is which is the next car to go up and you've got to get in now.
If you ask them what if it goes down hard or down they simply say look at the numbers produced look at Chinease money look st this that and the other to the point there is no chance of it. You then say well why not sell all stocks shares and take cash out of the house to buy in... at that they smile and say no we don't want to be greedy. [say no more]

s m

23,164 posts

202 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
red_slr said:
If you keep saying the stock market will crash for long enough eventually you will be right. As soon as it crashes people start saying we will be in a bull market and eventually they are right too.

Very true


There's plenty of old cars available cheaply.

The real question seems to be (for me) is, "why do lots of other people want the same old cars as me?"

stongle

5,910 posts

161 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
SidewaysSi said:
rubystone said:
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.

What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.

The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!
Indeed. I love the economic analysis on this thread. And all said with such conviction.
Yep, superficial at best. Rate setting is a bit more complex than headline inflation.

For a market (investment cars), that is almost totally sentiment driven with no observable depth or independent price verification (so illiquid) a crash is a distinct possibility. As we saw with the ETH flash crash last week last week, 1 order can disrupt an entire market. It's possible that the investment car market has been distorted on the upside for a while. Anyone with a warehouse full of 964s just needs to bid 1 up at auction to set a new book value for his whole position - the market was only as good as its last visible print.

The speculative end of the market is probably going to feel some pain as sentiment changes, provenance proven ultra rare exotics should be safer. Equities different market, corporate earnings in the main support prices and underlying economic performance does not support significantly more hawkish rate policy.

VonSenger

2,465 posts

188 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
stongle said:
Yep, superficial at best. Rate setting is a bit more complex than headline inflation.

For a market (investment cars), that is almost totally sentiment driven with no observable depth or independent price verification (so illiquid) a crash is a distinct possibility. As we saw with the ETH flash crash last week last week, 1 order can disrupt an entire market. It's possible that the investment car market has been distorted on the upside for a while. Anyone with a warehouse full of 964s just needs to bid 1 up at auction to set a new book value for his whole position - the market was only as good as its last visible print.

The speculative end of the market is probably going to feel some pain as sentiment changes, provenance proven ultra rare exotics should be safer. Equities different market, corporate earnings in the main support prices and underlying economic performance does not support significantly more hawkish rate policy.
Eh?

stongle

5,910 posts

161 months

Sunday 25th June 2017
quotequote all
VonSenger said:
Eh?
Most of the economics particularly around rate policy is nonsense in this thread. And anyone claiming that the market for investment cars is the same as equities is also wrong. Low rates can lead to asset bubbles but the functioning and liquidity (of investment cars compared to equity) are completely different. The effects of macro economics or rate policy changes can act faster in less liquid markets.

It's also quite probable that some of the "classic" auctions have been manipulated to benchmark prices, and now the market is cooling such tricks are not working.

Although, this suits my view as I'd be in the market for a 50k 355 or 993.