No ICE from 2040?!?
Discussion
67Dino said:
A friend of mine is involved in RiverSimple, the first viable commercial hydrogen powered vehicle (funded by a member of the Porsche family). It uses Hydrogen in a form that is safer than petrol and the exhaust is water vapour.
http://www.riversimple.com/the-technology-behind-t...
The experts he works with are strong advocates of ending the use of fossil fuels, but don't see batteries as the right alternative. Hydrogen fuel cells are lighter, quicker to refuel, more powerful, and actually cleaner, since the energy ultimately comes from Hydrogen (which is available from water).
Today's battery powered cars may be looked back on like steam-powered ones, fluorescent bulbs and LaserDiscs. An interim technology that was on the rght track, but not the eventual solution.
I had a debate with toyota UK re: their hydrogen car on FB. I know I know- but as an EV driver I couldn't see any advantage to their car.http://www.riversimple.com/the-technology-behind-t...
The experts he works with are strong advocates of ending the use of fossil fuels, but don't see batteries as the right alternative. Hydrogen fuel cells are lighter, quicker to refuel, more powerful, and actually cleaner, since the energy ultimately comes from Hydrogen (which is available from water).
Today's battery powered cars may be looked back on like steam-powered ones, fluorescent bulbs and LaserDiscs. An interim technology that was on the rght track, but not the eventual solution.
Edited by 67Dino on Thursday 27th July 07:17
Their model is £66k. range of 320 miles. does the equivalent of 60 mpg. costs about £75 to fill up.
3 fuel stations in London.
AND its as filthy/inefficient to produce Hydrogen as it is petrol. might be water out of the tail pipe- but not at the other end.
Versus our Leaf- which doesn't do the claimed 340 mpg- but my reckoning as a tight yorkshireman, is £15/16 to do 800 miles.
Now that's what its all about.
My point to them: well done you've produced a far more expensive, impractical car that's as efficient as my 2.0 diesel. there is literally no point.
versus the wife's leaf, which I can plug in on the drive and float about in, for pence.
It's worth saying re: energy supply, we had a day recently where the UK's energy was all produced from renewables. IF technology improved where we used applicances smartly on a night, wi-fi controlled them, solar PV got cheaper and smarted and so on, you can see 20 years from now how it makes sense.
Plus, we all know, oil won't be about forever: or lets put it another way, perhaps the west doesn't want to be reliant on the unstable middle east.
But I'm not for banning petrol/diesel cars: I think they're great. Maybe, as another poster said: start with the taxi's and buses first.
fesuvious said:
Tomorrow morning I have decided to perform a fecking monster burnout in the Hellcat.
I shall then exit the car, and breathe in the smell of zorst and rubber and the Smile on my face shall be huge.
I will, at all times be thinking of this thread.
Nobody cares dude, your hellcat will be rotting in someones garage somewhere practically worthless in 23 years. Your "look at me im so rebellious" attitude is retarded.I shall then exit the car, and breathe in the smell of zorst and rubber and the Smile on my face shall be huge.
I will, at all times be thinking of this thread.
Farmboy UK said:
HKP said:
red_slr said:
If they could sort out the busses first that would be great. Also good luck running a taxi firm after 2040.
https://twitter.com/candctaxis?lang=enI think you'll find the taxi industry is rapidly realising the benefits of electric drive.
Minimal servicing, HUGELY reduced fuel spend, improved customer perception etc.
C&C Taxis have multiple vehicles over 100,000 miles and running. Off the top of my head I believe one of their Leafs is on 170,000 miles and its original battery. Continually used and rapid charged
I was thinking about this last night whilst unable to sleep and realised just what an impact this would actually have to a number of 'high worth' brands and their businesses.
Imagine you worked for any of the following...now imagine I have given you 20 years to R&D full non ICE propulsion technology (in a manner that befits the brand ethos and product ethic), retool your entire production facility/facilities and then redesign, replace and relaunch every single model in your lineup...and just to add extra pressure, you are not allowed to bankrupt the company whilst doing so. Ouch!!
Ferrari
Porsche
Bentley
Lamborghini
Aston Martin
Audi
VW
Ford
BMW
...
The more I think about this 'deadline' the more I think it will not happen. 20 years is really not that long when you look at it that way.
Imagine you worked for any of the following...now imagine I have given you 20 years to R&D full non ICE propulsion technology (in a manner that befits the brand ethos and product ethic), retool your entire production facility/facilities and then redesign, replace and relaunch every single model in your lineup...and just to add extra pressure, you are not allowed to bankrupt the company whilst doing so. Ouch!!
Ferrari
Porsche
Bentley
Lamborghini
Aston Martin
Audi
VW
Ford
BMW
...
The more I think about this 'deadline' the more I think it will not happen. 20 years is really not that long when you look at it that way.
austinsmirk said:
I had a debate with toyota UK re: their hydrogen car on FB. I know I know- but as an EV driver I couldn't see any advantage to their car.
My point to them: well done you've produced a far more expensive, impractical car that's as efficient as my 2.0 diesel. there is literally no point.
Top marks, you pissed off the intern who's probably responsible for Toyota's FB page and managed to look like a berk whilst doing it. My point to them: well done you've produced a far more expensive, impractical car that's as efficient as my 2.0 diesel. there is literally no point.
But hey, at least everyone now knows you're an 'EV driver' right?!
dvs_dave said:
All this hand wringing and denial is funny.
Why are so many people obsessed about not being able to easily charge their car on the street outside their dingy little terraced house? Today, do you fill you car up with fuel on the street outside your house? Of course you don't, you go to a petrol station.
Do you really think that by 2040, battery tech won't have moved on so that today's challenges with capacity, rare materials, size/weight and charge time won't have been solved? Of course they will have been. Just compare battery tech from 25 years ago to today. It's a staggering difference.
You will just go to a charging station and quick charge your car up for 3mins, pay the man, and then be on your way as you do with petrol today. Or much more likely, it will just drive itself to the local charging station, charge itself up, come home and park up ready for when you need it.
If you have your own drive/garage, then you will also be able to charge it there as a handy bonus. But it's by no means a pre-requisite to have such a facility.
Sounds great !Why are so many people obsessed about not being able to easily charge their car on the street outside their dingy little terraced house? Today, do you fill you car up with fuel on the street outside your house? Of course you don't, you go to a petrol station.
Do you really think that by 2040, battery tech won't have moved on so that today's challenges with capacity, rare materials, size/weight and charge time won't have been solved? Of course they will have been. Just compare battery tech from 25 years ago to today. It's a staggering difference.
You will just go to a charging station and quick charge your car up for 3mins, pay the man, and then be on your way as you do with petrol today. Or much more likely, it will just drive itself to the local charging station, charge itself up, come home and park up ready for when you need it.
If you have your own drive/garage, then you will also be able to charge it there as a handy bonus. But it's by no means a pre-requisite to have such a facility.
Edited by dvs_dave on Thursday 27th July 06:45
Except we don't (yet) have the technology or infrastructure to do it.
It's going to be expensive to run all the high capacity cables to charging stations from local subs and the effect on the grid is going to be interesting, we probably are going to have to spend a lot on changing supply and delivery systems.
I'm sure fast chargers and high capacity batteries will eventually appear, but I see an era of reduced mobility as the tech catches up (a bit like the dim period post incandescent light)
Love all the "There may be a problem, best not bother and carry on as normal" type comments
The IC engine is dying, not yet and it has served well, but it is creaking, new dawn approaching and whether there is enough Lithium, electricity, superchargers etc isnt going to make any difference to the final outcome, that is the bulk of personal and public passenger transport will be electrically powered.
The stakes are too high to ignore, Tesla has come from nowhere and given the old guard a wake up call, like Apple did with the mobile phone, taking existing/new tech, packaging it and marketing it very well.
There will be challenges, but to get to where we are with IC engines, there have been, road building, fuel infrastructure (drive past Stanlow and marvel how much work went into that)
Whoever cracks battery tech to make a charging and capacity leap forward will be very, very rich, the Saudis/Opec income stream is up for grabs and it isnt like the existing stuff isnt working anyway.
With all the new tech developments, they seem obvious once they have happened, LCD screens for example, once they had been developed and could be made at a reasonable cost, the CRT screen, always a bodge in comparison dissapeared in ten years or so, whats the point of making the old tech when nobody wants it any more ? we havent hit that just yet, well maybe we have with Volvos announcement and the 2040 announcement.
I think I may celebrate by nipping to Blockbusters to rent a Jean Claude Van Damme film on VHS !
The IC engine is dying, not yet and it has served well, but it is creaking, new dawn approaching and whether there is enough Lithium, electricity, superchargers etc isnt going to make any difference to the final outcome, that is the bulk of personal and public passenger transport will be electrically powered.
The stakes are too high to ignore, Tesla has come from nowhere and given the old guard a wake up call, like Apple did with the mobile phone, taking existing/new tech, packaging it and marketing it very well.
There will be challenges, but to get to where we are with IC engines, there have been, road building, fuel infrastructure (drive past Stanlow and marvel how much work went into that)
Whoever cracks battery tech to make a charging and capacity leap forward will be very, very rich, the Saudis/Opec income stream is up for grabs and it isnt like the existing stuff isnt working anyway.
With all the new tech developments, they seem obvious once they have happened, LCD screens for example, once they had been developed and could be made at a reasonable cost, the CRT screen, always a bodge in comparison dissapeared in ten years or so, whats the point of making the old tech when nobody wants it any more ? we havent hit that just yet, well maybe we have with Volvos announcement and the 2040 announcement.
I think I may celebrate by nipping to Blockbusters to rent a Jean Claude Van Damme film on VHS !
J4CKO said:
Love all the "There may be a problem, best not bother and carry on as normal" type comments
I don't think it won't happen - I just think that in the grand scheme of things, a huge tidal shift in terms of car production will take more than 20 years. See my post above regarding the prestige (et al) brands who have to make huge and incredibly costly changes t their entire operation...without damaging a brand that carries as much value as the vehicle if not more (Ferrari/Aston).Gonna be very interesting to see and I will definitely mourn the loss of the engine sounds and all the sensations I have grown up with and loved, but I suspect it will be longer than 20 years before it's all over.
Graphene batterys will soon be viable for use in EVs, combined with the fact that charging can be done at home at night when there is much lower demand on the grid. For longer journeys, hybrid vehicles will still be available.
Norway has decided to make the switch over by 2025 and journeys in that country are generally longer than in the UK.
Pessimists were never responsible for driving societys progression.
Norway has decided to make the switch over by 2025 and journeys in that country are generally longer than in the UK.
Pessimists were never responsible for driving societys progression.
The phrase used in the report is 'end sale of conventional petrol and diesel cars by 2040' . While many have decided thats a total ban of the internal combustion engine I think the manufacturers interpret this as 100% ICE is gone but hybrids etc.... which will deliver an amount of zero emissions to satisfy the 29 local authorities clean air plan.....are ok. Which is frankly anyway what we'll all mostly be driving in 2025-30 anyway.
Bloody government.
As a smoker, I'd say ban smoking instead but your £8 pack of cigs, is £5.48 Duty, £1.60 VAT already, and that's pretty lucrative.
Maybe they'll look at stopping people drinking instead, reduce crime, fighting etc.
Except that's well taxed as well, but a 1L bottle of smirnoff can be bought for £12.50, and £10.78 of that is Spirit Duty, then once you add VAT, pretty much that whole sale price is going to the government.
So, I think the government has realised that they can't actually tax us enough on driving.
If you bought a nice new MX5 as a bit of a sporty car, you pay just under £4k VAT, £200 first years tax, then 80p of every litre of fuel you put in (£1.10/litre), if you do 10,000 miles per year, that'll be about 1100L of petrol, so about £875 in fuel duty/vat on petrol, so they've only made £5k out of your 22k of spending. That is simply not enough to for 650 second home allowances, and then the rest of the incidentals that the country needs like "hospitals" and "schools", at least until they privatise them.
And even a new Tesla has a VED bill now, because it's list price is over £40k, so never mind the £11k of VAT you've paid, the government would like an extra £310 for the first 5 years.
I can see a Capacity Tax instead levied against electric cars, probably like £2 per KWh capacity first, because what's £2 to anyone really? So your base Tesla would be £150 per year, but then as they get more popular that would increase, to £4 per KWh, because all these cars are putting strain on the national grid, so we need to pay for those upgrades (Wait, isn't national grid already privatised? Ah well!) so it's now £300 per year, and you'll now have to pay standard 20% rate on electricity for quick charging too! Because, now you're buying a product, not a utility need!
Either that or we'll end up converting all of Africa to grow crops for bio fuels.
As a smoker, I'd say ban smoking instead but your £8 pack of cigs, is £5.48 Duty, £1.60 VAT already, and that's pretty lucrative.
Maybe they'll look at stopping people drinking instead, reduce crime, fighting etc.
Except that's well taxed as well, but a 1L bottle of smirnoff can be bought for £12.50, and £10.78 of that is Spirit Duty, then once you add VAT, pretty much that whole sale price is going to the government.
So, I think the government has realised that they can't actually tax us enough on driving.
If you bought a nice new MX5 as a bit of a sporty car, you pay just under £4k VAT, £200 first years tax, then 80p of every litre of fuel you put in (£1.10/litre), if you do 10,000 miles per year, that'll be about 1100L of petrol, so about £875 in fuel duty/vat on petrol, so they've only made £5k out of your 22k of spending. That is simply not enough to for 650 second home allowances, and then the rest of the incidentals that the country needs like "hospitals" and "schools", at least until they privatise them.
And even a new Tesla has a VED bill now, because it's list price is over £40k, so never mind the £11k of VAT you've paid, the government would like an extra £310 for the first 5 years.
I can see a Capacity Tax instead levied against electric cars, probably like £2 per KWh capacity first, because what's £2 to anyone really? So your base Tesla would be £150 per year, but then as they get more popular that would increase, to £4 per KWh, because all these cars are putting strain on the national grid, so we need to pay for those upgrades (Wait, isn't national grid already privatised? Ah well!) so it's now £300 per year, and you'll now have to pay standard 20% rate on electricity for quick charging too! Because, now you're buying a product, not a utility need!
Either that or we'll end up converting all of Africa to grow crops for bio fuels.
stubox said:
The phrase used in the report is 'end sale of conventional petrol and diesel cars by 2040' . While many have decided thats a total ban of the internal combustion engine I think the manufacturers interpret this as 100% ICE is gone but hybrids etc.... which will deliver an amount of zero emissions to satisfy the 29 local authorities clean air plan.....are ok. Which is frankly anyway what we'll all mostly be driving in 2025-30 anyway.
Not to mention LPG, LNG, ethanol and even hydrogen, but I think you are right that they will be at least hybrids.Of course vinyl has made a comeback so maybe old tech doesn't always die completely.
Gary C said:
dvs_dave said:
All this hand wringing and denial is funny.
Why are so many people obsessed about not being able to easily charge their car on the street outside their dingy little terraced house? Today, do you fill you car up with fuel on the street outside your house? Of course you don't, you go to a petrol station.
Do you really think that by 2040, battery tech won't have moved on so that today's challenges with capacity, rare materials, size/weight and charge time won't have been solved? Of course they will have been. Just compare battery tech from 25 years ago to today. It's a staggering difference.
You will just go to a charging station and quick charge your car up for 3mins, pay the man, and then be on your way as you do with petrol today. Or much more likely, it will just drive itself to the local charging station, charge itself up, come home and park up ready for when you need it.
If you have your own drive/garage, then you will also be able to charge it there as a handy bonus. But it's by no means a pre-requisite to have such a facility.
Sounds great !Why are so many people obsessed about not being able to easily charge their car on the street outside their dingy little terraced house? Today, do you fill you car up with fuel on the street outside your house? Of course you don't, you go to a petrol station.
Do you really think that by 2040, battery tech won't have moved on so that today's challenges with capacity, rare materials, size/weight and charge time won't have been solved? Of course they will have been. Just compare battery tech from 25 years ago to today. It's a staggering difference.
You will just go to a charging station and quick charge your car up for 3mins, pay the man, and then be on your way as you do with petrol today. Or much more likely, it will just drive itself to the local charging station, charge itself up, come home and park up ready for when you need it.
If you have your own drive/garage, then you will also be able to charge it there as a handy bonus. But it's by no means a pre-requisite to have such a facility.
Edited by dvs_dave on Thursday 27th July 06:45
Except we don't (yet) have the technology or infrastructure to do it.
It's going to be expensive to run all the high capacity cables to charging stations from local subs and the effect on the grid is going to be interesting, we probably are going to have to spend a lot on changing supply and delivery systems.
I'm sure fast chargers and high capacity batteries will eventually appear, but I see an era of reduced mobility as the tech catches up (a bit like the dim period post incandescent light)
The same thing will happen, driven by market forces. As more EVs join the road, more companies will invest in charging tech. I'm sure there will be some periods of imbalance but in general the supply will match the demand
67Dino said:
A friend of mine is involved in RiverSimple, the first viable commercial hydrogen powered vehicle (funded by a member of the Porsche family). It uses Hydrogen in a form that is safer than petrol and the exhaust is water vapour.
http://www.riversimple.com/the-technology-behind-t...
The experts he works with are strong advocates of ending the use of fossil fuels, but don't see batteries as the right alternative. Hydrogen fuel cells are lighter, quicker to refuel, more powerful, and actually cleaner, since the energy ultimately comes from Hydrogen (which is available from water).
Today's battery powered cars may be looked back on like steam-powered ones, fluorescent bulbs and LaserDiscs. An interim technology that was on the rght track, but not the eventual solution.
As soon as someone cracks non-lithium batteries, such as aluminium or graphene, EVs will take off, given how plentiful both aluminium and carbon are. People will look at lithium batteries like laser disc etc.http://www.riversimple.com/the-technology-behind-t...
The experts he works with are strong advocates of ending the use of fossil fuels, but don't see batteries as the right alternative. Hydrogen fuel cells are lighter, quicker to refuel, more powerful, and actually cleaner, since the energy ultimately comes from Hydrogen (which is available from water).
Today's battery powered cars may be looked back on like steam-powered ones, fluorescent bulbs and LaserDiscs. An interim technology that was on the rght track, but not the eventual solution.
Edited by 67Dino on Thursday 27th July 07:17
grumpy52 said:
Will they have sorted all the pollution problems of the manufacture of the battery systems by 2040 ?
Let alone the recycling of all the toxic stuff from knackered electric cars and batteries.
Our national grid can barely cope with demand during peak times at the moment.
Imagine 30 million vehicles being plugged into the grid in the evenings.
By 2040 we might of finished the public enquiries into where the next new power station is going to be built .
The average daily mileage per car in 2013 was 21 miles. This means a full charge on a current EV every 6 or 7 days. Assuming extended range by 2040, you could be looking at only 2-3 million full car charges per day.Let alone the recycling of all the toxic stuff from knackered electric cars and batteries.
Our national grid can barely cope with demand during peak times at the moment.
Imagine 30 million vehicles being plugged into the grid in the evenings.
By 2040 we might of finished the public enquiries into where the next new power station is going to be built .
This charging happens during the small hours - probably not going to use any more power than all the kettles, TVs and lights operating at 8pm.
lowdrag said:
Farmboy UK said:
Exactly, you must have stopped at least three times. If that's the case, you could have made the journey in a tesla!
Even if hypothetically it wasn't possible, the car market is not driven by the 0.01% of people that make 1000 mile journeys
Well, no actually. I've done that run a few times, to Alicante and back, and can do it on one stop. That particular run was foiled by a big queue at the border and I have done it faster. But no matter, I am very impressed by the technical answers here that seem to indicate that in future we will be able to do long runs comfortably with zero pollution. I just wonder where all the electricity is coming from though. The UK is already talking of shortages in the forseeable future.Even if hypothetically it wasn't possible, the car market is not driven by the 0.01% of people that make 1000 mile journeys
But, with dynamic charging on it's way, it will become a lesser issue even further.
As for Electricity, the UK has theoretical shortages because we shutdown fossil fuel power stations but didn't replace. Nuclear is the viable future, and once the boffins crack fusion technology, it will be fine. All technologies move forward.
rampageturke said:
fesuvious said:
Tomorrow morning I have decided to perform a fecking monster burnout in the Hellcat.
I shall then exit the car, and breathe in the smell of zorst and rubber and the Smile on my face shall be huge.
I will, at all times be thinking of this thread.
Nobody cares dude, your hellcat will be rotting in someones garage somewhere practically worthless in 23 years. Your "look at me im so rebellious" attitude is retarded.I shall then exit the car, and breathe in the smell of zorst and rubber and the Smile on my face shall be huge.
I will, at all times be thinking of this thread.
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