No ICE from 2040?!?
Discussion
gndr said:
They will ban Petrol & Diesels by 2040 as result of pollution deaths, but won't ban smoking. Which arguably is the root cause of more deaths?
Smoking is different but similar , it is up to the individual to choose and has been legislated against so it minimizes the effect on others via it being banned in various public places, driving an IC engined car has the potential to affect others in the same way through second hand smoke.They wont get banned anyway, the classic car industry is pretty big, it will be a case of legislation for new vehicles, the bulk of cars being bought now will be scrapped or otherwise finished in 10 to 15 years, so the constant churn will mean the UK's car fleet, over time will shift based on the policies and buying preferences, enthusiast driven cars, classics, sports or whatever are pretty insignificant in terms of emissions as generally only driven occasionally and for shorter distances, its the town centres full of diesels that are the problem, along with trucks and buses.
It will be a gradual shift like those threads about cars you never see anymore, I saw a Peugeot 405 the other day, not seen one in ages, there will be a day when we marvel at seeing a Golf GTD still around or 320D M Sport in a sea of electric stuff, getting nostalgic over a waft of diesel fumes like I do now when my neighbour starts his Austin Healey and I get a waft of uncatalysed exhaust.
Bonefish Blues said:
J4CKO said:
Remember how quickly turbo diesels became so popular ? I think once people cotton on to EV car, when it becomes so compelling they can't ignore them, then IC engined cars will get dropped very quickly, its early days yet but a lot can happen in 22 and a bit years.
22 years ago was 1995, pretty much when diesel was taking off, the Mondeo was still quite new, it's a long time ago, a lot has happened so I can't see this being that much of an issue, diesel will have died out except for haulage and that kind of stuff, petrols will be hybrids or range extenders, but the vast majority of personal transport will be electric.
Pretty much this.22 years ago was 1995, pretty much when diesel was taking off, the Mondeo was still quite new, it's a long time ago, a lot has happened so I can't see this being that much of an issue, diesel will have died out except for haulage and that kind of stuff, petrols will be hybrids or range extenders, but the vast majority of personal transport will be electric.
When I heard the news this morning, several things passed through my mind almost automatically:
- OK, it's inevitable, and interesting that ot comes out two days after the announcement that the government is investing £500m in battery technology for storing renewable energy- it almost looks like joined up government thinking, but I can't suspend belief that far.
- Even if we can resolve storaget, there will need to be a significant increase in electricity production if we want to remain mobile, and there is only so much space for wind and solar farms. Has anyone done the maths? Nuclear will be the only "clean" method with the capacity?
- We already have significant number of lorries to transport goods we order on-line. Will there be EVs that can pull 38 tonnes of whatever for significant distances? How much pollution is down to lorries?
- I have done 450 miles on business so far this week. I have wide access to video and phone communications, but that hasn't minimised the need for my travel. If we could crack that problem (which was being talked about 20 years ago and needs as much mindset and structural change as EVs) then maybe we alleviate the demand side rather than focus on the supply side.
- OK, it's inevitable, and interesting that ot comes out two days after the announcement that the government is investing £500m in battery technology for storing renewable energy- it almost looks like joined up government thinking, but I can't suspend belief that far.
- Even if we can resolve storaget, there will need to be a significant increase in electricity production if we want to remain mobile, and there is only so much space for wind and solar farms. Has anyone done the maths? Nuclear will be the only "clean" method with the capacity?
- We already have significant number of lorries to transport goods we order on-line. Will there be EVs that can pull 38 tonnes of whatever for significant distances? How much pollution is down to lorries?
- I have done 450 miles on business so far this week. I have wide access to video and phone communications, but that hasn't minimised the need for my travel. If we could crack that problem (which was being talked about 20 years ago and needs as much mindset and structural change as EVs) then maybe we alleviate the demand side rather than focus on the supply side.
This won't be happening by 2040 if ever. I love these snap decision made by a current government to appease someone. No thought given to the loss of tax take on fuel, the raw materials required to make the batteries which we all know don't cause any damage to anyone oh and then there are those oil industry types who of course will just accept a government killing their business I'm sure they won't be lobbying to prevent this.
But yes time to stockpile a few nice Petrol cars before 2040 we can still be using them well into the future if this ever did materialise.
But yes time to stockpile a few nice Petrol cars before 2040 we can still be using them well into the future if this ever did materialise.
What a government promises to do in 5 years time is irrelevant, let alone 25 years!
I suspect one of two things will happen by then: either EVs will really take off and ICE powered cars will make up such a small proportion of the new-car market that banning them would be completely pointless or EVs and/or their infrastructure wont really advance enough and banning ICEs simply wont work.
I suspect one of two things will happen by then: either EVs will really take off and ICE powered cars will make up such a small proportion of the new-car market that banning them would be completely pointless or EVs and/or their infrastructure wont really advance enough and banning ICEs simply wont work.
BoRED S2upid said:
... oh and then there are those oil industry types who of course will just accept a government killing their business I'm sure they won't be lobbying to prevent this.
Interesting to see that the floating wind turbines being towed across the North Sea were all branded Statoil.Konrod said:
When I heard the news this morning, several things passed through my mind almost automatically:
- OK, it's inevitable, and interesting that ot comes out two days after the announcement that the government is investing £500m in battery technology for storing renewable energy- it almost looks like joined up government thinking, but I can't suspend belief that far.
- Even if we can resolve storaget, there will need to be a significant increase in electricity production if we want to remain mobile, and there is only so much space for wind and solar farms. Has anyone done the maths? Nuclear will be the only "clean" method with the capacity?
- We already have significant number of lorries to transport goods we order on-line. Will there be EVs that can pull 38 tonnes of whatever for significant distances? How much pollution is down to lorries?
- I have done 450 miles on business so far this week. I have wide access to video and phone communications, but that hasn't minimised the need for my travel. If we could crack that problem (which was being talked about 20 years ago and needs as much mindset and structural change as EVs) then maybe we alleviate the demand side rather than focus on the supply side.
There wasnt a fossil fuel infrastructure when the IC first came about, that got sorted fairly quickly once the demand was there, this is what humans do, adapt, rethink and sometimes move mountains to make stuff happen, look at what has been done, man on the moon, supersonic flight, massive canals, pyramids, a few chargers and a bit more juice isnt such a big deal.- OK, it's inevitable, and interesting that ot comes out two days after the announcement that the government is investing £500m in battery technology for storing renewable energy- it almost looks like joined up government thinking, but I can't suspend belief that far.
- Even if we can resolve storaget, there will need to be a significant increase in electricity production if we want to remain mobile, and there is only so much space for wind and solar farms. Has anyone done the maths? Nuclear will be the only "clean" method with the capacity?
- We already have significant number of lorries to transport goods we order on-line. Will there be EVs that can pull 38 tonnes of whatever for significant distances? How much pollution is down to lorries?
- I have done 450 miles on business so far this week. I have wide access to video and phone communications, but that hasn't minimised the need for my travel. If we could crack that problem (which was being talked about 20 years ago and needs as much mindset and structural change as EVs) then maybe we alleviate the demand side rather than focus on the supply side.
Renewables are coming on stream fairly regularly, the percentage generated by renewables is going up, there are loads of options, it just needs investment and time to implement, it is happening.
Battery tech, range, charge time and the like will improve with each iteration, look how IC cars have improved, they will become more viable for more people with every generation, they will become so compelling that buying an IC car will not seem like an option, unless you have a very specific requirement, most dont do 450 miles a week, and to be honest, if its less than 100 miles a day, an EV is viable, Teslas will do nearer 200, and you can always charge it up, putting fuel in takes time, electricity takes longer but there are long periods when the car is stood still.
At the moment EV's journies just need a bit more planning, however, that will change, quite a lot of fuel stations have already closed, more will do and become car washes like all the others as EV take up gets higher, there will be more chargers and the anxiety will be for getting fossil fuel eventually as there just wont be as many filling stations.
Is anyone really surprised? I doubt there'll be many new models launched after 2025 which are not fully electric. Manufacturers will limp on a number of hybrids until battery range exceeds a typical diesel tank but there is so much investment in battery tech now that that can't be long off.
I wonder how petrol and diesel will still be made available for classic car/commercial enthusiasts. Home delivery in barrels and hand pumped perhaps?
Just to add - I think that petrol stations will transform to offer very rapid charging. This will overcome the issue of not everyone having a driveway and access to a plug and there is enough money in those stores to make the investment worthwhile.
I wonder how petrol and diesel will still be made available for classic car/commercial enthusiasts. Home delivery in barrels and hand pumped perhaps?
Just to add - I think that petrol stations will transform to offer very rapid charging. This will overcome the issue of not everyone having a driveway and access to a plug and there is enough money in those stores to make the investment worthwhile.
Edited by Hitch on Wednesday 26th July 10:00
jeremyh1 said:
Amazing when I post these comments on here I get 10 people disagree then another 10 pm me agreeing with me but they would rather not post the comments on here
My comment had nothing to do with your views on the way cars are heading, I agree entirely.It was more about your "most of you will have grown up or gone to college by then" I was responding too.
I am pretty sure that most of us are past college age, by quite a margin!
Inevitable. I think we'll see the death of the IC engine a lot sooner than you think. This is a wake up call to manufacturers and as someone said a couple of posts before, probably around 2025 all car makers will shift to hybrid and electric.
I wonder what the future holds for all the petrol and diesel cars currently out there. Maybe a case of the gov't introducing a mix of mandatory and voluntary scrappage schemes and then hiking the price of fuel, tax and insurance for the ones that remain? Hope not though!
I wonder what the future holds for all the petrol and diesel cars currently out there. Maybe a case of the gov't introducing a mix of mandatory and voluntary scrappage schemes and then hiking the price of fuel, tax and insurance for the ones that remain? Hope not though!
As mentioned by others above, there is little point worrying about what a government has decided to do in a quarter of a century's time.
I hope buses, taxis, and lorries become EVs. I expect most cars will.
Twenty five years from now cars will be mostly autonomous - the potential near elimination of accidents is too appealing to ignore. Even if you drive yourself, motorways and main roads will be autonomous only. You can will take over on the slip road and automatically joing you onto a road-train. The cars will be able to drive with 1m space between bumpers at safe speeds of over 100mph. They will recharge themselves with induction cuircuits laid into the road surface. Such technology will be able to increase traffic quantity on motorways many fold. (Thus; nobody will ever travel on HS2.)
My half dozen old cars will become even more expensive to run around the country lanes. People's attitudes will polarize towards old cars - much as they have towards horses on the road.
I cannot think of an instance when the government has banned or forced people to give up something like ICE cars. They can discourage you from entering citys, (I happen to think charging for such access is morally wrong as it hits the lowest paid unfairly) but they cannot force anyone to actually scrap their cars.
Personally, I'd be quite happy driving an EV everyday. Doesn't bother me. Charging and range are the only concerns. I'll miss being able to buy a new petrol sports car - but I expect the EVs will prove just as exciting in new and different ways.
Shocking to think that one day, and in my lifetime, that the new Lotus Elise in 2020 (assuming it's not a hybrid) will seem more outdated and irrelevant than even my old Model T does now.
I hope buses, taxis, and lorries become EVs. I expect most cars will.
Twenty five years from now cars will be mostly autonomous - the potential near elimination of accidents is too appealing to ignore. Even if you drive yourself, motorways and main roads will be autonomous only. You can will take over on the slip road and automatically joing you onto a road-train. The cars will be able to drive with 1m space between bumpers at safe speeds of over 100mph. They will recharge themselves with induction cuircuits laid into the road surface. Such technology will be able to increase traffic quantity on motorways many fold. (Thus; nobody will ever travel on HS2.)
My half dozen old cars will become even more expensive to run around the country lanes. People's attitudes will polarize towards old cars - much as they have towards horses on the road.
I cannot think of an instance when the government has banned or forced people to give up something like ICE cars. They can discourage you from entering citys, (I happen to think charging for such access is morally wrong as it hits the lowest paid unfairly) but they cannot force anyone to actually scrap their cars.
Personally, I'd be quite happy driving an EV everyday. Doesn't bother me. Charging and range are the only concerns. I'll miss being able to buy a new petrol sports car - but I expect the EVs will prove just as exciting in new and different ways.
Shocking to think that one day, and in my lifetime, that the new Lotus Elise in 2020 (assuming it's not a hybrid) will seem more outdated and irrelevant than even my old Model T does now.
Not that I can be bothered to find them this morning, but I was always of the understanding that studies showed that private vehicles only counted for a small amount of 'road' pollution anyway - that trucks/buses were by far the worst offenders. You could cut something like 1/3rd of local pollution by removing all buses? Regardless, it is what it is.
Given I will be approaching retirement age when this arbitrary deadline takes effect (no V12 Ferrari retirement gift for me! Ha) this little 'reminder' has just made me all the more determined to tick a few things off my list sooner rather than later. The Ring, Spa, Euro road trip etc.
Enjoy the now, ladies and gents - the future will be ok, but it is unlikely to contain the things you currently covet as a petrolhead.
Given I will be approaching retirement age when this arbitrary deadline takes effect (no V12 Ferrari retirement gift for me! Ha) this little 'reminder' has just made me all the more determined to tick a few things off my list sooner rather than later. The Ring, Spa, Euro road trip etc.
Enjoy the now, ladies and gents - the future will be ok, but it is unlikely to contain the things you currently covet as a petrolhead.
What utter b
ks. It is ridiculous that politics is trying to drive technology, when it should be the other way around. This only shows how short-sighted politicians are and how they refuse to see the big picture.
- How do they know that the EV technology (mainly battery capacity) will be advanced enough by then that it will allow the same sort of range and charging speed as today's ICE powered cars? Or do they expect that the public will just accept that a journey from London to Birmingham will from then on be a 2 day trip?
- They refuse to see that the chunk of the pollution generated by transport vehicles is not contributed to passenger cars, but lorries and ships, which has been shown by not one study. Surely, you can't expect fully electric trucks or ships by 2040. The required range will just be impossible to achieve, so these will remain diesel with 99.9% certainty.
- If for the sake of argument everyone switches to electric, where is all the electricity come from? Politicians miss the fact that most of the electricity is produced by oil, gas and coal these days. With this technology, the well-to-wheel efficiency of electric vehicles has time and again been shown to be much poorer than gasoline and diesel cars (I should know, I work in this field). Unless we build tens of nuclear power plants (which we won't, once again because of populim, eve though they are statistically the safest and best long term solution of our energy needs. The French got that one right.) I just don't see how burning oil and gas to power cars will reduce pollution at all. In fact, i expect it to get worse. I don't believe that by 2040 we will have solved the renewable energy problem.
In conclusion, stupid decision, which might or might not get implemented, that will get us nowhere in terms of producing the benefits they tell people will be possible... Unless there is a breakthrough in battery and energy production technology. But you can't legislate for that...
ks. It is ridiculous that politics is trying to drive technology, when it should be the other way around. This only shows how short-sighted politicians are and how they refuse to see the big picture.- How do they know that the EV technology (mainly battery capacity) will be advanced enough by then that it will allow the same sort of range and charging speed as today's ICE powered cars? Or do they expect that the public will just accept that a journey from London to Birmingham will from then on be a 2 day trip?
- They refuse to see that the chunk of the pollution generated by transport vehicles is not contributed to passenger cars, but lorries and ships, which has been shown by not one study. Surely, you can't expect fully electric trucks or ships by 2040. The required range will just be impossible to achieve, so these will remain diesel with 99.9% certainty.
- If for the sake of argument everyone switches to electric, where is all the electricity come from? Politicians miss the fact that most of the electricity is produced by oil, gas and coal these days. With this technology, the well-to-wheel efficiency of electric vehicles has time and again been shown to be much poorer than gasoline and diesel cars (I should know, I work in this field). Unless we build tens of nuclear power plants (which we won't, once again because of populim, eve though they are statistically the safest and best long term solution of our energy needs. The French got that one right.) I just don't see how burning oil and gas to power cars will reduce pollution at all. In fact, i expect it to get worse. I don't believe that by 2040 we will have solved the renewable energy problem.
In conclusion, stupid decision, which might or might not get implemented, that will get us nowhere in terms of producing the benefits they tell people will be possible... Unless there is a breakthrough in battery and energy production technology. But you can't legislate for that...
Salamura said:
What utter bks. It is ridiculous that politics is trying to drive technology, when it should be the other way around. This only shows how short-sighted politicians are and how they refuse to see the big picture.
- How do they know that the EV technology (mainly battery capacity) will be advanced enough by then that it will allow the same sort of range and charging speed as today's ICE powered cars? Or do they expect that the public will just accept that a journey from London to Birmingham will from then on be a 2 day trip?
- They refuse to see that the chunk of the pollution generated by transport vehicles is not contributed to passenger cars, but lorries and ships, which has been shown by not one study. Surely, you can't expect fully electric trucks or ships by 2040. The required range will just be impossible to achieve, so these will remain diesel with 99.9% certainty.
- If for the sake of argument everyone switches to electric, where is all the electricity come from? Politicians miss the fact that most of the electricity is produced by oil, gas and coal these days. With this technology, the well-to-wheel efficiency of electric vehicles has time and again been shown to be much poorer than gasoline and diesel cars (I should know, I work in this field). Unless we build tens of nuclear power plants (which we won't, once again because of populim, eve though they are statistically the safest and best long term solution of our energy needs. The French got that one right.) I just don't see how burning oil and gas to power cars will reduce pollution at all. In fact, i expect it to get worse. I don't believe that by 2040 we will have solved the renewable energy problem.
In conclusion, stupid decision, which might or might not get implemented, that will get us nowhere in terms of producing the benefits they tell people will be possible... Unless there is a breakthrough in battery and energy production technology. But you can't legislate for that...
They know that they will be advanced enough by then because the manufacturers are already producing the cars ks. It is ridiculous that politics is trying to drive technology, when it should be the other way around. This only shows how short-sighted politicians are and how they refuse to see the big picture.- How do they know that the EV technology (mainly battery capacity) will be advanced enough by then that it will allow the same sort of range and charging speed as today's ICE powered cars? Or do they expect that the public will just accept that a journey from London to Birmingham will from then on be a 2 day trip?
- They refuse to see that the chunk of the pollution generated by transport vehicles is not contributed to passenger cars, but lorries and ships, which has been shown by not one study. Surely, you can't expect fully electric trucks or ships by 2040. The required range will just be impossible to achieve, so these will remain diesel with 99.9% certainty.
- If for the sake of argument everyone switches to electric, where is all the electricity come from? Politicians miss the fact that most of the electricity is produced by oil, gas and coal these days. With this technology, the well-to-wheel efficiency of electric vehicles has time and again been shown to be much poorer than gasoline and diesel cars (I should know, I work in this field). Unless we build tens of nuclear power plants (which we won't, once again because of populim, eve though they are statistically the safest and best long term solution of our energy needs. The French got that one right.) I just don't see how burning oil and gas to power cars will reduce pollution at all. In fact, i expect it to get worse. I don't believe that by 2040 we will have solved the renewable energy problem.
In conclusion, stupid decision, which might or might not get implemented, that will get us nowhere in terms of producing the benefits they tell people will be possible... Unless there is a breakthrough in battery and energy production technology. But you can't legislate for that...
There are more than 20 years left to produce the infrastructure and that is more than enough
Gilhooligan said:
It'll be interesting to know how, in the future, the electricity grid is going to cope with all this extra demand from EVs. We are already getting quite close to peak demand exceeding peak generating capcity.
Yeah, nobody has though of that and the capacity is completely fixed....As Oil use dwindles, what are all those companies that extract and flog it going to do ? sit there going "Please buy my lovely oil, several palaces to support and the Trillions are running out", or will they take a sudden and all consuming interest in providing energy for what comes next ?
Are folk going to put up with their hairdryer not coming on, lights going off or the telly going dark during the Game of Thrones season 22 finale ?
Does the surface of the earth get hit by vast amounts of solar energy every day, of which we harvest, tiny, tiny amounts, do the tides come in and out, does the wind blow ?
Do we already have a massive electricity distribution system in place ?
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