RE: Endangered species: PH Blog
Wednesday 20th September 2017
The other week I went directly from a weekend watching livestreamed Goodwood Revival racing with my four-year-old to attending the Frankfurt motor show. Two more contrasting visions of modern attitudes to motor cars you couldn't really imagine but I know which one says more about their future, at least for the likes of us. And it wasn't Frankfurt.
How can carefully-packaged nostalgia really be more relevant than an expo with all the latest cars and tech? Put simply I reckon it's because events like Goodwood represent how we will get to use and enjoy our cars in the future, given we're the last generation likely to have an appreciation of driving internal combustion powered vehicles. And the freedom to drive them when, where and how we want.
But I was at the show with Mercedes and throughout the various press conferences, interviews and other presentations it's clear we have officially entered the age of managed decline for the internal combustion engine. Nothing new here of course, it's tacitly been going on for a while. But the sense of massive brands like Mercedes-Benz finally acknowledging it was clear. Even the Project One hypercar - an F1 engined road car for crying out loud! - was on-message with the electrically powered future. The whoops and cheers when it arrived on stage were heartfelt but the real corporate fuss was directed at the Smart Vision EQ ForTwo concept, which was basically Tinder and Uber combined in one autonomously driven package. I think the musical theatre used to present it was inspired by La La Land's sense of joyous escapism but, for me, it looked more like something out of Black Mirror's terrifying near-future dystopia. I doubt Charlie Brooker is lacking inspiration for the next series. But he might want to check out the press presentation anyway.
Bringing me back to the Revival. My dad saw the steam engines he spotted as a kid steadily phased out and replaced by diesels and electrics. The love of steam has stayed with him and one of his retirement 'jobs' is volunteering on the North York Moors Railway. Like many of his generation he will of course have realised that steam trains were noisy, polluting, outdated and inefficient compared with the modern replacements. And even at the time their days were numbered. They've since disappeared from mainstream life but his passion for them remains as strong as it always was.
Endangered species: PH Blog
Are we really the last generation of drivers?
Sure, there were plenty of cars to get excited about at Frankfurt. A new Renaultsport Megane, Hyundai's entry to the hot hatch market, a wingless 911 GT3, a 600hp BMW M5 and rear-wheel drive Audi R8 all indicate a steady supply of exciting petrol-powered cars for the near future. And those of the last 20 years or so will doubtless keep the PH classifieds humming for a good time yet. Nor do I think we'll be stuck for conversation about them in the forums.
And I reckon we're there, or thereabouts, with cars. By the time my lad grows up the likes of us will appear like those oily, coal-dust stained chaps who drive old trains up and down branch lines, our only chance to really enjoy our cars likely to be Goodwood style events run like the air shows at which we now glimpse Spitfires, Hurricanes and the odd Cold War jet strutting their stuff.
Am I right though? Or do I just need to stop moping and go for a drive? Before it's too late and all that.
Dan
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[Goodwood Revival photos by Goodwood]
Discussion
Yep, that's about where we are (and not just for cars, speaking as someone who mucks about in the air as well as on the roads). We're in the decline-and-fall phase of this being a large scale cultural obsession. 20 years from now an interest in cars as playthings, and in driving as an exercise of kinetic skill, will be in the same category as horse riding today.
Although it's worth remembering few people owned their own steam engine or prop plane! I think it'll be around a lot longer but it'll be phased out. The first big change will be when they decide non autonomous cars can't use motorways anymore. That will be truly the start of the end.
Dan, I fear there is much truth in what you say.
I am a petrolhead but work in the rail industry - so I can identify with a lot in your article.
As you say, there's no rational explanation for a steam train (or "kettle", as we know them), but still they make people happy. They're difficult to drive, slow, noisy, smelly and usually leak various fluids. They require specialist planning to run on our network and cause traffic congestion wherever they go (on rail and road, usually). But they're great, aren't they?
Modern cars have been engineered to remove as much of the driver input as possible: sat nav means we don't need to read maps; driver aids mean we don't have to think too much; auto / semi-auto gearboxes mean we don't have to be aware of engine or road speeds etc, etc... Don't get me wrong: technological development is essential, but we need to maintain a basic understanding of what cars are about.
The other day I was travelling along a single carriageway A road of a decent width when an ambulance appeared in my rear view mirror. I moved into the kerbside slightly, as I was taught to do, in order to allow it to pass. I nearly rear-ended the car in front who immediately stopped when he saw the ambulance, as if in a trance. The car coming the other way did exactly the same thing - stopped on the spot. Trouble was, they were opposite each other so the ambulance was unable to pass even if it tried. Two drivers with very little road awareness - both isolated from their surroundings and in new cars stuffed full of driver aids to make driving "easier".
I'm not suggesting we all go back to driving Morris Minors, but it's been 32 years since I passed my driving test and I'd be interested to do it again, to see what the current generation of drivers has to contend with.
I am a petrolhead but work in the rail industry - so I can identify with a lot in your article.
As you say, there's no rational explanation for a steam train (or "kettle", as we know them), but still they make people happy. They're difficult to drive, slow, noisy, smelly and usually leak various fluids. They require specialist planning to run on our network and cause traffic congestion wherever they go (on rail and road, usually). But they're great, aren't they?
Modern cars have been engineered to remove as much of the driver input as possible: sat nav means we don't need to read maps; driver aids mean we don't have to think too much; auto / semi-auto gearboxes mean we don't have to be aware of engine or road speeds etc, etc... Don't get me wrong: technological development is essential, but we need to maintain a basic understanding of what cars are about.
The other day I was travelling along a single carriageway A road of a decent width when an ambulance appeared in my rear view mirror. I moved into the kerbside slightly, as I was taught to do, in order to allow it to pass. I nearly rear-ended the car in front who immediately stopped when he saw the ambulance, as if in a trance. The car coming the other way did exactly the same thing - stopped on the spot. Trouble was, they were opposite each other so the ambulance was unable to pass even if it tried. Two drivers with very little road awareness - both isolated from their surroundings and in new cars stuffed full of driver aids to make driving "easier".
I'm not suggesting we all go back to driving Morris Minors, but it's been 32 years since I passed my driving test and I'd be interested to do it again, to see what the current generation of drivers has to contend with.
Turbobanana said:
The other day I was travelling along a single carriageway A road of a decent width when an ambulance appeared in my rear view mirror. I moved into the kerbside slightly, as I was taught to do, in order to allow it to pass. I nearly rear-ended the car in front who immediately stopped when he saw the ambulance, as if in a trance. The car coming the other way did exactly the same thing - stopped on the spot. Trouble was, they were opposite each other so the ambulance was unable to pass even if it tried. Two drivers with very little road awareness - both isolated from their surroundings and in new cars stuffed full of driver aids to make driving "easier".
This exact thing happened to me this morning!Long straight carriage way and the driver in front stopped dead, the ambulance was a good 500 yards away!
if they had pulled to the left slightly as did the oncoming car to the right then the ambulance would have breezed past whilst we continued on our journey.
Absolutely. Even on PH it seems some are obsessed with all the things that the marketing types dream up. The fancy cup holders, integration with various apps, all seem to be very appealing but talk about power to weight, performance and you may as well be chatting to your goldfish. What chance then do the manufacturers have with those that talk about cars as 'transport' as 'red or green things', I tell you, it's a dying trend. It all starts with the kids, I spent hours as a child reading Autocar and getting brochures from the local car and motorcycle dealers, the modern 8 year old is more likely playing Minecraft. The general lack of interest in how anything actually works and the disposable society we live in fuels this need for generic boxes. How many people even work on a car, you used to have to do it, and frequently as they were rubbish 
Over the weekend I was at a car show. Not knocking the modern cars but they all sounded so daft, the engineered parps and bangs, it's just leaving me cold. In and around this examples of innovation from every era. Steam, aero engined and everything in between. The age of the car enthusiast is in decline.
Over the weekend I was at a car show. Not knocking the modern cars but they all sounded so daft, the engineered parps and bangs, it's just leaving me cold. In and around this examples of innovation from every era. Steam, aero engined and everything in between. The age of the car enthusiast is in decline. Turbobanana said:
I'm not suggesting we all go back to driving Morris Minors...
Slightly off topic, but I had a dream the other day about electrifying one of these.Maybe it was a nightmare.
Sadly I agree with the tone of the article.It may happen slower than we think (especially given the momentum in the last 12 months), but it's pretty much inevitable one way or another. Most likely via death by 1000 cuts (i.e. tax rises) rather than chucking people off the motorway in 2 years time, though
I think the only thing that will prevent the full on demise of IC is rejection of EV in specialist machinery. For example if Manufacturers like Ferrari or Lambo stick to hybridisation to comply with emissions regulation then you'll see an 'automatic watch' style continuation of the proper engine in the enthusiast market
Sadly Ferrari looks more and more like they're readying themselves for the switch to being purely a brand driven vehicle to carry on selling cars when there's no longer any means to differentiate their product with noise and driver involvement
That said I was watching an Aston Vulcan pounding around Snetterton yesterday and I saw the future of our hobby. I can see the niche anachronistic side of the industry flourishing, and despite people bemoaning that petrol heads are a dying breed there are a LOT of us around, and in my scope of friends it's all being passed onto the next generation too in the same way that equestrianism seems to.
I'm glass is half full, change is happening but we're not doomed
Sadly Ferrari looks more and more like they're readying themselves for the switch to being purely a brand driven vehicle to carry on selling cars when there's no longer any means to differentiate their product with noise and driver involvement
That said I was watching an Aston Vulcan pounding around Snetterton yesterday and I saw the future of our hobby. I can see the niche anachronistic side of the industry flourishing, and despite people bemoaning that petrol heads are a dying breed there are a LOT of us around, and in my scope of friends it's all being passed onto the next generation too in the same way that equestrianism seems to.
I'm glass is half full, change is happening but we're not doomed
Dan you are correct, but it is not just the move to EV that will speed the demise of the car but more working practices in the world as a whole. Working remotely has become a big thing in the last 5 years and I see in 10 years time this being more the norm for service sector jobs. So no more large offices no more car parks etc and thus less need for a car. Plus fully autonomous vehicles will take you to the office when you have to go in and then park themselves up all without you lifting a finger.
This will also see the demise of the railways and tube system as transport of choice into the city in fact will cities still exist as they do now if we do not have to travel into a given location to work. Factories will become more automated an thus we will take on other jobs.
So yes cars to day are not the future where as cars in the 1990's had a long life left today new cars in their current format do not.
Like horses, boats, gliders an small planes there will be a market for fun cars but a big car you drive yourself will be replaced with a car that does it all for you like your own transport system.
This will also see the demise of the railways and tube system as transport of choice into the city in fact will cities still exist as they do now if we do not have to travel into a given location to work. Factories will become more automated an thus we will take on other jobs.
So yes cars to day are not the future where as cars in the 1990's had a long life left today new cars in their current format do not.
Like horses, boats, gliders an small planes there will be a market for fun cars but a big car you drive yourself will be replaced with a car that does it all for you like your own transport system.
I think it is going to be far, far more stretched out than the doom mongers are saying.
Perhaps one day ICE cars will be confined to closed courses, but is that a bad thing? Modern cars are too fast the roads anyway, and we're guilty of driving them too fast. More people on track days will drive down costs and improve facilities. Perhaps they'll even close off certain roads for us which our impractical for autonomous infrastructure?
As long as there is still demand, there will be something to look forward to. We're still enjoying cars today, and they are far, far different from the cars people loved 80 years ago.
Perhaps one day ICE cars will be confined to closed courses, but is that a bad thing? Modern cars are too fast the roads anyway, and we're guilty of driving them too fast. More people on track days will drive down costs and improve facilities. Perhaps they'll even close off certain roads for us which our impractical for autonomous infrastructure?
As long as there is still demand, there will be something to look forward to. We're still enjoying cars today, and they are far, far different from the cars people loved 80 years ago.
hondansx said:
I think it is going to be far, far more stretched out than the doom mongers are saying.
Perhaps one day ICE cars will be confined to closed courses, but is that a bad thing? Modern cars are too fast the roads anyway, and we're guilty of driving them too fast. More people on track days will drive down costs and improve facilities. Perhaps they'll even close off certain roads for us which our impractical for autonomous infrastructure?
As long as there is still demand, there will be something to look forward to. We're still enjoying cars today, and they are far, far different from the cars people loved 80 years ago.
I'd agree with this:-Perhaps one day ICE cars will be confined to closed courses, but is that a bad thing? Modern cars are too fast the roads anyway, and we're guilty of driving them too fast. More people on track days will drive down costs and improve facilities. Perhaps they'll even close off certain roads for us which our impractical for autonomous infrastructure?
As long as there is still demand, there will be something to look forward to. We're still enjoying cars today, and they are far, far different from the cars people loved 80 years ago.
- It's going to take a number of years to perfect self-driving to the point where it's a realistic choice. So well over a decade before it becomes widespread, and that's assuming the cost side of the equation can be sorted out.
- It'll then take a lot more time before ANY government will risk upsetting driver-voters (whether driving through choice or through poverty) by restricting them from certain roads.
- But it WILL be a generational thing - teenagers / 20-somethings are the typical 'early-adopters' of any new tech, so new generations will flock to self-drivers sooner and in greater numbers.
Will it happen in my lifetime (the next 30-40 years, let's say...) - yes, it probably will.
Will driver-controlled cars be banned altogether from the roads in that time - highly unlikely, but they probably will be a niche minority by then - a 'hybrid' if you will of horse-riders and vintage-car enthusiasts today. Albeit probably greater in number.
And let's not forget the wealth aspect - there's an above-average correlation between wealth and enjoyment of performance cars, and a strong correlation between wealth and political influence...
hondansx said:
I think it is going to be far, far more stretched out than the doom mongers are saying.
Perhaps one day ICE cars will be confined to closed courses, but is that a bad thing? Modern cars are too fast the roads anyway, and we're guilty of driving them too fast. More people on track days will drive down costs and improve facilities. Perhaps they'll even close off certain roads for us which our impractical for autonomous infrastructure?
As long as there is still demand, there will be something to look forward to. We're still enjoying cars today, and they are far, far different from the cars people loved 80 years ago.
I'd agree with that with the slight variation that I don't see 'door to door' autonomy happening for a long time. I think autonomous only routes and zones (main roads and city centres for example) will happen but you'll still need to drive at least part of your journey for the foreseeable futurePerhaps one day ICE cars will be confined to closed courses, but is that a bad thing? Modern cars are too fast the roads anyway, and we're guilty of driving them too fast. More people on track days will drive down costs and improve facilities. Perhaps they'll even close off certain roads for us which our impractical for autonomous infrastructure?
As long as there is still demand, there will be something to look forward to. We're still enjoying cars today, and they are far, far different from the cars people loved 80 years ago.
ZOLLAR said:
Turbobanana said:
The other day I was travelling along a single carriageway A road of a decent width when an ambulance appeared in my rear view mirror. I moved into the kerbside slightly, as I was taught to do, in order to allow it to pass. I nearly rear-ended the car in front who immediately stopped when he saw the ambulance, as if in a trance. The car coming the other way did exactly the same thing - stopped on the spot. Trouble was, they were opposite each other so the ambulance was unable to pass even if it tried. Two drivers with very little road awareness - both isolated from their surroundings and in new cars stuffed full of driver aids to make driving "easier".
This exact thing happened to me this morning!Long straight carriage way and the driver in front stopped dead, the ambulance was a good 500 yards away!
if they had pulled to the left slightly as did the oncoming car to the right then the ambulance would have breezed past whilst we continued on our journey.
king genius. There are far too many people on the roads these days who I am sure struggle to tie their own shoe laces in the morning.Cars are, at their most basic level, a tool for getting from A to B.
If they evolve into a variant that furthers their purpose as a labour-saving device, then that's Progress.
From a personal perspective, I love quality engineering and design, whether it's in a DB4 Gt Zagato, Harrier Jump jet, or a new-fangled, self-driving EV for the masses.
I do like to drive. But I might also like to be driven.
If they evolve into a variant that furthers their purpose as a labour-saving device, then that's Progress.
From a personal perspective, I love quality engineering and design, whether it's in a DB4 Gt Zagato, Harrier Jump jet, or a new-fangled, self-driving EV for the masses.
I do like to drive. But I might also like to be driven.
The Wookie said:
I can see the niche anachronistic side of the industry flourishing, and despite people bemoaning that petrol heads are a dying breed there are a LOT of us around, and in my scope of friends it's all being passed onto the next generation too in the same way that equestrianism seems to.
This. I think it will eventually end up like vinyl records are now - superseded by CDs/MP3s/streaming,but still embraced by a minority in a similar 'niche, anachronistic' way.
Turbobanana said:
As you say, there's no rational explanation for a steam train (or "kettle", as we know them), but still they make people happy. They're difficult to drive, slow, noisy, smelly and usually leak various fluids. They require specialist planning to run on our network and cause traffic congestion wherever they go (on rail and road, usually). But they're great, aren't they?
Steam trains = interesting, electric trains = boringBoring things are fine if they make your life easier and allow you more time/energy/money to do interesting things. Interesting things are also usually interesting because they are hard, whether it's the activity itself or the creation of the tools to participate
Perhaps it's just human nature to like a challenge, even if there's an easier way of doing it!
PBCD said:
This. I think it will eventually end up like vinyl records are now - superseded by CDs/MP3s/streaming,
but still embraced by a minority in a similar 'niche, anachronistic' way.
Well not entirely..but still embraced by a minority in a similar 'niche, anachronistic' way.
You recall a recent Ad where the OLD guy had Digital music and the cool young guy had Vinyl?
James May nailed this subject years ago:
ICE will become the preserve of the enthusiast and the rich
Do you imagine the Classic car mob will just give their hobby up?
I think we have a while yet.....
Turbobanana said:
The other day I was travelling along a single carriageway A road of a decent width when an ambulance appeared in my rear view mirror. I moved into the kerbside slightly, as I was taught to do, in order to allow it to pass. I nearly rear-ended the car in front who immediately stopped when he saw the ambulance, as if in a trance. The car coming the other way did exactly the same thing - stopped on the spot. Trouble was, they were opposite each other so the ambulance was unable to pass even if it tried. Two drivers with very little road awareness - both isolated from their surroundings and in new cars stuffed full of driver aids to make driving "easier".
Surely this just makes the case for autonomous vehicles. An algorithm would have made sure the vehicles moved out of the way, if (and I assume they will be) the vehicles are communicating with each other, they would have moved as a wave to let the emergency vehicle through. Bring it on I say. I will take my TVR to the track, which is where it belongs.I love daft petrol cars that one can drive about oneself. But, on balance, I have to concede a world without them, or a world with very, very few of them, would be a better world. It's a bit sad I suppose.
Imagine cities without internal combustion. No pollution. No danger from traffic at all. It's just a huge advance. We really, really need it.
Imagine cities without internal combustion. No pollution. No danger from traffic at all. It's just a huge advance. We really, really need it.
ZOLLAR said:
Turbobanana said:
The other day I was travelling along a single carriageway A road of a decent width when an ambulance appeared in my rear view mirror. I moved into the kerbside slightly, as I was taught to do, in order to allow it to pass. I nearly rear-ended the car in front who immediately stopped when he saw the ambulance, as if in a trance. The car coming the other way did exactly the same thing - stopped on the spot. Trouble was, they were opposite each other so the ambulance was unable to pass even if it tried. Two drivers with very little road awareness - both isolated from their surroundings and in new cars stuffed full of driver aids to make driving "easier".
This exact thing happened to me this morning!Long straight carriage way and the driver in front stopped dead, the ambulance was a good 500 yards away!
if they had pulled to the left slightly as did the oncoming car to the right then the ambulance would have breezed past whilst we continued on our journey.
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