RE: Endangered species: PH Blog
Discussion
non_linear said:
"Surely this just makes the case for autonomous vehicles. An algorithm would have made sure the vehicles moved out of the way, if (and I assume they will be) the vehicles are communicating with each other, they would have moved as a wave to let the emergency vehicle through. Bring it on I say. I will take my TVR to the track, which is where it belongs."
Yes, I agree. Doesn't mean I like it though. I enjoy driving and think I do an OK job of it, but I accept the technology is coming and suspect that by the time my children are driving there will be a reasonable percentage of autonomous cars on the road. Interacting with old-fashioned drivers like me. THAT I fear.
j4r4lly said:
"I was told that this is also caused because we have a lot of drivers on the road in the UK now who learned to drive abroad. In many other countries it is the law to stop asap in the event of an emergency vehicle no matter what danger or inconvenience it causes to other road users."
Couldn't possibly comment, but it seems plausible. Who would be to blame in the event of an accident? Surely when engaging with the laws and customs of another country you respect them though? "When in Rome", etc.
"Surely this just makes the case for autonomous vehicles. An algorithm would have made sure the vehicles moved out of the way, if (and I assume they will be) the vehicles are communicating with each other, they would have moved as a wave to let the emergency vehicle through. Bring it on I say. I will take my TVR to the track, which is where it belongs."
Yes, I agree. Doesn't mean I like it though. I enjoy driving and think I do an OK job of it, but I accept the technology is coming and suspect that by the time my children are driving there will be a reasonable percentage of autonomous cars on the road. Interacting with old-fashioned drivers like me. THAT I fear.
j4r4lly said:
"I was told that this is also caused because we have a lot of drivers on the road in the UK now who learned to drive abroad. In many other countries it is the law to stop asap in the event of an emergency vehicle no matter what danger or inconvenience it causes to other road users."
Couldn't possibly comment, but it seems plausible. Who would be to blame in the event of an accident? Surely when engaging with the laws and customs of another country you respect them though? "When in Rome", etc.
According to the futurologists, none of us will own our cars in the future and we'll simply summon a pod to take us where we want to go. This does assume a level of rationality on behalf of humans, which as we should all know by now is occasionally missing.
Every single person who buys (leases) anything other an a Dacia Sandero is being irrational. A Dacia will get them to work, and back, its economical, capable of exceeding the UK speed limit, and will drive across Europe easily. Who needs to spend 25K on a cheap Audi when a Dacia will do everything? But they do - and many of them spend far more than 25K on a car. They do it because complex human emotions such as envy, a desire for status, the need to be better than the other guy are bound up in our transport buying decisions.
Even if they can't drive for toffee, everyone driving something other than a Dacia should give you hope that the future will not be quite as bleak and uniform as one might expect. Manufacturers have zero interest in this outcome as well - the last thing they want is consumers emotionally separated from their products. If the utilisation of cars went to 100% from the current ~5%, that implies a collapse in sales.
I also don't believe that proper automation is anywhere close. Not the sort of toys that we have today, where we're still in charge, but proper "pissed on the back seat" automation. From a purely selfish point of view, i'm hoping its there by the time I really need it (hopefully 30 years away at least) but I'm not holding my breath,
Every single person who buys (leases) anything other an a Dacia Sandero is being irrational. A Dacia will get them to work, and back, its economical, capable of exceeding the UK speed limit, and will drive across Europe easily. Who needs to spend 25K on a cheap Audi when a Dacia will do everything? But they do - and many of them spend far more than 25K on a car. They do it because complex human emotions such as envy, a desire for status, the need to be better than the other guy are bound up in our transport buying decisions.
Even if they can't drive for toffee, everyone driving something other than a Dacia should give you hope that the future will not be quite as bleak and uniform as one might expect. Manufacturers have zero interest in this outcome as well - the last thing they want is consumers emotionally separated from their products. If the utilisation of cars went to 100% from the current ~5%, that implies a collapse in sales.
I also don't believe that proper automation is anywhere close. Not the sort of toys that we have today, where we're still in charge, but proper "pissed on the back seat" automation. From a purely selfish point of view, i'm hoping its there by the time I really need it (hopefully 30 years away at least) but I'm not holding my breath,
rxe said:
According to the futurologists, none of us will own our cars in the future and we'll simply summon a pod to take us where we want to go. This does assume a level of rationality on behalf of humans, which as we should all know by now is occasionally missing.
Every single person who buys (leases) anything other an a Dacia Sandero is being irrational. A Dacia will get them to work, and back, its economical, capable of exceeding the UK speed limit, and will drive across Europe easily. Who needs to spend 25K on a cheap Audi when a Dacia will do everything? But they do - and many of them spend far more than 25K on a car. They do it because complex human emotions such as envy, a desire for status, the need to be better than the other guy are bound up in our transport buying decisions.
Even if they can't drive for toffee, everyone driving something other than a Dacia should give you hope that the future will not be quite as bleak and uniform as one might expect. Manufacturers have zero interest in this outcome as well - the last thing they want is consumers emotionally separated from their products. If the utilisation of cars went to 100% from the current ~5%, that implies a collapse in sales.
I also don't believe that proper automation is anywhere close. Not the sort of toys that we have today, where we're still in charge, but proper "pissed on the back seat" automation. From a purely selfish point of view, i'm hoping its there by the time I really need it (hopefully 30 years away at least) but I'm not holding my breath,
Generation Share, under 21 years of age, is already giving up on cars (and drugs and alcohol). The consumers of tomorrow are already here.Every single person who buys (leases) anything other an a Dacia Sandero is being irrational. A Dacia will get them to work, and back, its economical, capable of exceeding the UK speed limit, and will drive across Europe easily. Who needs to spend 25K on a cheap Audi when a Dacia will do everything? But they do - and many of them spend far more than 25K on a car. They do it because complex human emotions such as envy, a desire for status, the need to be better than the other guy are bound up in our transport buying decisions.
Even if they can't drive for toffee, everyone driving something other than a Dacia should give you hope that the future will not be quite as bleak and uniform as one might expect. Manufacturers have zero interest in this outcome as well - the last thing they want is consumers emotionally separated from their products. If the utilisation of cars went to 100% from the current ~5%, that implies a collapse in sales.
I also don't believe that proper automation is anywhere close. Not the sort of toys that we have today, where we're still in charge, but proper "pissed on the back seat" automation. From a purely selfish point of view, i'm hoping its there by the time I really need it (hopefully 30 years away at least) but I'm not holding my breath,
The car industry is quietly planning on a -50% decline in UK revenue during the next 20 to 30 years, due to electric cars (fewer components to go wrong), autonomy (less human input to go wrong) and sharing schemes (more renting, less buying).
If you are in the car industry today, you probably have ~10 years of good times left, before the bad times arrive. People need to start planning their exits now.
I can see that Autonomous and EV's will come in time, but Autonomous particularly, is a long way off yet. There are so many issues to consider such as the fact that self driving cars are currently illegal on the public road, the latest survey said that over 70% of people said they wouldn't use them as they don't (yet) trust the technology and to be honest, we already have them - they are called taxi's/buses/trains etc. To really work effectively, all the cars need to be autonomous and communicate with each other, which poses big security issues as they could be hacked and their systems overridden. Humans make multiple random and unpredictable decisions when driving and they won't mix well with autonomous vehicles.
Ultimately the World is a big place and people want and need to get about. We don't all live in cities and therefore there will continue for some time to come to be a demand for IC/Hybrid vehicles driven by you and me.
I love cars, the design, engineering, development. The way they are marketed and of course actually driving them. Ultimately though when it's all stripped back it's about personal freedom and independence. I know that as long as I have something parked in the garage be it an Aston or a Fiesta, I can go where I want, when I want in comfort. That may eventually change but for now let's make the most of it.
Ultimately the World is a big place and people want and need to get about. We don't all live in cities and therefore there will continue for some time to come to be a demand for IC/Hybrid vehicles driven by you and me.
I love cars, the design, engineering, development. The way they are marketed and of course actually driving them. Ultimately though when it's all stripped back it's about personal freedom and independence. I know that as long as I have something parked in the garage be it an Aston or a Fiesta, I can go where I want, when I want in comfort. That may eventually change but for now let's make the most of it.
Hmm it's a shame but with all this automation, we are perhaps in danger of engineering the 'life' out of life itself?
This advert says it all about what is important to the majority of car buyers these days:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&...
So nothing about the way it drives, the amazing engine sound, the ergonomic driving position, the practicality or the 0-60? Nope it's all about the smartphone integration!
It's an M140i for Christ's sake, a car, not an extension of your PC or a mobile entertainment centre!!!!
This advert says it all about what is important to the majority of car buyers these days:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&...
So nothing about the way it drives, the amazing engine sound, the ergonomic driving position, the practicality or the 0-60? Nope it's all about the smartphone integration!
It's an M140i for Christ's sake, a car, not an extension of your PC or a mobile entertainment centre!!!!
Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 20th September 18:34
rxe said:
I keep seeing that sort of theme. All of the 18 year olds that I know drink more, shag more and drive more than I ever did. I suspect a lot of this is extrapolated from some urban data sets, where car ownership is just too hard and a bit pointless.
among 18-24yo, in the past 20 years, drug usage has declined -50%, car driving has tumbled -25%, and alcohol usage is down -20%.Yipper said:
rxe said:
I keep seeing that sort of theme. All of the 18 year olds that I know drink more, shag more and drive more than I ever did. I suspect a lot of this is extrapolated from some urban data sets, where car ownership is just too hard and a bit pointless.
among 18-24yo, in the past 20 years, drug usage has declined -50%, car driving has tumbled -25%, and alcohol usage is down -20%.I don't think we're doomed to all be forced to drive autonomous electric cars so soon...
Let's not forget the oil industry is a large & powerful lobby, first and foremost and there's no way they'll roll over and let electric cars take away their main market. Lithium and the lack of it is also the main reason Tesla is slow to produce new cars. It's not a metal that is easily found or mined.
Another problem remains range and time / equipment needed for recharging. Where presently there's limited availability of charging points, if / when there's a 10 fold increase in electric cars, this will put current charging points at a breaking point, since where a source is split, charging times are increased if not waiting times.
The electric car is also not as ecologically sound as it would seem, since much of today's power is generated from coal, oil, nuclear. The proportion of renewable energy used in most 1st world countries is still low. Let's not forget what we learnt in physics lessons: Each time there's a conversion of energy from one form to another, there are losses through heat and sound.
In Japan, where the Hybrid car has developed faster than in any other first world market, Hybrid cars depreciate fairly fast since battery life is compromised with age & mileage - and in this country, average mileage is a lot lower than say Europe or the U.S.
Not least, there's the aspect of consumerism. We;re headed for a global downturn in spending ability for the middle class in general and there are no signs its getting any better. Most sales in the UK market for example, have been on personal lease agreements these last few years, because most people don't have the cash to buy outright. This method of "ownership" has been made possible by low interest rates. Once interest rates go up, lease agreements will rise in monthly cost too, likely to make this method of purchase a lot less attractive to consumers.
No prizes for guessing will have a knock-on effect on car sales, which will mean a downturn on income for car manufacturers and therefore their investment capabilities in new technologies, yet alone sales of new cars & technology. Electric cars are not so likely to maintain value when leased and used for higher mileages, so they'll be less attractive to consumers. Most likely petrol engined cars will remain the first choice for lease companies and consumers therefore.
As for autonomous cars, although the hardware already exists, there are all sorts of legal and technological issues to resolve yet.
I think electric cars will remain an option (which energy companies are keen to lobby their governments for, since it's money in their pockets), perhaps increasingly so, but they're unlikely to replace the conventional petrol engine for quite some time yet.
Let's not forget the oil industry is a large & powerful lobby, first and foremost and there's no way they'll roll over and let electric cars take away their main market. Lithium and the lack of it is also the main reason Tesla is slow to produce new cars. It's not a metal that is easily found or mined.
Another problem remains range and time / equipment needed for recharging. Where presently there's limited availability of charging points, if / when there's a 10 fold increase in electric cars, this will put current charging points at a breaking point, since where a source is split, charging times are increased if not waiting times.
The electric car is also not as ecologically sound as it would seem, since much of today's power is generated from coal, oil, nuclear. The proportion of renewable energy used in most 1st world countries is still low. Let's not forget what we learnt in physics lessons: Each time there's a conversion of energy from one form to another, there are losses through heat and sound.
In Japan, where the Hybrid car has developed faster than in any other first world market, Hybrid cars depreciate fairly fast since battery life is compromised with age & mileage - and in this country, average mileage is a lot lower than say Europe or the U.S.
Not least, there's the aspect of consumerism. We;re headed for a global downturn in spending ability for the middle class in general and there are no signs its getting any better. Most sales in the UK market for example, have been on personal lease agreements these last few years, because most people don't have the cash to buy outright. This method of "ownership" has been made possible by low interest rates. Once interest rates go up, lease agreements will rise in monthly cost too, likely to make this method of purchase a lot less attractive to consumers.
No prizes for guessing will have a knock-on effect on car sales, which will mean a downturn on income for car manufacturers and therefore their investment capabilities in new technologies, yet alone sales of new cars & technology. Electric cars are not so likely to maintain value when leased and used for higher mileages, so they'll be less attractive to consumers. Most likely petrol engined cars will remain the first choice for lease companies and consumers therefore.
As for autonomous cars, although the hardware already exists, there are all sorts of legal and technological issues to resolve yet.
I think electric cars will remain an option (which energy companies are keen to lobby their governments for, since it's money in their pockets), perhaps increasingly so, but they're unlikely to replace the conventional petrol engine for quite some time yet.
I still thibk alot of this debate misses the point...we will simply not commute to work in the numbers we do today. So less cars on the road every day. Then add in autonomy which ten years from now will have moved on massively eg in 2007 how many cars could self park now a fiesta can. I believe costs permitting we will still own cars as would you rather a mini cab over being driven in your own car. But the future is there to see by the likes of tesla others will follow suit.
The ferrari 488 will still exist in some form but as now it will be niche as perhaps in a civic type r over a standard civic or a focus rs over its diesel stablemate. But its not a bad thing you have your travel pod for every day and a tvr to use at the track etc.
The ferrari 488 will still exist in some form but as now it will be niche as perhaps in a civic type r over a standard civic or a focus rs over its diesel stablemate. But its not a bad thing you have your travel pod for every day and a tvr to use at the track etc.
This is a much bigger step than the end of the car as we know it though.
It is the beginning of the end of the ability (even if in the past only enjoyed by the rich) to travel under one's own control. At various times since man stood on two legs the main means of land transport have been foot, horse, carriage, bicycle, or car, all controlled by the user (or his servant in the case of carriages).Public transport has only existed in parallel and apart from a brief period (in historical terms) of the supremacy of the train has never been the dominant form.
So-state control of all movement above cycling speed. Assuming we are still going to be allowed to ride bikes of course. Probably be banned as too dangerous.
Personally I think it a ghastly prospect, even if in the first stages it may look convenient.
I hope I am wrong!
It is the beginning of the end of the ability (even if in the past only enjoyed by the rich) to travel under one's own control. At various times since man stood on two legs the main means of land transport have been foot, horse, carriage, bicycle, or car, all controlled by the user (or his servant in the case of carriages).Public transport has only existed in parallel and apart from a brief period (in historical terms) of the supremacy of the train has never been the dominant form.
So-state control of all movement above cycling speed. Assuming we are still going to be allowed to ride bikes of course. Probably be banned as too dangerous.
Personally I think it a ghastly prospect, even if in the first stages it may look convenient.
I hope I am wrong!
Andy20vt said:
It's an M140i for Christ's sake, a car, not an extension of your PC or a mobile entertainment centre!!!!
And here I am thinking an M140i is primarily an extension of your PC/mobile - oh yes its a car too (an M135i with a bit more boost). Edited by Andy20vt on Wednesday 20th September 18:34
Welcome to the PlayStation generation.
But you could always turn the boost up a bit more, dump 2 doors and call it an M2 - IMHO a total p*ss-take! What components on that are specific to the model (other than the price)?
I love driving something special and interesting, but I also look forward to the day of autonomous driving that saves all that dead time associated with the mundane day-to-day driving. I will have more time to do something useful and then come the weekend, when I strap myself into one of the those old fashioned petrol cars I can really enjoy it.
And, if it comes to pass that in the future the only way to enjoy ICE cars is on private tracks, I can see there being a lot of interest in such tracks that model themselves on the great driving roads of old.
And, if it comes to pass that in the future the only way to enjoy ICE cars is on private tracks, I can see there being a lot of interest in such tracks that model themselves on the great driving roads of old.
NJJ said:
I love driving something special and interesting, but I also look forward to the day of autonomous driving that saves all that dead time associated with the mundane day-to-day driving. I will have more time to do something useful and then come the weekend, when I strap myself into one of the those old fashioned petrol cars I can really enjoy it.
And, if it comes to pass that in the future the only way to enjoy ICE cars is on private tracks, I can see there being a lot of interest in such tracks that model themselves on the great driving roads of old.
This is my sentiment exactly, roads these days, take the fun out of driving. Just imagine a world where there are more tracks, even more of a culture. ICE days may be numbered but we're not numbered as petrolheads.And, if it comes to pass that in the future the only way to enjoy ICE cars is on private tracks, I can see there being a lot of interest in such tracks that model themselves on the great driving roads of old.
Lowtimer said:
cars as playthings, and in driving as an exercise of kinetic skill, will be in the same category as horse riding today.
What, a multi-billion dollar international pastime filled with all kinds of regular, accessible competitive events, legions of diehard fans and still plenty of freedom just to take them out on the road as and when we feel like it? I'll drink to that!But yeah, it's all very well talking about lots of tracks etc etc, but that forces driving into the hands of the rich.
At the moment, since I need a car to get around anyway, it doesn't cost that much, comparatively, to run one I can have a bit of fun in. A fun car is still a functional thing for me, in other words. If in the future I all transport is autonomous, though, a fun car won't be a functional thing any more. I'll only be able to run one if I can afford it on top of the autonomous white goods. That would cut an enormous number of people out of having fun cars. To me, that seems extremely sad.
At the moment, since I need a car to get around anyway, it doesn't cost that much, comparatively, to run one I can have a bit of fun in. A fun car is still a functional thing for me, in other words. If in the future I all transport is autonomous, though, a fun car won't be a functional thing any more. I'll only be able to run one if I can afford it on top of the autonomous white goods. That would cut an enormous number of people out of having fun cars. To me, that seems extremely sad.
MrGeoff said:
Just imagine a world where there are more tracks, even more of a culture.
Won't happen.Land will always be at an increasing premium, which will put existing tracks under pressure to sell-up (as a lot of airfields already have), and those that remain will find they've more residential land closer to them so will have more noise restrictions slapped on them.
I strongly suspect we have already passed 'peak petrolhead' (it probably hit some point in the 1990s, to be honest...), and we're now watching the slow decline...
Yipper said:
rxe said:
According to the futurologists, none of us will own our cars in the future and we'll simply summon a pod to take us where we want to go. This does assume a level of rationality on behalf of humans, which as we should all know by now is occasionally missing.
Every single person who buys (leases) anything other an a Dacia Sandero is being irrational. A Dacia will get them to work, and back, its economical, capable of exceeding the UK speed limit, and will drive across Europe easily. Who needs to spend 25K on a cheap Audi when a Dacia will do everything? But they do - and many of them spend far more than 25K on a car. They do it because complex human emotions such as envy, a desire for status, the need to be better than the other guy are bound up in our transport buying decisions.
Even if they can't drive for toffee, everyone driving something other than a Dacia should give you hope that the future will not be quite as bleak and uniform as one might expect. Manufacturers have zero interest in this outcome as well - the last thing they want is consumers emotionally separated from their products. If the utilisation of cars went to 100% from the current ~5%, that implies a collapse in sales.
I also don't believe that proper automation is anywhere close. Not the sort of toys that we have today, where we're still in charge, but proper "pissed on the back seat" automation. From a purely selfish point of view, i'm hoping its there by the time I really need it (hopefully 30 years away at least) but I'm not holding my breath,
Generation Share, under 21 years of age, is already giving up on cars (and drugs and alcohol). The consumers of tomorrow are already here.Every single person who buys (leases) anything other an a Dacia Sandero is being irrational. A Dacia will get them to work, and back, its economical, capable of exceeding the UK speed limit, and will drive across Europe easily. Who needs to spend 25K on a cheap Audi when a Dacia will do everything? But they do - and many of them spend far more than 25K on a car. They do it because complex human emotions such as envy, a desire for status, the need to be better than the other guy are bound up in our transport buying decisions.
Even if they can't drive for toffee, everyone driving something other than a Dacia should give you hope that the future will not be quite as bleak and uniform as one might expect. Manufacturers have zero interest in this outcome as well - the last thing they want is consumers emotionally separated from their products. If the utilisation of cars went to 100% from the current ~5%, that implies a collapse in sales.
I also don't believe that proper automation is anywhere close. Not the sort of toys that we have today, where we're still in charge, but proper "pissed on the back seat" automation. From a purely selfish point of view, i'm hoping its there by the time I really need it (hopefully 30 years away at least) but I'm not holding my breath,
The car industry is quietly planning on a -50% decline in UK revenue during the next 20 to 30 years, due to electric cars (fewer components to go wrong), autonomy (less human input to go wrong) and sharing schemes (more renting, less buying).
If you are in the car industry today, you probably have ~10 years of good times left, before the bad times arrive. People need to start planning their exits now.
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