RE: Tesla Roadster: 'Quickest car in the world'
Discussion
suffolk009 said:
I agree with most of the future-vision aid out here. I'm dubious that Tesla will steal the sort of market share they hope to, but that#s a minor point.
The only thing I really disagree with is this obsession that everyone has that people will be zipping around in autonomous car-share priced per mile. The autonomous yes, and the per mile yes. But the whole reason people love their cars, in preference to public transport is that it is "theirs". The moment you lease it, you're on public transport/in a taxi. Sure they might come in handy for city dwellers who need to make a non-public transport connected journey occasionally. I see no reason for them to become popular with regular drivers.
People like to own stuff. And, wrightly or wrongy, they want to own nicer stuff than the next person.
How old are you?The only thing I really disagree with is this obsession that everyone has that people will be zipping around in autonomous car-share priced per mile. The autonomous yes, and the per mile yes. But the whole reason people love their cars, in preference to public transport is that it is "theirs". The moment you lease it, you're on public transport/in a taxi. Sure they might come in handy for city dwellers who need to make a non-public transport connected journey occasionally. I see no reason for them to become popular with regular drivers.
People like to own stuff. And, wrightly or wrongy, they want to own nicer stuff than the next person.
The generation coming through are not so hung on owning, they rent houses, pcp cars bla bla..
suffolk009 said:
I agree with most of the future-vision aid out here. I'm dubious that Tesla will steal the sort of market share they hope to, but that#s a minor point.
The only thing I really disagree with is this obsession that everyone has that people will be zipping around in autonomous car-share priced per mile. The autonomous yes, and the per mile yes. But the whole reason people love their cars, in preference to public transport is that it is "theirs". The moment you lease it, you're on public transport/in a taxi. Sure they might come in handy for city dwellers who need to make a non-public transport connected journey occasionally. I see no reason for them to become popular with regular drivers.
People like to own stuff. And, wrightly or wrongy, they want to own nicer stuff than the next person.
People made precisely the same argument around music about 15 years ago.The only thing I really disagree with is this obsession that everyone has that people will be zipping around in autonomous car-share priced per mile. The autonomous yes, and the per mile yes. But the whole reason people love their cars, in preference to public transport is that it is "theirs". The moment you lease it, you're on public transport/in a taxi. Sure they might come in handy for city dwellers who need to make a non-public transport connected journey occasionally. I see no reason for them to become popular with regular drivers.
People like to own stuff. And, wrightly or wrongy, they want to own nicer stuff than the next person.
Most people live in an urban area.
Most people don't like parking and walking or driving other people to places.
When the cars self drive every child, old person, disabled person, poor person and drunk person can now drive. The solution will be per mile dynamic road pricing, for most people this will be covered in an invisible cost per mile charge coming directly out of their bank account. This will drive more lift sharing at peak times.
Personal car owners will be either able to pay by app per mile or pay flat fees enforced by number plate as today. Their wails of protest will fall on mostly deaf ears from those who simply say why don't you go by shared ownership car like everyone else. Especially as the shared car will be much more comfortable without the need for a steering wheel.
Also there will be considerable pressure to get rid of cars parked on streets and to get rid of land dedicated to parking.
People used to be proud of their record collection, people will find something else to show off with.
I must admit, I am not convinced either by the idea that autonomy will necessarily remove the desire to own. Apart perhaps from some reduction in cost, I don’t see what an autonomous taxi offers over a human driven taxi such that the desire to own (or lease, or long term hire) a personal vehicle will suddenly be negated.
Maybe I am missing the city dweller’s view of it, though to be honest I already think you need to be nuts to own a car for use in London.
Maybe I am missing the city dweller’s view of it, though to be honest I already think you need to be nuts to own a car for use in London.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I submitted that post before I was finished and edited it with some calcs on battery price.If you take current demand and divide it by a pool of cars then 200 miles per day would mean that you would need only in the region of 1/8th the current number of cars. In practice I think that to accommodate peak demand you would want more vehicles or more precisely more seats so a 200 mile range vehicle would be good enough for the fleet and allow it to be charged overnight.
There will be some charging during the day if the electricity price goes low due to high winds or lots of sun or I high demand in a specific location is required and it is cheaper to charge something locally rather than move other vehicles in.
I actually think the default vehicle might be a 2 wheeled self balancing cabin cycle, they take up much less road space so would essentially allow you to "ride share" without needing to stop and let people on and off.
The answer as to how with shared autonomous cars will work is that it will be complex, that's the point of them!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I agree that it's a joy to use a manual gearbox but sadly we're a dying breed! See every 911 is now PDK, all AMG's, BMW with any performance are all auto... And anything with an option is selected as auto Autos now have so many gears, are so seamless that other than the noise, they may as well be an EV.
My gripe is that pretty much all modern cars are dull... I have a i3 and will always run an EV as a second car, because they're a lot more interesting than any other run about, and a lot easier to live with.
otolith said:
I must admit, I am not convinced either by the idea that autonomy will necessarily remove the desire to own. Apart perhaps from some reduction in cost, I don’t see what an autonomous taxi offers over a human driven taxi such that the desire to own (or lease, or long term hire) a personal vehicle will suddenly be negated.
Maybe I am missing the city dweller’s view of it, though to be honest I already think you need to be nuts to own a car for use in London.
RAC states average cost per mile for driving in the UK is 55p per mile all in, this is a mean, median will be lower.Maybe I am missing the city dweller’s view of it, though to be honest I already think you need to be nuts to own a car for use in London.
Average car goes 8700 miles so a cost of £4800 per year.
Taxi costs vary between about £2-5 per mile so £17-43,000 per year.
Shared electric cars are likely to be in the region of 5-20p per mile, for most people that is enough money to make a difference.
Also think about how people will get introduced to motoring, they will start of a children riding shared autonomous cars, the will think it a very odd idea to want to spend lots of money to own one.
jsf said:
Everyone needs to go to work at the same time. Fix that problem with your shared car utopia.
And don't say stagger working hours, it isn't suitable for most people, hence rush hour traffic. If that was viable we would have been doing it 20 years ago.
Agreed. Let's say a 4 seater car is summoned to take me to work. I'm first on the list so get into an empty car, which then drives around picking up 3 other people who are heading somewhere close to me. After 45 minutes of driving around doing pickups, we then actually set off towards our destination. Hopefully I get dropped off first, but if not, I then get driven around 3 other peoples places of work for another 30 minutes before finally arriving at my own.And don't say stagger working hours, it isn't suitable for most people, hence rush hour traffic. If that was viable we would have been doing it 20 years ago.
Alternatively the car could only pick up people who live directly on my route to work, but it still adds significant inconvenience to everyone's journey.
On top of this, all these empty cars driving around doing pickups are adding a lot to traffic levels, making things take even longer.
It may be doable eventually, but probably not for at least the next 40 or 50 years, yet seems to be popping up in every 5th thread on here as if it's coming imminently.
RobDickinson said:
8V085 said:
The IP that they made free for anyone to use? How does that work?
They still own it and they didnt open source/give it away. I think they are happy to share on a free commercial basis, afik no one is taking them up on it anyhow. https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150217/0618293...
Why nobody uses them? How would we know is the first question. And if they don't that would imply that Tesla's tech either isn't that revolutionary. Or they know that this isn't a viable model and wait to see what's going to happen with Tesla in the long run.
8V085 said:
Musk said at the time that they were free to use by whoever wants them, no conditions and/or restrictions were defined.
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150217/0618293...
Why nobody uses them? How would we know is the first question. And if they don't that would imply that Tesla's tech either isn't that revolutionary. Or they know that this isn't a viable model and wait to see what's going to happen with Tesla in the long run.
Ok someone might be somewhere.. but there are issues...https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150217/0618293...
Why nobody uses them? How would we know is the first question. And if they don't that would imply that Tesla's tech either isn't that revolutionary. Or they know that this isn't a viable model and wait to see what's going to happen with Tesla in the long run.
https://electrek.co/2015/11/10/a-number-of-compani...
RobDickinson said:
8V085 said:
Musk said at the time that they were free to use by whoever wants them, no conditions and/or restrictions were defined.
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150217/0618293...
Why nobody uses them? How would we know is the first question. And if they don't that would imply that Tesla's tech either isn't that revolutionary. Or they know that this isn't a viable model and wait to see what's going to happen with Tesla in the long run.
Ok someone might be somewhere.. but there are issues...https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150217/0618293...
Why nobody uses them? How would we know is the first question. And if they don't that would imply that Tesla's tech either isn't that revolutionary. Or they know that this isn't a viable model and wait to see what's going to happen with Tesla in the long run.
https://electrek.co/2015/11/10/a-number-of-compani...
I'm confident there will always be people who want ICE cars, if only to blast around a track - there are already vastly more track days than there used to be. The bonus will be that ICE cars will lose the daily-road-going compromises and become track focused, aimed purely at the enjoyment of driving - after all people still ride horses despite them being superceded.
otolith said:
I must admit, I am not convinced either by the idea that autonomy will necessarily remove the desire to own. Apart perhaps from some reduction in cost, I don’t see what an autonomous taxi offers over a human driven taxi such that the desire to own (or lease, or long term hire) a personal vehicle will suddenly be negated.
Maybe I am missing the city dweller’s view of it, though to be honest I already think you need to be nuts to own a car for use in London.
I think you just answered your own question. Think of the model under discussion as a sort of computer optimized bus/taxi hybrid. When you don't have to deal with packed crowds, or unpleasant cabbies you remove the remainder of many people's aversions to public transportation. Unlike real estate cars don't have very good residuals, or even stand as an investment unless you're already starting well up the scale. So as an ownership prospect there's not a lot going for them except personalization. Most cars on the market are white goods anyway.Maybe I am missing the city dweller’s view of it, though to be honest I already think you need to be nuts to own a car for use in London.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I agree with you on the fun part, however we have EV vans (Nissans) and they are just such a joy to drive over a rattly diesel van in the work place. There is something calming about them. No drama. Driving them all day is just nicer.The same goes for the morning commute. Just calm and nice in an EV.
And that's what most people will want, a nice, quiet eventless commuting car or a calm simple works van etc.
But you are correct about fun, old weird cars with personality are fun... now and again when in the right mood!
Harrison-91xcg said:
How can he say it will be the quickest production car in the world?
Project One and Valkyrie and BP23 are also being released in the same year, all of which I'm sure will beat the Tesla round a track in reverse.
......
To be fair, those two would generate undriveable amounts of lift if driven in reverse.Project One and Valkyrie and BP23 are also being released in the same year, all of which I'm sure will beat the Tesla round a track in reverse.
......
witko999 said:
Agreed. Let's say a 4 seater car is summoned to take me to work. I'm first on the list so get into an empty car, which then drives around picking up 3 other people who are heading somewhere close to me. After 45 minutes of driving around doing pickups, we then actually set off towards our destination. Hopefully I get dropped off first, but if not, I then get driven around 3 other peoples places of work for another 30 minutes before finally arriving at my own.
Alternatively the car could only pick up people who live directly on my route to work, but it still adds significant inconvenience to everyone's journey.
On top of this, all these empty cars driving around doing pickups are adding a lot to traffic levels, making things take even longer.
It may be doable eventually, but probably not for at least the next 40 or 50 years, yet seems to be popping up in every 5th thread on here as if it's coming imminently.
Exactly.Alternatively the car could only pick up people who live directly on my route to work, but it still adds significant inconvenience to everyone's journey.
On top of this, all these empty cars driving around doing pickups are adding a lot to traffic levels, making things take even longer.
It may be doable eventually, but probably not for at least the next 40 or 50 years, yet seems to be popping up in every 5th thread on here as if it's coming imminently.
Listening to some people on here you would think that the self driving, EV shared "pod" car scenario is just around the corner.
Just a heads up. There are according to the SMMT approximately 32m cars in the UK car parc.
That total is being added to at around 2.7 million new cars per annum. 1.8 % of those used to be EV. . The govt plug in car grant has doubled uptake, since January 2017, but we all see what happens in other countries when govt subsidies are withdrawn. So comparing like with like , setting subsidies apart, we see that EV take up is extremely small whilst the UK car parc is huge and growing.
There are roughly 1.2 million cars scrapped per annum,DVLA figures, ( although some disputed sources claim 1.7 are actually scrapped) so theres a nett gain per annum of some 1.5 million cars.
How long would it take for all those ICE vehicles to be replaced by EV, especially considering that the expected life time of cars are in fact increasing. Scrappage rates have fallen in recent years.
Think about Mr and Mrs Joe Public.
They never buy a brand new new car because they cannot afford to. Their "new" car is always secondhand. They only buy a replacement car because their old car is generally buggared. They will never buy a newish EV because they cannot afford to. If you cannot afford a newish ICE car you cannot afford a newish EV car. When EV's get to sub £2,000 they may consider getting one, but guess what, by that time its batteries will be fried and it will be as useful as their old clapped out ICE banger.
In any event, in the future electricity for transport will be charged appropriately and will be expensive. Some days, poor EV people who bought the old knacker out the back of Carcraft EV, but who cannot afford peak rate charging, cannot go to work in their EV's because the smart charger programme has used the scant power in their half knackered battery, to charge some other EV in a better part of town whose owner can afford peak rates .
All Hail the National EV peak demand smoothing programme. Its being written in law right now gentlemen.
So, whats going to happen to those 32 million ICE cars . All of which represent a financial investment, however paltry, from some one or some organisation ? How can EV's displace 32 million cars when even with subsidies they are only selling 200k pa.
Its going to take years, and years and years, and then some more years. I'm not even 60 and I doubt I will ever see the day that ICE died.
Cheers,
Tony
Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff