Are these Vloggers just a scam? SOL or Shmee etc? (Vol 2)

Are these Vloggers just a scam? SOL or Shmee etc? (Vol 2)

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Craig_89

251 posts

175 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
It was obvious about 18 months - 2 years ago that the car market was over inflated and now the correction has started to become more obvious. There's simply too many supercars and hypercars available for them to be considered special, aided by easy finance and more people with more money than ever before.

I'm just holding out hope that this correction will bring the prices of 90's Jap cars back to where they were a few years ago as I would like to start hopping between different cars I've always wanted to own. I suspect this may not happen given many cars now hold a cult status. I also suspect that with many being 25 years old opens the US market which will keep prices up.

The ones who will be hurt the most are those who have potentially stretched themselves to finance their cars but can't afford to lose too much in depreciation. Those people will quickly find themselves in negative equity with no easy way out, either take the hit or simply keep the car for the full term in the hope it'll have evened out in the end.

lemmingjames

7,433 posts

203 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Craig_89 said:
I'm just holding out hope that this correction will bring the prices of 90's Jap cars back to where they were a few years ago as I would like to start hopping between different cars I've always wanted to own. I suspect this may not happen given many cars now hold a cult status. I also suspect that with many being 25 years old opens the US market which will keep prices up.
unless they are in factory condition, the stters of the cult cars will come back down as people will take off the rose tinted lenses

Also, has the thread been pruned or did someone delete their comment?


anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Craig_89 said:
The ones who will be hurt the most are those who have potentially stretched themselves to finance their cars but can't afford to lose too much in depreciation. Those people will quickly find themselves in negative equity with no easy way out, either take the hit or simply keep the car for the full term in the hope it'll have evened out in the end.
I immediately though of SOL Paul Wallace when I read that. The fact that he has admitted he can't actually drive the car much because he is too worried about the resale value, and it needs a £20k respray makes me think he is a bit stuck. Obviously I don't know his financial situation, but from his videos it appears he is less able to afford to take a hit than some of the other youtubers.

He mentions on his videos that the car is actually appreciating in value, but I suspect that has not actually been the case.

Gio G

2,945 posts

208 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Craig_89 said:
It was obvious about 18 months - 2 years ago that the car market was over inflated and now the correction has started to become more obvious. There's simply too many supercars and hypercars available for them to be considered special, aided by easy finance and more people with more money than ever before.

I'm just holding out hope that this correction will bring the prices of 90's Jap cars back to where they were a few years ago as I would like to start hopping between different cars I've always wanted to own. I suspect this may not happen given many cars now hold a cult status. I also suspect that with many being 25 years old opens the US market which will keep prices up.

The ones who will be hurt the most are those who have potentially stretched themselves to finance their cars but can't afford to lose too much in depreciation. Those people will quickly find themselves in negative equity with no easy way out, either take the hit or simply keep the car for the full term in the hope it'll have evened out in the end.
Not to side track the topic, however it seems prices of 90's and 00's nice Jap cars in the US are climbing much higher than the UK.. Being new to this market, any reason for this?

G

thelostboy

4,562 posts

224 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
AJB1971 said:
The 911R was another example. With 991 units produced it wasn’t that rare, but prices rocketed.

I’m sure that encouraged a lot of people to enter the market. They regarded buying the latest supercar as an investment. Finance was easy to come by, you only needed a small deposit, and interest rates were exceptionally low.

I’ve mentioned before about how many Performantes are currently for sale. My perception is that a lot of people bought these after seeing what happened to the price of the Speciale, TDF, R and GT3 RS, etc.
I think you're missing a couple of points here,

The 911R was lauded as a fantastic, purist's Porsche. It was of no surprise that prices initially rocketed, but since then, residuals have been affected by Porsche themselves - they diluted the R with the GT3 Touring which, in reality, is a better car.

Porsche time and time again unleash constantly evolving, better cars. The 911R will always be special, but that lustre has been diminished by the GT3 touring 'stealing' its USPs. On the flipside, a touring is worth more on the second hand market than a conventional winged GT3 despite being just being an option box on a configurator.

As for the Performante, it was launched into a positive market with cheap money. What would-be investors or enthusiastic chances clearly didn't pay attention to is that Lamborghini had no intention of - and certainly didn't promote - it being a limited numbers car. I can imagine they sold barely any regular Huracans whilst the Performante was being built, in fact.

As a Performante owner, I'm sorry to see the residuals take a hit, but at the same time I knew what I was walking into - instead we should applaud Lamborghini for not making it impossible to buy their cars after teasing the world with a Nuburgring record!

For the buyer, the Performante now represents something of a bargain. A fully fledged supercar with howling V10, for not much more than yet another GT3... it was an easy choice for me.

The economy will affect any car purchase from now on. I myself would previously consider finance because paying 7% APR could be beaten by investment performance at 9+%, property development, or wherever you stick your money. But this has all been hit hard recently, and so suddenly the 'cheap money' of finance is far riskier.

Craig_89

251 posts

175 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Gio G said:
Not to side track the topic, however it seems prices of 90's and 00's nice Jap cars in the US are climbing much higher than the UK.. Being new to this market, any reason for this?

G
I don't get the US to be honest, they just seem to be happy to pay much higher prices than us.

As an example I've been into my MK2 MR2's for over 10 years now and they're silly money over there. Current market rate for a nice later spec turbo in the UK is circa £5-7k, over there they're going for $12-20k. The American's also pay UK turbo prices for non turbo MR2's as well. I doubt MR2's as a whole are rarer as the owners clubs seem to be much larger than the UK. The only part I do understand is that they stopped getting the MR2 in '95 so they go crazy for anything in that year.

From what I've seen the above seems to apply to various other JDM cars but again I don't understand why, especially when it applies to cars they were able to buy from new. I understand the odd few cars like Skylines which they didn't get and are now being imported legally. Supra's I really don't understand, the US got these when they were new yet I've seen a number of them sell for $170k+ which makes no sense at all!

Edited by Craig_89 on Tuesday 10th September 12:46

PaulJC84

922 posts

216 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Probably the 25 year rule so they can import them now.

Craig_89

251 posts

175 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I immediately though of SOL Paul Wallace when I read that. The fact that he has admitted he can't actually drive the car much because he is too worried about the resale value, and it needs a £20k respray makes me think he is a bit stuck. Obviously I don't know his financial situation, but from his videos it appears he is less able to afford to take a hit than some of the other youtubers.

He mentions on his videos that the car is actually appreciating in value, but I suspect that has not actually been the case.
I think SOL is stuck with that Merci for the foreseeable future, high monthly payments, doesn't appear to be gaining any value and it needs work. Tony was right, if you want to sell it in 2 years put it up for sale now!

Craigybaby69

486 posts

130 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Anyone know how that supercar investment club did? They were selling F40 shares at£500 a pop. I bottled it.

Craig_89

251 posts

175 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Craigybaby69 said:
Anyone know how that supercar investment club did? They were selling F40 shares at£500 a pop. I bottled it.
I believe they didn't reach their target so it got pulled.

AJB1971

346 posts

74 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
thelostboy said:
I think you're missing a couple of points here,

The 911R was lauded as a fantastic, purist's Porsche. It was of no surprise that prices initially rocketed, but since then, residuals have been affected by Porsche themselves - they diluted the R with the GT3 Touring which, in reality, is a better car.

Porsche time and time again unleash constantly evolving, better cars. The 911R will always be special, but that lustre has been diminished by the GT3 touring 'stealing' its USPs. On the flipside, a touring is worth more on the second hand market than a conventional winged GT3 despite being just being an option box on a configurator.

As for the Performante, it was launched into a positive market with cheap money. What would-be investors or enthusiastic chances clearly didn't pay attention to is that Lamborghini had no intention of - and certainly didn't promote - it being a limited numbers car. I can imagine they sold barely any regular Huracans whilst the Performante was being built, in fact.

As a Performante owner, I'm sorry to see the residuals take a hit, but at the same time I knew what I was walking into - instead we should applaud Lamborghini for not making it impossible to buy their cars after teasing the world with a Nuburgring record!

For the buyer, the Performante now represents something of a bargain. A fully fledged supercar with howling V10, for not much more than yet another GT3... it was an easy choice for me.

The economy will affect any car purchase from now on. I myself would previously consider finance because paying 7% APR could be beaten by investment performance at 9+%, property development, or wherever you stick your money. But this has all been hit hard recently, and so suddenly the 'cheap money' of finance is far riskier.
It’s more about the impression it gives and the effect it has on the market than the individual car.

I can’t see that the 911R was ever worth close to £1m solely because of the number of them that Porsche intended producing, but it certainly got people's attention. Manufacturers are always going to bring out new models and Porsche are known for making iterative updates.

I do think that the premiums encouraged people to speculate on other limited production cars that they thought would meet the same criteria. At worst, they probably thought that they could sell at a small loss, but that doesn’t look as if it’s the case.

We have similar thoughts on the Performante, but it’s only a bargain if prices are no longer falling. Looking at Autotrader, I would say that supply still outweighs demand.

Cheap money tends to boost asset prices or at least underpin them to some degree, but the effect doesn’t last forever. It can create bubbles and eventually they will burst.

It looks like the finance companies could take a hit from these guaranteed future values and that will probably lead to tougher lending conditions - bigger deposits, lower guaranteed future values, higher interest rates and, crucially, higher monthly repayments.

Edited by AJB1971 on Tuesday 10th September 15:41

AJB1971

346 posts

74 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Craigybaby69 said:
Anyone know how that supercar investment club did? They were selling F40 shares at£500 a pop. I bottled it.
Yes, it failed to reach its funding target. They were looking at alternatives, but nothing else has materialised as far as I'm aware.

Greshamst

2,028 posts

119 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
lemmingjames said:
Also, has the thread been pruned or did someone delete their comment?
I remember seeing a post from someone Tis morning saying they felt the thread had become too focussed on Jay and his own channel, so may be to do with that

ferrisbueller

29,260 posts

226 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Craig_89 said:
Gio G said:
Not to side track the topic, however it seems prices of 90's and 00's nice Jap cars in the US are climbing much higher than the UK.. Being new to this market, any reason for this?

G
I don't get the US to be honest, they just seem to be happy to pay much higher prices than us.

As an example I've been into my MK2 MR2's for over 10 years now and they're silly money over there. Current market rate for a nice later spec turbo in the UK is circa £5-7k, over there they're going for $12-20k. The American's also pay UK turbo prices for non turbo MR2's as well. I doubt MR2's as a whole are rarer as the owners clubs seem to be much larger than the UK. The only part I do understand is that they stopped getting the MR2 in '95 so they go crazy for anything in that year.

From what I've seen the above seems to apply to various other JDM cars but again I don't understand why, especially when it applies to cars they were able to buy from new. I understand the odd few cars like Skylines which they didn't get and are now being imported legally. Supra's I really don't understand, the US got these when they were new yet I've seen a number of them sell for $170k+ which makes no sense at all!

Edited by Craig_89 on Tuesday 10th September 12:46
Supply/Demand and disposable income (which they tend to have more of).

jayemm89

4,003 posts

129 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
Greshamst said:
lemmingjames said:
Also, has the thread been pruned or did someone delete their comment?
I remember seeing a post from someone Tis morning saying they felt the thread had become too focussed on Jay and his own channel, so may be to do with that
Can't say I have noticed any of my own posts being deleted... confused

Edited by jayemm89 on Tuesday 10th September 14:16

trowelhead

1,867 posts

120 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
AJB1971 said:
thelostboy said:
I think you're missing a couple of points here,

The 911R was lauded as a fantastic, purist's Porsche. It was of no surprise that prices initially rocketed, but since then, residuals have been affected by Porsche themselves - they diluted the R with the GT3 Touring which, in reality, is a better car.

Porsche time and time again unleash constantly evolving, better cars. The 911R will always be special, but that lustre has been diminished by the GT3 touring 'stealing' its USPs. On the flipside, a touring is worth more on the second hand market than a conventional winged GT3 despite being just being an option box on a configurator.

As for the Performante, it was launched into a positive market with cheap money. What would-be investors or enthusiastic chances clearly didn't pay attention to is that Lamborghini had no intention of - and certainly didn't promote - it being a limited numbers car. I can imagine they sold barely any regular Huracans whilst the Performante was being built, in fact.

As a Performante owner, I'm sorry to see the residuals take a hit, but at the same time I knew what I was walking into - instead we should applaud Lamborghini for not making it impossible to buy their cars after teasing the world with a Nuburgring record!

For the buyer, the Performante now represents something of a bargain. A fully fledged supercar with howling V10, for not much more than yet another GT3... it was an easy choice for me.

The economy will affect any car purchase from now on. I myself would previously consider finance because paying 7% APR could be beaten by investment performance at 9+%, property development, or wherever you stick your money. But this has all been hit hard recently, and so suddenly the 'cheap money' of finance is far riskier.
It’s more about the impression it gives and the effect it has on the market than the individual car.

I can’t see that the 911R was ever worth close to £1m solely because of the number of them that Porsche intended producing, but it certainly got people's attention. Manufacturers are always going to bring out new models and Porsche are known for making iterative updates.

I do think that the premiums encouraged people to speculate on other limited production cars that they thought would meet the same criteria. At worst, they probably thought that they could sell at a small loss, but that doesn’t look as if it’s the case.

We have similar thoughts on the Performante, but it’s only a bargain if prices are no longer falling. Looking at Autotrader, I would say that supply still outweighs demand.

Cheap money tends to boost asset prices or at least underpin them to some degree, but the effect doesn’t last forever. It can create bubbles and eventually they will burst.

It looks like the finance companies could take a hit from these guaranteed future values and that will probably lead to tougher lending conditions - bigger deposits, lower guaranteed future values, higher interest rates and, crucially, higher monthly repayments.

Edited by AJB1971 on Tuesday 10th September 15:41
Many finance deals at the higher end of the market carry balloons that are not guaranteed (for the very reason that the risk is transferred to the borrower)

AJB1971

346 posts

74 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
trowelhead said:
Many finance deals at the higher end of the market carry balloons that are not guaranteed (for the very reason that the risk is transferred to the borrower)
That makes sense. Thanks.

The Li-ion King

3,766 posts

63 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
lemmingjames said:
Craig_89 said:
I'm just holding out hope that this correction will bring the prices of 90's Jap cars back to where they were a few years ago as I would like to start hopping between different cars I've always wanted to own. I suspect this may not happen given many cars now hold a cult status. I also suspect that with many being 25 years old opens the US market which will keep prices up.
unless they are in factory condition, the stters of the cult cars will come back down as people will take off the rose tinted lenses

Also, has the thread been pruned or did someone delete their comment?
I posted about negative equity in the more normal of cars, but that seems to have disappeared... some trimming must be going on scratchchin

SOL has got a Ferrari for a week... quite a decent video of the collection. Nice coverage of the Frankfurt show by Shmee as well wink

waremark

3,241 posts

212 months

Tuesday 10th September 2019
quotequote all
thelostboy said:
I think you're missing a couple of points here,

The 911R was lauded as a fantastic, purist's Porsche. It was of no surprise that prices initially rocketed, but since then, residuals have been affected by Porsche themselves - they diluted the R with the GT3 Touring which, in reality, is a better car.

Porsche time and time again unleash constantly evolving, better cars. The 911R will always be special, but that lustre has been diminished by the GT3 touring 'stealing' its USPs. On the flipside, a touring is worth more on the second hand market than a conventional winged GT3 despite being just being an option box on a configurator.
I am lucky enough to have a friend who has both a 911R and a GT3 Touring (among other special cars) and to have had the opportunity to drive both. Both are fabulous - of course. He considers the R to feel more special, among other things because of the lesser amount of sound deadening enabling you to listen to more special sounds and also because the lighter fly wheel means that good gear changes require more focus. After driving them I agreed. I think the rev limit of the Touring is higher (9k v 8.5k?) but I probably did not go above 8k in either. Indeed, I had to ask why my friend was buying a GT2 RS since I didn't manage to use the 500 bhp of the GT3, let alone the massively greater power of the GT2 (which I haven't driven and couldn't do justice to).

I also had a great weekend in a 'regular' GT3 - with wing, PDK and cage. Personally I would go with the Touring because the manual makes it so much more rewarding - and I am happy to have the luggage space behind the seats instead of the cage and a little less noise than the R. The extra value of the R is all about the lower numbers and the investment potential. If anyone paid vastly more than the current values more fool them.

Happily all three of these cars were bought for the enjoyment of driving them.

1602Mark

16,205 posts

172 months

Wednesday 11th September 2019
quotequote all
AJB1971 said:
Craigybaby69 said:
Anyone know how that supercar investment club did? They were selling F40 shares at£500 a pop. I bottled it.
Yes, it failed to reach its funding target. They were looking at alternatives, but nothing else has materialised as far as I'm aware.
Well I'm really surprised at that outcome.


Said no-one ever.

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