Driverless cars and the ownerless future
Discussion
unsprung said:
DonkeyApple said:
It will probably be as big an economic change as the advent of the smart phone.
Restricted uses for now. But almost fully autonomous in less than 20 years.
unsprung said:
It's an interesting graph, but those are some pretty massive 'IF's' aren't they? Especially the bottom one: 'Consumers are enthusiastic and willing to pay'. It also only considers ADAS L4 which means that your own car (which has a steering wheel) can drive itself. Not the driverless pod idea which is ADAS L5 (no steering wheel at all). I have no doubt that there are autonomous driving modes on the way...especially on motorways. But the whole ownership model is the thing I'm dubious about. It requires a huge shift in the way everyone perceives cars and I'm not really that confident that will happen....
RacerMike said:
unsprung said:
3. What will citizens decide to do about the surplus of car parks and the waning number of vehicles parked overnight on city streets?
Where would all the driverless cars be overnight? In a city like London, they certainly couldn't all be on the outskirts as they wouldn't be able to get into the city quick enough to supply the demand in the morning. Furthermore, it assumes that everyone subscribes to the 'no personal car' model.The answer to your question is that many vehicles in and around London will not be parked overnight; they will be in use overnight. Remember also that fewer parking spaces and fewer servicing spaces will be needed. We are not substituting everybody's personal car with an autonomous car on a one-to-one basis. Because ride sharing.
Also, as DonkeyApple has noted, we will experience a time shift, or at least greater flexibility, in lifestyles and work schedules. Entirely new business models will appear -- and lead to both economic growth and personal opportunity.
One important reminder: We are not talking about an overnight or complete replacement of personally-owned vehicles. The maths, however, will be unrelenting and change will make personal car ownership much smaller and very unlike what we know of, today.
Big plaudits from me, Mate, for addressing each one of my questions and in detail. I regret that we're not having a pint down the pub, while discussing this. Many of the points that you raise are addressed in the McKinsey PDF to which I've linked above. There are of course other and more detailed sources online.
RacerMike said:
Ok, so it’s not just me that thinks it then. Weirdly, so many people I talk to (who work in the automotive industry) seem to think the opposite. They make comments like ‘ah my kids just do everything via an app now, and no kids really like cars anymore’ which to me sounds like them projecting their views/lack of understanding onto something they’ve been told by Google, without any real thought. The concerning thing for me is that many of the major manufacturers are happy to plough money into it based on this fact!
I actually did a talk at my old secondary school a few months back, and I got the opposite impression. A few of the kids actually said their favourite car was a Defender, and almost all of them were as enthusiastic as I was about cars.
i just helped a good friend of my wife in the search for her sons first car. i was shocked he had even bothered to learn to drive. nice kid, very clever, absolute computer geek. does everything by app just like those kids your colleagues talk about.I actually did a talk at my old secondary school a few months back, and I got the opposite impression. A few of the kids actually said their favourite car was a Defender, and almost all of them were as enthusiastic as I was about cars.
Edited by RacerMike on Monday 23 April 19:33
imagine my surprise when i see that look of sheer joy on his face when he sees the car(that will soon wear off ,it's a 1.2 corsa), and the excitement when he first turned the key. think he did 500 plus miles in the next 7 days. like me, your colleagues maybe missed the fact that despite modern technology human beings are still built the same way.
all those v logger subscriptions must be coming from somewhere and i doubt it is from old-ish farts like me.
unsprung said:
Today most cars are parked for 95 percent of their usable lifetimes. They are in use only five percent of the time. Autonomous ride share vehicles, in contrast, are projected to be in use something like 70 percent of the time, IIRC.
The answer to your question is that many vehicles in and around London will not be parked overnight; they will be in use overnight. Remember also that fewer parking spaces and fewer servicing spaces will be needed. We are not substituting everybody's personal car with an autonomous car on a one-to-one basis. Because ride sharing.
But if every person who once drove their own car in London (why you'd bother over using mass transit is beyond me) uses a pod, that's still the same number of vehicles on the road at rush hour (see below). And the reason they're not used 95% of the time is because they're parked either overnight or during work hours. So unless 95% more uses are found in the small hours or middle of the day, there will be the same number of parked cars around.The answer to your question is that many vehicles in and around London will not be parked overnight; they will be in use overnight. Remember also that fewer parking spaces and fewer servicing spaces will be needed. We are not substituting everybody's personal car with an autonomous car on a one-to-one basis. Because ride sharing.
unsprung said:
Also, as DonkeyApple has noted, we will experience a time shift, or at least greater flexibility, in lifestyles and work schedules. Entirely new business models will appear -- and lead to both economic growth and personal opportunity.
Whilst plenty of companies are trying to become more flexible with their working hours, the reality is, unless your business model is entirely internet based with zero human interaction required (i.e. most of Google and Ubers work) 'flexible working' doesn't really work. My company has tried it's best to embrace 'collaborative working spaces', 'touch down areas', working from home and flexible hours, but whilst initially it seemed quite nice, it just doesn't work. Taken to it's extreme, what if Dave who I need to talk to, to resolve an issue decides he isn't working until 3pm because he 'did an all nighter playing COD which really helps his creativity'? He may be able to do his work when he comes in, but I can't do mine. And that's the reality. People aren't going to start varying their working times significantly. It makes sense to work from about 9-5, and because a lot of people like actually interacting with people face to face, they like to actually go and talk to people in an office.At the complete other end of the ideas spectrum, have a read of this https://singularityhub.com/2018/02/14/why-the-rise... which suggests ownership levels might actually increase!
Flumpo said:
I would wager that people currently using cars could save a fortune if they got the bus. Isn’t car ownership at record levels?!
Buses have a bad image. Dirty, noisy, stuck in traffic, sharing with the great unwashed etc. Pretty much the opposite of how driverless will be marketed. It'll be new, clean, green, on demand, safer, cheaper, high-tech, the future of transport etc.Google have transformed the way we shop in less than two decades. Now think about them, Apple, all the manufacturers and governments together, pushing in one direction, spending hundreds of billions and changing legislation all over the place. The public will quickly get in line.
I think the opportunities are endless tbh. It'll create new industries to maintain and clean them. Software developers to update them. Wrappers will be busy branding fleets in corporate colours. Advertisers and games companies will be vying for space on the screens, and on and on. I just hope it happens sooner than later.
unsprung said:
Today most cars are parked for 95 percent of their usable lifetimes. They are in use only five percent of the time. Autonomous ride share vehicles, in contrast, are projected to be in use something like 70 percent of the time, IIRC.
This is an interesting element to review. Our cars are parked for 95% of them time. Now why is this not being commercially exploited?Why not buy a Prius or a Merc and when you’re not using it rent it out to an Uber driver? It would be easy enough to do. Uber drivers don’t have the money to buy a car, hence why they are working for Uber. They need to rent a vehicle. The private user only uses their car for a short period every day and that usage is highly defined, ie many people just drive it from their home to the same station or office car park at the same time every single day.
The Minicab driver could collect the car or even chauffeur the owner to work and then said end the next 6 hours working the vehicle and generating revenue before wiping it down of all the filth, cum, vomit, faecal waste and blood and returning it to the owner or chauffeuring the owner home and then taking the car out to work a night shift before returning it at the end of the night?
In fact, this has been going on ever since I can remember. I first learnt about this in the 80s as guys effectively ran a premium minicab like a Roller or Merc etc but got to use it as their car and chauffeur. I have Indian clients who have an S class Merc with a driver but the driver uses the car to minicab to keep the running costs down.
So, given that this has happened for years and that we now live in an age where such a model could be runnso incredibly easily in an app and given how desperate so many people are for income or a means to subsidise their over spending, why are people not renting out their cars for minicabbing?
It might suggest that people are more possessive than maybe we expect and surrendering economic efficiency for keeping our chattel static and to ourselves is an easy choice to make.
I don’t particularly like sitting in taxis. They are grubby things but they do offer benefits that outweigh this. Would I share a car? No. If I’m going to own a car then it’s for my use only.
Things are obviously going to change and it’ll be interesting to see the weird and unexpected twists these changes will take.
DonkeyApple said:
The Minicab driver could collect the car or even chauffeur the owner to work and then said end the next 6 hours working the vehicle and generating revenue before wiping it down of all the filth, cum, vomit, faecal waste and blood and returning it to the owner or chauffeuring the owner home and then taking the car out to work a night shift before returning it at the end of the night?
I genuinely just laughed out loud at this!I think you sum up the things many gloss over though. People are incredibly possessive, and the idea of sharing is actually pretty abhorrent to many. Especially those who buy something 'premium'. The idea that someone else gets to enjoy your lovely premium car that you've (also) paid for is beyond acceptable to most....
Edited by RacerMike on Monday 23 April 21:35
Taxis are insanely expensive where I live. Like they are in most places. See how ride share like Uber has exploded, the demand is certainly there.
Now imagine Uber at a fraction of the cost.
Evs will be cheaper to fuel and service and run for a million kilometers.
I'm sure people will still choose to own their car but that proportion will drop fast.
I'm also sure there will be a variety of services so those wanting cleaner more flash transport can have it. After all Mercedes even own their own ride share business already etc
Now imagine Uber at a fraction of the cost.
Evs will be cheaper to fuel and service and run for a million kilometers.
I'm sure people will still choose to own their car but that proportion will drop fast.
I'm also sure there will be a variety of services so those wanting cleaner more flash transport can have it. After all Mercedes even own their own ride share business already etc
RacerMike said:
But if every person who once drove their own car in London (why you'd bother over using mass transit is beyond me) uses a pod, that's still the same number of vehicles on the road at rush hour
Actually it's not the same number of vehicles on the road, because: a) rides are shared and
b) rides are staggered.
This was a central finding of the MIT study noted at link earlier in this thread.
RacerMike said:
And the reason they're not used 95% of the time is because they're parked either overnight or during work hours. So unless 95% more uses are found in the small hours or middle of the day, there will be the same number of parked cars around.
Not really. Cities today have plenty of vehicles in use both during mid-day and at night. The point is that these are the same vehicles that will have taken your mates and you to and from work on your commutes.But you are correct in one regard: the last mile. The rise of autonomous vehicles is said to coincide with a burgeoning of business cases for the last mile (both to and from). Yield maximisation will be a priority of autonomous vehicle operators and there will, consequently, be both B2C and B2B solutions there.
RacerMike said:
Taken to it's extreme, what if Dave who I need to talk to, to resolve an issue decides he isn't working until 3pm because he 'did an all nighter playing COD which really helps his creativity'?
Point taken. I don't believe that employees can all be cast to the wind. Already today we have plenty of easy and affordable technologies for that -- and, yet, we know that in many cases there's no substitute for doing things together and in person.
Your words are a good reminder that we mustn't look upon the opportunities of autonomous and ride-sharing vehicles as a sort of panacea. If we're not realistic in uses, our aspirations will become like so much pop fiction of the 1950s about paper clothing and flying cars.
RacerMike said:
At the complete other end of the ideas spectrum, have a read of this https://singularityhub.com/2018/02/14/why-the-rise... which suggests ownership levels might actually increase!
Total global sales of vehicles will not necessarily decease, because there are many parts of the world which are still emerging markets -- and the people in those markets are experiencing their own version of the post-War Wirtschaftswunder.It's a bit like mobile phones. You travel to some countries and you find high-speed data and the most advanced handsets -- with users weaving together various parts of their day via apps and platforms. In other countries you see a lot of off brands and even a number of feature phones. In the latter two examples, SMS-based solutions may play a remarkably central role.
Rich countries with relatively dense populations (much of Western Europe, for example) are ripe for higher levels of autonomous ride sharing and a corresponding reduction in personally-owned vehicles.
But you won't find the same market opportunity in emerging parts of Latin America. Or in well-developed but sparsely-populated Montana, for that matter.
RacerMike said:
I genuinely just laughed out loud at this!
I think you sum up the things many gloss over though. People are incredibly possessive, and the idea of sharing is actually pretty abhorrent to many. Especially those who buy something 'premium'. The idea that someone else gets to enjoy your lovely premium car that you've (also) paid for is beyond acceptable to most....
I think you sum up the things many gloss over though. People are incredibly possessive, and the idea of sharing is actually pretty abhorrent to many. Especially those who buy something 'premium'. The idea that someone else gets to enjoy your lovely premium car that you've (also) paid for is beyond acceptable to most....
Edited by RacerMike on Monday 23 April 21:35
I’m just a bit of a clean freak. When I take the tube I won’t touch anything. You see all the people picking their noises, scratching their arses and then touching everything. And you know the majority of other people have their own piss on their hands. Same with taxis, I use them but hate having to touch any part of them, all the plastics are sticky with a lifetime’s grime ground into them. I like the idea of sweating assets but not if I’m going to have to use them as well. Sharing a car is, to me, like deciding to just sleep in one of your BTLs while the tennent is away. The idea is repellent but I am well aware that many other people are quite happy to live in the filth of strangers.
RacerMike said:
The concerning thing for me is that many of the major manufacturers are happy to plough money into it based on this fact!
I'm not sure why they're ploughing money into it - if it comes true, the majority of them are out of business. Sales will go through the floor if we all move from ownership of cars that spend 98% of their time sat parked up to rental from a pool of cars that spend 75% of their time in use.I think we will move to driverless cars, but many (not all) people will still want to own one themselves; though they might only own one, where they previously owned two. My car could take my wife to work and then come back home and take me to work. On the rare occasion we both wanted to use it together, we would hire one (possibly rather smelly and dirty, and almost definitely cheap and cheerful) from the pool.
The reality is that the option to try all this is apparently going to be possible fairly soon, so I guess we’ll see what happens! Waymo have signed up to buy a load of EVs including 20,000 I Pace’s, so I suppose the litmus test will be to see how it takes off. I’d be interested to try one to see what it’s like if curiousty of course, but it will be interesting to see if it takes off beyond this.
DonkeyApple said:
why are people not renting out their cars for minicabbing?
RacerMike said:
the idea of sharing is actually pretty abhorrent to many.
This behaviour is already mainstream and widespread. Depending upon the country.If you don't mind too much an example from the other side of the Atlantic: Most large cities in the US have a rising population of local residents using ride sharing services such as Uber and Lyft. I myself use them almost daily.
And when I use the word "share", I do not mean only that the car is shared. I mean that an individual ride is shared. You specify this in the app when you hail the Uber or Lyft car:
a) this ride is for you alone or
b) this ride is for you AND you don't mind having others get in and out of the car during your trip (in exchange for a reduction in your trip price)
Using option B above, I travel approximately three miles for the equivalent of £2.80. Several times a week.
unsprung said:
Using option B above, I travel approximately three miles for the equivalent of £2.80. Several times a week.
I feel slightly ashamed to say I can never bring myself to do this. Don’t have a problem (and quite enjoy) talking to the driver, but I just don’t really fancy sharing a cab with a stranger. I tend to feel that avoiding the prospect of dealing with some complete fruit loop is worth a couple of quid (no offence meant here btw. I’m not suggesting you’re the fruit loop!).unsprung said:
bloomen said:
I don't see how you'd ever have enough of a fleet to service that or have them all in the right place at the right time.
"By combining ride sharing with car sharing, MIT research has shown that it would be possible to take every passenger to his or her destination at the time they need to be there, with 80 percent fewer cars."That's a reduction of eighty percent in the number of cars on the road! Article here.
RacerMike said:
unsprung said:
Using option B above, I travel approximately three miles for the equivalent of £2.80. Several times a week.
I feel slightly ashamed to say I can never bring myself to do this. Don’t have a problem (and quite enjoy) talking to the driver, but I just don’t really fancy sharing a cab with a stranger. I tend to feel that avoiding the prospect of dealing with some complete fruit loop is worth a couple of quid (no offence meant here btw. I’m not suggesting you’re the fruit loop!).Keep in mind, however, that all riders (at least of the two services which I've mentioned) are registered users with a phone number, credit card, billing address and photo on file at the company. Any untoward behaviour is reported by drivers and users -- and the offending individuals can be banned, drivers included.
In two years of ride sharing, I've had maybe two experiences that were uncomfortable or inappropriate. And on mass transit, many more than that!
It's not unusual to travel much of the way across a large city for about £10.00. At such rates, you quickly become comfortable with the idea.
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