RE: Audi to rival Tesla with 590hp e-tron GT
Discussion
Being able to get 200 mile range in 20 minutes is great. Unfortunately you will need to figure in the time waiting behind the queue of Nissan Leafs waiting for the one working charging point.
Tesla’s strength hasn’t been their products for some time, compared to currnt / forthcoming mainstream EVs they are expensive, poorly finished and unreliable.
Tesla’s strength is their infrastructure.
If I were in the market for an EV to travel longer distances on a regular basis then it would still have to be a Tesla and that is actually very disappointing.
Tesla’s strength hasn’t been their products for some time, compared to currnt / forthcoming mainstream EVs they are expensive, poorly finished and unreliable.
Tesla’s strength is their infrastructure.
If I were in the market for an EV to travel longer distances on a regular basis then it would still have to be a Tesla and that is actually very disappointing.
Kenny Powers said:
^^In my opinion the might of the world’s largest and most powerful auto makers will crush Tesla in the long term. If Musk is grinning at cars like this then he’s a fool 
It's always surprising how many people want to see Tesla out of business.Look back at Elon Musks original plans for tesla and you will see that when the big companies flood the market with better EV's he will have achieved his aim
964Cup said:
We drive to Italy and back 5 times a year (so that's 10 x 11 hour journeys), and to France and back 10 times a year (6 hours each way). That's the only reason we own a car at all.
The only way you could be more of an outlier is if you also said you need to tow your helicopter on a trailer while you're doing it, and have enough room for your antique cat coffin collection in the boot.I think the numbers are very good, even if we say 200 miles, thats a quick charge overnight on the drive and for MOST folk (who arent couriers or photocopier salesmen blasting up and down the motorway every day) more than sufficient to avoid having to top up during the day.
I like it, really like it, but it will be an astonishing price to own one of these until EV’s are mainstream enough to drive prices down.
Then the country has a problem, making the switch from fossil fuels and the sudden drop in fuel duty. We simply wont be allowed any cheaper form of driving than we have now. We eill be taxed to the eye balls on these things.
I like it, really like it, but it will be an astonishing price to own one of these until EV’s are mainstream enough to drive prices down.
Then the country has a problem, making the switch from fossil fuels and the sudden drop in fuel duty. We simply wont be allowed any cheaper form of driving than we have now. We eill be taxed to the eye balls on these things.
Edited by dazwalsh on Thursday 29th November 08:03
t.Numeric said:
Tesla appears to me to have four issues. First it has an extraordinary market cap while not actually making money, second it isn't generating net cash though I guess the 3 might get it over the line, third it's volumes are tiny and liable to fluctuation as new opposition finally crawls into existence, fourth the current buyers are evangelists for new concepts - classic early adopters who accept product limitations to have something clever, I would, but my sister wouldn't. For her there is no buy in to a concept, she demands reliability and tight manufacture - I can not say if Tesla's have problems but low volume manufacture often brings such issues.
When reaching out to tier 1 suppliers, most of the contracts in my day had strict volume requirements, if volume wasn't met costs increased per unit. Equally a factory is an evil beast to run - at optimal efficiency they are OK but the motor industry is almost designed to be inefficient due to model cycles - at peak you pay overtime and as the model ages the line runs slower and the fixed costs sit on your head like an anvil - I've been there and it is terrifying how per unit costs explode!
SO - does Tesla have the brand image and model cycle, bearing in mind how expensive it is to update cars and the issues change cause, to fend off the new shiny things in the market, which are produced by companies with production numbers in millions rather than hundreds of thousands, companies with the breadth to absorb a slowing line on product A while product X is rising to peak.
If it is adequately future proofed then the naysayers will be driving Tesla in 20 years. If not it will disappear, the market cap dragging it down as confidence disappears against rising losses and the investor sentiment collapses, as is common with tech things - look at Bitcoin at the moment. Only that market cap makes Tesla viable - if that falls before regular profitability is established it could all get messy.
My heart wishes them well - but I am a cynical economist and I don't think I'd put money in today.
Great post!When reaching out to tier 1 suppliers, most of the contracts in my day had strict volume requirements, if volume wasn't met costs increased per unit. Equally a factory is an evil beast to run - at optimal efficiency they are OK but the motor industry is almost designed to be inefficient due to model cycles - at peak you pay overtime and as the model ages the line runs slower and the fixed costs sit on your head like an anvil - I've been there and it is terrifying how per unit costs explode!
SO - does Tesla have the brand image and model cycle, bearing in mind how expensive it is to update cars and the issues change cause, to fend off the new shiny things in the market, which are produced by companies with production numbers in millions rather than hundreds of thousands, companies with the breadth to absorb a slowing line on product A while product X is rising to peak.
If it is adequately future proofed then the naysayers will be driving Tesla in 20 years. If not it will disappear, the market cap dragging it down as confidence disappears against rising losses and the investor sentiment collapses, as is common with tech things - look at Bitcoin at the moment. Only that market cap makes Tesla viable - if that falls before regular profitability is established it could all get messy.
My heart wishes them well - but I am a cynical economist and I don't think I'd put money in today.
Always a pleasure to hear from somebody who knows what he’s talking about.
Numeric said:
First it has an extraordinary market cap while not actually making money
Its investing, not a unique thing, at a time when car factories are closing across USA they are investing billions... The share price is because they are a tech first mover, not a car company.Numeric said:
second it isn't generating net cash though I guess the 3 might get it over the line
They are now generating a lot of free cash, and a profit last quarter, over the next year they will likely make over $2bn profit. And again the year after.Numeric said:
third it's volumes are tiny and liable to fluctuation as new opposition finally crawls into existence
They double production volumes every year or two, currently they are at a rate of about 1/2 million per year. With a new chinese factory opening in a couple of years, and new production lines in USA for model y, truck, semi and roadster. They are still selling every model S they can make 6 years after launch. Porsche plan 20,000 of these cars a year (no idea if that includes the Audi version. I bet tesla are scared of that.
VAG? well they might have production of 200,000 EVs by 2020.
If anyone challenges Teslas volumes within the next 2-4 years it will be Koreans and Chinese.
Germany will catch up but not until mid next decade.
Numeric said:
fourth the current buyers are evangelists for new concepts - classic early adopters who accept product limitations to have something clever, I would, but my sister wouldn't. For her there is no buy in to a concept, she demands reliability and tight manufacture - I can not say if Tesla's have problems but low volume manufacture often brings such issues.
Your sister wont buy one, well wohoo. cool story bro.Numeric said:
When reaching out to tier 1 suppliers, most of the contracts in my day had strict volume requirements, if volume wasn't met costs increased per unit. Equally a factory is an evil beast to run - at optimal efficiency they are OK but the motor industry is almost designed to be inefficient due to model cycles - at peak you pay overtime and as the model ages the line runs slower and the fixed costs sit on your head like an anvil - I've been there and it is terrifying how per unit costs explode!
Tesla are massively vertically integrated, and as Munroe etc shown their cars have a big advantage because of this and a large margin. You are sounding like a dinosaur here. Tesla in 20 years? Who knows, I would put my money there rather than GM or Ford though.
RobDickinson said:
borat52 said:
Interesting, but until someone proves you can produce a profitable £30k electric car with a decent range that is a relatively nice thing to drive we’ll be seeing the ICE as the mainstay of transport.
What like the Kona electric you mean?It shows huge promise as to where we are heading but it is categorically not evidence that we are there yet. It is manifestly the opposite. EVs still remain the luxury purchase of the wealthy. Those who can afford to pay 50% or more for a product while also having the land to charge it and probably owning another car.
The best selling U.K. car is the Ford Fiesta that costs between £14-£22k and that lower figure has been distorted upwards because they’ve pulled the lowest spec model so as to force consumers into the Ka.
That’s the product that EVs need to not just match but clearly surpass in terms of purchase cost, running cost and with sufficient range to be run by many with just a weekly charge.
When that event takes place then we can stop saying that EVs are fripperies for the wealthiest in society.
All that is open for debate is how soon this will be.
2017 saw 2.5m new car registrations in the U.K. Just 50,000 were capablenof running for a period of time on electric. The bulk of that. 50,000 were hybrids that have an ICE. Very few pure EVs.
We can expect the number of pure EVs to continue to grow rapidly. After all, if you sell 1 car a year and then the filling year you sell 2 that is a stellar 50% growth rate. But we aren’t going to see a genuine, viable range of products for the masses for some time. Hence why the likes of VW who need to generate a very specific amount of revenue from each product are only planning on building a few thousand very high end vehicles for the foreseeable future. It’s the £15k 300 mile Golf that will announce that the world has changed forever not a £100k toy for the wasteful excess consumer.
98elise said:
Kenny Powers said:
^^In my opinion the might of the world’s largest and most powerful auto makers will crush Tesla in the long term. If Musk is grinning at cars like this then he’s a fool
It's always surprising how many people want to see Tesla out of business.Look back at Elon Musks original plans for tesla and you will see that when the big companies flood the market with better EV's he will have achieved his aim
DonkeyApple said:
RobDickinson said:
borat52 said:
Interesting, but until someone proves you can produce a profitable £30k electric car with a decent range that is a relatively nice thing to drive we’ll be seeing the ICE as the mainstay of transport.
What like the Kona electric you mean?
RobDickinson said:
Numeric said:
First it has an extraordinary market cap while not actually making money
Its investing, not a unique thing, at a time when car factories are closing across USA they are investing billions... The share price is because they are a tech first mover, not a car company.Numeric said:
second it isn't generating net cash though I guess the 3 might get it over the line
They are now generating a lot of free cash, and a profit last quarter, over the next year they will likely make over $2bn profit. And again the year after.Numeric said:
third it's volumes are tiny and liable to fluctuation as new opposition finally crawls into existence
They double production volumes every year or two, currently they are at a rate of about 1/2 million per year. With a new chinese factory opening in a couple of years, and new production lines in USA for model y, truck, semi and roadster. They are still selling every model S they can make 6 years after launch. Porsche plan 20,000 of these cars a year (no idea if that includes the Audi version. I bet tesla are scared of that.
VAG? well they might have production of 200,000 EVs by 2020.
If anyone challenges Teslas volumes within the next 2-4 years it will be Koreans and Chinese.
Germany will catch up but not until mid next decade.
Numeric said:
fourth the current buyers are evangelists for new concepts - classic early adopters who accept product limitations to have something clever, I would, but my sister wouldn't. For her there is no buy in to a concept, she demands reliability and tight manufacture - I can not say if Tesla's have problems but low volume manufacture often brings such issues.
Your sister wont buy one, well wohoo. cool story bro.Numeric said:
When reaching out to tier 1 suppliers, most of the contracts in my day had strict volume requirements, if volume wasn't met costs increased per unit. Equally a factory is an evil beast to run - at optimal efficiency they are OK but the motor industry is almost designed to be inefficient due to model cycles - at peak you pay overtime and as the model ages the line runs slower and the fixed costs sit on your head like an anvil - I've been there and it is terrifying how per unit costs explode!
Tesla are massively vertically integrated, and as Munroe etc shown their cars have a big advantage because of this and a large margin. You are sounding like a dinosaur here. Tesla in 20 years? Who knows, I would put my money there rather than GM or Ford though.
Whilst I genuinely hope that Tesla do survive, I fear that they don't have the staying power (or cash reserves) to make it through. Elon is a very, very interesting guy with a lot of good ideas, but he's unfortunately made the same mistake as many others by assuming that the car industry is old and inefficient and entered it with an attitude of 'I can do it better'.
Unlike the tech business, the automotive industry is incredibly hard to revolutionise due in part to the massive raft of legal and safety requirements that one must abide by. Being vertically integrated is a great idea, but the reality is it's very money inefficient. It's actually far better to let your suppliers take the legal and financial risk of developing stuff than it is yourself. Even just assembling cars is risky enough (as outlined by Numeric), so once you start adding sub component design, approval and manufacture to that, you're opening yourself up to a lot of risk.
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