RE: BMW i4: 530hp, 372 miles of range confirmed
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
If all cars had always been electric and someone suddenly invented a box that was half the price and had no usage restrictions, no tax on fuel then I think you’d find it would sell quite well. 
It would be filthy and inefficient, lacking the century plus of development, and would make a noise people would consider ludicrous. There would be nowhere to buy fuel, nobody sane would give up a car that charged at home for one you had to recharge at a dealer. And it wouldn't be half the price, it would be several multiples of the price. It would be banned immediately.Looks great to me.
Of course, people dislike change and I'm sure many people will bemoan it's soulless, or it's too heavy. or it won't handle honestly 99% of buyers don't care and the car industry doesn't care enough about the 1% who do to make cars for them.
Like it or not, this is how it's going to be, you can moan about it, protest, even buy the last ICE powered car and keep hold of it looooong after it's practical or anyone cares.
Tesla have got 2-4 years to get their s
t together, I've seen a few Tesla 3's about, but they make 300k cars a year, they're hoping to double that soon. BWM crank out 2 million cars a year, VW 6 million - when their EV ranges launch they're going to batter Tesla with their brand awareness and undercut them with their economies of scale. Lots of people thought that Tesla was destined to fail, that really they were going to sell their tech to the mainstream, make billions and walk away, but the established brands seem to have beaten them at their own game. Tesla might get more KWH per KGS, but VW have halved the charging time. They might have 290 charging points in the UK, but there's not a chance in hell the market is going to mature with manufacturer only charging points.
BP have already started putting charging points at their stations - do we really think 5 years from now we'll all be desperately looking for the right kind of charging station because not a single soul has considered exchanging electricity for money? Nah
Of course, people dislike change and I'm sure many people will bemoan it's soulless, or it's too heavy. or it won't handle honestly 99% of buyers don't care and the car industry doesn't care enough about the 1% who do to make cars for them.
Like it or not, this is how it's going to be, you can moan about it, protest, even buy the last ICE powered car and keep hold of it looooong after it's practical or anyone cares.
Tesla have got 2-4 years to get their s
t together, I've seen a few Tesla 3's about, but they make 300k cars a year, they're hoping to double that soon. BWM crank out 2 million cars a year, VW 6 million - when their EV ranges launch they're going to batter Tesla with their brand awareness and undercut them with their economies of scale. Lots of people thought that Tesla was destined to fail, that really they were going to sell their tech to the mainstream, make billions and walk away, but the established brands seem to have beaten them at their own game. Tesla might get more KWH per KGS, but VW have halved the charging time. They might have 290 charging points in the UK, but there's not a chance in hell the market is going to mature with manufacturer only charging points.BP have already started putting charging points at their stations - do we really think 5 years from now we'll all be desperately looking for the right kind of charging station because not a single soul has considered exchanging electricity for money? Nah
J4CKO said:
I am sure they would have been better than they are now, and a lot is down to where the development focus is directed, but also sometimes things have to grow organically.
I always mention how there is always a "placeholder" technology, it is what will work right now, even if its not the best way to do something, then other developments occur that are then the catalyst for the better tech to take over from the placeholder.
CRT's were about for what about 90 years, Liquid Crystal was reserved for watches until manufacturers perfected bigger and bigger screens with full colour, it took a while but the CRT which was huge, heavy, inefficient and expensive to produce was dropped as soon as LCD was good, and cheap enough.
The internet is a huge catalyst, for audio and video, wasn't so long ago we were going to get a huge tape containing a film, or later on a shiny disk, we didn't have to rewind it, but we still had to go and get it, then take it back,or fill a shelf full of the bloody things. Data speeds rise and physical media starts dying off almost instantly, its so much more elegant a solution. Yes some of us like old records, tapes, videos and the like but as someone said earlier, if the internet existed, would we create a VHS cassette ?
The placeholder always gets very well developed, but then gets blitzed out of existence as soon as the more elegant solution is viable and cost effective, it will take longer with cars than CRT's as they are bigger items and people attach a lot more value to old ones, nobody I don't think is going to an event where a load of folk display theur vintage Pye 26 inch telly and Ferguson videostar.
But, a machine that burns distilled oil via a complicated, and inefficient mechanical ballet that generates vast amounts of heat, vibration and noise vs the electric motor, a beautifully smooth, balanced, efficient, silent, simple, powerful etc device. Its just better in every meaningful way for its intended purpose, apart from the noise which we have grown to love, it is steeped in all sorts of emotions but if electric propulsion had always been viable, cant imagine anyone would have pursued developing something that gassed you and made a racket.
The actual motor isn't the problem, its just the energy storage, that is the catalyst, not just for the current adoption where its good enough, it will be when its better than using ICE alternatives, may still be a way off bit its happening.
In the meantime, we are going to look at Mustang GT's soon, makes no sense but we should enjoy the now however we see fit, this might be the good bit, can still have some lovely old motors, some exciting stuff coming and some great stuff out now !
I feel this is an under appreciated comment. Elegantly put. I always mention how there is always a "placeholder" technology, it is what will work right now, even if its not the best way to do something, then other developments occur that are then the catalyst for the better tech to take over from the placeholder.
CRT's were about for what about 90 years, Liquid Crystal was reserved for watches until manufacturers perfected bigger and bigger screens with full colour, it took a while but the CRT which was huge, heavy, inefficient and expensive to produce was dropped as soon as LCD was good, and cheap enough.
The internet is a huge catalyst, for audio and video, wasn't so long ago we were going to get a huge tape containing a film, or later on a shiny disk, we didn't have to rewind it, but we still had to go and get it, then take it back,or fill a shelf full of the bloody things. Data speeds rise and physical media starts dying off almost instantly, its so much more elegant a solution. Yes some of us like old records, tapes, videos and the like but as someone said earlier, if the internet existed, would we create a VHS cassette ?
The placeholder always gets very well developed, but then gets blitzed out of existence as soon as the more elegant solution is viable and cost effective, it will take longer with cars than CRT's as they are bigger items and people attach a lot more value to old ones, nobody I don't think is going to an event where a load of folk display theur vintage Pye 26 inch telly and Ferguson videostar.
But, a machine that burns distilled oil via a complicated, and inefficient mechanical ballet that generates vast amounts of heat, vibration and noise vs the electric motor, a beautifully smooth, balanced, efficient, silent, simple, powerful etc device. Its just better in every meaningful way for its intended purpose, apart from the noise which we have grown to love, it is steeped in all sorts of emotions but if electric propulsion had always been viable, cant imagine anyone would have pursued developing something that gassed you and made a racket.
The actual motor isn't the problem, its just the energy storage, that is the catalyst, not just for the current adoption where its good enough, it will be when its better than using ICE alternatives, may still be a way off bit its happening.
In the meantime, we are going to look at Mustang GT's soon, makes no sense but we should enjoy the now however we see fit, this might be the good bit, can still have some lovely old motors, some exciting stuff coming and some great stuff out now !
P-Jay said:
Tesla have got 2-4 years to get their st together, I've seen a few Tesla 3's about, but they make 300k cars a year, they're hoping to double that soon. BWM crank out 2 million cars a year, VW 6 million - when their EV ranges launch they're going to batter Tesla
By the time this i4 hits the market if its on schedule (every German maker had missed) tesla will have Gf4 open and an annual production of 1m at least. With 400k they are already the most valuable USA auto maker... t together, I've seen a few Tesla 3's about, but they make 300k cars a year, they're hoping to double that soon. BWM crank out 2 million cars a year, VW 6 million - when their EV ranges launch they're going to batter Tesla BTW vag launched their ev range with the etron that's pretty much died. Hth.
That’s just BS. The reason BMW and others aren’t falling over themselves is because they already have a core business. EV demand is still low and BMW, as a car manufacturer, unlike Tesla, will actually make money from the business. The Model 3 I saw up close last weekend had a frankly embarrassing interior and I think it looks awful. An i3 is more interesting in most ways. In a decade Tesla will be gone and you, along with all the Tesla fanboys will driving something else.
ruggedscotty said:
what about the interest ? there is loads of interest, most of the car buying customer base want...…
car to complete their commute, they have no interest in handling or performance other than how much salary it eats running it.
EV fanbase keep telling us this but it simply is not true. Hardly anyone buys EV's it is a really small market. No one I know owns an EV and further they aren't interested in owning one^.car to complete their commute, they have no interest in handling or performance other than how much salary it eats running it.
TX.
^example of small numbers wanting one vs "most of the car buying customer".
DonkeyApple said:
Killboy said:
DonkeyApple said:
If all cars had always been electric and someone suddenly invented a box that was half the price and had no usage restrictions, no tax on fuel then I think you’d find it would sell quite well.
But they are not half the price?
So, if ICE had only just been invented, there would be no supply chain for the engine, transmission, after-treatment, fuel, cooling and lubrication systems, so the cost of a low volume ICE would be astronomical (try and buy a F1 engine for example, which has the same parts (architecturally speaking) as the engine in a fiesta (crank, pistons, rods, valves, block, head, exhaust, inlet etc etc)
The fact that an "newly developed" ICE wouldn't have any after-treatement (Cats, DPF,PPF, SCR not invented yet), and the fact that most of the support systems (such as multispeed gearboxes) also wouldn't exist, then the engine released would look at lot like this:
So, would you pay £100,000 for a car with a 4 litre engine, made just 26 hp and that did 3 mpg at best, had to be started with a handle, needed servicing every 100 miles, broke down every 200 miles, and spewed noxious raw gases out the back?
Of course you wouldn't.........
Terminator X said:
ruggedscotty said:
what about the interest ? there is loads of interest, most of the car buying customer base want...…
car to complete their commute, they have no interest in handling or performance other than how much salary it eats running it.
EV fanbase keep telling us this but it simply is not true. Hardly anyone buys EV's it is a really small market. No one I know owns an EV and further they aren't interested in owning one^.car to complete their commute, they have no interest in handling or performance other than how much salary it eats running it.
TX.
^example of small numbers wanting one vs "most of the car buying customer".
I'm on my 2nd i3 and really really like the approach BMW took with it. Ground up, challenge convention, clever materials and design and don't just make it look like any other car. This approach gave BMW freedom to build something around an EV powertrain, rather than build an EV around a powertrain designed for an ICE.
That i4 just looks like another plus-size derivative of every other dull model in the range. Honestly, I wouldn't have an EV if it looked like a 3 series (and I've had several 3 series, e46/e90/f30 - fine cars as they are).
People often say all cars look the same and many designs are just a bit dull and boring unless you can afford the big money for niche cars. Reading comments here confirms why - unless it looks like everything else no matter how pointlessly compromised, then many many people will shy away from buying as they don't want anything that looks different from every other car in the street.
All credit for BMW being bold with the i3 and i8. I've every intention of keeping this one (an i3s), especially if future models like the i4 look so boringly normal.
I've had several BMW's but that i4 does nothing at all for me (like most of the rest of the range they've produced over the last couple of years) other than it looking like another safe design that needs a massive battery pack to give it more range than 95% of people actually need day to day, that will make it huge on the road, heavy and take forever to charge on the majority of 7kW charger that are the most common around the place.
That i4 just looks like another plus-size derivative of every other dull model in the range. Honestly, I wouldn't have an EV if it looked like a 3 series (and I've had several 3 series, e46/e90/f30 - fine cars as they are).
People often say all cars look the same and many designs are just a bit dull and boring unless you can afford the big money for niche cars. Reading comments here confirms why - unless it looks like everything else no matter how pointlessly compromised, then many many people will shy away from buying as they don't want anything that looks different from every other car in the street.
All credit for BMW being bold with the i3 and i8. I've every intention of keeping this one (an i3s), especially if future models like the i4 look so boringly normal.
I've had several BMW's but that i4 does nothing at all for me (like most of the rest of the range they've produced over the last couple of years) other than it looking like another safe design that needs a massive battery pack to give it more range than 95% of people actually need day to day, that will make it huge on the road, heavy and take forever to charge on the majority of 7kW charger that are the most common around the place.
BMW needed this car start of this year.
They released a new 3 series end of last year/early this year - that was designed and sales were predicted before the model 3 was out.
Sales in USA are getting smashed, sales in many European countries are getting smashed. This will only get worse as tesla can make more of them and as Europe get more into Evs - expect the market to change a lot in UK next year.
Yet this is just the first year of sales of an 8 year platform for BMW.
BMW USA must be crapping themselves over the model Y launch as the X3 and X5 are major sellers.
What I find confusing is BMW were onto it with the i3 (and i8 somewhat) and dropped the ball. Fine to milk the Euro diesel surge but why dont they have a car ready now?
They released a new 3 series end of last year/early this year - that was designed and sales were predicted before the model 3 was out.
Sales in USA are getting smashed, sales in many European countries are getting smashed. This will only get worse as tesla can make more of them and as Europe get more into Evs - expect the market to change a lot in UK next year.
Yet this is just the first year of sales of an 8 year platform for BMW.
BMW USA must be crapping themselves over the model Y launch as the X3 and X5 are major sellers.
What I find confusing is BMW were onto it with the i3 (and i8 somewhat) and dropped the ball. Fine to milk the Euro diesel surge but why dont they have a car ready now?
RobDickinson said:
P-Jay said:
Tesla have got 2-4 years to get their st together, I've seen a few Tesla 3's about, but they make 300k cars a year, they're hoping to double that soon. BWM crank out 2 million cars a year, VW 6 million - when their EV ranges launch they're going to batter Tesla
By the time this i4 hits the market if its on schedule (every German maker had missed) tesla will have Gf4 open and an annual production of 1m at least. With 400k they are already the most valuable USA auto maker... t together, I've seen a few Tesla 3's about, but they make 300k cars a year, they're hoping to double that soon. BWM crank out 2 million cars a year, VW 6 million - when their EV ranges launch they're going to batter Tesla BTW vag launched their ev range with the etron that's pretty much died. Hth.
otolith said:
DonkeyApple said:
If all cars had always been electric and someone suddenly invented a box that was half the price and had no usage restrictions, no tax on fuel then I think you’d find it would sell quite well.
It would be filthy and inefficient, lacking the century plus of development, and would make a noise people would consider ludicrous. There would be nowhere to buy fuel, nobody sane would give up a car that charged at home for one you had to recharge at a dealer. And it wouldn't be half the price, it would be several multiples of the price. It would be banned immediately.. And not a single person could ever work out how to distribute petrol, that certainly couldn’t be done. And it absolutely would be banned immediately. That’s absolutely giranteed because every new thing that isn’t brilliant for the environment is banned. and there is no chance at all that third world countries wouldn’t leap at the opportunity to get their population mobile, as seen by China, they will all stay on pushbikes. Max_Torque said:
Totally incorrect. The Internal combustion engine is complex, extremely difficult to make, and has masses of very very tight mechanical tolerances that require an ultra-high precision supply chain. The ONLY reason an ICE car is cheap today is because of economies of scale. At any equivalent manufacturing volume, the EV is a cheaper car to make because it is much simpler. ie it contains not just a lower number of parts, but those parts are fundamentally simple, and critically, fundamentally parallel. For example, a "big" battery is exactly the same as a small battery, it just contains more of a modular cell. Today, most OE studies i have seen put the equivalent volume cost of an EV at something like 65% of that of an equivalent ICE, even at today's battery cell costs. As those costs fall (and they are rapidly) projections have EVs at around 40% of the cost of ICE!
So, if ICE had only just been invented, there would be no supply chain for the engine, transmission, after-treatment, fuel, cooling and lubrication systems, so the cost of a low volume ICE would be astronomical (try and buy a F1 engine for example, which has the same parts (architecturally speaking) as the engine in a fiesta (crank, pistons, rods, valves, block, head, exhaust, inlet etc etc)
The fact that an "newly developed" ICE wouldn't have any after-treatement (Cats, DPF,PPF, SCR not invented yet), and the fact that most of the support systems (such as multispeed gearboxes) also wouldn't exist, then the engine released would look at lot like this:
So, would you pay £100,000 for a car with a 4 litre engine, made just 26 hp and that did 3 mpg at best, had to be started with a handle, needed servicing every 100 miles, broke down every 200 miles, and spewed noxious raw gases out the back?
Of course you wouldn't.........
And yet, man has managed to make these hugely complex and awfully impossible to make things while they are only just managing to make an EV that only gets bought in locations where there are strong government incentives. The future is coming but don’t try and kid anyone that it is here today. They are toys for the affluent not yet tools for the masses. So, if ICE had only just been invented, there would be no supply chain for the engine, transmission, after-treatment, fuel, cooling and lubrication systems, so the cost of a low volume ICE would be astronomical (try and buy a F1 engine for example, which has the same parts (architecturally speaking) as the engine in a fiesta (crank, pistons, rods, valves, block, head, exhaust, inlet etc etc)
The fact that an "newly developed" ICE wouldn't have any after-treatement (Cats, DPF,PPF, SCR not invented yet), and the fact that most of the support systems (such as multispeed gearboxes) also wouldn't exist, then the engine released would look at lot like this:
So, would you pay £100,000 for a car with a 4 litre engine, made just 26 hp and that did 3 mpg at best, had to be started with a handle, needed servicing every 100 miles, broke down every 200 miles, and spewed noxious raw gases out the back?
Of course you wouldn't.........
Did you see my questions re the i3 by the way? I’d be interested in your input.
Terminator X said:
EV fanbase keep telling us this but it simply is not true. Hardly anyone buys EV's it is a really small market. No one I know owns an EV and further they aren't interested in owning one^.
TX.
^example of small numbers wanting one vs "most of the car buying customer".
Times are changing relatively quickly.TX.
^example of small numbers wanting one vs "most of the car buying customer".
I work with one chap who has an i3, one has a Zoe, two more have just had e-Golf’s and another collects his Model 3 on Friday. All of these cars have happened in the last few months. That’s quite a big change in buying habits in a relatively short space of time. Kia and Hyundai have closed order books for their EV’s due to demand and there are massive waiting lists for those have ordered one.
A PM I work with swapped his 535d for a Model S last year and it works despite his crazy mileage. One of my family members has had a Model S for a while now and loves it; they won’t ever go back.
RobDickinson said:
What I find confusing is BMW were onto it with the i3 (and i8 somewhat) and dropped the ball. Fine to milk the Euro diesel surge but why dont they have a car ready now?
That is what I find odd too. They were ahead of MB and VAG with both of these cars but failed to really develop them. Yes the range has improved on the i3, but they seem to be happy to let the interesting i cars die out. DonkeyApple said:
Max_Torque said:
Totally incorrect. The Internal combustion engine is complex, extremely difficult to make, and has masses of very very tight mechanical tolerances that require an ultra-high precision supply chain. The ONLY reason an ICE car is cheap today is because of economies of scale. At any equivalent manufacturing volume, the EV is a cheaper car to make because it is much simpler. ie it contains not just a lower number of parts, but those parts are fundamentally simple, and critically, fundamentally parallel. For example, a "big" battery is exactly the same as a small battery, it just contains more of a modular cell. Today, most OE studies i have seen put the equivalent volume cost of an EV at something like 65% of that of an equivalent ICE, even at today's battery cell costs. As those costs fall (and they are rapidly) projections have EVs at around 40% of the cost of ICE!
So, if ICE had only just been invented, there would be no supply chain for the engine, transmission, after-treatment, fuel, cooling and lubrication systems, so the cost of a low volume ICE would be astronomical (try and buy a F1 engine for example, which has the same parts (architecturally speaking) as the engine in a fiesta (crank, pistons, rods, valves, block, head, exhaust, inlet etc etc)
The fact that an "newly developed" ICE wouldn't have any after-treatement (Cats, DPF,PPF, SCR not invented yet), and the fact that most of the support systems (such as multispeed gearboxes) also wouldn't exist, then the engine released would look at lot like this:
So, would you pay £100,000 for a car with a 4 litre engine, made just 26 hp and that did 3 mpg at best, had to be started with a handle, needed servicing every 100 miles, broke down every 200 miles, and spewed noxious raw gases out the back?
Of course you wouldn't.........
And yet, man has managed to make these hugely complex and awfully impossible to make things while they are only just managing to make an EV that only gets bought in locations where there are strong government incentives. The future is coming but don’t try and kid anyone that it is here today. They are toys for the affluent not yet tools for the masses. So, if ICE had only just been invented, there would be no supply chain for the engine, transmission, after-treatment, fuel, cooling and lubrication systems, so the cost of a low volume ICE would be astronomical (try and buy a F1 engine for example, which has the same parts (architecturally speaking) as the engine in a fiesta (crank, pistons, rods, valves, block, head, exhaust, inlet etc etc)
The fact that an "newly developed" ICE wouldn't have any after-treatement (Cats, DPF,PPF, SCR not invented yet), and the fact that most of the support systems (such as multispeed gearboxes) also wouldn't exist, then the engine released would look at lot like this:
So, would you pay £100,000 for a car with a 4 litre engine, made just 26 hp and that did 3 mpg at best, had to be started with a handle, needed servicing every 100 miles, broke down every 200 miles, and spewed noxious raw gases out the back?
Of course you wouldn't.........
More connected world, the fact we are talking about it on here being a case in point.
Road network is already there.
Folk are used to personal transport.
Manufacturing base is there.
Charging infrastructure is in place, even if it isn't fully up to capacity.
Court_S said:
Terminator X said:
EV fanbase keep telling us this but it simply is not true. Hardly anyone buys EV's it is a really small market. No one I know owns an EV and further they aren't interested in owning one^.
TX.
^example of small numbers wanting one vs "most of the car buying customer".
Times are changing relatively quickly.TX.
^example of small numbers wanting one vs "most of the car buying customer".
I work with one chap who has an i3, one has a Zoe, two more have just had e-Golf’s and another collects his Model 3 on Friday. All of these cars have happened in the last few months. That’s quite a big change in buying habits in a relatively short space of time. Kia and Hyundai have closed order books for their EV’s due to demand and there are massive waiting lists for those have ordered one.
A PM I work with swapped his 535d for a Model S last year and it works despite his crazy mileage. One of my family members has had a Model S for a while now and loves it; they won’t ever go back.
Things like the i3, iPace and Tesla’s are common sites now in central London and in the Cotswolds. I’ve not really noticed any other EVs but they are probably there but just not standing out so much.
Most of my peers, like myself, are fully aware of EVs and have a total expectation to buy one as a replacement vehicle when it makes sense to do so. Most of my peer’s children and my own are as aware of Tesla’s as I would have been of Ferrari’s etc at their age. My children are 8 & 9, girls and have learned about electric cars from their engagement with their outside world, not from me, I have taught them about the merits of post war pushrod V8s over crappy diesels.
Yesterday I drove into London and noticed half a dozen Tesla S on the M40 and a couple of iPaces. All pottering along at 55 in the middle lane doing what those sort of punters like to do on the only motorway in the UK where 90 is still quite normal and most people still keep left unless overtaking. A year ago I probably would have seen one Tesla hypermiling. Once in London I guess I noticed nearly a dozen i3s just getting from the M1 to St John’s Wood.
Out in the Cotswolds more and more establishments and holiday rentals are installing charging to attract customers and the various premium EVs are now common sites.
Stray to more normal parts of the UK and they are still rare sites.
People are right that EVs aren’t really selling in any kind of relevant numbers but other people are also right that this is changing very rapidly.
Some time in the next decade we will arguably reach a figure of 50% of new car sales being EVs and about another decade further beyond that around 50% of carsbon the road being EVs. It’s not going to stop now, there is too much legislation, too much capital from manufacturers committed.
What’s not going to happen is any sudden change regardless of the screaming demands of the religious fanatics, it’s going to happen at the pace dictated by the natural pace that it takes to bring lithium production sites on stream, the speed it takes to raise the capital, the speed to build the factories and ultimately to find the customers with enough spending power etc. And what is also not going to happen is the genie being put back in the bottle.
Terminator X said:
unsprung said:
Your words are poorly chosen.
You've not read what I wrote. Here are the facts that justify my claims:
BEV GROWTH OF 200%
. . . 2020 . . . 3%
. . . 2025 . . . 9%
Source: J. P. Morgan estimates
https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/electric-...
TX.
It does, however, shed light on my argument that the next 36 months are likely to be a watershed moment in the evolution of BEVs.While the 200 percent increase is, on a nominal basis, impressive... The most compelling thing is less about total units sold and more about the transition in adopter stage that this will bring about. See the Rogers curve. (thumbnail below)
In the next 36 months, as BEVs climb their way toward 9 percent of the car market, the BEV market itself will change. It will no longer be the sole domain of the Innovator. Increasingly, it will be shared with the Early Adopter. (again the thumbnail below)
This strongly supports my argument that, in the next 36 months, more PHers will be among the keepers and lessors of BEVs. You have disagreed with that. You have also disagreed with my claim that, over the next 36 months, many more PHers will have been a passenger in somebody else's BEV. Some others will have had the opportunity to drive a mate's BEV.
All of this can make for a lot of "Remember when..." moments and, yes, for some people, moments that will be memorable because they were in a sense life changing.
Mainstream manufacturers know this. That's why, for example, Ford are putting a Mustang-inspired BEV into the crossover segment. That's why Volkswagen have said that between this year and 2025, they will launch 50 new BEV vehicles.
Diffusion of Innovations curve:
J4CKO said:
A familiar trajectory, but I think it will be a lot quicker than the 70 or so years ICE cars took to gain traction.
More connected world, the fact we are talking about it on here being a case in point.
Road network is already there.
Folk are used to personal transport.
Manufacturing base is there.
Charging infrastructure is in place, even if it isn't fully up to capacity.
Absolutely agree. It’s still not going to be as quick as some people think. Even when we reach 50% of new cars in the UK being EVs that still takes well over a decade for it to reach 50% of cars in the UK. More connected world, the fact we are talking about it on here being a case in point.
Road network is already there.
Folk are used to personal transport.
Manufacturing base is there.
Charging infrastructure is in place, even if it isn't fully up to capacity.
And the UK isn’t the world, it’s one of a few countries which have legislation to promote EVs. We only need to look to the collection of countries in the EU to see the rather stark differences in adoption rates where there are not these big central government initiatives. And that’s the developed world. A lot of people don’t seem to appreciate that they live on a small island and are very affluent in contrast to the other 8bn on the planet. And that aside, we don’t produce enough Lithium on the planet to cater for mass adoption and it takes around a decade to bring new supply on stream.
Companies like Tesla have a very globally parochial outlook, they make a product purely for the few global elite. The global manufacturers have a global outlook and will be making ICE cars for decades to come as well as expanding their EV production as affluent consumer demand expands.
There is also the global economic outlook to consider. If we continue the current global slowdown then consumer demand for EVs will be hit.
And finally there is the rather big political elephant in the room which is that the Chinese government controls the production of pretry much every key element required to build an electric motor and a battery, while the US is still fighting wars over the control of oil.
Even if everyone in the UK wanted an EV and could afford an EV they are still going to have to buy a lot of ICE cars or hybrids for a long time to come.
What isn’t going to change is the terminal decline of the performance ICE. That’s pretty much dead. Legislation is against them, EVs are faster and at the premium price point these types of car sell at an EV is better value.
Performance ICE is dead. Generic, utility box ICE is still alive and kicking and has to be because it’s going to take years for EVs to be able to be built in sufficient numbers and at a low enough price to our compete them. Even in the affluent UK.
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