End of petrol and hybrid
Discussion
TheRainMaker said:
otolith said:
"Both the AA and the RAC acknowledge that with more electric vehicles on our roads, the likelihood of them running out of charge is increasing, so they’re working on ways to replenish their batteries. The AA says it attends around 3000 EV breakdowns a year, and this figure is rising rapidly. "
3000, not 4000?
I can't get a figure for how many breakdowns they attended in total, but they say they attend one every 9 seconds (that would be 3.5 million) and also that their 2700 mechanics each attend more than 1200 breakdowns a year (that would be 3.24 million). Taking the lower figure, 3000 would be 0.09% of their breakdowns. At the end of 2018, ULEVs amounted to 0.5% of all licensed vehicles. That 0.5% breaks down into 0.28% plug in hybrids, 0.175% pure electric cars, 0.025% range extended electric cars, 0.02% "other".
0.09% of callouts on 0.175% of cars doesn't sound entirely unlikely, given that there are some common callouts that don't depend on the power source (ran out of fuel/charge, flat tyre, locked self out, non-powertrain mechanical failure)
Yep 3000, fat fingers on the phone.3000, not 4000?
I can't get a figure for how many breakdowns they attended in total, but they say they attend one every 9 seconds (that would be 3.5 million) and also that their 2700 mechanics each attend more than 1200 breakdowns a year (that would be 3.24 million). Taking the lower figure, 3000 would be 0.09% of their breakdowns. At the end of 2018, ULEVs amounted to 0.5% of all licensed vehicles. That 0.5% breaks down into 0.28% plug in hybrids, 0.175% pure electric cars, 0.025% range extended electric cars, 0.02% "other".
0.09% of callouts on 0.175% of cars doesn't sound entirely unlikely, given that there are some common callouts that don't depend on the power source (ran out of fuel/charge, flat tyre, locked self out, non-powertrain mechanical failure)
EV cars for me mean fully electric only, how many fully electric cars are on the UK roads at the moment?
I also agree it doesn't say the call outs are for drive train or battery-related problems, it just seems a high figure for what are brand new cars, most will be less than a year old.
RobDickinson said:
Nope, I don't know of an ev, or many modern cars, that do
our 2020 Toyota CHR hybrid doesn't come with one. My 2019 van that was a third of the price did 
I still ended up stuck at the side of the road in my van recently though... I got a puncture 4 weeks ago. Then got another one this week and I hadn't quite got around to replacing the spare yet
What happens to all the manufacturers of exhausts, coolant, radiators etc? Game over in the future I guess. I assume there will have to come a point where ICE cars will be banned from being used. I mean, if the majority of the population decide to just hang on to their petrol or diesels, it seems a bit pointless to even bother going green.
I guess they will just make it almost impossible in the end to use them anywhere. Banned from towns and cities, banned from motorways (or charges so high most won't bother)
I guess they will just make it almost impossible in the end to use them anywhere. Banned from towns and cities, banned from motorways (or charges so high most won't bother)
Digby said:
Cobalt won't be in ev batteries for long and is recyclable unlike the cobalt they use processing crude oil into petrol. otolith said:
They have a finite life, stop selling new ones and eventually the whole fleet will be electric (or near as doesn’t matter)
Half Europe's car sales in 2025 will be electric and way over 90% by 2030.If your business is making new exhausts for oem look to switch, if not there will still be plenty old ice cars for 15-20 years to sell too
RobDickinson said:
Half Europe's car sales in 2025 will be electric
No it won't .Currently approx 15.5 million cars are sold per year in Europe.
Best estimations from optimists are approx 6.2 million EVs sold in 2025.. so that's quite a bit off 50%.
Maybe in Norway............but the infrastructure is much better..... so over half of car sales currently are EV..... see.... good infrastructure sells..... :-) !!!!!
A European EV sales around 30-35% in 2025 sounds more realistic.
Perhaps if the Government announced :
.... plans for better charging infrastructure on the road and your homes and place of work
.... what their future plans for road / fuel taxing will be and how EV fit into this
.... better grants to tempt consumers into EV
Then maybe more people would buy EV.
I don't have more recent data but in 2018, only 15,474 full EVs were sold/registeted in the UK.
I don't care about Europe as a whole. f
k them. And some more recent data :
Of course 200% growth looks great... great to use at your board meeting.
But if you sell 5 one year and 20 the next....... :-)
Where if you look at Hybrids of all kinds, they seen much more popular.
Personally I think a plug in Hybrid is the best compromise.
You can get a realistic 30 to 50 mile range all on EV for your commute "average driver only does 7.7k per year" all that b
ks.Then use your car normally if you have a longer journey or can't get to a charger
It's a win win for everyone! Except the EV bum boys !! ;-) !!!
xjay1337 said:
Currently approx 15.5 million cars are sold per year in Europe.
Best estimations from optimists are approx 6.2 million EVs sold in 2025.. so that's quite a bit off 50%.
Maybe in Norway............but the infrastructure is much better..... so over half of car sales currently are EV..... see.... good infrastructure sells..... :-) !!!!!
Norway is already over half.Best estimations from optimists are approx 6.2 million EVs sold in 2025.. so that's quite a bit off 50%.
Maybe in Norway............but the infrastructure is much better..... so over half of car sales currently are EV..... see.... good infrastructure sells..... :-) !!!!!
Every estimation is off because they are not predicting change fast enough.
And so what if its 45%? No one will be buying piston engine combustion cars in Europe in 2030
RobDickinson said:
xjay1337 said:
Currently approx 15.5 million cars are sold per year in Europe.
Best estimations from optimists are approx 6.2 million EVs sold in 2025.. so that's quite a bit off 50%.
Maybe in Norway............but the infrastructure is much better..... so over half of car sales currently are EV..... see.... good infrastructure sells..... :-) !!!!!
No one will be buying piston engine combustion cars in Europe in 2030Best estimations from optimists are approx 6.2 million EVs sold in 2025.. so that's quite a bit off 50%.
Maybe in Norway............but the infrastructure is much better..... so over half of car sales currently are EV..... see.... good infrastructure sells..... :-) !!!!!
RobDickinson said:
Norway is already over half.
Every estimation is off because they are not predicting change fast enough.
And so what if its 45%? No one will be buying piston engine combustion cars in Europe in 2030
Norway is over half because of the massive package of financial benefits that come from running an EV and whilst most EU countries subsidise EVs to a certain extent, none subsidise them as heavily as Norway.Every estimation is off because they are not predicting change fast enough.
And so what if its 45%? No one will be buying piston engine combustion cars in Europe in 2030
You only need to look at the fall in EV sales when subsidies are lessened to see how much EV sales currently depend on those financial benefit such as the 60% fall in sales in Denmark when they reduced their tax breaks.
How many EU governments are not only going to be able to continue subsidising half of new car sales but also at a rate equivalent to Norway in order to achieve 50% EV sales in 5 or 10 years?
Last year just 165 BEVs and 202 PHEVs were sold in Slovakia. To go from that to 100% EV sales there in just 10 years would be miraculous.
V10 SPM said:
You really think no one in Ukraine or Russia will buy a petrol or diesel in 2030? Or Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Moldova, etc.?
It's OK he lives in La la landNo matter what information you provide him with, Tesla will never be beaten and EVs are literally better than anything ever made. (According to Rob!)
RobDickinson said:
No one will be buying piston engine combustion cars in Europe in 2030
Mostly agreed, No one will be buying NEW piston engined cars in WESTERN Europe in 2030.In the same way no one buys fossil fuel open fires in their homes today. It will take much longer for existing product in circulation to die out - probably 5 to 10 years after. (Edge cases excepted)
V10 SPM said:
You really think no one in Ukraine or Russia will buy a petrol or diesel in 2030? Or Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Moldova, etc.?
Doesn't it depend how the technology/price has improved? If china are selling £8000 EVs with 300 mile range then I'm sure peopl will buy those.RobDickinson said:
Oh gosh Albania with its 2500 new cars a year sales, oooh yes lets talk about them...
even the others are rounding errors
Interesting. Romania had more new car sales than Norway last year but Romania is a rounding error and Norway is the epitome of European EV sales.even the others are rounding errors
So "no one in Europe" really means ...
I don't have a crystal ball, so I'm not going to attempt to guess how much of the EU market will be electrified in the near future, but I would point out that we are on the cusp of a step change in choice and availability which will make choosing an electric car a much more obvious choice for many.
https://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/...
https://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/...
otolith said:
I don't have a crystal ball, so I'm not going to attempt to guess how much of the EU market will be electrified in the near future, but I would point out that we are on the cusp of a step change in choice and availability which will make choosing an electric car a much more obvious choice for many.
https://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/...
Yes, but this is all being pushed by legislation; taxation on the individual and also taxation on auto manufacturers, on the basis of overall product emissions.https://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/...
I'm uncomfortable with government(s) forcing technologically change so bluntly, because it rarely works and, more often than not, throws out unintended consequences.
By which, see dieselgate, and see also DPFs which either clog up with their own condensation, or otherwise feed it back into the engine to dilute the oil and cause critical failures.
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