RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

Author
Discussion

Black S2K

1,030 posts

204 months

Saturday 8th February
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Max_Torque said:
Black S2K said:
Just for clarification, when people claim that the bigger Teslas/Ian Paices/etc are the least energy-efficient BEVs as they are so large, that's more due to frontal area than due to their mass?

Or are you just referring to the more typical urban driving environment as opposed to overall?
The larger SUV's are higher consumers for a couple of main reasons:

1) Yes they are heavier - being heavier does use more energy. A 2 .4 tonne ETRON uses more energy than a 1.2 tonne i3. (both use less energy to change the speed of their mass than does an equivalently heavy ICE, because they can recover 70% of that energy)

2) They have a large frontal area - their drag co-efficient might not be that bad (although it often is) but overal drag is the frontal area multipled by the co-efficient, so being large and tall they are draggy overall (and usually lots of room for air to blow around underneath causing yet more drag)

3) They run massive wheels and tyres - again, much more drag

4) They are often trying to be "sporty". Pretty much everything you do to make a car sporty is in direct opposition to that what you'd do to make a car a low consumer of energy. Wide, soft tyres, lots of camber and castor to get high lateral grip and good on-centre steering feel, big brake discs and calipers all add drag

5) People who buy big SUVs do so expecting to be comfortable. Hence cabin HVAC loads are high (lots of cabin to heat or cool, lots of glass area so a high solar load etc)

and an additional real world reason is

6) They tend to be driven much,much more aggressively than say a mid sized EV like a nissan leaf. Higher average speed, harder acceleration, more agressive use of throttle and regen, and sometime the brakes too!
Once again, thanks Max!

Sort of what I expected - I'd just not really considered that their mass could work for them so much in terms of regen. Battery over-heating being the main bugbear, if you go too mad.

Is that why most e-bikes appear not to have regen braking? Their lack of mass making it not worthwhile or potentially causing wheel lock-up? I'd presumed it was simply the additional cost...

(You can probably tell I'm fascinated by the engineering, hence enjoying your educational posts).

franco-v8

1 posts

28 months

Saturday 8th February
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Motorcycles are not included so for us multi-disciplined petrol heads there's still a glimmer of hope...….

lordturns

46 posts

141 months

Saturday 8th February
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Everyone should read this book 'The Sky Dragon Slayers' as we are all being hoodwinked about climate change and transport is an easy, soft target. We should focus on stopping the destruction of the planet with reference to palm oil deforestation, plastics pollution etc. There is strong evidence to suggest that global livestock farming causes more pollution than the entire worlds transport system put together.

See below for a brief synopsis of the book:

In any objective field of science, if a theory fails the predictive requirement, then that theory is discarded. But in climate research not everything is at is appears. Exposed is the greenhouse gas chimera—mythical sky dragon. The world has witnessed a frenzy of unverifiable claims that human emissions of a trace gas—carbon dioxide—are causing unprecedented global warming. Despite the relentless rise of levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), global temperatures refuse to show any statistically meaningful rise.

The Sky Dragon Slayers: Victory Lap reveals in forensic detail how the evidence relied upon by policymakers and environmentalists to swell alarm is mostly untrustworthy and bungled secret science manufactured by a clique of well-funded government researchers. Long-held assumptions are depicted as fact, while unknowns and uncertainties, which should have been declared, are unethically cloaked in a veneer of confident predictions of impending doom and gloom.

Herein, unpicking this dilemma is a stellar team of authors and researchers—the Slayers of sky dragons. among them are some of the world’s foremost scientists. They include Dr. Tim Ball, the internationally renowned climatologist; Dr. Pierre R. Latour, a world-leading expert on carbon dioxide recently honored with a lifetime achievement award in science and Dr. George V. Chilingar, among the world’s most decorated applied scientists who served the United Nations with distinction as science adviser.

Imagine a world with no more V8s....

Black S2K

1,030 posts

204 months

Saturday 8th February
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lordturns said:
Everyone should read this book 'The Sky Dragon Slayers' as we are all being hoodwinked about climate change and transport is an easy, soft target. We should focus on stopping the destruction of the planet with reference to palm oil deforestation, plastics pollution etc. There is strong evidence to suggest that global livestock farming causes more pollution than the entire worlds transport system put together.

See below for a brief synopsis of the book:

In any objective field of science, if a theory fails the predictive requirement, then that theory is discarded. But in climate research not everything is at is appears. Exposed is the greenhouse gas chimera—mythical sky dragon. The world has witnessed a frenzy of unverifiable claims that human emissions of a trace gas—carbon dioxide—are causing unprecedented global warming. Despite the relentless rise of levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), global temperatures refuse to show any statistically meaningful rise.

The Sky Dragon Slayers: Victory Lap reveals in forensic detail how the evidence relied upon by policymakers and environmentalists to swell alarm is mostly untrustworthy and bungled secret science manufactured by a clique of well-funded government researchers. Long-held assumptions are depicted as fact, while unknowns and uncertainties, which should have been declared, are unethically cloaked in a veneer of confident predictions of impending doom and gloom.

Herein, unpicking this dilemma is a stellar team of authors and researchers—the Slayers of sky dragons. among them are some of the world’s foremost scientists. They include Dr. Tim Ball, the internationally renowned climatologist; Dr. Pierre R. Latour, a world-leading expert on carbon dioxide recently honored with a lifetime achievement award in science and Dr. George V. Chilingar, among the world’s most decorated applied scientists who served the United Nations with distinction as science adviser.

Imagine a world with no more V8s....
CO^2 alarmism may be more akin to a religion and therefore cannot be defeated by scientific evidence to the contrary. Even Michael Mann's case against Tim Ball being dismissed (rightly or wrongly) was simply not reported in the media.

It's therefore a fair point you make, yet irrelevant; we are where we are - and that's in effect electrification by force.

If that in itself leads to increases in energy efficiency and less-polluted cities, it's not a bad thing. It will have other downsides, of course.






Edited by Black S2K on Saturday 8th February 14:02

MondialGirl

2 posts

36 months

Saturday 8th February
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So what will happen to Motorsport?
What about Track Days?
Will these become more, or less, of a thing?
Thoughts anyone?

otolith

41,368 posts

159 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
Black S2K said:
CO^2 alarmism may be more akin to a religion and therefore cannot be defeated by scientific evidence to the contrary. Even Michael Mann's case against Tim Ball being dismissed (rightly or wrongly) was simply not reported in the media.
Was that the case where Ball’s lack of credibility was used as a defence against libel on the grounds that nobody could take him seriously?


otolith

41,368 posts

159 months

Saturday 8th February
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RemarkLima

853 posts

167 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
MondialGirl said:
So what will happen to Motorsport?
What about Track Days?
Will these become more, or less, of a thing?
Thoughts anyone?
I no longer ride a horse to work, however I can still ride a horse on roads, or in woods, beaches or anywhere else I could have ridden a horse before.

I can still race a horse, or take part in horse trials.

I could therefore still do anything in my current car at that point in the future. We, as a nation, tend to only apply new rules and laws to thing past that point in time, hence a huge amount of grandfathered rights and ancient laws.

As another said, but a classic now and you can still drive it, pay no road tax, have no MOT - just most people CBA'd

rick.e

759 posts

226 months

Saturday 8th February
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HertsBiker said:
rick.e said:
As has been said several times, this is not a problem. We currently have 65GW worth of generation capacity, needed to cope with peak demand. Our average demand is only 35GW. So when smart grid is implemented (the intelligent scheduling of demand to even out peaks and troughs), we have enough generation capacity to run 70M electric cars at average 7000 miles per year. We currently oy have 30M cars, so plenty of capacity. (In simple terms, smart grid gives you the choice between running an appliance immediately, or having it monitor the grid and switch on in times of low demand at a preferential tariff. Your non urgent charging, or dishwashing, can be done at 4am)
I believe you are incorrect. I googled peak UK output, the number of vehicles we have, average milage, and if my sums are correct... we have a deficit of 65tWh if we all did 7900 miles a year at 4 miles per kWh.
But respectfully, I may be wrong. I hope I am, bit if I'm not, we are in deep st.
And I believe you should have checked your numbers before telling me I am wrong!

So from your numbers:
Each car does 7900 miles @ 4 miles per kWhr.
So each car needs 2000kwhr per year, which is 2Mwhr.
1m cars therefore need 2Twhr per year.
30M cars (as currently registered) will need 60 Twhr.
Yet you say we will be short by this same amount, therefore you have ignored the excess generating capacity, largely overnight, which was the whole point of my post.

Not sure what you mean by "googled Peak UK output", but if you are talking about total electricity generated, then this is always matched to demand, with excess capacity being turned off. (You can't generate electricity if it has nowhere to go). So if you are comparing current demand with current supply and looking for an excess, there isn't any, and can't be. You need to compare current demand with total generating capacity.

Edited by rick.e on Saturday 8th February 21:59


Edited by rick.e on Sunday 9th February 07:47


Edited by rick.e on Sunday 9th February 08:05

Catatafish

1,042 posts

100 months

Saturday 8th February
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kiseca said:
Hopefully hydrogen reliant aircraft work out rather better this time around than last.
Like this?

Hydrogen fuel cell four-seater passenger plane takes to the air



321boost

800 posts

25 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
RemarkLima said:
MondialGirl said:
So what will happen to Motorsport?
What about Track Days?
Will these become more, or less, of a thing?
Thoughts anyone?
I no longer ride a horse to work, however I can still ride a horse on roads, or in woods, beaches or anywhere else I could have ridden a horse before.

I can still race a horse, or take part in horse trials.

I could therefore still do anything in my current car at that point in the future. We, as a nation, tend to only apply new rules and laws to thing past that point in time, hence a huge amount of grandfathered rights and ancient laws.

As another said, but a classic now and you can still drive it, pay no road tax, have no MOT - just most people CBA'd
This kind of argument comes up a lot. It doesn’t matter if you can still ride a horse. Riding a horse is different, it does not attract excessive taxation and/or limited use of places which were once normal for horses.
If your car gets heavily taxed like Norway, Netherlands, Singapore then yes you can still buy and use a car but it’s out of reach of most normal people which is where the fear comes from and this is what you fail to understand. On top of that your future “classic” car might be restricted from entering areas, these areas might be large or small.

The fear isn’t having to pay more for your future classic, the fear is if the tax on your future classic is 100% of the value of it on the used market + tax for road use. Therefore this is essentially equivalent of a a ban on ICE I.e not comparable to a horse.

Black S2K

1,030 posts

204 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
otolith said:
Was that the case where Ball’s lack of credibility was used as a defence against libel on the grounds that nobody could take him seriously?
It seems to be based on a quip based on Penn State and State Pen...

Anyway, none of the hockey stick evidence was proffered in response to the defence and so it was thrown out in August.

Which seems to play into the hands of the sceptics somewhat...

RemarkLima

853 posts

167 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
321boost said:
RemarkLima said:
MondialGirl said:
So what will happen to Motorsport?
What about Track Days?
Will these become more, or less, of a thing?
Thoughts anyone?
I no longer ride a horse to work, however I can still ride a horse on roads, or in woods, beaches or anywhere else I could have ridden a horse before.

I can still race a horse, or take part in horse trials.

I could therefore still do anything in my current car at that point in the future. We, as a nation, tend to only apply new rules and laws to thing past that point in time, hence a huge amount of grandfathered rights and ancient laws.

As another said, but a classic now and you can still drive it, pay no road tax, have no MOT - just most people CBA'd
This kind of argument comes up a lot. It doesn’t matter if you can still ride a horse. Riding a horse is different, it does not attract excessive taxation and/or limited use of places which were once normal for horses.
If your car gets heavily taxed like Norway, Netherlands, Singapore then yes you can still buy and use a car but it’s out of reach of most normal people which is where the fear comes from and this is what you fail to understand. On top of that your future “classic” car might be restricted from entering areas, these areas might be large or small.

The fear isn’t having to pay more for your future classic, the fear is if the tax on your future classic is 100% of the value of it on the used market + tax for road use. Therefore this is essentially equivalent of a a ban on ICE I.e not comparable to a horse.
Are you suggesting that the ownership of a horse is cheap and accessible to the man on the Clapham omnibus?

It's a niche hobby for those who have enough disposable income to have stables, land and money to buy, feed and keep in good health a very large beast... Before you get into trailers, horse boxes, farriers, vet bills and the rest.

Or its something that you hire for a specific occasion.

However, those who love horses will happily pay for the space, fees and all associated costs if it means they can do what they love. The land costs alone will far outweigh any taxation issues with a car, and those will have an increasing pressure to be redeveloped!

It may be that you take your EV to a track to hire an ICE for the day of fun... Or you can trailer it. Just like a horse.

321boost

800 posts

25 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
RemarkLima said:
321boost said:
RemarkLima said:
MondialGirl said:
So what will happen to Motorsport?
What about Track Days?
Will these become more, or less, of a thing?
Thoughts anyone?
I no longer ride a horse to work, however I can still ride a horse on roads, or in woods, beaches or anywhere else I could have ridden a horse before.

I can still race a horse, or take part in horse trials.

I could therefore still do anything in my current car at that point in the future. We, as a nation, tend to only apply new rules and laws to thing past that point in time, hence a huge amount of grandfathered rights and ancient laws.

As another said, but a classic now and you can still drive it, pay no road tax, have no MOT - just most people CBA'd
This kind of argument comes up a lot. It doesn’t matter if you can still ride a horse. Riding a horse is different, it does not attract excessive taxation and/or limited use of places which were once normal for horses.
If your car gets heavily taxed like Norway, Netherlands, Singapore then yes you can still buy and use a car but it’s out of reach of most normal people which is where the fear comes from and this is what you fail to understand. On top of that your future “classic” car might be restricted from entering areas, these areas might be large or small.

The fear isn’t having to pay more for your future classic, the fear is if the tax on your future classic is 100% of the value of it on the used market + tax for road use. Therefore this is essentially equivalent of a a ban on ICE I.e not comparable to a horse.
Are you suggesting that the ownership of a horse is cheap and accessible to the man on the Clapham omnibus?

It's a niche hobby for those who have enough disposable income to have stables, land and money to buy, feed and keep in good health a very large beast... Before you get into trailers, horse boxes, farriers, vet bills and the rest.

Or its something that you hire for a specific occasion.

However, those who love horses will happily pay for the space, fees and all associated costs if it means they can do what they love. The land costs alone will far outweigh any taxation issues with a car, and those will have an increasing pressure to be redeveloped!

It may be that you take your EV to a track to hire an ICE for the day of fun... Or you can trailer it. Just like a horse.
So you’ve just basically proved my point regarding car taxation. Also why do you think just because you have EV you’ll be able to drive anyway? laugh

I’ll admit I don’t know much about owning a horse but the last table on this page gives a rough estimate:

https://equine-world.co.uk/info/buying-loaning-sel...

I’m guessing if you do things yourself you can expect to pay about £5,000 a year for the horse which is lower than what the car costs an average driver, now multiply the average cost of car ownership by about 10 hehe. It’s not a comparable thing.

Edited by 321boost on Saturday 8th February 21:08


Edited by 321boost on Saturday 8th February 21:17


Edited by 321boost on Saturday 8th February 21:19

RemarkLima

853 posts

167 months

Saturday 8th February
quotequote all
321boost said:
So you’ve just basically proved my point regarding car taxation. Also why do you think just because you have EV you’ll be able to drive anyway? laugh

I’ll admit I don’t know much about owning a horse but the last table on this page gives a rough estimate:

https://equine-world.co.uk/info/buying-loaning-sel...

I’m guessing if you do things yourself you can expect to pay about £5,000 a year for the horse which is lower than what the car costs an average driver, now multiply the average cost of car ownership by about 10 hehe. It’s not a comparable thing.

Edited by 321boost on Saturday 8th February 21:08


Edited by 321boost on Saturday 8th February 21:17


Edited by 321boost on Saturday 8th February 21:19
That's "running" a horse, it doesn't include the purchase nor any of the land required - the latter being meaningfully more than the car running costs.

The original question was about track days, and I think they'd be entirely comparable with equestrian activities.

TheOrangePeril

470 posts

135 months

Saturday 8th February
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321boost said:
TheOrangePeril said:
RenesisEvo said:
TheOrangePeril said:
As for cheap little runabouts, by 2035 there will be a hell of a lot of EVs on the second hand market. I see no reason why they would be drastically more expensive than the 15yr old cars people buy and run cheaply now.
The problem being a 15 year old ICE car has the same range (or sometimes, better, thanks to shrinking fuel tanks for WLTP) as a new one. Those used EVs will be fundamentally compromised - there's going to be a conundrum where a used BEV is flawless but also worthless because its battery is knackered so it has an unpalatable range, and the cost of changing the battery is more than various alternatives (e.g. buying a used ICE or hybrid, public transport for small distances, etc). What value do you place on a £100k-new Tesla that can now only do 30 miles? Replacement batteries will have to get a lot cheaper (difficult using rare materials of finite supply), otherwise a lot of early BEVs will become very shiny scrap. Look at mobile phones - how many are perfectly fine but get junked after 2 or 3 years because of the battery life. There's a very limited market for them - you buy new, you replace with new. The used market is tiny. EVs may go the same way - good news for manufacturers, bad news for the impoverished.


Edited by RenesisEvo on Tuesday 4th February 13:00
That's only because BEVs are currently a very limited part of the wider automotive ecosystem. Given the roll-out of new models over the next 15 years (not only anticipated but already started and incentivised by legislation) why would we not expect to have huge numbers of aftermarket specialists cheaply producing/replacing/rejuvenating batteries, as we have with IC-vehicle parts now?

The cost of batteries is also still tumbling at an exponential rate. By 2035 they will easily fall in the 'hundreds' rather than 'thousands' of pounds parts category.

The other beauty of batteries is that it's easy to assess condition. IC engines can fail seemingly at random, a battery you can plug in and find out the current state of degradation. It will lead to a more functional used market, in which a pricing heirarchy reflects range. The (highly unlikely) Tesla with 50 mile range will cost peanuts, while the Leaf with 150 mile range will be a little more. If anything it'll make used cars more affordable for many, and certainly more reliable/predictable in all cases.

I also think your predictions are off re: battery degradation anyway. Tesloop ran a Model X for 330000 miles, the range only dropped from 260 to 200 miles. Not many sheds rack up a third of a million... Even the bottom of the used BEV market will offer excellent VFM re: range. That's not even considering the huge advances in battery/cooling/charging tech since the Model X went on sale, let alone what is set to come over the next 15yrs as investment/R&D continue to increase.

Take a look at the pooled data for Teslas: https://qz.com/1325206/tesla-owners-battery-data-s...

They retain over 90% capacity after 155k miles. That's a solid used proposition. Even triple that loss would be a solid used proposition, especially considering that even the average business-related car journey (inc. commuting) is only around 12 miles.
Engines don’t just fail ‘randomly’. A random failure is very rare. There’s usually always a sign of failure. Only if you don’t know what you’re doing, you will make that mistake laugh
Do you really think that the majority of the used car buying market "know what they're doing" when checking a vehicle over? Even clued up enthusiasts have a significant chance of missing something. That's why there's always an element of chance when budgeting for a used car. Nobody whips out the wiring loom to inspect every inch when they're buying a £500 car from eBay. Nobody takes off the cam belt to stress test it. Nobody dismantles the clutch assembly to see how much actual wear there is. And no seller would allow you to do any of those things. Even if we're more diligent than most, we're still nowhere near being representative of said 'most', and it's 'most people' that essentially set the demand side of the used car price equation.

smartypants

44,764 posts

124 months

Sunday 9th February
quotequote all
Electrics is what kills modern cars, and the fact with all their crumple zones and fancy lights they are more expensive to repair in minor accidents. Cars do not have random engine failures. Yes the odd oil leak or coil pack failures but minor cheap inconveniences, not failure.

Those things will not change with EVs, and are more likely to be worse.

jamoor

12,090 posts

170 months

Sunday 9th February
quotequote all
smartypants said:
Electrics is what kills modern cars, and the fact with all their crumple zones and fancy lights they are more expensive to repair in minor accidents. Cars do not have random engine failures. Yes the odd oil leak or coil pack failures but minor cheap inconveniences, not failure.

Those things will not change with EVs, and are more likely to be worse.
Dpfs, turbochargers, auto transmissions, radiators, there’s a lot of ancillaries to break

Julian Thompson

1,512 posts

193 months

Sunday 9th February
quotequote all
At some point, someone is going to make very fast and exciting bare bones sports car with a small battery and it’s going to be brilliant. And then we will all start to get more excited. I suppose it should be someone like Caterham that does it, but it’ll be more likely Lotus.

If they can continue building Bikes with ICE then maybe there will be a weight exemption - I don’t know - 600kg and under - that lets them carry on. Or maybe they’ll just get chucked under the bus?

Black S2K

1,030 posts

204 months

Sunday 9th February
quotequote all
jamoor said:
smartypants said:
Electrics is what kills modern cars, and the fact with all their crumple zones and fancy lights they are more expensive to repair in minor accidents. Cars do not have random engine failures. Yes the odd oil leak or coil pack failures but minor cheap inconveniences, not failure.

Those things will not change with EVs, and are more likely to be worse.
Dpfs, turbochargers, auto transmissions, radiators, there’s a lot of ancillaries to break
As ICEs have become over-complicated, it is probably going to be a massive advantage for BEVs.

Your HMI will probably still keep falling over in both and BT will drop out, but there is essentially only one important controller in a box.