RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

Author
Discussion

M4cruiser

3,546 posts

149 months

Thursday 27th February 2020
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[redacted]

uncleluck

484 posts

50 months

Thursday 27th February 2020
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fblm said:
I really don't think battery life will be that much of an issue. The model 3 packs are apparently seeing about 2% degradation after 50,000 miles which is on course for an effective life between 3 and 500k miles... even then on a $30,000 car how much can a replacement battery cost, $10k?
People always use this argument about EV’s.

I don’t care if it’ll do 1 million miles in 5 years, my point was more about time and when people like me can currently get into a performance car. The time will kill them off, batteries get worse over time not just mileage.

My own cars are 17/18/20 years old and on their original power plants. One of my cars makes 50bhp more than it came from the factory with after 20 years.

The EV’s power plant is the battery and there’s not a chance in hell a tesla model 3 will be 20 years old with a stronger power plant than it left the factory with.

And the throw away comment about a $10k battery pack, who would want a 15 year old golf GTI if you knew it’d need a $10k engine in your ownership.

Yes, great if you can afford a £50k milk float (that looks like a 10 year old jag design) every 3 years but what about the rest of us that rely on buying our cars cash when they’re cheaper?

It’s a waste of time anyway, unless the whole world signs up to banning fossil fuel usage we’ll get nowhere. Population increase will far outpace the small amount of cars being off the road in years to come.

We need less people on the planet not a few electric cars being charged off of coal fired power stations.


anonymous-user

53 months

Thursday 27th February 2020
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uncleluck said:
...
My own cars are 17/18/20 years old and on their original power plants. One of my cars makes 50bhp more than it came from the factory with after 20 years. ...
Not sure I get your point. Likewise 4 of my cars are the same age and they have hundreds of bhp more than they did new. Care to estimate the amount that has been spent maintaining and upgrading those engines over 20 years? Considerably more than an a new battery I'll wager. Battery costs per kWh have dropped from $230 in 2016 to $100 and change! Tesla Model 3 battery is only about $6k today. In 20 years it'll be peanuts. You're focusing on a non issue.

Kolbenkopp

2,343 posts

150 months

Thursday 27th February 2020
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fblm said:
Considerably more than an a new battery I'll wager. Battery costs per kWh have dropped from $230 in 2016 to $100 and change! Tesla Model 3 battery is only about $6k today. In 20 years it'll be peanuts. You're focusing on a non issue.
The problem with this is the proprietary nature of EV batteries. You are at the mercy of the OEM to get that fixed currently, and they have 0 interest in keeping old cars going. It's likely going to get worse when the makers increase control over via over the air access to the car. See Tesla messing with ranges.

What an official replacement battery for a M3P will cost in 2030 is anyone's guess. This can and will be sorted, but needs a healthy after market that has access to tech documentation and software. Which will need legislators upping their game and likely take 15 years plus. Hopefully not more as that it is a time frame that would still work for consumers.

warch

2,941 posts

153 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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uncleluck said:
We need less people on the planet.
Are you volunteering to be one of them?

kiseca

9,339 posts

218 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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Kolbenkopp said:
fblm said:
Considerably more than an a new battery I'll wager. Battery costs per kWh have dropped from $230 in 2016 to $100 and change! Tesla Model 3 battery is only about $6k today. In 20 years it'll be peanuts. You're focusing on a non issue.
The problem with this is the proprietary nature of EV batteries. You are at the mercy of the OEM to get that fixed currently, and they have 0 interest in keeping old cars going. It's likely going to get worse when the makers increase control over via over the air access to the car. See Tesla messing with ranges.
Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see how this is a problem unique to EVs. Lots of cars get difficult to maintain when the manufacturers stop making replacement body parts, engine parts, ECUs, bits of trim, anything at all for them, and there are a lot more things in an ICE powered car that will break over time than in an EV. They get more expensive as demand for replacement parts exceeds supply. Or maybe that was your point. Do you mean the price drop for replacement batteries on old EVs is at the mercy of the OEMs?

Kolbenkopp

2,343 posts

150 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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kiseca said:
Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see how this is a problem unique to EVs. Lots of cars get difficult to maintain when the manufacturers stop making replacement body parts, engine parts, ECUs, bits of trim, anything at all for them, and there are a lot more things in an ICE powered car that will break over time than in an EV.
Think we mostly agree -- difference though that I failed to highlight: rebuilding an ICE car is mostly always possible. The procedures are well know by gazillions of workshops. Parts are available either direct or from donor cars. Making those components work together again (for more modern kit) is doable because the OEM coding has been mostly reverse-engineered or available from manufacturers as they have been forced (by legislation) to open up documentations and make coding equipment avaiable.

It's messy, potentially expensive -- but doable and there is an entire industry out there making a living from it.

Imagine the scenario with an EV in say 10 years time. Nothing should be really critical except the electronics and the battery.

The batteries are not normed. There is no common fix, every type of pack is different. How will the car react to a change in the pack? If tinkerers that can fix them at that level are even available by then and have the parts needed ("hey, I need an LG chem sub cell type 42. Yeah, the odd ones BMW used to stuff in i3s for 3 weeks back in Q2 2018"). Will there be official replacement packs available at a good price? I very much doubt it -- if the manufacturers aren't forced to provide them.

Next one is software. If the available features and general operability of a car can be controlled remotely by manufacturers, this gives them the power to work against 3rd parties trying to keep the things going for less. I don't think this has been sufficiently legislated so far. Applies to newer ICE stuff as well obviously.

Sorry for waffling on wink -- TLDR I think having a working "right to repair" is much further away for EVs than it is for ICE cars at the moment. IMO there will be a good amount of resistance, especially since there is so little to break on an EV. Car manufacturers (and economic policy makers) don't really want us to use your EV for the next 30 years.

Harry H

3,379 posts

155 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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Here's my electric car solution

All cars have standardised battery pack like a big cassette. You drive into a refuelling station and the machine swaps over batteries for you and off you go.

No longer a need for self charging
Car ownership for all without the need for off street parking
No concerns over charging times or range
Uses existing petrol stations subject to a big fk off cable to charge all the batteries.
Implementation time of a couple of years
No resale issue due to knackered batteries
Easily taxable just like fossil fuels

Why does the car user need to own the battery?
We don't all have our own oil refineries at home now.




Edited by Harry H on Friday 28th February 13:48

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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Kolbenkopp said:
...Will there be official replacement packs available at a good price? I very much doubt it -- if the manufacturers aren't forced to provide them.
...
If your otherwise perfectly serviceable EV is 'bricked' because the manufacturer won't supply a spare part then that's going to hit their new car sales hard; no different to a manufacturer pulling the same trick now. In any event model 3 battery life (80%+) is projected to be 300 to 500,000 miles... the door's will be hanging off it by then!

Equus

16,766 posts

100 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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VeeFource said:
There's a reason people pay £50 odd for their family to ride on a steam train. Despite outclassing a steam train I can't ever see that happening with one of these...

Last time I paid to ride on one of those, it cost me a fair bit more than £50 for the privilege, and that was just for me on my own.

Pvapour

8,981 posts

252 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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[redacted]

M4cruiser

3,546 posts

149 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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Harry H said:
Here's my electric car solution

All cars have standardised battery pack like a big cassette. You drive into a refuelling station and the machine swaps over batteries for you and off you go.

No longer a need for self charging
Car ownership for all without the need for off street parking
No concerns over charging times or range
Uses existing petrol stations subject to a big f --- cable to charge all the batteries.
Implementation time of a couple of years
No resale issue due to knackered batteries
Easily taxable just like fossil fuels

Why does the car user need to own the battery?
We don't all have our own oil refineries at home now.




Edited by Harry H on Friday 28th February 13:48
This has been tried and failed (in the UK anyway).
The Renault Fluence was designed with this system in mind, which is why no one wants them now - no Rapid charge, and the battery is in the boot but accessible from underneath.
I think the company building the network of charging stations went bust. There's your answer!


SpeckledJim

31,608 posts

252 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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M4cruiser said:
Harry H said:
Here's my electric car solution

All cars have standardised battery pack like a big cassette. You drive into a refuelling station and the machine swaps over batteries for you and off you go.

No longer a need for self charging
Car ownership for all without the need for off street parking
No concerns over charging times or range
Uses existing petrol stations subject to a big f --- cable to charge all the batteries.
Implementation time of a couple of years
No resale issue due to knackered batteries
Easily taxable just like fossil fuels

Why does the car user need to own the battery?
We don't all have our own oil refineries at home now.




Edited by Harry H on Friday 28th February 13:48
This has been tried and failed (in the UK anyway).
The Renault Fluence was designed with this system in mind, which is why no one wants them now - no Rapid charge, and the battery is in the boot but accessible from underneath.
I think the company building the network of charging stations went bust. There's your answer!
Fluence was a disaster, but the early days are usually a disaster.

Swappable batteries might still be a workable idea. But not yet. We need to do big batteries in every car first. Then swappable batteries will become sensible.

It’s not the next step. But it might be the step after that.

jamoor

14,506 posts

214 months

Friday 28th February 2020
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Harry H said:
Here's my electric car solution

All cars have standardised battery pack like a big cassette. You drive into a refuelling station and the machine swaps over batteries for you and off you go.

No longer a need for self charging
Car ownership for all without the need for off street parking
No concerns over charging times or range
Uses existing petrol stations subject to a big fk off cable to charge all the batteries.
Implementation time of a couple of years
No resale issue due to knackered batteries
Easily taxable just like fossil fuels

Why does the car user need to own the battery?
We don't all have our own oil refineries at home now.




Edited by Harry H on Friday 28th February 13:48
Batteries have a finite lifespan, would you swap the ones in your car with ones with 1,000 cycles?

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Saturday 29th February 2020
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Tesla did batteries swappable in minutes, it never took off.

As for the stuff about repair/reconditioning of batteries being problematic - there are already companies doing it for hybrids.

Kolbenkopp

2,343 posts

150 months

Saturday 29th February 2020
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fblm said:
If your otherwise perfectly serviceable EV is 'bricked' because the manufacturer won't supply a spare part then that's going to hit their new car sales hard; no different to a manufacturer pulling the same trick now. In any event model 3 battery life (80%+) is projected to be 300 to 500,000 miles... the door's will be hanging off it by then!
Looking at some of the really leggy model S cars out there that might actually work. I certainly don't have battery angst. Also agree manufacturers of EVs have no interest to overdo it with "encouraged obsolescence".

Problem though: I guess there will be loads of perfectly serviceable EVs around in 10+ years time that just need a battery or controller repair. There is not much else to go wrong that isn't easily fixed. The user can even totally neglect maintenance for years without causing catastrophic damage.

That's not good if your business is to sell new cars. That is why I doubt manufacturers will make it easy to fix the few things that can really brick an old EV.


VeeFource

1,076 posts

176 months

Saturday 29th February 2020
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Equus said:
VeeFource said:
There's a reason people pay £50 odd for their family to ride on a steam train. Despite outclassing a steam train I can't ever see that happening with one of these...

Last time I paid to ride on one of those, it cost me a fair bit more than £50 for the privilege, and that was just for me on my own.
I'm guessing you were using it to get somewhere rather than riding up and down the line for the fun of it?

kiseca

9,339 posts

218 months

Monday 2nd March 2020
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VeeFource said:
Equus said:
VeeFource said:
There's a reason people pay £50 odd for their family to ride on a steam train. Despite outclassing a steam train I can't ever see that happening with one of these...

Last time I paid to ride on one of those, it cost me a fair bit more than £50 for the privilege, and that was just for me on my own.
I'm guessing you were using it to get somewhere rather than riding up and down the line for the fun of it?
There are only a handful of steam trains left in operation today. Most people have never travelled on one, and it has an attraction of being a new, novelty or just unfamiliar experience.

Back when steam trains were normal, people just rode them to get where they're going, much like they do today, and the (then) new electric trains were the novelty everyone wanted to try. Just like prop driven airliners like the Constellation have a romantic aura around them nowadays - I'd love to experience a flight in one - they were noisy, vibrating beasts. Jet airliners were simply faster, much smoother, quieter, and a more pleasant experience. The only thing that changed that is cheap flights and high density passenger packaging.

If Virgin offered a regular steam train service alongside every electric service they currently run, same price, same accommodation, I'd say that the steam train would be far more popular with outside observers than with passengers, and tickets for the faster, quieter and less smelly electric option would outsell the steam engine by miles.

EVs are similar. An electric motor is much more suited to motivating a car than a petrol or diesel engine is. It's more reliable. It's more efficient. It's faster. It doesn't need gears. It hardly needs brakes. It's smaller and easier to package. It's the energy source - the batteries - that are less suited to a car than a tank of fuel - and part of that is familiarity and infrastructure, where fossil fuel is far more developed than battery charging.

Even EVO said it on their review of the Tesla 3. It's still fun, just fun in different ways. This whole idea that as soon as you put an electric motor and battery in a car it has to be as dull as a milkfloat is just closed-minded nonsense.

Harry H

3,379 posts

155 months

Monday 2nd March 2020
quotequote all
jamoor said:
Harry H said:
Here's my electric car solution

All cars have standardised battery pack like a big cassette. You drive into a refuelling station and the machine swaps over batteries for you and off you go.

No longer a need for self charging
Car ownership for all without the need for off street parking
No concerns over charging times or range
Uses existing petrol stations subject to a big fk off cable to charge all the batteries.
Implementation time of a couple of years
No resale issue due to knackered batteries
Easily taxable just like fossil fuels

Why does the car user need to own the battery?
We don't all have our own oil refineries at home now.




Edited by Harry H on Friday 28th February 13:48
Batteries have a finite lifespan, would you swap the ones in your car with ones with 1,000 cycles?
Why would I care what the condition of the battery is as I'd be swapping it for another one 150 miles later. It wouldn't be "my battery" just "a battery"

M4cruiser

3,546 posts

149 months

Monday 2nd March 2020
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Harry H said:
Why would I care what the condition of the battery is as I'd be swapping it for another one 150 miles later. It wouldn't be "my battery" just "a battery"
Yes, that's the whole point of the "swappage" scheme - the battery has to be leased.
... and that's the problem, in the UK anyway, most buyers want one deal for the whole car, particularly when it comes to second hand ones, and they want to own the battery, either from the start of their used-car-ownership, or at the end of their HP deal.