RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

RE: All good things come to an end in 2035

Author
Discussion

smartypants

44,048 posts

122 months

Wednesday 26th February
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And self tying shoes!

(doubt I'll be able to touch my toes by then, so could be useful) smile

Scootersp

1,335 posts

141 months

Wednesday 26th February
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smartypants said:
I'll be 55. Probably peak wealth and all I have to choose from is an array of wheeled fridges.

Just hope those flying cars and hover boards arrive by then.
You'll potentially have a large pool of 15-25year old cars to choose from perhaps there will even be a mini crash and there will be loads of affordable stuff?

smartypants

44,048 posts

122 months

Wednesday 26th February
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Scootersp said:
You'll potentially have a large pool of 15-25year old cars to choose from perhaps there will even be a mini crash and there will be loads of affordable stuff?
Might not even be that old... but I can imagine some sort of scrappage scheme coming into place again, which will simply bump up the used market price for anyone wanting a decent example.

cerb4.5lee

14,719 posts

133 months

Wednesday 26th February
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smartypants said:
Might not even be that old... but I can imagine some sort of scrappage scheme coming into place again, which will simply bump up the used market price for anyone wanting a decent example.
At the time I never considered or appreciated how detrimental the last scrappage scheme would be. Being a fan of older stuff it really did get rid of some decent old cars...plus it had a big impact on the values of the ones that did survive as you mention.

smartypants

44,048 posts

122 months

Wednesday 26th February
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cerb4.5lee said:
At the time I never considered or appreciated how detrimental the last scrappage scheme would be. Being a fan of older stuff it really did get rid of some decent old cars...plus it had a big impact on the values of the ones that did survive as you mention.
It was an horrendous and badly thought out idea. I sort of benefitted from it as bought a MK5 Golf GTI and then the scrappage scheme came in and in a year I almost "made" £3k on it when I sold it. However it also pushed the price up considerably of decent snotters that I needed to go alongside the TVR I had purchased. So ended up paying nearly £3k for a 12 year old high mileage VW Bora. Which was excellent to be honest, but it was never a £3k car.

Government getting involved in market forces again = higher prices for everyone.

fatbutt

1,753 posts

217 months

Wednesday 26th February
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I'm a petrol-head through and through, always have been, yet I've surprised myself how much i'm actually looking forward to the shift to electric cars. I've had a V8 of some form on my drive for the last 20 years, usually more than one; but the one I have now will be my last.

I'm starting to view ICE cars as something akin to steam engines. Some are marvels of engineering and beautiful to behold but they're outclassed by what's coming next.

fblm

17,698 posts

216 months

Wednesday 26th February
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fatbutt said:
I'm a petrol-head through and through, always have been, yet I've surprised myself how much i'm actually looking forward to the shift to electric cars. I've had a V8 of some form on my drive for the last 20 years, usually more than one; but the one I have now will be my last.

I'm starting to view ICE cars as something akin to steam engines. Some are marvels of engineering and beautiful to behold but they're outclassed by what's coming next.
Cars from the 90's are outclassed by new cars, it doesn't make them less fun to drive, or less desirable to own.

VeeFource

1,000 posts

130 months

Wednesday 26th February
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fatbutt said:
I'm a petrol-head through and through, always have been, yet I've surprised myself how much i'm actually looking forward to the shift to electric cars. I've had a V8 of some form on my drive for the last 20 years, usually more than one; but the one I have now will be my last.

I'm starting to view ICE cars as something akin to steam engines. Some are marvels of engineering and beautiful to behold but they're outclassed by what's coming next.
There's a reason people pay £50 odd for their family to ride on a steam train. Despite outclassing a steam train I can't ever see that happening with one of these...


321boost

800 posts

23 months

Thursday 27th February
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smartypants said:
cerb4.5lee said:
At the time I never considered or appreciated how detrimental the last scrappage scheme would be. Being a fan of older stuff it really did get rid of some decent old cars...plus it had a big impact on the values of the ones that did survive as you mention.
It was an horrendous and badly thought out idea. I sort of benefitted from it as bought a MK5 Golf GTI and then the scrappage scheme came in and in a year I almost "made" £3k on it when I sold it. However it also pushed the price up considerably of decent snotters that I needed to go alongside the TVR I had purchased. So ended up paying nearly £3k for a 12 year old high mileage VW Bora. Which was excellent to be honest, but it was never a £3k car.

Government getting involved in market forces again = higher prices for everyone.
Which scrappage scheme are you guys talking about?

smartypants

44,048 posts

122 months

Thursday 27th February
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321boost said:
Which scrappage scheme are you guys talking about?
2009 scrappage scheme.

M4cruiser

2,029 posts

103 months

Thursday 27th February
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smartypants said:
321boost said:
Which scrappage scheme are you guys talking about?
2009 scrappage scheme.
One of my current cars qualified for that scheme; the Government wanted to give me £2,000 for it, provided I paid another £6,000 to buy a Hyundai i10 like everyone else was doing! redface

I didn't do it, and the car in question is still one of my daily drivers today. Still worth not a lot.

uncleluck

367 posts

4 months

Thursday 27th February
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fblm said:
I really don't think battery life will be that much of an issue. The model 3 packs are apparently seeing about 2% degradation after 50,000 miles which is on course for an effective life between 3 and 500k miles... even then on a $30,000 car how much can a replacement battery cost, $10k?
People always use this argument about EV’s.

I don’t care if it’ll do 1 million miles in 5 years, my point was more about time and when people like me can currently get into a performance car. The time will kill them off, batteries get worse over time not just mileage.

My own cars are 17/18/20 years old and on their original power plants. One of my cars makes 50bhp more than it came from the factory with after 20 years.

The EV’s power plant is the battery and there’s not a chance in hell a tesla model 3 will be 20 years old with a stronger power plant than it left the factory with.

And the throw away comment about a $10k battery pack, who would want a 15 year old golf GTI if you knew it’d need a $10k engine in your ownership.

Yes, great if you can afford a £50k milk float (that looks like a 10 year old jag design) every 3 years but what about the rest of us that rely on buying our cars cash when they’re cheaper?

It’s a waste of time anyway, unless the whole world signs up to banning fossil fuel usage we’ll get nowhere. Population increase will far outpace the small amount of cars being off the road in years to come.

We need less people on the planet not a few electric cars being charged off of coal fired power stations.


fblm

17,698 posts

216 months

Thursday 27th February
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uncleluck said:
...
My own cars are 17/18/20 years old and on their original power plants. One of my cars makes 50bhp more than it came from the factory with after 20 years. ...
Not sure I get your point. Likewise 4 of my cars are the same age and they have hundreds of bhp more than they did new. Care to estimate the amount that has been spent maintaining and upgrading those engines over 20 years? Considerably more than an a new battery I'll wager. Battery costs per kWh have dropped from $230 in 2016 to $100 and change! Tesla Model 3 battery is only about $6k today. In 20 years it'll be peanuts. You're focusing on a non issue.

Kolbenkopp

2,222 posts

104 months

Thursday 27th February
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fblm said:
Considerably more than an a new battery I'll wager. Battery costs per kWh have dropped from $230 in 2016 to $100 and change! Tesla Model 3 battery is only about $6k today. In 20 years it'll be peanuts. You're focusing on a non issue.
The problem with this is the proprietary nature of EV batteries. You are at the mercy of the OEM to get that fixed currently, and they have 0 interest in keeping old cars going. It's likely going to get worse when the makers increase control over via over the air access to the car. See Tesla messing with ranges.

What an official replacement battery for a M3P will cost in 2030 is anyone's guess. This can and will be sorted, but needs a healthy after market that has access to tech documentation and software. Which will need legislators upping their game and likely take 15 years plus. Hopefully not more as that it is a time frame that would still work for consumers.

warch

2,152 posts

107 months

Friday 28th February
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uncleluck said:
We need less people on the planet.
Are you volunteering to be one of them?

kiseca

7,972 posts

172 months

Friday 28th February
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Kolbenkopp said:
fblm said:
Considerably more than an a new battery I'll wager. Battery costs per kWh have dropped from $230 in 2016 to $100 and change! Tesla Model 3 battery is only about $6k today. In 20 years it'll be peanuts. You're focusing on a non issue.
The problem with this is the proprietary nature of EV batteries. You are at the mercy of the OEM to get that fixed currently, and they have 0 interest in keeping old cars going. It's likely going to get worse when the makers increase control over via over the air access to the car. See Tesla messing with ranges.
Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see how this is a problem unique to EVs. Lots of cars get difficult to maintain when the manufacturers stop making replacement body parts, engine parts, ECUs, bits of trim, anything at all for them, and there are a lot more things in an ICE powered car that will break over time than in an EV. They get more expensive as demand for replacement parts exceeds supply. Or maybe that was your point. Do you mean the price drop for replacement batteries on old EVs is at the mercy of the OEMs?

Kolbenkopp

2,222 posts

104 months

Friday 28th February
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kiseca said:
Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see how this is a problem unique to EVs. Lots of cars get difficult to maintain when the manufacturers stop making replacement body parts, engine parts, ECUs, bits of trim, anything at all for them, and there are a lot more things in an ICE powered car that will break over time than in an EV.
Think we mostly agree -- difference though that I failed to highlight: rebuilding an ICE car is mostly always possible. The procedures are well know by gazillions of workshops. Parts are available either direct or from donor cars. Making those components work together again (for more modern kit) is doable because the OEM coding has been mostly reverse-engineered or available from manufacturers as they have been forced (by legislation) to open up documentations and make coding equipment avaiable.

It's messy, potentially expensive -- but doable and there is an entire industry out there making a living from it.

Imagine the scenario with an EV in say 10 years time. Nothing should be really critical except the electronics and the battery.

The batteries are not normed. There is no common fix, every type of pack is different. How will the car react to a change in the pack? If tinkerers that can fix them at that level are even available by then and have the parts needed ("hey, I need an LG chem sub cell type 42. Yeah, the odd ones BMW used to stuff in i3s for 3 weeks back in Q2 2018"). Will there be official replacement packs available at a good price? I very much doubt it -- if the manufacturers aren't forced to provide them.

Next one is software. If the available features and general operability of a car can be controlled remotely by manufacturers, this gives them the power to work against 3rd parties trying to keep the things going for less. I don't think this has been sufficiently legislated so far. Applies to newer ICE stuff as well obviously.

Sorry for waffling on wink -- TLDR I think having a working "right to repair" is much further away for EVs than it is for ICE cars at the moment. IMO there will be a good amount of resistance, especially since there is so little to break on an EV. Car manufacturers (and economic policy makers) don't really want us to use your EV for the next 30 years.

Harry H

1,741 posts

109 months

Friday 28th February
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Here's my electric car solution

All cars have standardised battery pack like a big cassette. You drive into a refuelling station and the machine swaps over batteries for you and off you go.

No longer a need for self charging
Car ownership for all without the need for off street parking
No concerns over charging times or range
Uses existing petrol stations subject to a big fk off cable to charge all the batteries.
Implementation time of a couple of years
No resale issue due to knackered batteries
Easily taxable just like fossil fuels

Why does the car user need to own the battery?
We don't all have our own oil refineries at home now.




Edited by Harry H on Friday 28th February 13:48

fblm

17,698 posts

216 months

Friday 28th February
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Kolbenkopp said:
...Will there be official replacement packs available at a good price? I very much doubt it -- if the manufacturers aren't forced to provide them.
...
If your otherwise perfectly serviceable EV is 'bricked' because the manufacturer won't supply a spare part then that's going to hit their new car sales hard; no different to a manufacturer pulling the same trick now. In any event model 3 battery life (80%+) is projected to be 300 to 500,000 miles... the door's will be hanging off it by then!

Equus

8,230 posts

54 months

Friday 28th February
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VeeFource said:
There's a reason people pay £50 odd for their family to ride on a steam train. Despite outclassing a steam train I can't ever see that happening with one of these...

Last time I paid to ride on one of those, it cost me a fair bit more than £50 for the privilege, and that was just for me on my own.