Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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Discussion

ChevronB19

1,598 posts

118 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
I always thought the phrase was something along the lines of ‘one pay cheque away from anarchy’ (or something like that) which is a bit more worrying than multiple bankruptcies.

CRA1G

4,223 posts

150 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
A few M3 E46's values have changed on the Autotrader price indicator and have increased in value in the last few days...?

gizlaroc

14,946 posts

179 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
CRA1G said:
A few M3 E46's values have changed on the Autotrader price indicator and have increased in value in the last few days...?
Autotrader prices work on the average of prices currently advertised don't they?

So if all the private sellers pull off the platform the average prices will go up a fair bit?

Numpty with honours

39 posts

38 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
fridaypassion said:
Good old PH

Always divides up into the following:

Know it all types that look down their noses at the peasants who have to use something so common as finance to buy a car - 99% of the time these are just people that inherited wealth and would be stacking shelves if daddy or granddady didn't bankroll them.

People that like to buy things using finance within their means (most normal people)

People that would like to buy a nice car but have to wait for their personal situation to improve before pressing the button

People that could afford to buy a nice car but run round in a stter perhaps not realising that one day you are dead and although its nice to own everything and now owe the bank anything we all ultimately rent everything in this life

Short answer - Let's just wait and see and stop being horrible to eachother.
I prefer to contract hire /pcp cars as I can invest at a higher rate than the APR on these deals . It is also a reminder as to what a car costs you to own, paying cash you still need to put back that capital into the reserves you have expended to buy it.

There may also be an advantage if the car is riddled with faults as you have redress against the finance company if the dealer fails to remedy the problem

Also if a car depreciates very badly that is a risk the finance company carries

However if you run into financial difficulties it is of course more stressful if the car is on finance and you dont have the rescources to cover the payments




av185

11,262 posts

82 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
So said:
Plate spinner said:
R.Sole said:
av185 said:
Antj said:
there's already desperate sellers trying to flog on V8 M3's, some have gone down very quickly watch ebay.

I would expect lots of cheap metal.my only educated guess is as an Underwriter i get to go through peoples spending in fine detail, i've been saying for years that many people are just one paycheck from bankruptcy, what we are seeing now with Covid is exactly that, worse still many had no real sign of it where as usually when life is going tits up you have some warning, but this time it was sudden so impact will be worse.

Biggest losers will be people like JLR, finance payments to them are regularly 600-800 a month.......these people aren't earning 300k either, they are earning say 70k a year ( which don;t get me is a st load in my opinion) but they are credit up to the hilt, but looks bloody amazing having the latest RR velar on the drive.

Always said if we stopped the finance merry go round and everybody gave back what they owe or own there would be a massive shortfall. i think Covid will highlight this. all ok short term as most will go with the 3 month deferments, but once this starts to run out there will be a lot or repo'd finance cars.
E90 92 V8 M3s whilst a great package at the money would always take a hit when times got tough due to high running costs. To be expected tbh.

The one pay cheque from bankruptcy is very accurate and real too despite many in denial and a sad fact of todays debt junkies having been sold the dream scratchchin who will as you rightly say unfortunately feel the pain big time over the coming months.

Interesting and probably very accurate observations from the horses mouth so to speak.
I await the calls for data to back up such wild sweeping assumptions! wink
I’m looking forward to hoovering up the odd bargain in the aftermath.
Like the bloodthirsty renters prior to the last property market crash, who were going to "hoover up bargains". Except, when the crash came they were nowhere to be seen.
Haha this is so true.

Just like the Rolex etc thread/share tips thread et al lots of big talk but never any action from the armchair wannabes.

Remember the 991.1 GT3 thread back in 2014 when the cars went up to £180k dropped back to £130k at which point all the armchair punters said they would buy buy but their usual dithering meant they missed the boat and they went back up to £150k.

You couldn't make it up.

Edited by av185 on Tuesday 31st March 21:03

CRA1G

4,223 posts

150 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
gizlaroc said:
CRA1G said:
A few M3 E46's values have changed on the Autotrader price indicator and have increased in value in the last few days...?
Autotrader prices work on the average of prices currently advertised don't they?

So if all the private sellers pull off the platform the average prices will go up a fair bit?
But "all" private seller's havn't pulled off advertising...confused

jamoor

12,082 posts

170 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
av185 said:
So said:
Plate spinner said:
R.Sole said:
av185 said:
Antj said:
there's already desperate sellers trying to flog on V8 M3's, some have gone down very quickly watch ebay.

I would expect lots of cheap metal.my only educated guess is as an Underwriter i get to go through peoples spending in fine detail, i've been saying for years that many people are just one paycheck from bankruptcy, what we are seeing now with Covid is exactly that, worse still many had no real sign of it where as usually when life is going tits up you have some warning, but this time it was sudden so impact will be worse.

Biggest losers will be people like JLR, finance payments to them are regularly 600-800 a month.......these people aren't earning 300k either, they are earning say 70k a year ( which don;t get me is a st load in my opinion) but they are credit up to the hilt, but looks bloody amazing having the latest RR velar on the drive.

Always said if we stopped the finance merry go round and everybody gave back what they owe or own there would be a massive shortfall. i think Covid will highlight this. all ok short term as most will go with the 3 month deferments, but once this starts to run out there will be a lot or repo'd finance cars.
E90 92 V8 M3s whilst a great package at the money would always take a hit when times got tough due to high running costs. To be expected tbh.

The one pay cheque from bankruptcy is very accurate and real too despite many in denial and a sad fact of todays debt junkies having been sold the dream scratchchin who will as you rightly say unfortunately feel the pain big time over the coming months.

Interesting and probably very accurate observations from the horses mouth so to speak.
I await the calls for data to back up such wild sweeping assumptions! wink
I’m looking forward to hoovering up the odd bargain in the aftermath.
Like the bloodthirsty renters prior to the last property market crash, who were going to "hoover up bargains". Except, when the crash came they were nowhere to be seen.
Haha this is so true.

Just like the Rolex etc thread/share tips thread et al lots of big talk but never any action from the armchair wannabes.

Remember the 991.1 GT3 thread back in 2014 when the cars went up to £180k dropped back to £130k at which point all the armchair punters said they would buy buy but their usual dithering meant they missed the boat and they went back up to £150k.

You couldn't make it up.

Edited by av185 on Tuesday 31st March 21:03
I think they were scared what if they went to 110 and then back upto 120 hehe

av185

11,262 posts

82 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Numpty with honours said:
I prefer to contract hire /pcp cars as I can invest at a higher rate than the APR on these deals .
This is the line so often trotted out by pcpers to cover their backs.

Great news if you can but imo many do not beat the overall rate at all as previously discussed and many just fritter the saved capital away.

Out of interest what exactly did you invest in showing what rate of return?

Cheers.

Aaa.

3,709 posts

53 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
av185 said:
Aaa. said:
One of my mates is a new money multimillionaire, I don't know exact figure (he probably doesnt really either) but circa £15m-20m?? He sold the company he worked for for £600m.

His one and only car is a BMW 430i coupe (not even an M4) and I would imagine the average PHer would lump him in with with the 'PCP cant afford it' crowd clearly living well beyond his means.
Did he pcp it?
No, but I did find out that he financed it rather than outright purchase, which did surprise me.

So

18,368 posts

177 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Aaa. said:
av185 said:
Aaa. said:
One of my mates is a new money multimillionaire, I don't know exact figure (he probably doesnt really either) but circa £15m-20m?? He sold the company he worked for for £600m.

His one and only car is a BMW 430i coupe (not even an M4) and I would imagine the average PHer would lump him in with with the 'PCP cant afford it' crowd clearly living well beyond his means.
Did he pcp it?
No, but I did find out that he financed it rather than outright purchase, which did surprise me.
Why?

If you're getting finance for nearly free, or actually free, why would you tie up capital?


Justin Case

1,491 posts

89 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Is the cash v finance comparison a fair one to make. Finance can make a lot of sense on a new car that you change every two or three years, but not so much on a used one where interest rates tend to be higher. If there is a shortage of new cars as and when factories get into production will dealers start to cut their interest rates on used cars to try and make up the shortfall. My view - prices are unlikely to change much either way, as with new cars dealers will offer more incentives. Shoot it down if you wish smile

gizlaroc

14,946 posts

179 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
CRA1G said:
But "all" private seller's havn't pulled off advertising...confused
No, but the vast majority have.

There are often 100-150k on there, currently 30k.

So will skew the average price marker somewhat I would think, but not sure hence the ???? at the end.






gizlaroc

14,946 posts

179 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Justin Case said:
Is the cash v finance comparison a fair one to make. Finance can make a lot of sense on a new car that you change every two or three years, but not so much on a used one where interest rates tend to be higher. If there is a shortage of new cars as and when factories get into production will dealers start to cut their interest rates on used cars to try and make up the shortfall. My view - prices are unlikely to change much either way, as with new cars dealers will offer more incentives. Shoot it down if you wish smile
The mistake many make is using car dealer finance on used cars.

£25000
60 x £456
final payment £8000 at 11.9% apr

£25000
60 x £454
Owned outright at 3.5% apr.


Yet the PCP is sold on "But we guarantee your car will be worth £8000 at the end."
"No you don't! You guarantee I will have to pay you an extra £8000 at the end or walk away with nothing."

mstrbkr

7,441 posts

153 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Antj said:


Biggest losers will be people like JLR, finance payments to them are regularly 600-800 a month...
Wait, you think that people financing cars are paying the manufacturer directly?

CRA1G

4,223 posts

150 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
gizlaroc said:
CRA1G said:
But "all" private seller's havn't pulled off advertising...confused
No, but the vast majority have.

There are often 100-150k on there, currently 30k.

So will skew the average price marker somewhat I would think, but not sure hence the ???? at the end.
WOW... so from 100-150k E46 M3's there's only currently 30K now for sale...yikes selling quicker than Bog Rolls... better be quick then...

gizlaroc

14,946 posts

179 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
CRA1G said:
WOW... so from 100-150k E46 M3's there's only currently 30K now for sale...yikes selling quicker than Bog Rolls... better be quick then...
You know what I am saying.

Usually around 100-150k private cars being advertised privately on there.
Currently 32k.

No idea how many M3s are normally sold privately? Currenty showing 78 across all models.

I was asking if the below/above average price is skewed if there is a considerable drop in private sales, or do they not take them into account?





V8RX7

20,125 posts

218 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
ChevronB19 said:
I always thought the phrase was something along the lines of ‘one pay cheque away from anarchy’ (or something like that) .
Which is why I was surprised that people were stocking up on loo roll rather than bullets

(friend is a large ammo supplier, reported there was less demand)

visitinglondon

170 posts

144 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Numpty with honours said:
fridaypassion said:
Good old PH

Always divides up into the following:

Know it all types that look down their noses at the peasants who have to use something so common as finance to buy a car - 99% of the time these are just people that inherited wealth and would be stacking shelves if daddy or granddady didn't bankroll them.

People that like to buy things using finance within their means (most normal people)

People that would like to buy a nice car but have to wait for their personal situation to improve before pressing the button

People that could afford to buy a nice car but run round in a stter perhaps not realising that one day you are dead and although its nice to own everything and now owe the bank anything we all ultimately rent everything in this life

Short answer - Let's just wait and see and stop being horrible to eachother.
I prefer to contract hire /pcp cars as I can invest at a higher rate than the APR on these deals .
Of course you can, sunshine. How’s your mythical portfolio looking at the moment? Probably the same as before as you’re just another dreamer with no pension and no savings because you hire/PCP cars to impress your mates rather than putting some aside for a rainy day.

Guess what - this is the rainy day you should have provided for!!!


visitinglondon

170 posts

144 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
fridaypassion said:
Good old PH

Always divides up into the following:

Know it all types that look down their noses at the peasants who have to use something so common as finance to buy a car - 99% of the time these are just people that inherited wealth and would be stacking shelves if daddy or granddady didn't bankroll them.

People that like to buy things using finance within their means (most normal people)

People that would like to buy a nice car but have to wait for their personal situation to improve before pressing the button

People that could afford to buy a nice car but run round in a stter perhaps not realising that one day you are dead and although its nice to own everything and now owe the bank anything we all ultimately rent everything in this life

Short answer - Let's just wait and see and stop being horrible to eachother.
You forgot those who take out ruinous finance deals to impress their friends and neighbours, don’t actually have a pot to piss in and will be royally fked by this downturn.

Hopefully it will teach them some financial discipline going forward.

av185

11,262 posts

82 months

Tuesday 31st March
quotequote all
Custarding portfolio required.