Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[JulianHJ]

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

[Fezzaman]

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

It was mentioned here or some other thread. I can't say I buy in to that though. How is it any different to the credit rating agencies that stuck to their ratings? Or the banks that conveniently choose not to mark to market until they've got their own position on the right side of the trade?

I'd be willing to bet once all the players at said trade briefing have shifted their stock (most likely to some average Joe Public to not harm inter-trade relationships), the CAP/HPI pricing will suddenly change to suit them.

[ghost83]

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

It’s ok saying it will be frozen and no problem but in reality a lot of companies are going to go to the wall, a lot of people are going to be out of work, a car or supercar will not be a priority so sales will go down and therefore so will prices till they do sell, you will see car dealerships offering fantastic finance deals and discounts to get cars sold,

[crosseyedlion]

ghost83 said:

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

It’s ok saying it will be frozen and no problem but in reality a lot of companies are going to go to the wall, a lot of people are going to be out of work, a car or supercar will not be a priority so sales will go down and therefore so will prices till they do sell, you will see car dealerships offering fantastic finance deals and discounts to get cars sold,

Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.

[Sa Calobra]

crosseyedlion said:

Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.

Is anyone actually open to even sell at the moment or indie traders even to still be around in four months time?

[Earthdweller]

The first thing that will go is the fancy car .. and the last thing to come back

Anecdotally, I was having a chat with a friend last night, who has just been offered an M4 for what it owes the guy who has it .. he’s a small businessman and his entire cash flow has gone

It’s a fire sale to keep a roof over his head

I very much doubt he’s alone

[crosseyedlion]

Sa Calobra said:

crosseyedlion said:

Correct. Its completely dillusional to think this is a pause on activities and that values will fall slightly.

Cap is supposed to be market prices. And you just have to ask yourself, how much less would you pay for a car at the moment vs. A month ago?

Cap valuations have really shown they are manipulated to protect the industry and their subscribers. It makes you wonder at the level of market manipulation/collusion that occurs in normal times, it's clearly not an impartial valuation.

Is anyone actually open to even sell at the moment or indie traders even to still be around in four months time?

You can still buy and sell cars if you want. They have to be transported professionally.

[GT72]

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

Not a chance.

The reason prices are frozen at the moment and for the duration is that there's no market, they can't actually work out what the impact is. Which is fair enough, it will be the same as most industries. However, the concept it'll be back to normal once we're out is comical.

In my industry whilst lots of people are being furloughed, lots are being made redundant and lots are having company wide paycuts, which coupled the with lack of bonus next year will have a huge impact on peoples disposable income in the short term.

I've cancelled my order of a new car and am unlikely to resurrect that purchase for a few years, assuming I still have a job in 12 months.

[gizlaroc]

JulianHJ said:

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

Did they start with "Our fantasy scenario would be..........."


Because that is what it is.


I think reality has suddenly hit home to some of the main dealers with the news that over 30% of SMEs have said if this lasts 60 days or more they will not be there.
This is going to be apocalyptic for nearly everyone.

Mr Sunak's loans are non accessible, banks seem to be going for asset grabs, and estimates are starting to come in at 10-15,000,000 unemployed, that gap of tax intake plus the welfare needed will have to be paid for by those still in work.



Why did I say the main dealers are starting to realise things are going south fast?
Because someone I sell a few cars for called me 10 minutes ago to say one of the main dealers texted him yesterday to say that they are taking bids on all stock cars they have. Highest bid gets it, no reserve.

That to me tells me they are starting to get just how bad this could be.

[So]

gizlaroc said:

JulianHJ said:

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

Did they start with "Our fantasy scenario would be..........."


Because that is what it is.


I think reality has suddenly hit home to some of the main dealers with the news that over 30% of SMEs have said if this lasts 60 days or more they will not be there.
This is going to be apocalyptic for nearly everyone.

Mr Sunak's loans are non accessible, banks seem to be going for asset grabs, and estimates are starting to come in at 10-15,000,000 unemployed, that gap of tax intake plus the welfare needed will have to be paid for by those still in work.



Why did I say the main dealers are starting to realise things are going south fast?
Because someone I sell a few cars for called me 10 minutes ago to say one of the main dealers texted him yesterday to say that they are taking bids on all stock cars they have. Highest bid gets it, no reserve.

That to me tells me they are starting to get just how bad this could be.

Interesting stuff.

[vikingaero]

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

The market may be paused but there's going to be a huge adjustment when it restarts. Look on the VWFS thread and someone is saying that every other call Skoda FS are taking is about VTing cars. Even people who can afford it are realising that they have a car on the drive not being driven and they may as well VT and save hundreds each month.

[gizlaroc]

Could be the right thing to do, could be a big mistake.


The fact is no one knows what will happen.


The only thing we know is uncertainty, which no one likes regardless of outcome.

[Deep Thought]

vikingaero said:

JulianHJ said:

I’ve not read through this thread, so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.

I listened to a CAP HPI trade briefing earlier this week and their stance (IIRC) is basically a freeze on values for the duration of the lockdown. They don’t see a comparison with 2008 as this isn’t a credit issue. Emotional purchases such as supercars might decline slightly, but business will carry on.

This seems an entirely rational position to me - the market is merely paused (along with many non-automotive markets) for a number of weeks.

The market may be paused but there's going to be a huge adjustment when it restarts. Look on the VWFS thread and someone is saying that every other call Skoda FS are taking is about VTing cars. Even people who can afford it are realising that they have a car on the drive not being driven and they may as well VT and save hundreds each month.

Thats very interesting. I guess if people are paying several hundred a month for one or more car then VTing one in these uncertain times could make sense, particularly if they're within their rights to do so and have hit the 50% marker anyway.

I hear a lot of people are SORNing their cars too. Not an issue if your car is in the £30 a year bracket but if its £240 - £550 a year there may be some merit in it. Not, again, because they "need" the money necessarily, but if the car is otherwise not being used why not.

[Fezzaman]

https://www.classiccarauctions.co.uk/cca-march-202...

May be more pertinent to those looking for modern classics but worth checking. Some of the lots have been given buy now prices

[swisstoni]

The only hope I can see is that, if the current pretty hard lockdown is a success
(ie the ICU capacity is kept sufficient during the expected peak of the epidemic in the next couple of weeks, and death rates start to go down, AND new easily available testing allows us to see who’s had it, who’s got it, etc)

then restrictions can start to be lifted and some return to business can happen.

[classicaholic]

Not quite car related but similar, we have just sent a forklift back off hire yesterday and the driver collecting said he had picked 10 up already this week, normally less than 1 a week.

[V8fan]

Fezzaman said:

https://www.classiccarauctions.co.uk/cca-march-202...

May be more pertinent to those looking for modern classics but worth checking. Some of the lots have been given buy now prices

I was due to go to that auction (originally planned for Practical Classic show in NEC, then reverted to Leamington Spa) but it got turned into a 10 ish cars a day 12 hour bidding bizarre thing. No last minute sniping, any bid in the last 2 mins extends it another 2 mins.

The 'contact us' prices are for cars that failed to meet their reserve.

[gizlaroc]

classicaholic said:

Not quite car related but similar, we have just sent a forklift back off hire yesterday and the driver collecting said he had picked 10 up already this week, normally less than 1 a week.

This is what people are not understanding, it doesn't matter what industry you are in, every week this continues we will see people simply run out of money. Products get dumped onto the market, over saturation reduces prices.

[CRA1G]

V8fan said:

I was due to go to that auction (originally planned for Practical Classic show in NEC, then reverted to Leamington Spa) but it got turned into a 10 ish cars a day 12 hour bidding bizarre thing. No last minute sniping, any bid in the last 2 mins extends it another 2 mins.

The 'contact us' prices are for cars that failed to meet their reserve.

Suprised to see how many actually sold....

[Fezzaman]

gizlaroc said:

This is what people are not understanding, it doesn't matter what industry you are in, every week this continues we will see people simply run out of money. Products get dumped onto the market, over saturation reduces prices.

Ok so to 'follow the money' so to speak:
People may have started to VT financed cars (guessing the lease/finance companies will start taking care of the logistics behind this).

The outright cash owners looking to free up capital can't really sell as main dealers/WBAC have shut up shop and private sales are not feasible in the lockdown environment.

What happens/where do the VT'd/PCP hand back cars go? To auction? And who dares to place a bid in a market that is about to have increased supply (granted new cars aren't in production)?

Main dealers aren't going to buy used stock unnecessarily as their business model is primarily based on new cars and part exchanges that come in are incidental to that. Only circumstance under which main dealers start showing more interest in the used cars/nearly new VT'd PCP hand backs is if new car production is at 0 and they need stock to sell (this is a way off until: lockdown measures are lifted, they have shifted their existing stock on hand, they have an idea of customer demand and values for used/nearly new based on stock on hand depletion rate).

Which leaves independent dealers who buy/sell stock - they still have stock on hand to move on so will not be buying any of the increased supply that is potentially going to arrive in the market.

It makes sense that all dealers have(need) to shift stock on hand.... but who's buying right now?