Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
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nickfrog said:
Hi Mike, I can't speak for others but there is no insouciance at my end, that's in your head (which I am grateful for you letting me live in rent free).
There is a serious downturn already, it's not a prospect.
On the plus side, the FTSE is bouncing back nicely with quite a few funds already over their pre C19 peak so not too shabby all round.
The problem with the small minority who predict the worst is that they simply cant find or accept any positives and will only be happy when they find "evidence" that they are right - they'll never admit for example (ThroBo) that they got it wrong about what what we are seeing right now with car dealers and prices, but will keep throwing negatives and distractions in.

I'd like to see used car prices drop. I'd like to seem some cracking deals on new cars. But i dont want either of those if it means mass redundancies or businesses going under to achieve it.

maz8062

2,173 posts

214 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
quotequote all
The FT are reporting mass redundancies in the car industry:

https://www.ft.com/content/ef1bffd7-86f7-4c35-a2b8...

I guess they’re not sharing the optimism of some on here, but who knows what will happen wink

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
quotequote all
maz8062 said:
The FT are reporting mass redundancies in the car industry:

https://www.ft.com/content/ef1bffd7-86f7-4c35-a2b8...

I guess they’re not sharing the optimism of some on here, but who knows what will happen wink
I cant read it as its behind a paywall, but i guess they need to "prepare to" as the heading suggests.

Hopefully that doesnt pan out - though i can see the likes of Lookers having to shed quite a percentage of jobs to stay afloat given how weak they have been in recent years anyway.

And likewise, i think most of us are in agreement that theres pent up demand being fulfilled right now that wont continue to be the case by probably the end of the summer, which could easily equate to lost jobs.


lonny

411 posts

242 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
quotequote all
maz8062 said:
The FT are reporting mass redundancies in the car industry:

https://www.ft.com/content/ef1bffd7-86f7-4c35-a2b8...

I guess they’re not sharing the optimism of some on here, but who knows what will happen wink
Is he wearing that suit for a bet?

Auto810graphy

1,373 posts

91 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
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The Lookers situation is interesting, to be fair I could see they had cash flow issues two years back when they started taking stocking funding on cars they were sending to auction and in the case of one I purchased did not clear it until a few days after the sale.

The bigger picture is that if the unlikely happened and Lookers failed it would dent consumer confidence in buying a replacement car as there would be the worry that other dealers could fail and buyers don’t like uncertainty, especially with the amount of money involved.

jimPH

3,981 posts

79 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
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My inchcape stocks have done pretty well though.

nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
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Butter Face said:
Throttlebody said:
Wooda80 said:
@Throttlebody

You are correct in your assertion about bigger pictures and longer term. Whilst this thread is about used cars the new car market has a large bearing on the supply of used cars as old ones are part exchanged.

Would you care to share your expert insight and analysis to guess forecast where you expect June 20 registrations will be vs June 19?
You are correct about the link between the new and used car market. They are intrinsically interlaced.

With forecast June registrations, you be reactive proactive and let’s see if we agree.
Not a gambling man eh? Go on, stick your neck out, give us a %.
Surely a walk in the park for you and your crystal ball TB.

rallycross

12,747 posts

236 months

Saturday 6th June 2020
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Similar to 2008/2009 cheap good used stock has massively strengthened in
Price - limited retail stock means good User cars going up in value.

Zero supply of Trade ins due to 10 week lock down for main dealers
- trade now having to pay stong Money For new good stock.

As ever all the st Poor quality cars will find there way to all the scummy dealers Around BirminghamBradford Rochdale Leeds etc - never buy a used car from these areas.

Anonymous-poster

12,241 posts

205 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
Butter Face said:
Throttlebody said:
Wooda80 said:
@Throttlebody

You are correct in your assertion about bigger pictures and longer term. Whilst this thread is about used cars the new car market has a large bearing on the supply of used cars as old ones are part exchanged.

Would you care to share your expert insight and analysis to guess forecast where you expect June 20 registrations will be vs June 19?
You are correct about the link between the new and used car market. They are intrinsically interlaced.

With forecast June registrations, you be reactive proactive and let’s see if we agree.
Not a gambling man eh? Go on, stick your neck out, give us a %.
Surely a walk in the park for you and your crystal ball TB.
It will be dependant on the availability of new cars.Did all the cars that were sold for April and May delivery reach the dealers?

growlerowl

334 posts

48 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
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Deep Thought said:
The problem with the small minority who predict the worst is that they simply cant find or accept any positives and will only be happy when they find "evidence" that they are right - they'll never admit for example (ThroBo) that they got it wrong about what what we are seeing right now with car dealers and prices, but will keep throwing negatives and distractions in.

I'd like to see used car prices drop. I'd like to seem some cracking deals on new cars. But i dont want either of those if it means mass redundancies or businesses going under to achieve it.
I just can't square how a quarter's worth ish (at best) of deleted productivity across so many sectors cannot lead to big big economic problems, even in spite of whatever tricks they pull to try to fix it. Due to my situation I think I'll be OK personally either way it goes so no skin off my nose if I can't get my cheap V8, and I don't want to see friends and family getting burnt. But I suspect it's a bit premature to be crowing just yet. The real pain is still in the post.

growlerowl

334 posts

48 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
The problem with the small minority who predict the worst is that they simply cant find or accept any positives and will only be happy when they find "evidence" that they are right - they'll never admit for example (ThroBo) that they got it wrong about what what we are seeing right now with car dealers and prices, but will keep throwing negatives and distractions in.

I'd like to see used car prices drop. I'd like to seem some cracking deals on new cars. But i dont want either of those if it means mass redundancies or businesses going under to achieve it.
Also meant to say where I am (South coast) there's apparently plenty of pent-up demand for houses with no big drop off in demand, so with stuff like that it does seem that however this thing plays out it's going to be a weird one.

jimPH

3,981 posts

79 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
growlerowl said:
Deep Thought said:
The problem with the small minority who predict the worst is that they simply cant find or accept any positives and will only be happy when they find "evidence" that they are right - they'll never admit for example (ThroBo) that they got it wrong about what what we are seeing right now with car dealers and prices, but will keep throwing negatives and distractions in.

I'd like to see used car prices drop. I'd like to seem some cracking deals on new cars. But i dont want either of those if it means mass redundancies or businesses going under to achieve it.
I just can't square how a quarter's worth ish (at best) of deleted productivity across so many sectors cannot lead to big big economic problems, even in spite of whatever tricks they pull to try to fix it. Due to my situation I think I'll be OK personally either way it goes so no skin off my nose if I can't get my cheap V8, and I don't want to see friends and family getting burnt. But I suspect it's a bit premature to be crowing just yet. The real pain is still in the post.
But that seems to be the problem as far as I can tell. Everyone thinks it's going to happen to someone else and they'll benefit.

Personally, I've benefited so far, I got cheap stocks and an entry point into the market for my savings. A pay increase for working during the pandemic and no time off, so haven't spent much.

My sister saw orders drop off at her place as they supplied cut plastic for conferences and displays. All of a sudden they were inundated for orders for protective screens and guards, they didn't have the staff to cope with the upturn of orders.

Most of my mates have been able to get cheap loans which have massively reduced their overheads and saved money furloughing staff

Travel and tourism has certainly took a hit, but let's be honest, the British seaside this summer will be busier than ever if people don't go abroad.

mike74

3,687 posts

131 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
mike74 said:
nickfrog said:
Good to hear. It is all about spirit and attitude. Thankfully the terminally disgruntled living with their parents and hoping for the worst are in a minority.
Careful now, your veneer of breezy insouciance is in danger of looking a bit thin... it could give the impression that actually you're stting yourself at the prospect of an economic downturn along with some of the other contributers to this thread.
Hi Mike, I can't speak for others but there is no insouciance at my end, that's in your head (which I am grateful for you letting me live in rent free).
There is a serious downturn already, it's not a prospect.
On the plus side, the FTSE is bouncing back nicely with quite a few funds already over their pre C19 peak so not too shabby all round.
Not quite sure how I'm allowing you to live rent free? Unless you're living in my attic you cheeky little scamp.

I will rephrase it slightly and say you're giving the impression of another of those who are stting themselves at the prospect of the whole cheap money, cheap credit, debt fuelled asset price bubble that makes up our Potemkin economy coming to an end.

Although I don't think you've got anything to worry about, from what I can see the debt pushers, feckless debt junkies and asset prices are being well looked after and propped up as per usual.

Edited by mike74 on Sunday 7th June 07:28

nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
mike74 said:
I will rephrase it slightly and say you're giving the impression of another of those who are stting themselves at the prospect of the whole cheap money, cheap credit, debt fuelled asset price bubble that makes up our Potemkin economy coming to an end.

Although I don't think you've got anything to worry about, from what I can see the debt pushers, feckless debt junkies and asset prices are being well looked after and propped up as per usual.
Hi again Mike. I am flattered by your attention but I have no idea what would give you that impression. I have no debt nor have any skin in that game either. You give the impression of being extremely bitter though, so I am sorry to hear that.
Having said that you're partially and accidentally half right: I am slightly worried at the moment Mike (albeit not at the point of stting myself) : I am not sure I have enough front negative camber for the outside shoulders of my Trofeo Rs to survive. But I'll make sure to update you on that as soon as I have done my first post C19 track day next month.

fridaypassion

8,504 posts

227 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
So said:
Hi FP

My casual observation is that we are seeing pent up demand chasing too few cars. I too think it will soften, but not until after the summer. What do you think as a professional?
Same yes. Im knocking it out of the park at the moment and have actually been busy with projects and sales all through the pandemic so Autumn winter im getting geared up for a rest.

fridaypassion

8,504 posts

227 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
maz8062 said:
I don't understand the connection between the price a trader pays for a car and its potential impact on used car prices. There's supply-side and demand-side. I think it'll be the demand that will dictate the direction of prices.
I read this about 3 times and I'd I'm reading it right you don't think that the trade drives prices? Yes there is a big demand outstripping supply problem and right now the increased prices will filter through to the forecourt. There is competition within trade for stock pushing up prices.

Traders always come in for a bit of flack but to us the market can be going up or down we don't really care we just try to make our bit in the middle. Unfortunately that will sometimes involve putting prices up but nobody ever mentions when we are at the forefront of lower prices. I've had better than private prices all since March for sure. Prices arent yet going up in my sector as im not subject to auctions or much competition at the sourcing side.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

53 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
maz8062 said:
The FT are reporting mass redundancies in the car industry:

https://www.ft.com/content/ef1bffd7-86f7-4c35-a2b8...

I guess they’re not sharing the optimism of some on here, but who knows what will happen wink
There’s a wider and more relevant financial picture of the car market that is always worth visiting, even though it makes people feel uncomfortable.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

53 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
maz8062 said:
The FT are reporting mass redundancies in the car industry:

https://www.ft.com/content/ef1bffd7-86f7-4c35-a2b8...

I guess they’re not sharing the optimism of some on here, but who knows what will happen wink
I cant read it as its behind a paywall, but i guess they need to "prepare to" as the heading suggests.

Hopefully that doesnt pan out - though i can see the likes of Lookers having to shed quite a percentage of jobs to stay afloat given how weak they have been in recent years anyway.

And likewise, i think most of us are in agreement that theres pent up demand being fulfilled right now that wont continue to be the case by probably the end of the summer, which could easily equate to lost jobs.
Some elements of rationality there.

Certain aspects of the future economy you just can’t avoid, for example - The link between the unemployment rate and new car registrations is firmly established. Unemployment UP - new car registrations DOWN. This has been a well proven relationship in the EU for many years.


mike74

3,687 posts

131 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
Hi again Mike. I am flattered by your attention but I have no idea what would give you that impression. I have no debt nor have any skin in that game either. You give the impression of being extremely bitter though, so I am sorry to hear that.
Having said that you're partially and accidentally half right: I am slightly worried at the moment Mike (albeit not at the point of stting myself) : I am not sure I have enough front negative camber for the outside shoulders of my Trofeo Rs to survive. But I'll make sure to update you on that as soon as I have done my first post C19 track day next month.
Not quite sure why you feel I'm paying you particular attention? This is a discussion forum where we're all free to engage with each other, that's sort of the whole point of it.

It is you that gives me that impression... given that you seem to have a rather derogatory view of anyone who dares suggest that perhaps it would be no bad thing if the whole cheap money, cheap credit, debt fuelled asset price bubble was at least reigned back a little, describing anyone who holds that view as ''bitter'' ''terminally disgruntled'' and apparently all living in their mother's spare bedrooms.

(BTW you've still not explained your rather odd comment about how I'm allowing you to live rent free?)

nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Sunday 7th June 2020
quotequote all
mike74 said:
nickfrog said:
Hi again Mike. I am flattered by your attention but I have no idea what would give you that impression. I have no debt nor have any skin in that game either. You give the impression of being extremely bitter though, so I am sorry to hear that.
Having said that you're partially and accidentally half right: I am slightly worried at the moment Mike (albeit not at the point of stting myself) : I am not sure I have enough front negative camber for the outside shoulders of my Trofeo Rs to survive. But I'll make sure to update you on that as soon as I have done my first post C19 track day next month.
Not quite sure why you feel I'm paying you particular attention?

(...)

(BTW you've still not explained your rather odd comment about how I'm allowing you to live rent free?)
I wasn't sure tbh but now I know I live rent free in your head.

mike74 said:
you seem to have a rather derogatory view of anyone who dares suggest that perhaps it would be no bad thing if the whole cheap money, cheap credit, debt fuelled asset price bubble was at least reigned back a little, describing anyone who holds that view as ''bitter'' ''terminally disgruntled'' and apparently all living in their mother's spare bedrooms.
Just stating an opinion about a small minority here (as opposed to anyone), mainly TB. Happy to be proved wrong but you're not helping.

This is a discussion forum where we're all free to engage with each other, that's sort of the whole point of it. If you don't like my opinions Mike, why don't you ignore them and I'll do the same, deal ? That way I can move out.

Edited by nickfrog on Sunday 7th June 08:53

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