Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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Bemmer

1,103 posts

201 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?
As others have said Just ignore him.... he's clearly just a sad boring troll seeking attention...

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:

OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?
A 300% increase.
As a percentage unemployed.

A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.

So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43

anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
As a percentage unemployed.

A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.

So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
About 10%

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
jsf said:
Deep Thought said:
As a percentage unemployed.

A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.

So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
About 10%
Yes, I'm sure ThrottleBody, being a Social Media Trail Blazer has been far too busy to come back with the figure - or perhaps the percentage doesnt fit his narrative?

According to the ONS, there were 34.2 million people economically active in the UK in Feb 20 (the last figures they published).

If we take ThrottleBody's headline 3 million unemployed from the OBR forecast, then the unemployment rate would be 3 / 34.2 = 0.0877, which expressed as a percentage would 8.77%.

For comparison, during the last recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 8.5%.

Comment ThrottleBody..??

Have you given us a Good News story as this is much lower than you were previously predicting? smile

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 17:41

anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Auto810graphy said:
played golf with a couple of finance brokers yesterday afternoon
Did you win?

Justin Case

2,195 posts

133 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
3 million is a worst case scenario, OBR always give three scenarios, the best case is a little under two million, which is bad, but not nearly as bad an increase over the underlying rate. As for predicting what will happen in 2024, how many economic forecasters predicted 2009? Economics is not a precise science like physics, which AFAIK is why you don't get a B Sc in economics if you study it.

anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Unemployment numbers isnt the full picture, there will be large numbers of people earning much lower incomes than previously.

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
jsf said:
Unemployment numbers isnt the full picture, there will be large numbers of people earning much lower incomes than previously.
Yes. Initially some people may have to take a lower pay to get back in to employment and work their way back up.

Its unfortunate for those affected, but sadly it does happen.

I've had to do it in the past.

People can and do recover from it, and often then go on to be on more money over time.

Dwh8611

148 posts

51 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
jsf said:
Unemployment numbers isnt the full picture, there will be large numbers of people earning much lower incomes than previously.
Plus many that are too cautious to spend due to the uncertainty of their jobs hanging by a thread. Whereas the people with the most secure jobs like key workers who we really need to spend to get the economy going again are still getting freebies and huge discounts so not much help their either wobble

limpsfield

5,871 posts

252 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:

OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?
A 300% increase.
1 million to 3 million is a 200% increase.

jjr1

3,023 posts

259 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
limpsfield said:
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:

OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?
A 300% increase.
1 million to 3 million is a 200% increase.
oops someone skipped their maths class.

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
limpsfield said:
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:

OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?
A 300% increase.
1 million to 3 million is a 200% increase.
Correct. smile

ThroBo is off his form today. Giving us positive news, and being wrong with his calculations.

He'll be wrecking his bedroom as we speak. hehe


Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 19:35

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

53 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Deep Thought said:
jsf said:
Deep Thought said:
As a percentage unemployed.

A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.

So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
About 10%
Yes, I'm sure ThrottleBody, being a Social Media Trail Blazer has been far too busy to come back with the figure - or perhaps the percentage doesnt fit his narrative?

According to the ONS, there were 34.2 million people economically active in the UK in Feb 20 (the last figures they published).

If we take ThrottleBody's headline 3 million unemployed from the OBR forecast, then the unemployment rate would be 3 / 34.2 = 0.0877, which expressed as a percentage would 8.77%.

For comparison, during the last recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 8.5%.

Comment ThrottleBody..??

Have you given us a Good News story as this is much lower than you were previously predicting? smile

Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 17:41
Sure, the 3 million unemployed is only the forecast for this year - 2020, as per my post. The peak unemployment rate is forecast to increase into 2021.

As a worst case forecast unemployment scenario your looking at a 13% unemployment rate. Median scenario 12% moving into 2021.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

53 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
limpsfield said:
1 million to 3 million is a 200% increase.
biggrin I know, took a while.

Deep Thought

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Throttlebody said:
limpsfield said:
1 million to 3 million is a 200% increase.
biggrin I know, took a while.
A deliberate omission and a deliberate mistake?

Yeah. Thats what it all was.

As has been said, you're either a troll or a very sad individual or both.


flibbage0

202 posts

140 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
Dwh8611 said:
Plus many that are too cautious to spend due to the uncertainty of their jobs hanging by a thread. Whereas the people with the most secure jobs like key workers who we really need to spend to get the economy going again are still getting freebies and huge discounts so not much help their either wobble
We work long hours wearing face masks, dehydrated, often without A/C trying to save lives and get paid rubbish compared to equivalent professional careers, we don't have the money to spend on the economy, the freebies we get are pants. We want a salary increase not a free coffee or claps.

From what I've heard and seen car sales are currently on the up, people are buying and selling this is due to the following:

1. Car economy was shut for a good 2-3 months so that caused a lag
2. People that have a lot of capital tied into a car want to release some equity i.e they have a £50k car and will downsize to a £20k car
3. Redundancy money, people in their 50's and 60's finally splashing out on their dream car (probably a very small minority)

loskie

5,144 posts

119 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all

The Rotrex Kid

30,192 posts

159 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
loskie said:
Ford enthusiasts are mental.

av185

18,433 posts

126 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
loskie said:
Joke price.

But relative rarity and 22k low mileage broadly accounts for the crazy figure achieved.

marine boy

766 posts

177 months

Saturday 18th July 2020
quotequote all
This price must be a typo or the reserves was wildly out

https://www.historics.co.uk/buying/auctions/2020-0...
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