Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:
OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
Deep Thought said:
As a percentage unemployed.
A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
About 10%A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
jsf said:
Deep Thought said:
As a percentage unemployed.
A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
About 10%A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
According to the ONS, there were 34.2 million people economically active in the UK in Feb 20 (the last figures they published).
If we take ThrottleBody's headline 3 million unemployed from the OBR forecast, then the unemployment rate would be 3 / 34.2 = 0.0877, which expressed as a percentage would 8.77%.
For comparison, during the last recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 8.5%.
Comment ThrottleBody..??
Have you given us a Good News story as this is much lower than you were previously predicting?
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 17:41
3 million is a worst case scenario, OBR always give three scenarios, the best case is a little under two million, which is bad, but not nearly as bad an increase over the underlying rate. As for predicting what will happen in 2024, how many economic forecasters predicted 2009? Economics is not a precise science like physics, which AFAIK is why you don't get a B Sc in economics if you study it.
jsf said:
Unemployment numbers isnt the full picture, there will be large numbers of people earning much lower incomes than previously.
Yes. Initially some people may have to take a lower pay to get back in to employment and work their way back up.Its unfortunate for those affected, but sadly it does happen.
I've had to do it in the past.
People can and do recover from it, and often then go on to be on more money over time.
jsf said:
Unemployment numbers isnt the full picture, there will be large numbers of people earning much lower incomes than previously.
Plus many that are too cautious to spend due to the uncertainty of their jobs hanging by a thread. Whereas the people with the most secure jobs like key workers who we really need to spend to get the economy going again are still getting freebies and huge discounts so not much help their either Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:
OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
limpsfield said:
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:
OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
limpsfield said:
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Relevant big picture stuff:
OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
And what does that three million translate to as a percentage?OBR forecast for 2020 - unemployment to treble to 3 million. Lowest number of job vacancies since records began. ONS - 600,000 jobs already lost since lockdown. Downside forecast for unemployment to still be at 2.2 million in 2024.
ThroBo is off his form today. Giving us positive news, and being wrong with his calculations.
He'll be wrecking his bedroom as we speak.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 19:35
Deep Thought said:
jsf said:
Deep Thought said:
As a percentage unemployed.
A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
About 10%A percentage increase tells us little. As a percentage of the economically active population it is more useful.
So what does 3 million look like as a percentage of the economically active population, ie, the unemployment rate.
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 15:43
According to the ONS, there were 34.2 million people economically active in the UK in Feb 20 (the last figures they published).
If we take ThrottleBody's headline 3 million unemployed from the OBR forecast, then the unemployment rate would be 3 / 34.2 = 0.0877, which expressed as a percentage would 8.77%.
For comparison, during the last recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 8.5%.
Comment ThrottleBody..??
Have you given us a Good News story as this is much lower than you were previously predicting?
Edited by Deep Thought on Saturday 18th July 17:41
As a worst case forecast unemployment scenario your looking at a 13% unemployment rate. Median scenario 12% moving into 2021.
Dwh8611 said:
Plus many that are too cautious to spend due to the uncertainty of their jobs hanging by a thread. Whereas the people with the most secure jobs like key workers who we really need to spend to get the economy going again are still getting freebies and huge discounts so not much help their either
We work long hours wearing face masks, dehydrated, often without A/C trying to save lives and get paid rubbish compared to equivalent professional careers, we don't have the money to spend on the economy, the freebies we get are pants. We want a salary increase not a free coffee or claps. From what I've heard and seen car sales are currently on the up, people are buying and selling this is due to the following:
1. Car economy was shut for a good 2-3 months so that caused a lag
2. People that have a lot of capital tied into a car want to release some equity i.e they have a £50k car and will downsize to a £20k car
3. Redundancy money, people in their 50's and 60's finally splashing out on their dream car (probably a very small minority)
loskie said:
Ford enthusiasts are mental.loskie said:
Joke price.But relative rarity and 22k low mileage broadly accounts for the crazy figure achieved.
This price must be a typo or the reserves was wildly out
https://www.historics.co.uk/buying/auctions/2020-0...
https://www.historics.co.uk/buying/auctions/2020-0...
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