Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

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Discussion

av185

18,511 posts

127 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
quotequote all
RUSTILLDOWN said:
av185 said:
RUSTILLDOWN said:
AV185 appears to have the same reputation as Throttlebody these days! biggrin
You knowing Throttlebody speaks volumes about your apparant reputation. biggrin:
You know Throttlebody so that speaks volumes about your apparent reputation. laugh

Seriously, you used to post a few informative thought provoking comments but now you’re basically just a thread troll.
rofl

Troll is a strong word. Mods take note.

Whereas you with not even any cars listed whatsoever despite being on PH and only a few posts to your name obviously contribute a vast wealth of experience. biglaugh

Al U

2,312 posts

131 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
quotequote all
RUSTILLDOWN said:
Seriously, you used to post a few informative thought provoking comments but now you’re basically just a thread troll.
This, basically.

Let's also take a moment to discuss some of your "shrewd" suggestions for cars that may "beat" inflation.

Golf R Manual (No, not 'Manuel' which is not funny just a bit cringe really) - Manual versions of these are clearly the least desirable, as shown by the fact that as soon as you filter for automatic on Golf R's the entry price jumps higher. You say the MK8 isn't going to be offered with a manual but anyone that looks back on a manual Golf R as the last great manual Golf would have to look past the other Golf's such as the clubsport/tcr etc. I don't see them being especially desirable or inflation beating at all against those special editions.

Fiesta/Focus - Basing this solely on the fact that there are supply issues with these which you suggest is pushing up the prices of used examples, what do you think is going to happen when normal supply resumes for these run of the mill and widely available used hot hatches?

Mini (Let's assume you mean Cooper S/JCW) Manual - In my opinion these are going to be one of the biggest droppers when prices do soften more noticeably over the whole market. They are chronically overpriced for what they are, JCW being a prime example at as much as 20k for 7 year old examples, not to mention the fact that well spec'd cars are few and far between. Platform is old in the tooth, new platform was supposed to come out recently but was put on the back burner due to Covid. When the new platform versions do come out, it's going to do one thing to the prices of the older versions, in addition from any effect that market wide price softening will have. Finally, auto versions of Cooper S/JCW are in the minority rather than the majority so it's not like having a manual one will be some special achievement like it would with a modern 5 series!

So crap advice and crap responses when people clearly show that you have egg on your face.

mk1coopers

1,205 posts

152 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
I think we are fairly safe saying what’s happened since 2020 has been unprecedented, a perfect storm of Brexit, COVID and now an unjustified war where the aggressor doesn’t want to loose face by withdrawing from his ‘special military operation’.

There were always cars that people were prepared to pay a premium for, you could either be very clever and buy one, (or more than one as some people I know did) or just happen to keep something long enough for it to become collectible, trying to predict what’s going to rise (there will be ‘special’ cars that do) or fall (some / most will) is a case of making a personal judgement or spotting a trend early, all of this never happens on a level playing field, there are ‘haves and have nots’ and as another poster put it ‘wanters and needers’ , some people will have the resources to go out and buy what ever the circumstances, some people will max out their monthly’s to appear to be in a better place (and be very vulnerable to price rises), some will, like I have, start looking because they want a new car, but don’t need to change now.

I can’t see how the present economic situation, especially when we get to the latter part of this year, can’t have a negative effect on prices for a significant proportion of mainstream used cars, if you have to make a choice between keeping a roof over your head / the lights on / or having a new (to you) car (if you don’t need one) you are going to put the car on hold, demand will lower, business will have to adapt to the market (just as they have with price rises) and either drop their prices to shift stock and minimise their losses, or close their doors.

With the Merc advert it shows not everything is flying out the doors, for me it was off on spec as it’s not a premium plus, at the time I started to look the engine size wasn’t a problem, now (with fuel prices) I have to be realistic and although I ‘want’ the V6, I don’t ‘need’ one, so when I change it will probably be into a 300 (unless circumstances change)

Edited by mk1coopers on Thursday 26th May 07:33

Indecision

390 posts

80 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
I’ll throw in an anecdote - a friend has just bought a new Alfa Giulia Veloce; Alfa have put in £5k dealer support (I believe across the board), and there is plenty of stock in country for immediate delivery.

Earthdweller

13,532 posts

126 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Earthdweller said:
av185 said:
Just a few salient points:

It was never a 40k + car at the time of advertising in the first place. It was clearly overpriced even bearing in mind the strong overall market. I could ask 400k for my GT3, 458 or lawnmower it doesn't mean its worth it.

Has anyone on here viewed the car? Clearly not. So we don't know what it is like in reality and in the cold light of day.

Other possibilities are available.
So it’s gone from ..

“It probably sold straight away and they left the advert live ( they all do that Sir, it’s a quirk of the Mk1 car dealer)

now knowing it’s been for sale for 9 months and steadily reducing in price, by thousands

To “it was way overpriced and st”

Next you’ll be quoting the Daily Mail as a used car price guide!

Oh wait … you already have

laugh
If you seriously think leaving a particular car advertised for months on end is a rare event for many dealers across the UK then you really need to wake up smell the coffee and give your head a serious wobble. hehe

But thinking about it maybe dealers don't do that so much where you are in one horse downtown Accrington. biglaugh

The other rather large fly in your ointment is the mere fact that the blue 71 Enyaq you referred to trying to back up the evidence in your previous post somehow magically morphed into a black 22 plate Enyaq which does rather dilute your point somewhat. rolleyes

Still it makes for slightly better entertainment than the Daily Fail.

If only just. rofl
1. I don’t care what car dealers do

I’m just calling YOU out on your complete and utter inconsistency

2. Your obsession with Accrington is weird and bizarre and yet again I will tell you I’m not from Accrington and I do not live there .. and while we are at it the the part of this conversation you are referring to i mentioned a different town .. not Accrington .. just pure odd

3. Please review the post about the Enyaq I made, you’ll clearly see I posted two cars .. both of which are currently for sale, one black one blue, both 2022 reg cars at/about list price which considering YOU said they were selling for 80k ( they aren’t, and you couldn’t evidence that ) and then provided a 70k example which is not for sale to back up your claim of 80k Skoda’s. I merely called out and evidenced your false claim

4. Perhaps again review YOUR posts because YOU are the one who referenced and posted an article from the Daily Mail on here to evidence YOUR view about high car prices

Not me, nor anyone else .. laughing about the daily Mail when you brought it into the conversation as a serious point .. is just embarrassing don’t you think ?

Anyway you have all the consistency of a chocolate cake made by a three year old

I don’t think it’s me that needs to give my head a wobble


e-honda

8,892 posts

146 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
I live in an Accrington brick house, it is nowhere near Accrington or Manchester

Roverp666

7 posts

23 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
THE FIRST FIVE LINES OF THIS POST ARE TAKEN FROM MK1COOPERS POST, I MUST HAVE DONE SOMETHING WRONG IN THE "QUOTE " FIELD

MK1COOPER


I can’t see how the present economic situation, especially when we get to the latter part of this year, can’t have a negative effect on prices for a significant proportion of mainstream used cars, if you have to make a choice between keeping a roof over your head / the lights on / or having a new (to you) car (if you don’t need one) you are going to put the car on hold, demand will lower, business will have to adapt to the market (just as they have with price rises) and either drop their prices to shift stock and minimise their losses, or close their doors.

With the Merc advert it shows not everything is flying out the doors.


ME!

Congratulations sir, yet another individual with a more realistic view of basic economics.

The unprecedented average price rise on used cars experienced last year was obviously consumer driven. The vast majority WANTED these cars, they did not NEED them. The "needers" had to pay, therefore they did. The "wanters" did not need to pay, so if they chose to do so they obviously did not care about the cost.

Needers can have a ceiling point on cost, which can be compromised by older/cheaper model etc, however the need has to be serviced regardless. Wanters don't have a ceiling point, they just have a desire, which they will satisfy either through their own assets or credit.

Wanters cannot abide missing out. Goaded on by low manufacturer output, dealer and media hysteria "buy it now or you will never get one" the combined cohort resulted in the glorious situation for dealers of being able to advertise and sell a car before it had even arrived on site. The perfect example of the high demand low supply increasing price cycle.

We could all see it happening, no one questioned it, nobody denied it, nothing changed it, nobody could stop it.

Most wanters, due to their very nature, will have now done their thing, and consequently are now out of the market. The remaining wanters with assets, will continue to do their thing. The remaining wanters without assets are about to have their activities rapidly curtailed.

The new cohort of needers and remaining wanters results in less demand. This is not a theory, it is a reality starting to unfold right now. Before this has even started to play out fully, instead of dealers selling cars before they have them, they are now languishing on dealers sites for over 6 months. As supply chains (as they are doing) improve and cost of living bites the issue will accelerate. The perfect example of low demand high supply (for the demand there is) decreasing price cycle.

We can all see it happening, a lot are questioning it, SOME ARE DENYING IT, NOBODY WILL CHANGE IT, NOBODY WILL STOP IT!





Edited by Roverp666 on Thursday 26th May 09:04


Edited by Roverp666 on Thursday 26th May 09:06


Edited by Roverp666 on Thursday 26th May 09:07

Venisonpie

3,269 posts

82 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Roverp666 said:
THE FIRST FIVE LINES OF THIS POST ARE TAKEN FROM MK1COOPERS POST, I MUST HAVE DONE SOMETHING WRONG IN THE "QUOTE " FIELD

MK1COOPER


I can’t see how the present economic situation, especially when we get to the latter part of this year, can’t have a negative effect on prices for a significant proportion of mainstream used cars, if you have to make a choice between keeping a roof over your head / the lights on / or having a new (to you) car (if you don’t need one) you are going to put the car on hold, demand will lower, business will have to adapt to the market (just as they have with price rises) and either drop their prices to shift stock and minimise their losses, or close their doors.

With the Merc advert it shows not everything is flying out the doors.


ME!

Congratulations sir, yet another individual with a more realistic view of basic economics.

The unprecedented average price rise on used cars experienced last year was obviously consumer driven. The vast majority WANTED these cars, they did not NEED them. The "needers" had to pay, therefore they did. The "wanters" did not need to pay, so if they chose to do so they obviously did not care about the cost.

Needers can have a ceiling point on cost, which can be compromised by older/cheaper model etc, however the need has to be serviced regardless. Wanters don't have a ceiling point, they just have a desire, which they will satisfy either through their own assets or credit.

Wanters cannot abide missing out. Goaded on by low manufacturer output, dealer and media hysteria "buy it now or you will never get one" the combined cohort resulted in the glorious situation for dealers of being able to advertise and sell a car before it had even arrived on site. The perfect example of the high demand low supply increasing price cycle.

We could all see it happening, no one questioned it, nobody denied it, nothing changed it, nobody could stop it.

Most wanters, due to their very nature, will have now done their thing, and consequently are now out of the market. The remaining wanters with assets, will continue to do their thing. The remaining wanters without assets are about to have their activities rapidly curtailed.

The new cohort of needers and remaining wanters results in less demand. This is not a theory, it is a reality starting to unfold right now. Before this has even started to play out fully, instead of dealers selling cars before they have them, they are now languishing on dealers sites for over 6 months. As supply chains (as they are doing) improve and cost of living bites the issue will accelerate. The perfect example of low demand high supply (for the demand there is) decreasing price cycle.

We can all see it happening, a lot are questioning it, SOME ARE DENYING IT, NOBODY WILL CHANGE IT, NOBODY WILL STOP IT!





Edited by Roverp666 on Thursday 26th May 09:04


Edited by Roverp666 on Thursday 26th May 09:06


Edited by Roverp666 on Thursday 26th May 09:07
Quite a bizarre post.

Trying to find my place in your analogy I'm a wanter (wtf?) without an asset and according to you my activities (wtf? again) are about to be curtailed.

Sadly you're wrong. I'm very much in the market and am about to start a new job with a 60% uplift in net pay. Let the games commence!

av185

18,511 posts

127 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Al U said:
This, basically.

Let's also take a moment to discuss some of your "shrewd" suggestions for cars that may "beat" inflation.

Golf R Manual (No, not 'Manuel' which is not funny just a bit cringe really) - Manual versions of these are clearly the least desirable, as shown by the fact that as soon as you filter for automatic on Golf R's the entry price jumps higher. You say the MK8 isn't going to be offered with a manual but anyone that looks back on a manual Golf R as the last great manual Golf would have to look past the other Golf's such as the clubsport/tcr etc. I don't see them being especially desirable or inflation beating at all against those special editions.

Fiesta/Focus - Basing this solely on the fact that there are supply issues with these which you suggest is pushing up the prices of used examples, what do you think is going to happen when normal supply resumes for these run of the mill and widely available used hot hatches?

Mini (Let's assume you mean Cooper S/JCW) Manual - In my opinion these are going to be one of the biggest droppers when prices do soften more noticeably over the whole market. They are chronically overpriced for what they are, JCW being a prime example at as much as 20k for 7 year old examples, not to mention the fact that well spec'd cars are few and far between. Platform is old in the tooth, new platform was supposed to come out recently but was put on the back burner due to Covid. When the new platform versions do come out, it's going to do one thing to the prices of the older versions, in addition from any effect that market wide price softening will have. Finally, auto versions of Cooper S/JCW are in the minority rather than the majority so it's not like having a manual one will be some special achievement like it would with a modern 5 series!

So crap advice and crap responses......
Yep the last six words sum up your ridiculous post perfectly.

Lets just take a few examples from your 'sage', or rather made up on the moment hehe fictitious advice.

The Golf R. Doesn't take a genius to work out low numbers equals rarity equals higher prices. Which is exactly what category Golf Rs manuals fit into. Less popular new doesn't mean less popular used. Do try and understand this. If you possibly can.

Mini. You do realise Mini have stopped producing the manual car so autos are only available. What do you possibly think that will do to prices of late manuals???? Think about it. rolleyes

Also I don't know whether you have grasped this but Mini have recently raised the price of their new cars up to 30%. Yes 30%. Again what do you possibly think this will do to used especiallly late used values overall??? I speak from particular experience having just sold 2 new Mini Cooper S at big premiums which arrived last week after ordering last summer.

You have used the words 'in my opinion'. Just because it is your opinion doesn't mean you are right and in your case your lack of knowledge and experience clearly makes you wrong and on most counts you have been called out.

I also note you haven't commented on the other cars in my list over 40k because quite clearly you know nothing about overall market conditions and price trends on mainstream cars never mind mid to higher end.

Any more sage car tips?hehe

On second thoughts don't bother. rolleyes

av185

18,511 posts

127 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
the consistency of a chocolate cake made by a three year old
You are perfectly describing your last post on used Astra prices. Which was catastrophically inaccurate. At best.

You forgot about that didn't you.....hehe

Macron

9,871 posts

166 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Just because it is your opinion doesn't mean you are right
This feels particularly pertinent...

Al U

2,312 posts

131 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Yep the last six words sum up your ridiculous post perfectly.

Lets just take a few examples from your 'sage', or rather made up on the moment hehe fictitious advice.

The Golf R. Doesn't take a genius to work out low numbers equals rarity equals higher prices. Which is exactly what category Golf Rs manuals fit into. Less popular new doesn't mean less popular used. Do try and understand this. If you possibly can.

Mini. You do realise Mini have stopped producing the manual car so autos are only available. What do you possibly think that will do to prices of late manuals???? Think about it. rolleyes

Also I don't know whether you have grasped this but Mini have recently raised the price of their new cars up to 30%. Yes 30%. Again what do you possibly think this will do to used especiallly late used values overall??? I speak from particular experience having just sold 2 new Mini Cooper S at big premiums which arrived last week after ordering last summer.

You have used the words 'in my opinion'. Just because it is your opinion doesn't mean you are right and in your case your lack of knowledge and experience clearly makes you wrong and on most counts you have been called out.

I also note you haven't commented on the other cars in my list over 40k because quite clearly you know nothing about overall market conditions and price trends on mainstream cars never mind mid to higher end.

Any more sage car tips?hehe

On second thoughts don't bother. rolleyes
OK so if USED Golf R manuals are so desirable or likely to become so desirable, why are they priced well below the automatic alternatives? When do you expect this to change?

Regarding Mini's my point remains that there is no shortage of manual Mini's on the market, in fact they account for the majority of cars for sale. If someone desperately wants a manual then yes ok they may not be able to get a brand new one but they will have several to choose from on the used market. Congratulations on the sale of your two mini's that you sold at a big premium.

Yes, I used in my opinion which is what anything that anyone posts on this thread is. Other than you of course, who only posts facts backed up by solid evidence rolleyes

Nothing to defend your suggestion of Fiesta/Focus then?

I didn't comment on the other cars above 40k because it's a segment that I have no experience of having never owned a car that's worth that much. I wasn't commenting on overall market trend I was commenting on the quite frankly crap suggestions you put forward for so called "inflation beating" used buys.

Are you going to tell everyone what your actual involvement in the trade is yet? Not a car salesman but sold two Mini's at a premium? Are you some sort of car sourcer for throbbers?

Finally, I haven't tried to give anyone advice!

Edited by Al U on Thursday 26th May 11:16

av185

18,511 posts

127 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Al U said:
I have no experience of having never owned a car
This just about sums up your ridiculous and needlessly over aggressive post.

Your frankly laughable comments also clearly shows you have no experience whatsoever of the car industry, market and values.

Sounds like you should stick to your high level biglaugh day job of trainee engineer in a model car factory.rolleyes

No point whatsoever responding to any more of your infantile posts.

Al U

2,312 posts

131 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
Al U said:
I have no experience of having never owned a car
This just about sums up your ridiculous and needlessly over aggressive post.

Your frankly laughable comments also clearly shows you have no experience whatsoever of the car industry, market and values.

Sounds like you should stick to your high level biglaugh day job of trainee engineer in a model car factory.rolleyes

No point whatsoever responding to any more of your infantile posts.
Infantile? Like clipping my post to make it look like I have said I have never owned a car laugh

No, I have no experience of the sales side of the car industry at all. I just design them for a living.

So you aren't going to tell us what you actually do for a living other than sell Mini's at a premium despite not being a car salesmen. OK.

I'll also do my best to not reply to this thread when I see you talking rubbish and getting caught out over and over again.



Nefos

252 posts

84 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
On a completely unrelated (and slightly on topic note):
I am looking for a huge amount of popcorn, as my previous supply just ran out, I hope their prices will not increase, as it is difficult to keep up

On topic: chip production is pretty much taken up with automotive right now, we have long waiting times to make new chips, as we are getting outbid by car related production for slots. It should catch up eventually.

jimPH

3,981 posts

80 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Venisonpie said:
Quite a bizarre post.

Trying to find my place in your analogy I'm a wanter (wtf?) without an asset and according to you my activities (wtf? again) are about to be curtailed.

Sadly you're wrong. I'm very much in the market and am about to start a new job with a 60% uplift in net pay. Let the games commence!
I don't think it matters how much money people earn the cost of living affects everyone.

If you have money, you are more likely to want to keep it. Or at least you will, once you accumulate some with your new uplift...

Why pay peak prices during a low demand cycle? Just wait for production to catch up and see where the market is next year or so.

Its just a sensible, reasonable action.

Earthdweller

13,532 posts

126 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
av185 said:
You are perfectly describing your last post on used Astra prices. Which was catastrophically inaccurate. At best.

You forgot about that didn't you.....hehe
According to your Hilarious use of the Daily Mail that is

rofl

If I bought a 12-18 month old Astra 2 years ago for £12- 14k it would not be worth today (18360-21400) based on your 53% gain claim

A year old Astra bought today might cost more than a year old Astra bought 2 years ago but a three year old Astra has depreciated or is retailing for pretty much the same as it cost you 2 years ago

On the elite nav you keep referencing there are 104 of them on autotrader with less than 40k on the clock (out of the 5k+ Astra’s advertised )

The retail price spread is £10k-£14k for 3 year old cars today, so yes you could possibly get back what you paid for it, but if you replaced it you’d probably have to pay more for the replacement .. net gain probably zero or negative especially if you are getting trade in price for it

But you will not have made a 53% return on your money, that is fantasy, just like the £80k Skoda or the £34k entry price for a new Astra that you claim

A nearly new one retail today is £15-16k ( 9 same model on autotrader ) which, granted is more, but not 53% more it’s actually around 14% more and you still won’t have made any money on the car you bought 2 years ago

time waster

676 posts

241 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Chancellor clearly very worried about cost of living crisis and handing out money to all households.

just the start of it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-61591398

ghost83

5,477 posts

190 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
time waster said:
Chancellor clearly very worried about cost of living crisis and handing out money to all households.

just the start of it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-61591398
Everyone knows the cost of living crisis is real apart from av who thinks come winter ppl will still buy expensive vehicles rather than save money

av185

18,511 posts

127 months

Thursday 26th May 2022
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
av185 said:
You are perfectly describing your last post on used Astra prices. Which was catastrophically inaccurate. At best.

You forgot about that didn't you.....hehe
According to your Hilarious use of the Daily Mail that is

rofl

If I bought a 12-18 month old Astra 2 years ago for 12- 14k it would not be worth today (18360-21400) based on your 53% gain claim

A year old Astra bought today might cost more than a year old Astra bought 2 years ago but a three year old Astra has depreciated or is retailing for pretty much the same as it cost you 2 years ago

On the elite nav you keep referencing there are 104 of them on autotrader with less than 40k on the clock (out of the 5k+ Astra’s advertised )

The retail price spread is 10k- 14k for 3 year old cars today, so yes you could possibly get back what you paid for it, but if you replaced it you’d probably have to pay more for the replacement .. net gain probably zero or negative especially if you are getting trade in price for it

But you will not have made a 53% return on your money, that is fantasy, just like the 80k Skoda or the 34k entry price for a new Astra that you claim

A nearly new one retail today is 15-16k ( 9 same model on autotrader ) which, granted is more, but not 53% more it’s actually around 14% more and you still won’t have made any money on the car you bought 2 years ago
You really are clutching at straws with this one as your ridiculous and inaccurate previous post on Astra prices proves and which you have been called out on now not once but twice. But it really comes as no surprise as you literally plucked figures out of thin air. rolleyes

So quite bizarrely you claim you know more about car prices and trends than the highly esteemed Daily Fail motoring correspondent. scratchchin

Course you do. rofl

Fact is I have posted CAP clean on the 1.6 Elite Nav 200 18 68 plate at least twice on this forum in the past and just to remind you AGAIN these are the trade figures which surprise surprise further confirms the 53% rise accurately quoted in the Daily Mail.

Jan 21 £9000
Jan 22 £12250c
May 22 £12600

I'll leave you to work out the percentage price increase between Jan 21 and now bearing in mind those cars were getting £1000 behind CAP clean in Jan 21 and finally post up the infamous DM price rise info and in the meantime you might like to do some much needed research.