Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

[Tagteam]

Chamon_Lee said:

bencollins4 said:

AlexNJ89 said:

There was always going to be a period of stagnation before the drip, I think this is it.

I expect it to take until around February next year when the next rise in living costs has bitten people again.

Come on, you’re kidding yourself trying to predict this market. Saying ‘around February’ is fairly absurd in such a unique situation. Have you got a prediction on what day this war will end as well? Best of luck with your prediction but there are plenty of more experienced people who wouldn’t dare call it.

There is a large section of the market who couldn’t care less about recent price increases. Plenty with spare cash and they will want to spend it somewhere rather than waste their life waiting for the right time to buy.

Genuinely curious to know who are these so called cash rich people willing to spunk 30% over on cars and houses compared to prices 18 months ago?

There will be some / but once sentiment and confidence moves , the general mindset of people will change . They don’t want to buy at the top . They may be able to afford it , but the ‘let’s wait for six months and see’ starts and the prices have to fall to attract then to buy. But as the market is falling they may want to wait again.

[Zstar]

DavidJJ said:

Me I guess. My IS250 was written off at the weekend courtesy of someone pulling out of a sideroad, I've been offered £3.5k (ok-ish taking into account mileage, fairly tatty bodywork, plus gremlins that were going to need around £1k of remediation). It only cost £5.5k in 2017 from a Lexus dealer.

I have around £10k sitting in cash as a rainy day/bork fund which I've built up since buying it, plus the £3.5k then do a bit of man maths and I'm looking at a couple IS350s and then a 218i later. I need to drive to the office on Monday.

Perhaps that's slightly specific but I won't be the only one that has a proper need (i.e. I can't wait for prices to potentially collapse) and has come into plus accumulated some money over the last few years?

In my case, we returned from overseas (and know many others in a similar situation) who have had to buy in the current market. I am still hoping that second hand fun car prices will fall in the medium term - I sold my Elise for 11k in 2010, and can't believe that it would cost me double that to buy it back. It's very hard to see many bargains out there. There is on Evora under 40k on AT. Porsche's are very strong money for 10-20 year old cars, especially outside of the 996 and 997.1 IMS engine models. To top it all off, the cheaper cars I was looking at (S500 Coupe, ContiGT and Maserati GT) probably won't fit in our car port as the builders made it about 1900 wide

[plenty]

Venisonpie said:

The media will have us believe everyone is a week away from bankruptcy by digging up carefully selected sample sizes of one household to interview with Daily Mail faces on.

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

[bencollins4]

plenty said:

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

[tallpaul26]

I'm still on the mailing lists of a couple of car finance brokers from when I was in the market last year. They're advising that July will see an increase in rates from the finance companies.

[plenty]

bencollins4 said:

plenty said:

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

Ah ok. It's all fine then. All this talk about a cost of living crisis is clearly just media scaremongering.

[mrdanbartlett]

tallpaul26 said:

I'm still on the mailing lists of a couple of car finance brokers from when I was in the market last year. They're advising that July will see an increase in rates from the finance companies.

Makes sense with the base interest rate rising.

[Nefos]

Could we just see normal deprecation?
I have seen a bit of a drop on some prices, and made me realise that maybe we are just seeing normal deprecation of car prices, it just looks unusual after past 2 years.

Like surely we will have to talk about about a not overheated market now, where used cars just lose value as they should do, and we are not witnessing a crash right now.

[Venisonpie]

plenty said:

bencollins4 said:

plenty said:

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

Ah ok. It's all fine then. All this talk about a cost of living crisis is clearly just media scaremongering.

It's exactly why we're not seeing a crash though. Restricted supply coupled with plenty of cash swilling about is why prices are softening rather than anything more severe.

[e-honda]

bencollins4 said:

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

Those 40% don't exist in a bubble.
They will eventually come to realise they are in a smaller pool of buyers and can make lower offers.
Going down is a much slower process than going up but it is definitely seems to be happening.

[Tagteam]

Venisonpie said:

plenty said:

bencollins4 said:

plenty said:

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

Ah ok. It's all fine then. All this talk about a cost of living crisis is clearly just media scaremongering.

It's exactly why we're not seeing a crash though. Restricted supply coupled with plenty of cash swilling about is why prices are softening rather than anything more severe.

That tends to be the way these things happens . Starts slowly and then gains momentum, and then everyone sits there saying why didn’t we see the warnings, as they were everywhere.

[Mr Whippy]

bencollins4 said:

plenty said:

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

Which is why CBs are going to shock and awe the “I’ll just spend whatever because I can” bunch back into having some discrimination on what they’re willing to spend.

Anyone getting big wodges of finance at high interest rates on a used car now is going to be suffering very soon.

[MDMA .]

RUSSELLM said:

dan98 said:

A new Dacia Sandero is 13000 in the UK, but only 8300 in Germany. (more Brexit winning I suppose).

Perhaps it's time to go back to importing like we did in the 00's.

Has anyone experience of doing this recently and knows what extra red tape is involved?

Won't it be LHD ? That aside, is it the same spec for both markets ?

Have you checked the import duty yet ?

Edited by RUSSELLM on Tuesday 21st June 11:59

More like €15,000 in Germany.

[Hippea]

Cars I’d thought we’d see start dropping, M140i, M240i, Golf R etc are still commanding very strong prices. What’s the predictions on these for the next 6 or 12 months?

[anonymous-user]

Hippea said:

Cars I’d thought we’d see start dropping, M140i, M240i, Golf R etc are still commanding very strong prices. What’s the predictions on these for the next 6 or 12 months?

I think they will stay strong.

Good all rounders. Perfect cars for families going down to one car. Performance, practicality, wifey can drive it, and ok on fuel if you drive it normally and quick when u want it to be

[Venisonpie]

e-honda said:

Those 40% don't exist in a bubble.
They will eventually come to realise they are in a smaller pool of buyers and can make lower offers.
Going down is a much slower process than going up but it is definitely seems to be happening.

They do live in a bubble though, they're not susceptible to the current inflation levels in the same way some are. Life is normal as are their buying habits.

As car enthusiasts we're perhaps aware of the market but many people simply don't know or care. If they can afford it they'll have it.

For the current prices to crash finance needs to become unavailable or unaffordable, unemployment needs to rise and supply increased. None of those things are close to happening.

[Fusion777]

Venisonpie said:

They do live in a bubble though, they're not susceptible to the current inflation levels in the same way some are. Life is normal as are their buying habits.

As car enthusiasts we're perhaps aware of the market but many people simply don't know or care. If they can afford it they'll have it.

For the current prices to crash finance needs to become unavailable or unaffordable, unemployment needs to rise and supply increased. None of those things are close to happening.

Unemployment doesn’t need to rise, it just needs people to have increased outgoings, which has been the case for months (and will continue/get worse).

Unemployment is low, but the same was said in 2006 before the crash. When growth slows/contracts, jobs unfortunately start to go. It’s also a lagging factor, so the damage tends to happen after the worst growth figures.

[Venisonpie]

Fusion777 said:

Unemployment doesn’t need to rise, it just needs people to have increased outgoings, which has been the case for months (and will continue/get worse).

Unemployment is low, but the same was said in 2006 before the crash. When growth slows/contracts, jobs unfortunately start to go. It’s also a lagging factor, so the damage tends to happen after the worst growth figures.

I agree in principle with your last two sentences, I don't think we're anywhere near that yet though.

[vikingaero]

plenty said:

bencollins4 said:

plenty said:

According to the ONS, 60% of adults say they have cut back on non-essential spending.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...

Sure. 40% of 67 million people is quite a lot, and they apparently haven't cut back on non-essential spending.

Ah ok. It's all fine then. All this talk about a cost of living crisis is clearly just media scaremongering.

I think that the cost of living rises and fuel price rises have been tempered by the mild winter/spring/summer we've had/been having. When the second energy cap rise in October comes into effect we'll see more stress on spending.

[Al U]

Venisonpie said:

They do live in a bubble though, they're not susceptible to the current inflation levels in the same way some are. Life is normal as are their buying habits.

As car enthusiasts we're perhaps aware of the market but many people simply don't know or care. If they can afford it they'll have it.

For the current prices to crash finance needs to become unavailable or unaffordable, unemployment needs to rise and supply increased. None of those things are close to happening.

Regarding this 40% that said no, the question was "have you cut back on non-essential spending". Non-essential is obviously quite subjective but I would put essentials down as mortgage/rent, utilities, motoring costs and food.

Have I bought anything in the last few months other than those things? Of course I have. Did I think of the cost of living crisis is a bit much at the moment so I can't justify going out for this meal or buying these clothes etc? No. So if asked the question I would say no as well.

But I wouldn't say I live in a bubble and yes inflation with regards to fuel prices and supermarket shops etc. has gone up and that's a cost I have to accept but in terms of buying a car, I don't have to accept the high prices being asked when I think it's going to continue going down.

I think the people you are talking about who genuinely couldn't care less about the price of cars or depreciation are a much lower percentage of the population and are probably buying cars at the higher end of the market approaching 6 figures.