Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)
Discussion
MuddyK said:
So PH collective, I wonder what we all predict is the future value of my recent dream car ownership (not that it matters too much to me because am loving it).
Defo not a standard run of the mill car. But does that automatically mean prices are going up? Or down?
Cons: Car is now nearly 10 years old. Big bills always on the horizon (already had a £6k warranty bill). MPG/ Road Tax. Mileage is creeping up as it's my daily. Currently on 74k miles.
Pros: Hpi clear, full Merc history. Bloody look at it. The noise.
I purchased for £23.5k which may have been on the high side but it comes with a 3year warranty which has more than paid for itself.
What we all think?
I use older models to look at future depreciation. Looking at the SL55 and C55 they seems to have bottomed out at around £12k - £15k so that's where I'd expect it to go. It's too modified for it to appreciate in value unfortunately, those who buy in to appreciating cars want original.Defo not a standard run of the mill car. But does that automatically mean prices are going up? Or down?
Cons: Car is now nearly 10 years old. Big bills always on the horizon (already had a £6k warranty bill). MPG/ Road Tax. Mileage is creeping up as it's my daily. Currently on 74k miles.
Pros: Hpi clear, full Merc history. Bloody look at it. The noise.
I purchased for £23.5k which may have been on the high side but it comes with a 3year warranty which has more than paid for itself.
What we all think?
There was also A LOT of them made and plenty good low mileage ones for sale.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess (and its just a guess) that that car will be almost worthless in 10 years time. I think punitive taxes on something like that by the early 2030s are inevitable, and its not desirable enough to appeal to wealthy collectors. It will just be an old gas-guzzling merc saloon on 150,000 miles that is taxed to the hilt and looks and sounds a bit "council". No-one on an actual council estate will be able to afford to run it and no-one wealthy will want it as it isn't rare or special enough.
That said, if you store it in a barn for the next 25 years it may be worth something when you bring it out, as it will then be a rare ICE classic, but I think cars of this vintage are going to suffer over the next 10 years and many will likely get scrapped.
I love a V8, as many of us do, but I'm not sure that there are enough of us to hold up values of cars like this. You should enjoy it while you can, but I think you may be kidding yourself if you think that as one of the "last of the V8s" its depreciation proof.
That said, if you store it in a barn for the next 25 years it may be worth something when you bring it out, as it will then be a rare ICE classic, but I think cars of this vintage are going to suffer over the next 10 years and many will likely get scrapped.
I love a V8, as many of us do, but I'm not sure that there are enough of us to hold up values of cars like this. You should enjoy it while you can, but I think you may be kidding yourself if you think that as one of the "last of the V8s" its depreciation proof.
Lil_Red_GTV said:
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess (and its just a guess) that that car will be almost worthless in 10 years time. I think punitive taxes on something like that by the early 2030s are inevitable, and its not desirable enough to appeal to wealthy collectors. It will just be an old gas-guzzling merc saloon on 150,000 miles that is taxed to the hilt and looks and sounds a bit "council". No-one on an actual council estate will be able to afford to run it and no-one wealthy will want it as it isn't rare or special enough.
That said, if you store it in a barn for the next 25 years it may be worth something when you bring it out, as it will then be a rare ICE classic, but I think cars of this vintage are going to suffer over the next 10 years and many will likely get scrapped.
I love a V8, as many of us do, but I'm not sure that there are enough of us to hold up values of cars like this. You should enjoy it while you can, but I think you may be kidding yourself if you think that as one of the "last of the V8s" its depreciation proof.
I agree, but disagree with it being because of tax.That said, if you store it in a barn for the next 25 years it may be worth something when you bring it out, as it will then be a rare ICE classic, but I think cars of this vintage are going to suffer over the next 10 years and many will likely get scrapped.
I love a V8, as many of us do, but I'm not sure that there are enough of us to hold up values of cars like this. You should enjoy it while you can, but I think you may be kidding yourself if you think that as one of the "last of the V8s" its depreciation proof.
It would be savage on the poorer people who can't afford a less than 5 year old car to tax them harder. Unless they do some kind of help-to-buy scheme where your first electric car has no VAT or something.
2030 is only 7 years away so there will be plenty petrol cars still around.
I think close to, or just after, 2030 the penny is going to drop that things like this are no more.
With most cars in existence still ICE, any remarkable ICE may become sought after as it will still be straightforward to run them.
As new kids come along who know nothing other than EV, this will spell the end of any significant interest in ICE cars. But that could take a good while to work through.
Even then, anything truly special will still be valued.
Some people still run WW2 fighters.
With most cars in existence still ICE, any remarkable ICE may become sought after as it will still be straightforward to run them.
As new kids come along who know nothing other than EV, this will spell the end of any significant interest in ICE cars. But that could take a good while to work through.
Even then, anything truly special will still be valued.
Some people still run WW2 fighters.
I suppose its a dream car purchase, and the rent is £596 a month it's a bit steep but heart over head thing + petrolhead. It makes a fantastic noise, and maybe one day I can look back at it with fond memories.
Much rather HP this than PCP some bland car at 400 a month.
Am not trying to show off or advertise it. Im just genuinely interested in what happens to the future values of cars like these and all the other M3s RS6s etc etc.
I don't think any EVs will be in demand/ hold value, but will older cars like mine which are normal, not special models and plenty of them made. Will they? Probably not. So what will then?
Just mint models of super rare cars?
Much rather HP this than PCP some bland car at 400 a month.
Am not trying to show off or advertise it. Im just genuinely interested in what happens to the future values of cars like these and all the other M3s RS6s etc etc.
I don't think any EVs will be in demand/ hold value, but will older cars like mine which are normal, not special models and plenty of them made. Will they? Probably not. So what will then?
Just mint models of super rare cars?
MuddyK said:
So what will then?
Just mint models of super rare cars?
The AMG Black version of this will definitely hold money. Maybe not appreciate as much as I don't believe it was wildly different such as the SLS, CLK or SL. But the AMG Black badge will absolutely help it hold money.Just mint models of super rare cars?
I can't imagine anything worse than buying something fun and indulgent that I plan to get a lot of pleasure from and then ever worrying about its value to be honest. It's like looking at the petrol pump when filling up a car you know is only doing 10mpg, it serves no purpose other than to rob you of joy.
Buy it. Assume it's worth absolutely nothing. Get maximum pleasure.
Or buy it. Spend your time worrying about what it is worth that day. Spent your time worrying about the bills. Spend your time concerned about what other people may think. Waste your life.
Buy it. Assume it's worth absolutely nothing. Get maximum pleasure.
Or buy it. Spend your time worrying about what it is worth that day. Spent your time worrying about the bills. Spend your time concerned about what other people may think. Waste your life.
DonkeyApple said:
I can't imagine anything worse than buying something fun and indulgent that I plan to get a lot of pleasure from and then ever worrying about its value to be honest. It's like looking at the petrol pump when filling up a car you know is only doing 10mpg, it serves no purpose other than to rob you of joy.
Buy it. Assume it's worth absolutely nothing. Get maximum pleasure.
Or buy it. Spend your time worrying about what it is worth that day. Spent your time worrying about the bills. Spend your time concerned about what other people may think. Waste your life.
That's very ideological thinking. Might as well say 'hey, don't be sad, smile!' depression cured!Buy it. Assume it's worth absolutely nothing. Get maximum pleasure.
Or buy it. Spend your time worrying about what it is worth that day. Spent your time worrying about the bills. Spend your time concerned about what other people may think. Waste your life.
Your thinking is spot on but for some, especially when financed as given the value aligns with equity/debt, treating what is a financed tool as a source of pleasure just is not possible.
That person is just spending too much. It's that simple.
If you buy something for pleasure and then worry about how much it cost so struggle to enjoy it then that person is a muppet who has either bought something too expensive for their appetite or procured the use of it the wrong way.
Buy it. Enjoy it. Bin it.
Buy it. Worry about it. End up selling it with remorse is a miserable way to exist.
If you buy something for pleasure and then worry about how much it cost so struggle to enjoy it then that person is a muppet who has either bought something too expensive for their appetite or procured the use of it the wrong way.
Buy it. Enjoy it. Bin it.
Buy it. Worry about it. End up selling it with remorse is a miserable way to exist.
Not sure how it's turned into spending too much, selling etc. I never said I was looking to sell. It's about 20% of my net pay. That's too expensive for some, for others not so much.
Just to put it out there, I'm fully aware I will probably lose a good few k if/when I decide to sell. But it's my dream car, and I'm cool with that. Am i an idiot?, a debt junkie/a fool and his money etc. Probably. Who cares. I have a blast every day.
What I was hoping we could discuss, is what we all think is the future for once upon a time desirable ICE cars, in this new EV age. Not the special editions, but the normal performance models. RS/S, AMGs, R's. M3 etc. Are they are doomed as thirsty bygones, taxed to death?
Im not too worried, but it'l be s
t if it's worth £10 in a few years.
Just to put it out there, I'm fully aware I will probably lose a good few k if/when I decide to sell. But it's my dream car, and I'm cool with that. Am i an idiot?, a debt junkie/a fool and his money etc. Probably. Who cares. I have a blast every day.
What I was hoping we could discuss, is what we all think is the future for once upon a time desirable ICE cars, in this new EV age. Not the special editions, but the normal performance models. RS/S, AMGs, R's. M3 etc. Are they are doomed as thirsty bygones, taxed to death?
Im not too worried, but it'l be s
t if it's worth £10 in a few years. I don't think we've been discussing your car at this point just the concept of buying something for pleasure and then worrying about it all the time.
No one knows what's going to happen to high tax, large cc, low mpg and noisy cars.
One thing you know about Brits though is that the ones that despise EVs today, when they get one tomorrow they'll be despising things like a C63 and ranting that everything they once loved about the car is now evil. It's just what they do. Whether that holds prices up or drops them is completely unknown.
Buy what you want. Enjoy it. The window for ICE is closing.
No one knows what's going to happen to high tax, large cc, low mpg and noisy cars.
One thing you know about Brits though is that the ones that despise EVs today, when they get one tomorrow they'll be despising things like a C63 and ranting that everything they once loved about the car is now evil. It's just what they do. Whether that holds prices up or drops them is completely unknown.
Buy what you want. Enjoy it. The window for ICE is closing.
MuddyK said:
My bad. I completely agree 100%
I would say though its often a balance for most, i.e YES you want a dream/nice car but if it suddenly starts costing you 10k a year which you didn't expect and you have to sacrifice family holidays or such then that's not ideal. So its more about calculated risk vs reward. I very much built my whole model of car ownership on running costs/depreciation factors, i.e buy a car outright for X, ideally one that IS enjoyable but doesnt have extreme depreciation/running costs, save money up for the next car, repeat etc. Now I own outright a pretty nice car, if I'd have not bought as wisely alot of that capital would have just gone down the drain on bills and depreciation.Nothing wrong with spending money (at any level/budget) on things you enjoy but always try and do it wisely IMO.
Of all the really high end manufacturers Porsche always struck me as the one that the owner likely has that as their only/main use car. I would think people who were thinking of one as their daily have likely seem costs rise too much to justify as a posh daily and are starting to head back to BMW, Merc or Audi.
Interesting report in The Telegraph today:
A glut of cars on the market is to trigger a price war among manufacturers as demand fails to keep pace with supply, analysts have forecast.
UBS has estimated that global car production will exceed sales by 6pc this year, leaving an excess of five million vehicles that will require price cuts to shift.
A brimming order book for most carmakers means that prices are likely to remain high for the first half of the year, analysts at the bank said.
After that, sluggish economic growth and higher living costs will squeeze potential buyers’ ability to afford new cars, which is likely to hit prices as cars remain unsold.
A glut of cars on the market is to trigger a price war among manufacturers as demand fails to keep pace with supply, analysts have forecast.
UBS has estimated that global car production will exceed sales by 6pc this year, leaving an excess of five million vehicles that will require price cuts to shift.
A brimming order book for most carmakers means that prices are likely to remain high for the first half of the year, analysts at the bank said.
After that, sluggish economic growth and higher living costs will squeeze potential buyers’ ability to afford new cars, which is likely to hit prices as cars remain unsold.
Vroomer said:
Interesting report in The Telegraph today:
A glut of cars on the market is to trigger a price war among manufacturers as demand fails to keep pace with supply, analysts have forecast.
UBS has estimated that global car production will exceed sales by 6pc this year, leaving an excess of five million vehicles that will require price cuts to shift.
A brimming order book for most carmakers means that prices are likely to remain high for the first half of the year, analysts at the bank said.
After that, sluggish economic growth and higher living costs will squeeze potential buyers’ ability to afford new cars, which is likely to hit prices as cars remain unsold.
This has been my general view post Covid. And with rising cost of financing impacting on demand adding to production volumes increasing on the supply side the manufacturers are all heading towards a price war to try and win customers. A glut of cars on the market is to trigger a price war among manufacturers as demand fails to keep pace with supply, analysts have forecast.
UBS has estimated that global car production will exceed sales by 6pc this year, leaving an excess of five million vehicles that will require price cuts to shift.
A brimming order book for most carmakers means that prices are likely to remain high for the first half of the year, analysts at the bank said.
After that, sluggish economic growth and higher living costs will squeeze potential buyers’ ability to afford new cars, which is likely to hit prices as cars remain unsold.
We've also got the impending effects of the artificial EV market coming in as U.K. sales must meet minimum numbers of EVs.
In turn, all of that must blow used values.
Rather annoyingly, I'd nicely positioned myself to grab a replacement everyday wagon some time next year but find myself considering having to do that now, which is a bit of a shame.
G-wiz said:
I have no statistics, reports, or any reliable indicator to back this up, but cars I was looking in Autotrader seem to be 25% cheaper than just a few weeks ago.
e.g. 2-3 year old small electric cars were around £20k, but seem to be available below £15k now.
Primarily because the ass has fallen out of the new and used EV market so prices are falling like a lead balloon.e.g. 2-3 year old small electric cars were around £20k, but seem to be available below £15k now.
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