Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

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Discussion

cidered77

1,614 posts

196 months

Monday 21st June 2021
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Teebs said:
cidered77 said:
Nah - they're not, they re-value in the month the new car is due to be delivered. But on the basis that A: 4 months is sooner than 12 months, and there's a much stronger probability that values will be more normal over a long time period, and B: i really like the car, and it's man-maths not real maths, then it was enough of a thing now to pull the trigger...
OK, cheers - good to know.
not to say i didn't try of course! smile

but one rule of Negotiation School from I recall when i did do that sort of thing for a job is "establish legitimacy" up front - and in fairness, asking them to fix a price for 4 months when you're still driving it at rate of 12k miles per year and the used market is so crazy, didn't seem very legitimate -plus in any deal, the other party usually slaps on a contingency on top of any risky element (plus of course - maybe prices will still go up?!). Save the negotiation to the stuff they can calculate - their top line margin, for example....!

Deep Thought

35,720 posts

196 months

Monday 21st June 2021
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Pugland53 said:
WBAC offered £26600 for our March 2019 M140i which is pretty much what the basic car cost new. The dealer matched it as a p/x as they were desperate for stock so we ordered a new M135i, which itself was discounted by £4700.
Yes, i think thats the scenario where you'd get the best value - max price trade in, decent discount, and i think 2.9% APR on those should someone require finance. IF for example (not that it would work for us as we need a 5 door) i was to try to trade in the M140i for an used M2, i'd be getting my £5K more but a used M2 is £5K more too, so no net benefit.

I'm warming to the M135i to be honest. Wasnt a fan when they came out but they're growing on me. They work best in the mid to darker metallics, in my eyes anyway.


Anonymous-poster

12,241 posts

205 months

Monday 21st June 2021
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I asked this a few weeks back but maybe no one knows but are the likes of Rockingham getting empty?

jimPH

3,981 posts

79 months

Monday 21st June 2021
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Deep Thought said:
Pugland53 said:
WBAC offered £26600 for our March 2019 M140i which is pretty much what the basic car cost new. The dealer matched it as a p/x as they were desperate for stock so we ordered a new M135i, which itself was discounted by £4700.
Yes, i think thats the scenario where you'd get the best value - max price trade in, decent discount, and i think 2.9% APR on those should someone require finance. IF for example (not that it would work for us as we need a 5 door) i was to try to trade in the M140i for an used M2, i'd be getting my £5K more but a used M2 is £5K more too, so no net benefit.

I'm warming to the M135i to be honest. Wasnt a fan when they came out but they're growing on me. They work best in the mid to darker metallics, in my eyes anyway.
Doubt you'd regret getting a new M135i, I think the new one is better in every conceivable way other than a straight line and I liked our old M135i. I don't miss that loose back end.

Deep Thought

35,720 posts

196 months

Tuesday 22nd June 2021
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jimPH said:
Doubt you'd regret getting a new M135i, I think the new one is better in every conceivable way other than a straight line and I liked our old M135i. I don't miss that loose back end.
Yeah you're probably right. I guess we're enjoying the M140i enough that we dont feel a need to change right now.


321boost

1,253 posts

69 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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Deep Thought said:
Our 2019 M140i has just broken £25K on WBAC! Amazing for a car we gave £28,200 new in Mar 2019.

21-Nov-19 £20,500
20-Mar-20 £12,270
10-Apr-20 Declined to offer
10-May-20 Declined to offer
08-Jun-20 £18,000
22-Jun-20 £19,000
14-Jul-20 £19,500
29-Jul-20 £21,000
2-Aug-20 £21,500
19-Aug-20 £21,680
4-Sep-20 £23,000
14-Sep-20 £23,000
30-Sep-20 £22,000
7-Oct-20 £21,570
23-Oct-20 £21,710
5-Nov-20 Declined to offer
19-Nov-20 £20,790
15-Dec-20 £21,340
18-Jan-21 £20,210
24-Feb-21 £20,410
06-Mar-21 £19,445
18-Apr-21 £21,405
08-May-21 £23,240
18-May-21 £23,700
27-May-21 £24,500
01-Jun-21 £24,710
19-Jun-21 £25,210

hope it hits £35k-40k soon

Deep Thought

35,720 posts

196 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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321boost said:
hope it hits £35-40k soon
hehe

This time next year Rodney....

321boost

1,253 posts

69 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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Deep Thought said:
321boost said:
hope it hits £35-40k soon
hehe

This time next year Rodney....
really most cars from this point on will hopefully sustain double appreciation.

av185

18,432 posts

126 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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havoc

29,917 posts

234 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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Court_S said:
Deep Thought said:
Its absolutely crazy. Maybe this is the "new normal" now for prices?
Possibly, but I hope it. This could be the U.K. falling in line with European prices which seem loads higher.

Maybe the big change will come when the big fleets start changing their cars again.
I can't see it, not past 12 months time...

- Car makers can't survive on these lower volumes. They'll find a way to unlock the supply issues. Otherwise there'll be multiple plant closures across Europe, with probably 6-figure job losses up and down the supply chain in Europe. Governments won't allow that, but EU rules prevent direct subsidies, so pressure will be applied behind the scenes...
- So supply WILL increase again.
- ...against a historic trend of steadily decreasing demand, note
- ...so the OEMs, once any order backlog is under control, will want to give punters the confidence to order a new car again.
- ...so there'll be deals to be had...which will knock on down the used-car market.


I would guess at peak used-car prices somewhere around Q4 this year. +/- a few months at most.

321boost

1,253 posts

69 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
quotequote all
havoc said:
Court_S said:
Deep Thought said:
Its absolutely crazy. Maybe this is the "new normal" now for prices?
Possibly, but I hope it. This could be the U.K. falling in line with European prices which seem loads higher.

Maybe the big change will come when the big fleets start changing their cars again.
I can't see it, not past 12 months time...

- Car makers can't survive on these lower volumes. They'll find a way to unlock the supply issues. Otherwise there'll be multiple plant closures across Europe, with probably 6-figure job losses up and down the supply chain in Europe. Governments won't allow that, but EU rules prevent direct subsidies, so pressure will be applied behind the scenes...
- So supply WILL increase again.
- ...against a historic trend of steadily decreasing demand, note
- ...so the OEMs, once any order backlog is under control, will want to give punters the confidence to order a new car again.
- ...so there'll be deals to be had...which will knock on down the used-car market.


I would guess at peak used-car prices somewhere around Q4 this year. +/- a few months at most.
i disagree the higher prices are here to stay. used car prices are likely to climb near their new sale price and maybe beyond but how long for? no one knows probably permanent increases

nickfrog

20,871 posts

216 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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Not sure if relevant but WBAC's offer seems to have plateaued at £31k on the M2. The same for 3 weeks now.

Earthdweller

13,423 posts

125 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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321boost said:
i disagree the higher prices are here to stay. used car prices are likely to climb near their new sale price and maybe beyond but how long for? no one knows probably permanent increases
No they’re not

Cars are not houses, and even the price of houses can go down

Exceptional events have led to an exceptional “moment in time” which will pass


321boost

1,253 posts

69 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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Earthdweller said:
321boost said:
i disagree the higher prices are here to stay. used car prices are likely to climb near their new sale price and maybe beyond but how long for? no one knows probably permanent increases
No they’re not

Cars are not houses, and even the price of houses can go down

Exceptional events have led to an exceptional “moment in time” which will pass
wait and watch then will ask you again in 2026 what you think.

anonymous-user

53 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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Earthdweller said:
321boost said:
i disagree the higher prices are here to stay. used car prices are likely to climb near their new sale price and maybe beyond but how long for? no one knows probably permanent increases
No they’re not

Cars are not houses, and even the price of houses can go down

Exceptional events have led to an exceptional “moment in time” which will pass
I think we all just took the fact that the UK has the cheapest second hand car prices for granted. I have a funny feeling those days might be coming to an end and it will be more like other countries.

I lived in Australia for a while and everyone I knew just bought new cars as the difference between new and a few years old was nothing like it was in the UK.

321boost

1,253 posts

69 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
Earthdweller said:
321boost said:
i disagree the higher prices are here to stay. used car prices are likely to climb near their new sale price and maybe beyond but how long for? no one knows probably permanent increases
No they’re not

Cars are not houses, and even the price of houses can go down

Exceptional events have led to an exceptional “moment in time” which will pass
I think we all just took the fact that the UK has the cheapest second hand car prices for granted. I have a funny feeling those days might be coming to an end and it will be more like other countries.

I lived in Australia for a while and everyone I knew just bought new cars as the difference between new and a few years old was nothing like it was in the UK.
they are already ended. I even expect UK new car market to be much more than the world.

Jonstar

859 posts

190 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I think we all just took the fact that the UK has the cheapest second hand car prices for granted. I have a funny feeling those days might be coming to an end and it will be more like other countries.

I lived in Australia for a while and everyone I knew just bought new cars as the difference between new and a few years old was nothing like it was in the UK.
So the prices increasing just happened to coincide with a global pandemic then...

As someone has said already, the current situation is exceptional, as we slowly return to normality the previously depreciating assets will still depreciate and vice versa, the fundamentals have not changed.

The genuine low volume special cars will still appreciate as they did pre pandemic but the run of the mill M2's, Golf R's etc (no offence) will continue their downward trajectory.

All IMO of course.

Edited by Jonstar on Thursday 24th June 16:06

Earthdweller

13,423 posts

125 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
quotequote all
Jonstar said:
Joey Deacon said:
I think we all just took the fact that the UK has the cheapest second hand car prices for granted. I have a funny feeling those days might be coming to an end and it will be more like other countries.

I lived in Australia for a while and everyone I knew just bought new cars as the difference between new and a few years old was nothing like it was in the UK.
So the prices increasing just happened to coincide with a global pandemic then...

As someone has said already, the current situation is exception, as we slowly return to normality the previously depreciating assets will still depreciate and vice versa, the fundamentals have not changed.

The genuine low volume special cars will still appreciate as they did pre pandemic but the run of the mill M2's, Golf R's etc (no offence) will continue their downward trajectory.

All IMO of course.
Everyone has been caught out and even those on vol 1 of this that were saying used prices would rise was because people would be forced to buy cheaper cars as they couldn’t afford more expensive ones

Well .. prices have risen, but not for those reasons

Govts around the world have pumped trillions and trillions of £/€/$ etc in the global economy, often just by printing it and handing it out

Many people have found themselves far better off with much lower outgoings .. and they’ve gone on a spending bender with the “free money” not just on cars but houses and everything in between

And this has all coincided with a major distortion and disruption of the global supply train which is impacting all sectors not just automotive parts

Prices are rising across the board as is inflation, furlough is ending .. the free money taps are stopping and the global supply chain will go back to normal

People will have less discretionary money due to rising prices and going back to their old lifestyles, money will likely cost more to borrow and car manufacturers will want their factories turning out brand new cars and will subsidise them to get people into them

It will correct, how hard and how fast I don’t know but the days of £50k 5 year old M135’s ain’t happening anytime

Boom’s always hit the peak right before they go pop



em177

3,127 posts

163 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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I have a 2007 V8 Vantage.

WBAC are throwing an extra £1000-1200 a week at it.

Obviously its impossible to tell but I wonder when the 'peak' prices will be...

av185

18,432 posts

126 months

Thursday 24th June 2021
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321boost said:
i disagree the higher prices are here to stay. used car prices are likely to climb near their new sale price and maybe beyond but how long for? no one knows probably permanent increases
Correct.

Someone mentioned some run of the mill cars including the Golf R which will continue their overall downward trajectory. Again this is doubtful. The Golf R is an interesting one as massive oversupply and cheap subsidised pcp deals over the last few years meant the market was flooded with particularly poverty spec cars many appearing through BCA from VW Finance and values took a hit but they were good value.

But the new model is typically substantially dearer and there are currently no cheap deals to be had which will push up particularly late run used cars especially the rare and now unique manual with more power 310 bhp no parasitic auto gearbox power losses less weight and in high spec.

2 to 3 year old Golf Rs are a prime example of a model that will take a couple of years at least to get back to where there were recently residually and this is typical of many cars vanilla medium or high end.

Edited by av185 on Thursday 24th June 16:58


Edited by av185 on Thursday 24th June 16:59