Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

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Discussion

SteBrown91

2,360 posts

128 months

Friday 20th May 2022
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Macron said:
"drop to bits"? You have a reliable 6 year old car with some consumables that need replacing mechanically and you may need to turn the stereo up or buy a trim fitting toolkit for a fiver on eBay. Or yeah, spend ? On a GT4S to keep AV"it's only ever sunny here"185 happy.
“Dropping to bits” is a bit of an exaggeration yes, but the build and component quality compared to a mk6 golf I had is poor, however the roads I have to use for work are absolutely appalling which is likely not helping things.

It’s not that it’s going to fail it’s just a daily irritant to drive and I would like something that feels better screwed together and nicer to drive, but I don’t want that at the current cost to change into something suitable (not a GT4)

av185

18,433 posts

126 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Macron said:
av185 said:
Things are somewhat different this time
Ah, it's different this time. It always is.

av185 said:
What is different this time is
Ah, really different. So different it won't be like any boom and bust ever seen ever before. Good job Gordon Brown abolished that eh?
So presumably during the last recession you must have lived far far away in some parallel universe which had remarkably and coincidentally also just been affected by a major pandemic, there were major supply chain issues and rising prices affecting car manufacturers new car prices had shot up to a remarkable 30% and manufacturers had concentrated on margin not volume throttling the supply of used cars which resulted in rising used prices up to 55%.

anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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AlexNJ89 said:
Absolutely agree with this.

I have friends who are desperate for a property market crash so they can buy, little do they know they won't be able to get a mortgage if there were to be one.
There is a whole website of them, HousePriceCrash. They have been predicting the crash for nearly 20 years now. What I don't understand is if prices did fall at what point they would be prepared to buy? Prices are never going to fall to what they were 20 years ago, they will only fall to a price that these people previously believed was too expensive at the time.



av185

18,433 posts

126 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Joey Deacon said:
AlexNJ89 said:
Absolutely agree with this.

I have friends who are desperate for a property market crash so they can buy, little do they know they won't be able to get a mortgage if there were to be one.
There is a whole website of them, HousePriceCrash. They have been predicting the crash for nearly 20 years now. What I don't understand is if prices did fall at what point they would be prepared to buy? Prices are never going to fall to what they were 20 years ago, they will only fall to a price that these people previously believed was too expensive at the time.
Quite and the vast majority of such people inevitably naysayers and doomoongers always touting the old chestnut 'I am waiting for the inevitable and obvious crash in prices and will definitely pounce and secure a bargain' scratchchin never actually do and constantly sit on the sidelines thinking prices will fall further dither and faff some more then find to their surprise prices are rising again and they rinse and repeat. hehe

Applies to cars houses and stock markets alike.

Twas ever thus.

nickfrog

20,872 posts

216 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Joey Deacon said:
AlexNJ89 said:
Absolutely agree with this.

I have friends who are desperate for a property market crash so they can buy, little do they know they won't be able to get a mortgage if there were to be one.
There is a whole website of them, HousePriceCrash. They have been predicting the crash for nearly 20 years now. What I don't understand is if prices did fall at what point they would be prepared to buy? Prices are never going to fall to what they were 20 years ago, they will only fall to a price that these people previously believed was too expensive at the time.
Yes and now even if you sit on cash and have been ready to pounce for the past 20 years, your cash is eroding quite badly while house prices are still rising. It would need to be a humongous bubble burst to claw all this back to under what house prices were 20 years ago... unless you've invested wisely in the interim of course. But then again you would have had to live in rented for 20 years.

Edited by nickfrog on Saturday 21st May 12:27

time waster

676 posts

240 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Joey Deacon said:
AlexNJ89 said:
Absolutely agree with this.

I have friends who are desperate for a property market crash so they can buy, little do they know they won't be able to get a mortgage if there were to be one.
There is a whole website of them, HousePriceCrash. They have been predicting the crash for nearly 20 years now. What I don't understand is if prices did fall at what point they would be prepared to buy? Prices are never going to fall to what they were 20 years ago, they will only fall to a price that these people previously believed was too expensive at the time.
Rates have consistently been cut to prevent the crash for the past 20 years. When they hit 0.5% they are now going one way.

Evercross

5,882 posts

63 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Earthdweller said:
Watched a YouTube video yesterday from a caravan dealer who was walking around his stock

He was saying that demand has just evaporated.. gone

He was pointing out vans and saying things like “we’re fully stocked up, bought loads of stock in, it’s just died a death, hands on the head time”

Lots of expensive stock and nobody buying, vans that would have sold in hours .. no interest.
That wasn't difficult to predict once international travel restrictions started to drop-off post Covid.

yellowbentines

5,296 posts

206 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Evercross said:
Earthdweller said:
Watched a YouTube video yesterday from a caravan dealer who was walking around his stock

He was saying that demand has just evaporated.. gone

He was pointing out vans and saying things like “we’re fully stocked up, bought loads of stock in, it’s just died a death, hands on the head time”

Lots of expensive stock and nobody buying, vans that would have sold in hours .. no interest.
That wasn't difficult to predict once international travel restrictions started to drop-off post Covid.
I wonder when we'll start to see the increase in badly finished/half-finished DIY camper van conversions on the market.

Wilmslowboy

4,189 posts

205 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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yellowbentines said:
Evercross said:
Earthdweller said:
Watched a YouTube video yesterday from a caravan dealer who was walking around his stock

He was saying that demand has just evaporated.. gone

He was pointing out vans and saying things like “we’re fully stocked up, bought loads of stock in, it’s just died a death, hands on the head time”

Lots of expensive stock and nobody buying, vans that would have sold in hours .. no interest.
That wasn't difficult to predict once international travel restrictions started to drop-off post Covid.
I wonder when we'll start to see the increase in badly finished/half-finished DIY camper van conversions on the market.
I'm in the mkt for a VW Cali Beach - Need to try and time it right as a correction could see a 20% drop.


yellowbentines

5,296 posts

206 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Wilmslowboy said:
yellowbentines said:
I wonder when we'll start to see the increase in badly finished/half-finished DIY camper van conversions on the market.
I'm in the mkt for a VW Cali Beach - Need to try and time it right as a correction could see a 20% drop.
Haven't the VW vans (especially the factory built campers) traditionally had rock solid values. I'm just back from a week in the Lakes and they are everywhere.

I was meaning more the young couple who couldn't get to Ibiza through the pandemic so set up an Instagram account charting their 'build', bought an old Fiat Ducato at auction, filled it with 1000kgs of loft insulation and timber panelling, and now realise #vanlife isn't as comfortable as they anticipated!

Earthdweller

13,432 posts

125 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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yellowbentines said:
Wilmslowboy said:
yellowbentines said:
I wonder when we'll start to see the increase in badly finished/half-finished DIY camper van conversions on the market.
I'm in the mkt for a VW Cali Beach - Need to try and time it right as a correction could see a 20% drop.
Haven't the VW vans (especially the factory built campers) traditionally had rock solid values. I'm just back from a week in the Lakes and they are everywhere.

I was meaning more the young couple who couldn't get to Ibiza through the pandemic so set up an Instagram account charting their 'build', bought an old Fiat Ducato at auction, filled it with 1000kgs of loft insulation and timber panelling, and now realise #vanlife isn't as comfortable as they anticipated!
I was on the verge of buying a camper just before lockdown ( Adria twin supreme ) then we know what happened so it went on the back burner, but it’s not forgotten

A mate of mine had 1999 Fiat Ducato lwb panel van that he converted himself into a rough/ready camper. The van cost him about £1500 and the bits not much at all.

He sold it during lock down and people were fighting over it and he made a killing on it

Meanwhile Another mate went out and spent £38k on a 2008 tag axle camper on eBay without any habitation checks etc … because they couldn’t go on holidays .. they’ve used it once, they went to Scotland in it and his wife flew back laugh it’s a 3.0 and does 20mpg and now it’s costing him a monthly storage fee to keep it on a nearby farm

Some people just went mad and I really don’t see him getting his money back on it

Incidentally, I’ve just come back from doing the NC500 and it was notably much quieter for camper vans than on previous trips, nowhere near as much wild camping and the sites along the route weren’t full at all

Tomanybikes

987 posts

25 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Earthdweller said:
I was on the verge of buying a camper just before lockdown ( Adria twin supreme ) then we know what happened so it went on the back burner, but it’s not forgotten

A mate of mine had 1999 Fiat Ducato lwb panel van that he converted himself into a rough/ready camper. The van cost him about 1500 and the bits not much at all.

He sold it during lock down and people were fighting over it and he made a killing on it

Meanwhile Another mate went out and spent 38k on a 2008 tag axle camper on eBay without any habitation checks etc … because they couldn’t go on holidays .. they’ve used it once, they went to Scotland in it and his wife flew back laugh it’s a 3.0 and does 20mpg and now it’s costing him a monthly storage fee to keep it on a nearby farm

Some people just went mad and I really don’t see him getting his money back on it

Incidentally, I’ve just come back from doing the NC500 and it was notably much quieter for camper vans than on previous trips, nowhere near as much wild camping and the sites along the route weren’t full at all
My local campsite is full and it’s mostly camper vans probably 5 to 1 caravans.

ghost83

5,476 posts

189 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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One of our neighbours has got a t6?? Camper and it’s lovely but not my thing! Him and his wife go off on wknds away him fishing mainly

Was shocked when he said it cost him more than 60k


To me for 60k and site fees that buys a lot of nice holidays abroad

Fusion777

2,211 posts

47 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Camper/motorhome prices are even more silly than some new car prices. Maybe we've found another niche for av185?

Auto810graphy

1,373 posts

91 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Any camper dealers who purchased in the past 9 months are probably nervous as demand is drying up as anyone that wanted one has bought them in the past 24 months.

As mentioned many of these people are starting to want out of them when they can now get on a plane for guaranteed sun rather than worrying about who’s going to empty the chemical bog.


ghost83

5,476 posts

189 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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Im joy into campers or caravans tbh I deal a lot with caravan parks and the prices of caravans and “lodges” are just ridiculous! (Ones I saw Friday ranged from 42k upto 130k plus yearly site fees of between 3,000/7000)

Don’t understand the ppl that waste that sort of money on them I rly don’t! If I want to go to the coast I’m glad to get back home at the end of the day!

I can of understand boats as you can at least travel and stay overnight different places but caravans and campers are just a no from me personally!

Regarding cars my mate who works at the local merc dealer again says sales are down massively compared to earlier on in the year,

yellowbentines

5,296 posts

206 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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ghost83 said:
Im joy into campers or caravans tbh I deal a lot with caravan parks and the prices of caravans and “lodges” are just ridiculous! (Ones I saw Friday ranged from 42k upto 130k plus yearly site fees of between 3,000/7000)
Going OT now but as mentioned above just back from the Lakes and out of curiosity looked at property prices. At one of the parks (White Cross) there's a 2 bed timber lodge up for £335k! It looks fairly standard in size and is neither brand new nor right on the lake - that price seems bonkers.

ghost83

5,476 posts

189 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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yellowbentines said:
Going OT now but as mentioned above just back from the Lakes and out of curiosity looked at property prices. At one of the parks (White Cross) there's a 2 bed timber lodge up for 335k! It looks fairly standard in size and is neither brand new nor right on the lake - that price seems bonkers.
Absolute madness! The things ppl could do with 335k rather than buy them

AndyDefault

115 posts

157 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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SteBrown91 said:
I'm in the same boat, I want to move out of what was mean't to be a stop gap car (which I have ended up keeping 3 years!) into something else.

Looked at x3 30d's, 530d tourings, even Superb Sportline estaes, but I cannot justify the cost. Especially when you put the reg into total car check and it detects a previous advert when the car was 6 months old in 2019 for 6 grand less than its up for now with 40k on the clock.

My current 2016 GTD estate is starting to drop to bits with rattling trim, an increasingly noisy wheel bearing and a juddery clutch when hot, but its never actually let me down, has no finance against it, does 48-50mpg without trying and is only 30 quid to tax.

Setting myself up for finance on a 35k car that is becoming out of favour due to EVs, with the impending energy price cap increases and cost of living squeeze is making me just keep running what I have for now. And I think many other people I know are in a similar situation.
I'm in a similar position. Gave my 4 series back at the earliest point of VT point of pcp in 2020 as we only needed 1 car, upgraded my missus Kia Rio to a Tiguan as a stop gap due to impending child and then all this kicked off. Now in a situation where I desperately regret not having bought sometime more long term like a fast estate and anything I want now seems to be anything up to 10k over what the equivalent would've been 18 months ago. For example 3 YO 330i tourings going for £35k! banghead

lord trumpton

7,321 posts

125 months

Saturday 21st May 2022
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I think spending in general on many things will just dry up with all the press coverage of impending financial ruin.

Confidence is evaporating rapidly and a lot of people who bought in the bubble, are in for a proper rinsing be that caravans, campers, cars or houses.



Edited by lord trumpton on Saturday 21st May 21:44