ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?

ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?

Author
Discussion

Kawasicki

13,041 posts

234 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
thiscocks said:
If you think the car industry will accept being not allowed to produce an ICE vehicle in less than 10 years you are as deluded as the government.
Best news ever for the car industry. Your IC car is now obsolete, buy a new EV, today!

Down on the Farm

Original Poster:

207 posts

52 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
thiscocks said:
If you think the car industry will accept being not allowed to produce an ICE vehicle in less than 10 years you are as deluded as the government.
Hi thiscocks,

That's not what I am saying at all. Read my first post.

Of course I am aware that the ban is for NEW cars and old ICE will be run for many years after that if not decades of more.


I am actually amazed that the government has apparently committed to the 2030 date much to the incredulity of the car industry themselves and they are now under immense pressure to deliver and are going to find it difficult to achieve. So difficult in fact that I think we will see the demise of some marques.

What I am questioning is it worth "investing" in an expensive performance car to be kicked in the balls by collapsing residuals and demonisation of "the old smokers" once the mAjority of public perception changes and re-educated the government, green lobby and press.


Edited by Down on the Farm on Friday 5th February 21:44

996Type

684 posts

151 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
It may also work out that you can choose any shape of car you want and fit it with electric underpinnings.

3D print a Lamborghini Miura faster and better handling than the real thing and just play the V12 track inside the cabin.

10 years down the road and we’ll all be driving leccy F40’s but with none of the risk of getting burned to a crisp or service costs that exceed the cost of your house??

In fact, keep the engine and just run compressed air through them to make the same noise, but propulsion provided by electrons.....

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
Muddle238 said:
Petrol and diesel will be around for a long time to come.
Don't bet on it.

How's a "petrol station" going to be a viable business when a couple of old croakers turn up in their "classics" once a month for 20 litres of unleaded? They need a queue at the pumps and a van-load of builders buying Ginsters pies just to stay afloat.

Down on the Farm

Original Poster:

207 posts

52 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
Best news ever for the car industry. Your IC car is now obsolete, buy a new EV, today!
Exactly Kawasicki!


salesman: Come have a look at our new EVs, endorsed by and mandated by our wonderful enlightened government!

Now what have you got in part ex - er

Errr it's a quaint old 3.0 twin turbo -

oh dear, never mind, I think we can dispose of it for you! smile

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
Best news ever for the car industry. Your IC car is now obsolete, buy a new EV, today!
Exactly this. Especially in a post-Bexit UK where King Boris will promise Nissan the earth so long as they churn out eco-weenie electrics "somewhere up north" at affordable prices so that city dwellers can be squeaky clean and side-step Sadiq Khan's ULEZ taxes.

av185

18,432 posts

126 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
Down on the Farm said:
Hi thiscocks,

That's not what I am saying at all. Read my first post.

Of course I am aware that the ban is for NEW cars and old ICE will be run for many years after that if not decades of more.


I am actually amazed that the government has apparently committed to the 2030 date much to the incredulity of the car industry themselves and they are now under immense pressure to deliver and are going to find it difficult to achieve. So difficult in fact that I think we will see the demise of some marques.

What I am questioning is it worth "investing" in an expensive performance car to be kicked in the balls by collapsing residuals and demonisation of "the old smokers" once the mAjority of public perception changes and re-educated the government, green lobby and press.
What type of car are you referring to and what price?

Last of the line particularly na high end high performance cars are seeing a resurgance atm despite known headwinds. Unfortunately some will end up in collections but values are expected to rise especially limited run models.

Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants amd wholst they are at the front of ev drsign they are clearly committed to continuing ice car production for some considerable time.

Down on the Farm

Original Poster:

207 posts

52 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
996Type said:
It may also work out that you can choose any shape of car you want and fit it with electric underpinnings.

3D print a Lamborghini Miura faster and better handling than the real thing and just play the V12 track inside the cabin.

10 years down the road and we’ll all be driving leccy F40’s but with none of the risk of getting burned to a crisp or service costs that exceed the cost of your house??

In fact, keep the engine and just run compressed air through them to make the same noise, but propulsion provided by electrons.....
Like your style 996, you may hAve a thing there!

Have been watching Vintage Voltage so maybe strip out the old lump when it becomes non viable and stitch in an electric motor and strap a few batteries in - job done - will see me out! smile

sticks090460

1,074 posts

157 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
I currently have a Maserati Granturismo Sport with a 4.7l V8. I’m currently contemplating a V12 DB11, and have just ordered a Boxster for the Mrs. That said, I am 60, so will probably don’t have to worry about the future as much as many people on here. The fact is, they’ll be selling petrol for at least 10 years after the sale of ICE cars is banned, by which time I’ll be 80, the Aston won’t owe me anything, and we’ll probably have realised that battery powered electric cars are a stupid idea. Hydrogen fuel cells are the way to go.

anonymous-user

53 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
av185 said:
Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants....
WTF is an "alternative fuel plant"? Is that where they make the new "bio-porsche" that runs off a small tray of mustard and cress?

Here we go with a bit of eco-flim and weenie-flam, https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2020/company/porsc...

Down on the Farm

Original Poster:

207 posts

52 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
av185 said:
What type of car are you referring to and what price?

Last of the line particularly na high end high performance cars are seeing a resurgance atm despite known headwinds. Unfortunately some will end up in collections but values are expected to rise especially limited run models.

Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants amd wholst they are at the front of ev drsign they are clearly committed to continuing ice car production for some considerable time.
Hi av

I would like a new 718 GTS 4.0 but looking like long long delivery.

So also considering nearly new 992 2S / 4S so topping 100k


As I have said can't really get down the OPC to see what I want and test drive at the moment.

I think I just need to choose something and get on with it smile

off_again

12,249 posts

233 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
Been said previously, but lets be honest, is any government really going to ban ICE cars by 2030 / 2035 or what ever? Not seeing it. The chances of this actually coming into affect is limited, any deadlines will get pushed and its only for new cars anyway. Does that mean that ICE is going away? No time soon.

I will admit to having an EV at the moment and the number of buyers out there will increase for sure. But when we look at the global EV market, its something like 2%-3% of the total currently. Ok, so its 9 years until 2030 and a lot can change, but the shift to EV is increasing but its going to have to stratospheric to get to that 2030 deadline!

What concerns me is that its all good and great if you can afford an EV or you are in a position to utilize one. Charging at home is an issue for a large percentage of the population and for most, an EV is still a luxury purchase. How many millions of people are there that run a 10+ year old car to get them around? How many have no charging at home (or work etc) and are we really expecting society, life, home, living spaces to dramatically change in 9 years to actually make this a reality? Mmmm, not quite seeing it. And thats before we look at all of the investment that any government needs to make on shifts in taxation, investment in charging infrastructure and even simple things like training fire fighters etc! Its going to cost billions to get there, at the tax payers expense, forcing buying habits (at tax payers expense) and ultimately penalizing ICE (at tax payers expense). Yeah, good luck getting that legislation through!

The shift is here. Its happening. Its not for everyone yet and wont be for a number of years still. If the numbers and personal situation works for you now, go for it. But if EV's dont work for you, dont do it. Even if its seen as an inevitable thing, you have years yet and can easily adjust before it becomes a pain!

Personally, I suspect the next big car purchase I make will be another EV. I knew that my C63S was likely to be the last big engined car I get. Not because I am giving up, but I can easily switch to EV. I have a drive, charging at home is easy and I dont commute. But I could also do a number of different things. Get a cheap & cheerful run around, get some sort of classic, get a nice EV or even increase the number of motorcycles I have. Kids will be out of the house in a couple of years, so have to find a way to spend their inheritance!

GrJa

146 posts

42 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
HughG said:
I’m sure that synthetic fuel will allow us to run ICE cars long after the ban on selling new ICE cars.
I have been saying this since the “electric revolution” really started moving. So many powerful people with multi million pound classics that run on petrol, they aren’t going to stop running them.
To me, the electric revolution is just a power shift away from oil producing countries. Once the shift is complete the new “normal” will be revealed. Possibly a synthetic petrol that is already ready and waiting for it’s time.

Down on the Farm

Original Poster:

207 posts

52 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
off_again said:
Been said previously, but lets be honest, is any government really going to ban ICE cars by 2030 / 2035 or what ever? Not seeing it. The chances of this actually coming into affect is limited, any deadlines will get pushed and its only for new cars anyway. Does that mean that ICE is going away? No time soon.

I will admit to having an EV at the moment and the number of buyers out there will increase for sure. But when we look at the global EV market, its something like 2%-3% of the total currently. Ok, so its 9 years until 2030 and a lot can change, but the shift to EV is increasing but its going to have to stratospheric to get to that 2030 deadline!

What concerns me is that its all good and great if you can afford an EV or you are in a position to utilize one. Charging at home is an issue for a large percentage of the population and for most, an EV is still a luxury purchase. How many millions of people are there that run a 10+ year old car to get them around? How many have no charging at home (or work etc) and are we really expecting society, life, home, living spaces to dramatically change in 9 years to actually make this a reality? Mmmm, not quite seeing it. And thats before we look at all of the investment that any government needs to make on shifts in taxation, investment in charging infrastructure and even simple things like training fire fighters etc! Its going to cost billions to get there, at the tax payers expense, forcing buying habits (at tax payers expense) and ultimately penalizing ICE (at tax payers expense). Yeah, good luck getting that legislation through!

The shift is here. Its happening. Its not for everyone yet and wont be for a number of years still. If the numbers and personal situation works for you now, go for it. But if EV's dont work for you, dont do it. Even if its seen as an inevitable thing, you have years yet and can easily adjust before it becomes a pain!

Personally, I suspect the next big car purchase I make will be another EV. I knew that my C63S was likely to be the last big engined car I get. Not because I am giving up, but I can easily switch to EV. I have a drive, charging at home is easy and I dont commute. But I could also do a number of different things. Get a cheap & cheerful run around, get some sort of classic, get a nice EV or even increase the number of motorcycles I have. Kids will be out of the house in a couple of years, so have to find a way to spend their inheritance!
Haha! I can see you have given this a little thought smile I agree with all you have said and there are a lot of unknowns down the line.

My post has been a little reach out to take the temperature of whether it would be sensible to splash the cash on an expensive ICE car knowing that the march of electrification will impact on future ownership and values.

We have plenty of space on the drive to charge an EV. I just get the vibes that the technology is going to take a huge leap once the big boys get their act together properly and will leave ICE cars as a minority enthusiasts pastime, but that's a long time off.

In the meantime it does seem inconceivable that the number of EV that can be manufactured cain replace ICE cars Anytime soon

Edited by Down on the Farm on Friday 5th February 22:43

rodericb

6,657 posts

125 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all
Down on the Farm said:
I am actually amazed that the government has apparently committed to the 2030 date much to the incredulity of the car industry themselves and they are now under immense pressure to deliver and are going to find it difficult to achieve. So difficult in fact that I think we will see the demise of some marques.

What I am questioning is it worth "investing" in an expensive performance car to be kicked in the balls by collapsing residuals and demonisation of "the old smokers" once the mAjority of public perception changes and re-educated the government, green lobby and press.


Edited by Down on the Farm on Friday 5th February 21:44
If there aren't enough resources to build the electric vehicles then there's not going to be enough of them to go 'round. It's not the car manufacturers problem if they can't keep up with demand. It might also be a great opportunity to leverage that demand and price their product accordingly. If all goes well it'll set a new market expectation for the higher price which will be disguised by a low monthly lease headliner.

Due to a shortage of EV's then people will be forced to run their existing cars for longer and this will increase demand for old vehicles if people can't afford to replace with new EV's. Government manipulation which distorts a market like this doesn't usually go well. Its not helped by people who have a compliance boner and can't wait to display their virtue through berating people who don't share their fervour.

neutral 3

6,356 posts

169 months

Friday 5th February 2021
quotequote all


3.0CSL Lurve........

RyanOPlasty

750 posts

207 months

Saturday 6th February 2021
quotequote all
If the ban is on internal combustion engines, will this prompt the resurgence of steam-powered cars or the use of Stirling engines?

stevemcs

8,592 posts

92 months

Saturday 6th February 2021
quotequote all
Find me a large estate for 5k that I can own and don’t have to pay out monthly for and I’ll buy one.

Muddle238

3,871 posts

112 months

Saturday 6th February 2021
quotequote all
rockin said:
Muddle238 said:
Petrol and diesel will be around for a long time to come.
Don't bet on it.

How's a "petrol station" going to be a viable business when a couple of old croakers turn up in their "classics" once a month for 20 litres of unleaded? They need a queue at the pumps and a van-load of builders buying Ginsters pies just to stay afloat.
I don’t disagree with you. I think petrol stations themselves will eventually change, either becoming EV charge hubs or will be bulldozed to make way for houses.

However I still stand by my thoughts about petrol and diesel being around for a long time - both are a by-product of fractional distillation of crude oil. We will still produce them whether we like it or not, as such once the traditional petrol station has disappeared in a few decades, fuel will be delivered to home-storage tanks to those who require it, very similar to how home heating oil is currently delivered and stored.


Baldchap

7,505 posts

91 months

Saturday 6th February 2021
quotequote all
Changes to vehicles due to legislation and fashion trends (SUVs etc) are the reason I bought my Elise and GRY. Both represent the last of something good.