Large capacity engines. Very sought after or hot potato?

Large capacity engines. Very sought after or hot potato?

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Equus

16,770 posts

100 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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I've noticed that the values of second-hand large-engined cars (at least the ones I've got my eye on) seem to have taken a noticeable hit even just since the Ukraine thing kicked off and fuel prices went mad, which doesn't bode well post-2030.

My personal guess is that things will happen a lot faster than many people think, too. it will be just like the withdrawal of leaded petrol, where you get a fairly rapid vicious circle forming: reduced demand = lower production volumes = higher production and distribution costs = reduced demand... I reckon that within as little as 10-15 years after 2030, petrol could become a very expensive, very niche product.

NMNeil

5,860 posts

49 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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TeaVR said:
I know........crystal ball stuff, but which way do you think it will go?

In the future (say next 5-10 years), will large capacity engined cars (V8s, V10s, etc) be very much sought after, or will they become pretty much worthless?

My personal thoughts are that the very special stuff will be collected and hoarded, but the mass produced large capacity engined cars will devalue to the point that they become hot potatoes.

Thoughts?



Edited by TeaVR on Sunday 15th May 13:38
With the impending mandatory speed limiters on new cars, a 'pre-ban' anything, will always be worth more.

deckster

9,630 posts

254 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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NMNeil said:
With the impending mandatory speed limiters on new cars, a 'pre-ban' anything, will always be worth more.
That's a interesting statement but I suspect fuelled by personal interest rather than realistic expectation.

The huge majority of people will barely notice a mandatory speed limiter, and beyond a few headlines in the Express will care even less.

The intersection of those who care, and those with the financial means to pay significantly over the odds for a car which can break the speed limit, will be small.

That intersection will be, to all intents and purposes, non-existent after 5 years.

Equus

16,770 posts

100 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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deckster said:
That's a interesting statement but I suspect fuelled by personal interest rather than realistic expectation.
yes

There's also the potential (likelihood?) that insurers will start heavily loading the premiums of any cars not fitted with speed limiters.

Louis Balfour

26,271 posts

221 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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I suspect large capacity, inglorious, cars to tank. I think special stuff will be fine.




NMNeil

5,860 posts

49 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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deckster said:
That's a interesting statement but I suspect fuelled by personal interest rather than realistic expectation.

The huge majority of people will barely notice a mandatory speed limiter, and beyond a few headlines in the Express will care even less.

The intersection of those who care, and those with the financial means to pay significantly over the odds for a car which can break the speed limit, will be small.

That intersection will be, to all intents and purposes, non-existent after 5 years.
It's 2030 and on sale is a pre-ban 200 mph Ferrari and a post ban Ferrari limited to 70 - 80mph.
Which would be worth more?

deckster

9,630 posts

254 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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NMNeil said:
deckster said:
That's a interesting statement but I suspect fuelled by personal interest rather than realistic expectation.

The huge majority of people will barely notice a mandatory speed limiter, and beyond a few headlines in the Express will care even less.

The intersection of those who care, and those with the financial means to pay significantly over the odds for a car which can break the speed limit, will be small.

That intersection will be, to all intents and purposes, non-existent after 5 years.
It's 2030 and on sale is a pre-ban 200 mph Ferrari and a post ban Ferrari limited to 70 - 80mph.
Which would be worth more?
Again you're imposing your own prejudices here.

I do confess that I am not in the Ferrari-buying demographic. But my suspicion is that most who buy Ferraris buy them because they want a Ferrari. Not because they want a car that goes quickly.

Or to put it another way: why is a Ferrari worth more than a Nissan GTR?

There may be, for a small amount of time, those who will pay more for a 3-year old unrestricted Ferrari than they will a 2-year old restricted one. But the pool of those who will pay more for a 10 year old unrestricted Ferrari over a 3-year old restricted one will be very small indeed.

NMNeil

5,860 posts

49 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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deckster said:
Again you're imposing your own prejudices here.

I do confess that I am not in the Ferrari-buying demographic. But my suspicion is that most who buy Ferraris buy them because they want a Ferrari. Not because they want a car that goes quickly.

Or to put it another way: why is a Ferrari worth more than a Nissan GTR?

There may be, for a small amount of time, those who will pay more for a 3-year old unrestricted Ferrari than they will a 2-year old restricted one. But the pool of those who will pay more for a 10 year old unrestricted Ferrari over a 3-year old restricted one will be very small indeed.
I used Ferrari as an example because they are marketed solely on the high speed capability and spring to mind when a high performance car brand is mentioned. You can substitute any performance car you like, and if it's not fitted with a speed limiter, it will be worth more than one that is.

deckster

9,630 posts

254 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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NMNeil said:
I used Ferrari as an example because they are marketed solely on the high speed capability and spring to mind when a high performance car brand is mentioned. You can substitute any performance car you like, and if it's not fitted with a speed limiter, it will be worth more than one that is.
I get your point, really I do.

But my point is that your average high-performance car buyer is buying into a brand, a lifestyle, and an image. Not, actually, a high-performance car.

The huge majority of this demographic will prioritise a newer (and therefore more prestigious, in their eyes) car than an older one, even if it theoretically goes faster when they aren't driving it down Kensington High Street.

stanglish

255 posts

112 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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What brings great money is usually stuff that people idolise/reverse/lust after as a kid or adolescent. That could be truly special stuff, things that have media exposure or even the top tier version of the car their parents own.

10-25 years later when that generation has enough money, that's where it gets directed. This is how fast (and expensive old Fords happen for example.

So you have to ask yourself, what does a 16 year old today actually like which has a big engine? In 10-15 years if they have the money, what will it go on?
Not sure there is much tbh. Interesting turning point.

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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stanglish said:
What brings great money is usually stuff that people idolise/reverse/lust after as a kid or adolescent. That could be truly special stuff, things that have media exposure or even the top tier version of the car their parents own.

10-25 years later when that generation has enough money, that's where it gets directed. This is how fast (and expensive old Fords happen for example.

So you have to ask yourself, what does a 16 year old today actually like which has a big engine? In 10-15 years if they have the money, what will it go on?
Not sure there is much tbh. Interesting turning point.
I think most of the younger gen like hot hatches. A45's, RS3 etc. Bad Man German Whips.

Not a single V8 in sight. Maybe a W204/5 C63 and RS6. But they will become too old/complex to run for them in the future. Can't think of many other V8s that appeal to them.



Mr E

21,584 posts

258 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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Well, the merc is for sale in a couple of months. So I expect the trough to be about then.

Mr E

21,584 posts

258 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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Brooksay said:
fk me! £15 a week without even starting the engine!
Compared with a few hundred quid of lease/pcp payments, it’s a rounding error.

Dingu

3,686 posts

29 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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Equus said:
yes

There's also the potential (likelihood?) that insurers will start heavily loading the premiums of any cars not fitted with speed limiters.
Only if people crash them more frequently or on average much more destructively.

thiscocks

3,127 posts

194 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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J4CKO said:
We are still in a weird position due to Covid and Putin the UK government
Costs me £125 to brim my Volvo V70 now. I think large V8s ect will be sought after as summer weekend cars and possibly things like the newer AMG V8s for the petrol heads who can afford it as a year round second car (hopefully). I still don't think we will all suddenly be driving electric in 5-10 years as we wont have the electric charging infrastructure and people will realise its not going to save the planet like we have been told. So petrol stations will still be plentiful to fill up a V8 with. Dread to think how much a full tank will cost in 10 years time though.

thiscocks

3,127 posts

194 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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deckster said:
I do confess that I am not in the Ferrari-buying demographic. But my suspicion is that most who buy Ferraris buy them because they want a Ferrari. Not because they want a car that goes quickly.
confused

samoht

5,633 posts

145 months

Sunday 15th May 2022
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OP says 5-10 years, so in the 2027-32 timeframe.

First, some things that I don't think will be factors:

Bearing in mind pure ICEs will be sold new til '30, and as hybrids until 2035, there'll be no shortage of petrol stations.

Also I don't anticipate significantly increased road taxes on petrol cars in this timeframe. The 2017 changes removed the fuel consumption (=CO2) component of the annual tax charge on cars from then on (Chirons will be £165 pa to tax once over six years old). Increasing taxes much above inflation on existing older cars can be a real political hot potato, especially as older cars are often driven by the less well off. (Cars being charged top rate of £630 pa were always expensive to tax from new, it's not been imposed retrospectively).

You may see road charging imposed across the board, in addition to fuel taxes on ICE; but that would be an additional cost on all vehicles, not selective against big engined cars.


There are not yet any speed limiters which can't be disabled, and there may well never be, so I'm not convinced that's a factor we can anticipate just yet.

Fuel prices are high now, but they rise and fall over time, we can't really anticipate prices in the 5-10 year timeframe. What is clear now, I think, is that there will never really be any overall sustained shortage of oil; the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb CO2 is the limiting factor, not the amount of oil in the ground.

Coming to things that I think are factors in our timeframe, the biggest supply and demand factors are (a) that big engines won't be made any more (cf the 2.0L "C63"), and against that (b) the advantages of ever-improving EVs, both inherent and government-sponsored.

On the former, normally a new generation arrives that is faster and better, and the older cars move down in value accordingly. With newer cars being mostly four-pot hybrids, older models will tend to hold more appeal.

On the latter, currently 2014ish Model S's are around £30k, they don't seem to be depressing big engined car values yet. New cars don't compete with old ones unless they suddenly come down in price, which doesn't seem likely esp given the need for a huge battery to give decent range.


Overall I'm not seeing a reason for big-engined performance cars to lose value especially in the 5-10 year range, as I don't see new EVs as competition to old cars at under half their original value, and I don't see swingeing taxes being imposed 'retrospectively'. If anything values would tend to strengthen IMO in that timeframe, as the cars are recognised as irreplaceable, yet the new EVs are too expensive / limited to directly replace them just yet.

Mr Tidy

22,065 posts

126 months

Monday 16th May 2022
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cerb4.5lee said:
Dynion Araf Uchaf said:
It'll be taxed to buggery though.
Agree with this. I only have a 3.7 litre V6 in the 370Z, and that already costs £630 a year to tax.
I can relate to that as my 3.2 litre BMW Z4M is in the same tax bracket. eek

Still it's a price worth paying, and hopefully it will continue to be sought after. Rarity may help too as the UK got less than 600 M Coupes.

I think my daily E90 330i may become a hot potato though even if Road Tax is "only" £340 a year!

NMNeil

5,860 posts

49 months

Monday 16th May 2022
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deckster said:
I get your point, really I do.

But my point is that your average high-performance car buyer is buying into a brand, a lifestyle, and an image. Not, actually, a high-performance car.

The huge majority of this demographic will prioritise a newer (and therefore more prestigious, in their eyes) car than an older one, even if it theoretically goes faster when they aren't driving it down Kensington High Street.
I'm also thing in terms of buying for investment with no intention of actually driving it on a regular basis.



BrettMRC

4,037 posts

159 months

Monday 16th May 2022
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H_4_ESC said:
I suppose it is that they need more fettling (patience)to keep on the road than say an old Ford or Triumph. There is always something that needs doing, so you have to be dedicated. I have been trying to find an oil leak on my Chim on and off for about the last 15 years. Had a Specialist take the engine out, new head gaskets/valley/rocker covers and sump sealed and it is still dropping as badly as it was before! Had an endoscope to it, spent hours looking around the back of the engine and underneath and still cannot see where it is coming from! Frustrating is not the word! That is the reason I think TVRs aren’t going up in value, they aren’t the easiest of things to live with.
This is the most TVR thing I have ever heard! hehe