Has the 612 bottomed out?
Discussion
Are the 2+2 and V12 Ferrari's in general always heading south with regards to depreciation? if so then why? is it the running costs? or are they at the bottom of the cycle similar to the Ferrari V8's cycle?
I've read all I can, even watched the Chris Harris 599 YouTube video and read how he sold after 10 months and an eye watering £10k of running costs but to get your hand on a 612 for sub £70k does seem like a hole lot of car for that price wouldn't you agree?
I would only do 3 to 4k per year so would hope to keep the maintenance bills to a minimum.
I've read all I can, even watched the Chris Harris 599 YouTube video and read how he sold after 10 months and an eye watering £10k of running costs but to get your hand on a 612 for sub £70k does seem like a hole lot of car for that price wouldn't you agree?
I would only do 3 to 4k per year so would hope to keep the maintenance bills to a minimum.
hunter 66 said:
Less £2k a year on average for my 3 years and 9 k miles ...... reliable and easy to run
Same experience for me over 2 years and 5k miles. Can't wait for a euro tour in my 599 this summer!Regards to depreciation, 612 & 599 have picked up a little and still offer excellent value for money.
Not sure if this has been mentioned previously but the Market Trends section (https://themarket.co.uk/market-trends) of Patina (https://www.getpatina.com) is becoming a pretty reliable source of advertised market prices. The numbers are advertised prices of course so you can expect actual selling prices to be a tad lower but they are very good at showing trends in the market. Here is the one for the 612 which references 781 UK ads over a two year period an indicating a just over 8% rise since September 2014. I'm not affiliated with the site other than being a member, but I can certainly recommend taking a look - it's come along nicely.
thecook101 said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned previously but the Market Trends section (https://themarket.co.uk/market-trends) of Patina (https://www.getpatina.com) is becoming a pretty reliable source of advertised market prices. The numbers are advertised prices of course so you can expect actual selling prices to be a tad lower but they are very good at showing trends in the market. Here is the one for the 612 which references 781 UK ads over a two year period an indicating a just over 8% rise since September 2014. I'm not affiliated with the site other than being a member, but I can certainly recommend taking a look - it's come along nicely.
Nice graph, are you able to post one for the 599 too? I could - they have 1117 data points for the 599 - but if you don't mind I think it would be fairer to Patina if you registered and had a look around yourself. Sorry - but it's their data and free to register after all. The link is https://themarket.co.uk.
TISPKJ said:
Problem with the 612 is that whilst it currently looks like the bargain in Ferrari world currently and almost the starter money F car, not long ago they were down to 45k, so for me 70k is not the bottom
Not sure I get your analysis, isn't the definition of bottoming out that it has depreciated all it is going to and is now rising again? So the cheapest examples sank as low as 45k but now average around 70k, that pretty much answers the OP's question. Yes there could be a crash that affects all Ferrari prices but I think the chances of picking up well spec'd NA Ferrari V12 for under 70k are rapidly thinning out. I bought in '15 at what I thought was the bottom of the market so yes I have an interest, but various sources indicate an upward trend and I'd challenge anyone to experience a 612 being used as intended and position it as a sub 70k car.My position is as follows, purchased my first Ferrari 2 years ago and it has increased in value although I haven't sold it yet and I expect all that increase to be lost if sold through a dealer, I love the car but never use it because an F430 spider IMHO is simply not a daily commute car, so I have been through a few daily snotters over the last couple of years to get round it. I want to stay with Ferrari ownership and want to use the car all the time and not be a garage queen, approx commute and daily use would be circa 5 or 6k per year tops unless I did an EU road trip which is on my life bucket list.
So I'm now thinking either low end 612 and keep the F430 spider or top end 612 OTO or 599 and sell the F430, the 458 V8 may be an outside option, I do need to have a test drive of all 3 cars in order to make an informed decision !!
I had no idea the 612's hit £45k but £65/70k seems cheap enough and there are far less 612's than F430's so I think their value should hold strong or am I missing something? like a crystal ball
So I'm now thinking either low end 612 and keep the F430 spider or top end 612 OTO or 599 and sell the F430, the 458 V8 may be an outside option, I do need to have a test drive of all 3 cars in order to make an informed decision !!
I had no idea the 612's hit £45k but £65/70k seems cheap enough and there are far less 612's than F430's so I think their value should hold strong or am I missing something? like a crystal ball
Bought a middle of the road highish miles 612 from the forecourt september 2012 and traded it in to a dealer october last year, after 4 years ownership I covered average 1000 miles a year, Servicing costs averaged £1000 per year, with all servicing costs in the 4 years I walked away with an increase value of 7.4% per year, not a bad investment at all.
Would I buy one today ??? Yes but only a top end one low miles keeper for the long term.
Would I buy one today ??? Yes but only a top end one low miles keeper for the long term.
thecook101 said:
TISPKJ said:
Problem with the 612 is that whilst it currently looks like the bargain in Ferrari world currently and almost the starter money F car, not long ago they were down to 45k, so for me 70k is not the bottom
Not sure I get your analysis, isn't the definition of bottoming out that it has depreciated all it is going to and is now rising again? So the cheapest examples sank as low as 45k but now average around 70k, that pretty much answers the OP's question. Yes there could be a crash that affects all Ferrari prices but I think the chances of picking up well spec'd NA Ferrari V12 for under 70k are rapidly thinning out. I bought in '15 at what I thought was the bottom of the market so yes I have an interest, but various sources indicate an upward trend and I'd challenge anyone to experience a 612 being used as intended and position it as a sub 70k car.Hard to argue that they will go much lower than current values when you compare to some of the other models.
I don't own one, but have been looking recently. I think the styling is really starting to age well, and look very nice. With a Ferrari V12 engine in the front I doubt they'll go much lower from here on in.
With regards to running costs don't forget a £10k bench mark from Chris Harris probably breaks down like this; £2k service costs - £8k in tyres.
With regards to running costs don't forget a £10k bench mark from Chris Harris probably breaks down like this; £2k service costs - £8k in tyres.
gt2-r said:
I don't own one, but have been looking recently. I think the styling is really starting to age well, and look very nice. With a Ferrari V12 engine in the front I doubt they'll go much lower from here on in.
With regards to running costs don't forget a £10k bench mark from Chris Harris probably breaks down like this; £2k service costs - £8k in tyres.
You have a very unique driving style if you go through 8 sets of tyres a year! Service is 1k-1.5kWith regards to running costs don't forget a £10k bench mark from Chris Harris probably breaks down like this; £2k service costs - £8k in tyres.
From experience typical running costs for V12 Ferraris for this era are 1k-3k a year.
I'd say they will drop from today's levels once the FF drops further - still has some way to go imo, which will depress values on driven "standard" 612s (the Sessanta, various OTO will trade at a premium). Warranty extension costs 3.5k or 4k euros pa and free servicing will run out - combine this with the fact that the cars are driven a lot more than in the past, I do not think they will be 6-digit cars forever - as a result the 612 will be pushed down.
At some point these types of cars also attract very few buyers imo - many people who drive a 4-seater non-vintage Ferrari are likely rich enough to buy a new one, which is a better daily driver proposition than a 10-15 year old car. Not that many enthusiasts buy 4-seater V12s as their weekend cars.
Currently, the prices are distorted by everything having increased substantially in value over the last few years, but once rates rise I think these cars will suddenly attract very little interest.
To drive and enjoy, I would not hesitate to recommend one - I love driving my big 4-seater 20k km per year all year round (it is a big & heavy car though, better test drive before buying) - but I would be very careful with thinking they will never drop from today's levels.
At some point these types of cars also attract very few buyers imo - many people who drive a 4-seater non-vintage Ferrari are likely rich enough to buy a new one, which is a better daily driver proposition than a 10-15 year old car. Not that many enthusiasts buy 4-seater V12s as their weekend cars.
Currently, the prices are distorted by everything having increased substantially in value over the last few years, but once rates rise I think these cars will suddenly attract very little interest.
To drive and enjoy, I would not hesitate to recommend one - I love driving my big 4-seater 20k km per year all year round (it is a big & heavy car though, better test drive before buying) - but I would be very careful with thinking they will never drop from today's levels.
CitySlicker said:
You have a very unique driving style if you go through 8 sets of tyres a year! Service is 1k-1.5k
From experience typical running costs for V12 Ferraris for this era are 1k-3k a year.
Hi CitySlicker. Agree. That was what my post meant. Chris Harris does indeed have a very unique driving style, hence the reference I made with the OP using him as a reference. I'm sure in reality his £10k wasn't tyres, but watch some youtube clips of Chris Harris F12 Portimao. :-)From experience typical running costs for V12 Ferraris for this era are 1k-3k a year.
gt2-r said:
CitySlicker said:
You have a very unique driving style if you go through 8 sets of tyres a year! Service is 1k-1.5k
From experience typical running costs for V12 Ferraris for this era are 1k-3k a year.
Hi CitySlicker. Agree. That was what my post meant. Chris Harris does indeed have a very unique driving style, hence the reference I made with the OP using him as a reference. I'm sure in reality his £10k wasn't tyres, but watch some youtube clips of Chris Harris F12 Portimao. :-)From experience typical running costs for V12 Ferraris for this era are 1k-3k a year.
- winter tyres c. 2k (this year summer tyres due, so this is pretty much an annual item)
- warranty c. 3.6k
- insurance c. 5.5k
- various small repairs/maintenance items c. 2k (eg new battery, broken parking sensor, new brake pads)
- service no cost
If you don't assume a minimum of 10-15% depreciation per annum on any of these cars in order to justify a purchase I think you are being dishonest with yourself.
On top of that liquidity for your car begins to drop off a cliff with each year that passes.If you have to sell quickly, you will have to discount by a significant margin, regardless of what you think it is "worth".
Ferrari didn't IPO its firm because it wants to stay small. It will have to grow to justify itself to shareholders which almost certainly means lots more models, lots more "Limited editions" and hence a lot more supply to the market.
Similarly McLaren aren't being shy about their desire to grow exponentially. I think they suggested 15 new models(?) including variants over the next cycle.
I think the market will have to take a tumble to absorb this supply, especially with the US starting to raise rates. The marginal buyer in the second hand market will be set at a level where the ability to afford the depreciation and ownership costs kicks in.
There appear to be far too many people buying to hopefully catch the next big investment and therefore end up hiding the car in the garage frightened to lose any value. Pointless.
On top of that liquidity for your car begins to drop off a cliff with each year that passes.If you have to sell quickly, you will have to discount by a significant margin, regardless of what you think it is "worth".
Ferrari didn't IPO its firm because it wants to stay small. It will have to grow to justify itself to shareholders which almost certainly means lots more models, lots more "Limited editions" and hence a lot more supply to the market.
Similarly McLaren aren't being shy about their desire to grow exponentially. I think they suggested 15 new models(?) including variants over the next cycle.
I think the market will have to take a tumble to absorb this supply, especially with the US starting to raise rates. The marginal buyer in the second hand market will be set at a level where the ability to afford the depreciation and ownership costs kicks in.
There appear to be far too many people buying to hopefully catch the next big investment and therefore end up hiding the car in the garage frightened to lose any value. Pointless.
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