I8 values in free fall....Why?

I8 values in free fall....Why?

Author
Discussion

culminator

Original Poster:

576 posts

208 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
I love the idea of an i8, in fact I think I've convinced myself to buy a used one in the next 6 months as their values seem to have taken a big hit in the last year. Why is that? I was talking to a main dealers mater tech the other day and he said they are just not selling any, new or used and he had 4 new cars in stock.

Have new I8 sales really fallen off a cliff? Are people concerned that the current version will be very out of date as soon as the next iteration is launched?

Helicopter123

8,831 posts

155 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
culminator said:
I love the idea of an i8, in fact I think I've convinced myself to buy a used one in the next 6 months as their values seem to have taken a big hit in the last year. Why is that? I was talking to a main dealers mater tech the other day and he said they are just not selling any, new or used and he had 4 new cars in stock.

Have new I8 sales really fallen off a cliff? Are people concerned that the current version will be very out of date as soon as the next iteration is launched?
Technology evolving fast. Although cutting edge now, these will be obsolete quite soon.

MitchT

15,788 posts

208 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
It's like an iPhone. There'll be a better one along every year and within a few years it'll be virtually unusable. I think these cars will be better suited to a 'subscription' type ownership model where you pay so much per month and can upgrade every couple of years.

RDMcG

19,093 posts

206 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
I loved the look of the i8 and was eager to drive it. Had many BMWs in the past before going the Porshe route and was interested in the technical direction. Had also driven the quite exciting Tesla S

I was disappointed.

- Stull can't get my head around the artificial engine sound.
- interior designed to be lightweight felt cheap
-doors make access awkward
- drive competently but no visceral excitement.

I did not approach the car with any kind of negative bias beforehand As I had done with the Tesla,which I assumed I would hate but I left it with no regret.

TooLateForAName

4,725 posts

183 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
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Well they are very nice looking but they are not in any sensible way an EV and are damned expensive.

They are basically a toy. If you want a sports/GT there are better and cheaper choices. If you want an EV you wouldn't consider it anyway.

I think they look great but they seem pointless to me.

TurboHatchback

4,151 posts

152 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
Well if I was to take a guess:
  • It's an 'eco' car sold on the premise of 100+mpg that manages 30mpg in real world usage. Who wants a 3 cylinder hybrid supercar when they could have a proper engine that matches or beats the economy and emissions?
  • IMHO it doesn't look great though obviously this is entirely subjective. Two seat mid engined supercars should give you the wibble to look at and the i8 just doesn't for me.
  • It's selling into a rather strange market, rich folk with money to burn but who care about economy and emissions (or like to be seen to care). I imagine that market has now been seduced into buying Teslas and the like whereas the folk who didn't give a toss about CO2 emissions will still be buying expensive noisy cars with V8s and V12s in.

nbetts

1,455 posts

228 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
I have a theory as to why these are in a price 'freefall' and stick with me here.

Firstly, I love the i8, I have driven one and whilst some of the comments about the feel of the drive I acknowledge, there is no denying it is a bloody good sports car. The low centre of gravity and the electrically assisted grunt is really something to behold.

Anyway, back to the decline in prices. We are approaching the 2 years since these hit UK streets... the real decline of the prices I reckon will really come apparent in Q3/Q4 of this year when all the 2-year lease deals that I assume most of these cars were bought on (my assumption is based around small private companies buying them in this manner for tax efficiency purposes) will be coming to an end - and the i8 market will be flooded.

I reckon, these will get to 50-60k - and then at that price point they will hold. They will hold because at that price (50-60k) they are phenomenally good value and an alternative, albeit not as competent, to a Porsche 911

Currently and I am speaking from my own perspective here - I am not sure I could walk past a line of 911 GTS's and 997 Gen 2 Turbo's and choose the i8 at around 80k

The i8 is revolutionary and I would be proud to own one and one day I hope I will - but I think they will reach 50-60k and stay there - In summary there is so much good completion in the market place at that price point (circa 100k) and the BMW only really wiped the floor with the competition when it comes to funding the car due to efficiency of taxation to the leaseholder/owner.

That is just what I think anyway.

MitchT

15,788 posts

208 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
I love the i8 and I'd have one in a heartbeat if I either A: had money to burn, or B: someone else was paying for it. The issue I have with it is best described by going totally off topic and describing my iPhone situation.
  • I have an iPhone 4S running iOS7.
  • I'm falling behind because iOS7 doesn't support of lot of the things I need to be 'current'.
  • I don't want to upgrade to iOS8 because it was rubbish.
  • I don't want to upgrade to iOS9 because, while it's better than iOS8, my phone would still struggle with it.
  • I also don't want to upgrade to iOS9 because my phone would no longer sync with my iTunes which is v11.4. I need 12.3 to sync with an iOS9 device.
  • I can't upgrade to iTunes 12.3 without first upgrading my Mac from OSX 10.6.8 to OSX 10.8.4 or later.
  • I don't want to upgrade my Mac to OSX 10.8.4 or later because it's an old machine which, I'm told, runs best on OSX 10.6.8 and struggles with later operating systems.
So, the only way to have iOS9 on my existing iPhone, or to have a new iPhone, is to buy a a new Mac ... or break the relationship that exists between phone phone and my computer, which I don't want to as I like the seamless integration.

Now, imagine being in this kind of pickle with your car two to three years after paying £100k for it. No thanks!

The only hope is that a new breed of independents emerge who are sufficiently software savvy to provide ongoing support for these vehicles after the manufacturer stops.

MrOrange

2,031 posts

252 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
I have a theory on this, too.

Most i8 purchasers are leveraging the short-term tax windfall that only occurs when you buy it brand new. Including dealer/BMW discounts, gov subsidy and tax write down this equates to a nominal discount of 30 to 55k. So, in general, you need to knock a lot more than 30k off the new price to make it attractive as a second-hand proposition.

kiethton

13,883 posts

179 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
One thing that has put me off the I8 (quite childishly) was pointed out by a friend, once seen you can't not see it...

Look at a direct rear picture, it looks like it's stting out a Porsche 911 between the raised bits - the bumper shape, lights, number plate recess...everything

purpleperil

1,212 posts

283 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
MrOrange said:
I have a theory on this, too.

Most i8 purchasers are leveraging the short-term tax windfall that only occurs when you buy it brand new. Including dealer/BMW discounts, gov subsidy and tax write down this equates to a nominal discount of 30 to 55k. So, in general, you need to knock a lot more than 30k off the new price to make it attractive as a second-hand proposition.
l

Agreed, although I've bought (not leased) mine privately. Despite the assertion of falling values I don't see any difference to any other high end vehicle. I expect it to be worth around half of what I paid when I come to sell it in 3 years.

JiggyJaggy

1,449 posts

139 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
Agree with the notion these will drop to £50k within circa 12 months. They are a cool looking toy though. Something different to all of the other cars out there. I didn't and wouldn't have bought one at £100k when you can buy a MP4-12C, GT4 (even with premium) etc etc for the same money.

MrOrange

2,031 posts

252 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
JiggyJaggy said:
I didn't and wouldn't have bought one at £100k when you can buy a MP4-12C, GT4 (even with premium) etc etc for the same money.
This is interesting. Most (not all) purchasers are using the tax breaks/low BIK route to buy them so the actual real cost new is somewhere between £55 and £75k. It's such a tax-efficient vehicle (sic). In fact, if you finance it then it ends up costing (net) nothing for the first 2 years. I have ignored balancing charges on disposal for the sake of this argument as you can choose when to dispose and have flexibility on how that ensuing profit is allocated but may cost you as little £10k.

If you bought a regular performance ICE car you'd have to do that outside the company and incur 40%+ income taxation so a £100k car will actually cost £180k of gross profit which is circa 3 times the price of the i8

Quite frankly, the i8 at £110k ends up being a bit of a bargain if you run a company that can sustain the cost.

K2MDL

2,673 posts

218 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
purpleperil said:
Agreed, although I've bought (not leased) mine privately. Despite the assertion of falling values I don't see any difference to any other high end vehicle. I expect it to be worth around half of what I paid when I come to sell it in 3 years.
Totally agree Purple. I really chuckled at the comment "these will be obsolete soon" like it's some kind of 405-Line TV. What I find amusing reading posts on this thread is that most have not actually driven the car. I took the P1ss out of it when I first read the specs 3 years ago. Unfortunately, I told my car mad mates too and they remind me of such every time they see me. After buying one and seeing what I had overlooked, I had to eat humble pie.

What I totally missed when reading the details of the i8 was what it actually offered - as an alternative to the "real" sports cars I usually go for. Few of you will doubt it's looks, BMW actually produced a car that is so advanced in design detail that I doubt it will date and probably become a classic, albeit in 20-30 years time. This also goes for the interior. Beautifully finished and laid out with enough flair to get more than the approving nod from all that look in to the car. Quite how a poster thought it felt cheap and lightweight inside I have no idea either. Having owned 4 Conti-GT's the i8 is anything bar cheap inside. Still, each to their own.

Getting out of date like an iPhone? Sure there will be better and more battery efficient alternatives in the years to come, but if you can afford it, (which any i8 owner obviously can I guess), why not have it now? If you wait for the latest phone, laptop or TV you will never actually buy anything. The i8 isn't a throw away product.

Of course prices will come down, they always do. My 991 911 cost £98k new, after 3 years it was "worth" a lot less. A 911 is hardly futuristic in terms of an alternate approach to car design, especially in a sports car. You can of course compare the i8 with La Ferrari, a Porsche 918, new Honda NSX or even a McLaren P1 that use the same hybrid set-up at over four times the price, excluding the NSX which looks very tasty on paper and in the metal. Maybe those buyers should have waited too... Except they didn't need to or want to. Of course they will hold their value better than an i8, but look at the initial purchase price!

Don't knock it until you try it. At the moment the i8 is the only sports car offering what it does. I came very close to signing up for a new Tesla P85D - they are the same price of course but I don't want a big barge as lovely as it is. You want depreciation? Look at a P85S after 3 years! I've looked at i8 prices and they are not tumbling down. Of course they will loose a fair lump in the first 2-3 years. Name me a car that doesn't. All my 911's certainly did on resale. If you can't afford to lose money buying an expensive toy then don't buy one. Simples..... smile

I could post dozens of links to an i8 video review but this one isn't bad for anyone interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMpXwDiQjeI&in...


Edited by K2MDL on Sunday 31st January 22:01

purpleperil

1,212 posts

283 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
K2MDL said:
Lots of 'sensible' stuff about why new things invariably cost more than not so new things.
Don't know what they're worrying about TBH. Without the 'not so sensible' early adopters like us there wouldn't be the opportunity to buy these great cars at a bargain basement price 3 three years down the line? hehe

daemon

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
culminator said:
I love the idea of an i8, in fact I think I've convinced myself to buy a used one in the next 6 months as their values seem to have taken a big hit in the last year. Why is that? I was talking to a main dealers mater tech the other day and he said they are just not selling any, new or used and he had 4 new cars in stock.

Have new I8 sales really fallen off a cliff? Are people concerned that the current version will be very out of date as soon as the next iteration is launched?
Cheapest one on the approved used site is £75,595. Seems about right for a 2 year old, £100K car? Quite strong actually compared to some.

K2MDL

2,673 posts

218 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
Exactly Purple! And it also seems that Chris Harris, Steve Cropley, Jeremy Clarkson, Steve Sutcliffe are all wrong too. If you want to be first with new tech you usually pay the price. if it costs you more then so be it.

I also read in the latest TG New Cars Buyers Guide about the interior "... high quality cabin that, for all it's sweepingly futuristic design, still shows plenty of core BMW ergonomic sensibility. It's all quite wonderful, and very special".

Nuff said?

Edited by K2MDL on Saturday 30th January 19:16

Wilmslowboy

4,188 posts

205 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
daemon said:
Cheapest one on the approved used site is £75,595. Seems about right for a 2 year old, £100K car? Quite strong actually compared to some.
This ......

Typical £100k BMW/Merc after 2 years would be worth what £60k at best ?

daemon

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
MitchT said:
I think these cars will be better suited to a 'subscription' type ownership model where you pay so much per month and can upgrade every couple of years.
You mean like PCP or leasing? Thats how the bulk of new BMWs are sold anyway.

daemon

35,724 posts

196 months

Saturday 30th January 2016
quotequote all
culminator said:
I love the idea of an i8, in fact I think I've convinced myself to buy a used one in the next 6 months as their values seem to have taken a big hit in the last year. Why is that? I was talking to a main dealers mater tech the other day and he said they are just not selling any, new or used and he had 4 new cars in stock.

Have new I8 sales really fallen off a cliff? Are people concerned that the current version will be very out of date as soon as the next iteration is launched?
If you're concerned about resale in a few years time - and i would be too - get them to price you up 2 or 3 year PCP deal. Apart from anything it will give you a good indication of where BMW see prices going, plus if you did take up a PCP deal, then you know the worst case scenario with value and can hand it back.