So who is getting a Model 3?
Discussion
JonV8V said:
teabelly said:
From the specs I can see with a probable price of £30k and likely 200 mile range it's the only decent EV proposition out there. Every other falls short. Some shorter than others.
Would having a model 3 at £30k mean the rest of the EV market is going to have to slash prices to compete? I'd think the i3 is dead in the water at its current price point.
The model 3 is nearly 2 years from reaching the UK. By then 200 miles will be no big deal - the i3 is about to get a bigger battery which with range extended is likely to make 200 miles viable, and thats before a further year of developments.Would having a model 3 at £30k mean the rest of the EV market is going to have to slash prices to compete? I'd think the i3 is dead in the water at its current price point.
Also bear in mind that tesla, like all manufacturers so, are playing the marketing game... "the model 3, from 30k will have a range up to 200 miles" which actually means the 30k car won't do 200 miles and won't be allowed to use the super chargers, but the 45k car will..". Why would they make a car very similar to the S70 that costs 20k less?
dave_s13 said:
p1stonhead said:
Superchargers help but I happen to live smack bang at the junction of the M25 and M23 right in the big square where none of them are!
Are they just tesla supercharger points then?There must be a smattering of ecotricity fast chargers you could use.
edit - just checked zap-map - you are indeed in a bit of a rapid charger black hole!
Edited by dave_s13 on Tuesday 1st March 09:35
Aren't there free chademo at - pease pottage and cobham and clacket lane - up to 140 miles per hour charging
JonV8V said:
The model 3 is nearly 2 years from reaching the UK. By then 200 miles will be no big deal - the i3 is about to get a bigger battery which with range extended is likely to make 200 miles viable, and thats before a further year of developments.
Also bear in mind that tesla, like all manufacturers so, are playing the marketing game... "the model 3, from 30k will have a range up to 200 miles" which actually means the 30k car won't do 200 miles and won't be allowed to use the super chargers, but the 45k car will..". Why would they make a car very similar to the S70 that costs 20k less?
Because I'd think Mr Musk realises if they want the EV to actually be a reality and not just some puffery and novelty for a few you have to produce a £30k realistic 200 mile range car to achieve any kind of numbers. The model 3 is noticeably smaller and in a different segment anyway so you can't really aim to produce it at near bottom level S money. It has to be significantly cheaper. Also bear in mind that tesla, like all manufacturers so, are playing the marketing game... "the model 3, from 30k will have a range up to 200 miles" which actually means the 30k car won't do 200 miles and won't be allowed to use the super chargers, but the 45k car will..". Why would they make a car very similar to the S70 that costs 20k less?
I'd think the model 3 would have free supercharger access but probably more limited eg so many charges per year or unlimited if you pay a monthly sub. It depends on how it sells too and how the supercharger infrastructure expands as to what is sustainable in the long term.
teabelly said:
Because I'd think Mr Musk realises if they want the EV to actually be a reality and not just some puffery and novelty for a few you have to produce a £30k realistic 200 mile range car to achieve any kind of numbers. The model 3 is noticeably smaller and in a different segment anyway so you can't really aim to produce it at near bottom level S money. It has to be significantly cheaper.
I'd think the model 3 would have free supercharger access but probably more limited eg so many charges per year or unlimited if you pay a monthly sub. It depends on how it sells too and how the supercharger infrastructure expands as to what is sustainable in the long term.
Elon has a history of over promising, especially from a time scale perspective. Auto pilot was a year late. The performance of the P85D was a fudge. The battery capacity of the 85 cars is a fudge.. its really on an 81, the motor power was a fudge - it has a usable number between 400 and 500hp not 760 odd.. He sails very close to the wind at times and has more than one law suit going on around the world. I'd think the model 3 would have free supercharger access but probably more limited eg so many charges per year or unlimited if you pay a monthly sub. It depends on how it sells too and how the supercharger infrastructure expands as to what is sustainable in the long term.
I'm sure he'd allow SC access, for a price, on the 30k model. My point was that at 30k, you won't get all the spec thats listed, far from it, my hunch is £30k will be a 50 battery (remember the battery is a significant size and weight at the moment and you simply can't easily build a smaller car with a big battery), cloth seats, no super charger. 0-60 in over 6 seconds, single motor drive. Some will be happy with that but by then the competition will be close.
JonV8V said:
Elon has a history of over promising, especially from a time scale perspective. Auto pilot was a year late. The performance of the P85D was a fudge. The battery capacity of the 85 cars is a fudge.. its really on an 81, the motor power was a fudge - it has a usable number between 400 and 500hp not 760 odd.. He sails very close to the wind at times and has more than one law suit going on around the world.
Actually the 'sustained' power output of a Model S is apprently around 100bhp. But it only requires roughly 40bhp to maintain 100mph in a Model S so for real life driving it's not really important.http://m.caranddriver.com/features/drag-queens-aer...
As a Model S owner, and someone who will likely get a Model 3 as well, I would expect the following:
- The base car will be as little as £25,000 I reckon, to capitalise on the company car market. Company car users will be very keen to benefit from the reduced BIK, and typically middle-management are capped at a base-price of £25k plus a few options.
- All other models will be dual motor (AWD) cars, as they offer more range than single motor cars, and more performance typically.
- The dual motor upgrade for the RWD base model will keep the overall cost below £30,000, for the same company car reasons as point one.
- Range should be similar to the low and mid-range Model S vehicles, but bear in mind Model S is now only available in 70 and 90kwH battery formats (so 40, 60 and 85 have all disappeared) I would expect just two battery variants for the Model 3, too.
- Model 3 will not get all the same level of technology as Model S and Model X; this will I feel, be the primary differentiator between these vehicles and the Model 3. Range will likely be as I said, and performance will be comparable to Model S I reckon.
Deposit going down later this month all being well, let's see!
- The base car will be as little as £25,000 I reckon, to capitalise on the company car market. Company car users will be very keen to benefit from the reduced BIK, and typically middle-management are capped at a base-price of £25k plus a few options.
- All other models will be dual motor (AWD) cars, as they offer more range than single motor cars, and more performance typically.
- The dual motor upgrade for the RWD base model will keep the overall cost below £30,000, for the same company car reasons as point one.
- Range should be similar to the low and mid-range Model S vehicles, but bear in mind Model S is now only available in 70 and 90kwH battery formats (so 40, 60 and 85 have all disappeared) I would expect just two battery variants for the Model 3, too.
- Model 3 will not get all the same level of technology as Model S and Model X; this will I feel, be the primary differentiator between these vehicles and the Model 3. Range will likely be as I said, and performance will be comparable to Model S I reckon.
Deposit going down later this month all being well, let's see!
JonV8V said:
What advantage do you think there is putting a deposit down on a car you've no real details of and won't be delivered for probably 2 years?
To get one as soon as they become available, it should be about the time to change one of the other cars anyway by then, and wouldn't want to have to join a waiting list. Can always get it refunded, up to a point.skilly1 said:
Can't see it killing off the i3. The fantastic option of the petrol back-up for me is the deal maker. Now done 45k and never had range anxiety. Unless another manufacture puts this option in I will be staying Bmw.
I don't there was ever any question of that. I was just reading a quote from McLaren about the next 'P1' being all electric and they said they next one would hybrid as battery tech is not improving as quickly as first thought.
Undirection said:
skilly1 said:
Can't see it killing off the i3. The fantastic option of the petrol back-up for me is the deal maker. Now done 45k and never had range anxiety. Unless another manufacture puts this option in I will be staying Bmw.
I don't there was ever any question of that. I was just reading a quote from McLaren about the next 'P1' being all electric and they said they next one would hybrid as battery tech is not improving as quickly as first thought.
skilly1 said:
Undirection said:
skilly1 said:
Can't see it killing off the i3. The fantastic option of the petrol back-up for me is the deal maker. Now done 45k and never had range anxiety. Unless another manufacture puts this option in I will be staying Bmw.
I don't there was ever any question of that. I was just reading a quote from McLaren about the next 'P1' being all electric and they said they next one would hybrid as battery tech is not improving as quickly as first thought.
200 miles is probably the sweet point. Let's say with that you want a break every 2 - 3 hours this range gives you that plus the opportunity to fast charge.
The i3 is a different car and very different proposition to a model 3. It's much more intended as a city car. It focuses on efficiency via light weight (it's Exige sort of weight) rather than a large battery. I would hope that BMW try and take an early lead and install the 150Kw - compatible CCS charger in it, beating Audi to market. 50% better range + 3x faster charging would I think keep it in the game.
For the model 3 I'm expecting the cheapest version to be pretty basic. I'm certainly expecting Supercharge access to be an option like it was for early Model S cars. Put a few choice options of a 3 and I suspect you might still be looking at GBP 50 - 60k
pherlopolus said:
Rick101 said:
Tesla finance costs seem quite high. Are lease deals any better?
Where do you think the Model 3 will come in on a lease if it is a 30K car?
Be nice if it was sub £300...Where do you think the Model 3 will come in on a lease if it is a 30K car?
Purchase price new: £15,000
Trade value at 2 yrs : £3000
That's a 12,000 spread so over 2 years you'd be talking over £500/month!!
To my mind it all hinges on how buoyant the 2nd hand EV market is and it's not really an established one yet. Do people actually buy 2nd hand Tesla's out of warranty?
Rick101 said:
Tesla finance costs seem quite high. Are lease deals any better?
Finance / Lease costs are high because Tesla don't do any manufacture 'contributions'. It's actually cheaper to buy cash and than sell back to Tesla after 2-3 years than to go lease. Tesla are currently buying back cars using a pre-defined formula which I understand works out at roughly 50% at 3 years. A basic Model S will cost you £30K on PCP over 3 years if you choose to return the car at the end of the deal. Unless you happy to throw away £10K a year on finance costs, buying used makes much more sense. There's currently a 85kWh S on for £46K, even if that halves in value in 3 years time, your still £7K better off interms of £ lost to deprecation.
I'll be putting down a deposit as long as it doesn't turn out totally disgusting.
I do have a slight suspicion that it may be cheaper than some people think - possibly from £25k. I am also pretty sure that no variant will have a practical range less than 200 miles and some will have considerably more.
Dealing with Tesla has been a pleasure so far. I had a test drive about 18 months ago where I expressed up front that I had no interest in an 'S' but was waiting for a '3' - this was no problem at all and we shook hands at the end of the drive agreeing to get back in touch when the 3 was going to launch. Since then, nothing, until a couple of days ago when I got a very polite call asking if I was still interested and might be placing a deposit on the 31st (in store) or on the 1st April (online). Much better (in my experience) of conventional dealers.
I do have a slight suspicion that it may be cheaper than some people think - possibly from £25k. I am also pretty sure that no variant will have a practical range less than 200 miles and some will have considerably more.
Dealing with Tesla has been a pleasure so far. I had a test drive about 18 months ago where I expressed up front that I had no interest in an 'S' but was waiting for a '3' - this was no problem at all and we shook hands at the end of the drive agreeing to get back in touch when the 3 was going to launch. Since then, nothing, until a couple of days ago when I got a very polite call asking if I was still interested and might be placing a deposit on the 31st (in store) or on the 1st April (online). Much better (in my experience) of conventional dealers.
I don't want to knock them too much but once you place your order it can be a different experience - mainly due to growing pains rather than policy but there are design issues too
- unable to tell you what cables will arrive with the car. People have spent £170 on a cable only go be then to find the car came with it.
- delivery dates moving around
- the miscommunication on spec of the car and the obsession with 0-60 times the car can't do
- the airport parking that seems to change daily on what you can really have and at which airports
- telling you you can use back entrances at service stations to get across to super chargers but won't put it in writing
- body panel availability coupled with increasing numbers of accidents - cars on the road for months and some insurance premiums rocketing
- cars do break down, reliability is not brilliant (depends on your definition of reliability but frequent reboots of the software, and a dash that's full of creaks and leather wearing noticeably after 6k miles)
- depending where you live, very variable support
- software updates that have buggered up things like heating that was fine before
- sat Nav that has a sense of humour
- the interior finish is way down compared to 70k+ Audi, BMW, jag, merc etc.
They're very different in lots of ways compared to the mainstream, not all of them good, a lot of stuff is though, but I frequently get asked if I'm pleased with it or should they buy one and I can never give an easy answer.
Putting it another way, I describe it as a 40k car stuck to a 30k battery. If, and it's big if, one of the big boys took one of their cars and stuck the tesla drive train and battery on it they'd be laughing.
- unable to tell you what cables will arrive with the car. People have spent £170 on a cable only go be then to find the car came with it.
- delivery dates moving around
- the miscommunication on spec of the car and the obsession with 0-60 times the car can't do
- the airport parking that seems to change daily on what you can really have and at which airports
- telling you you can use back entrances at service stations to get across to super chargers but won't put it in writing
- body panel availability coupled with increasing numbers of accidents - cars on the road for months and some insurance premiums rocketing
- cars do break down, reliability is not brilliant (depends on your definition of reliability but frequent reboots of the software, and a dash that's full of creaks and leather wearing noticeably after 6k miles)
- depending where you live, very variable support
- software updates that have buggered up things like heating that was fine before
- sat Nav that has a sense of humour
- the interior finish is way down compared to 70k+ Audi, BMW, jag, merc etc.
They're very different in lots of ways compared to the mainstream, not all of them good, a lot of stuff is though, but I frequently get asked if I'm pleased with it or should they buy one and I can never give an easy answer.
Putting it another way, I describe it as a 40k car stuck to a 30k battery. If, and it's big if, one of the big boys took one of their cars and stuck the tesla drive train and battery on it they'd be laughing.
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