Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

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RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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DonkeyApple please just shut the fk up about something you have no idea about and leave it to those who are actually doing it.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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It’s great they’re working on driverless and AI but it’s 20 years or more away before it works as it should. I can think of many situations where a driverless car or cab would be incapable of dealing with human passenger requests, let alone safe passage.

DonkeyApple

54,919 posts

168 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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RobDickinson said:
DonkeyApple please just shut the fk up about something you have no idea about and leave it to those who are actually doing it.
Thank you for the above links. Don’t try and silence the debate because it doesn’t suit your agenda. It’s the act of a fool. Despite your initial pretence that you did not comprehend what was being talked about it transpires that you do. That really is low brow behaviour. So I won’t ‘shut the fk up’ until you stop lying and spreading propaganda and join the debate at a more mature and intellectual level. wink

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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DonkeyApple said:
How are the people working on the AP systems factoring in a car’s response to a pedestrian stepping out in front of it?

For me this is the fundamental issue for urban use as I can see how they can program a system with enough variables to be better than the average driver on the open road but I cannot fathom how it can drive across many global cities if the fear of harm is removed.

There seems to be a cultural, social and even political hurdle within humanity that seems to be being ignored.

All papers on the subject discuss how AI will cope better than humans in accidental situations but not about deliberate.
This. This is meaningless drivel. It doesnt make sense. You dont make sense, you have zero clue as to what work is being done on this. Billions is being spent on it. Waymo has been doing this for near 10 years.

Yet all you can come up with is that drivel and they might not have thought about something?

EddieSteadyGo

11,717 posts

202 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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Burwood said:
It’s great they’re working on driverless and AI but it’s 20 years or more away before it works as it should. I can think of many situations where a driverless car or cab would be incapable of dealing with human passenger requests, let alone safe passage.
I agree - asking a car to self drive safely on our often haphazard and poorly designed roads would be a nightmare task. The benefits to society though of getting it right are massive (in the long term).

Personally I don't think one manufacturer is going to be able to come up with a solution. I would like to see an approach starting with the simplest of roads - motorways.

There should be an integrated approach combining three factors;

Each car should have its own sensors. However, a standard for both the sensor type and position should be set by regulation to ensure compatibility in the data collected.

Each car should be designed to communicate with other cars on the same road, sharing information on obstacles, hazards, road conditions, issues etc. Because the sensor data would be standardised, the information could be shared and interpreted in a standard way.

Finally the roadway should have some kind of sensor system to communicate with road and the cars.

This way you can have a triangular information flow between the vehicle, the road and other road users. This approach would likely alleviate the need for LIDAR sensors.

Once the motorways had become truly "smart", you could then start to adapt other more complicated roads. It still might take 20 years to get to a situation where the vast majority of roads allowed autonomous driving, but I think this approach would be more likely to be successful.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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RobDickinson said:
DonkeyApple said:
How are the people working on the AP systems factoring in a car’s response to a pedestrian stepping out in front of it?

For me this is the fundamental issue for urban use as I can see how they can program a system with enough variables to be better than the average driver on the open road but I cannot fathom how it can drive across many global cities if the fear of harm is removed.

There seems to be a cultural, social and even political hurdle within humanity that seems to be being ignored.

All papers on the subject discuss how AI will cope better than humans in accidental situations but not about deliberate.
This. This is meaningless drivel. It doesnt make sense. You dont make sense, you have zero clue as to what work is being done on this. Billions is being spent on it. Waymo has been doing this for near 10 years.

Yet all you can come up with is that drivel and they might not have thought about something?
Isn’t the issue ‘fringe cases’ that which there is no data available with which to teach the AI. These cases being infinite. I can see a use shuttling between stations, terminals etc where they are segregated from other road users. Like a train essentially. Still, it’s a very long way off Rob. You and I will be very old bds by then smile

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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EddieSteadyGo said:
I agree - asking a car to self drive safely on our often haphazard and poorly designed roads would be a nightmare task.
That I can agree with! Some of the roads I have driven in the UK, Devon etc are very tight and tricky and would be a massive edge case compared to your typical US city grid.

Again it might be a long time until cars can do that, and 20 years until they can drive everywhere like agood human driver? perhaps. I dont think thats the short term aim of most systems now though.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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Burwood said:
You and I will be very old bds by then smile
I'm already an old bd. biggrin I expect FSD to work on main highways and classic city streets within a few years, especially outside of the non planned roads of the UK. There are few paved roads in my home city I think a decent FSD car would struggle with.

Its primarily going to be a tool to remove motorway cruising chores and commutes at least at first.

btw teslas already share data and I am sure waymo fleet does similar though I doubt there is any compatibility.

I remember talk of inter car communication protocols not sure if anyone is implementing them though

Not FSD/AI but yes already played ith for a log time..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicular_communicat...

dukeboy749r

2,536 posts

209 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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There may be two 'elephant in the room' issues though:

1) I, as a human being, still prefer to do most of the things in my life - agreed a degree of automation is acceptable, welcome even, but not at the expense of me deciding and being, you know 'spontaneous'.

2) Since email, bank/credit cards, most IT of things can/already are/may well be hacked - I am even less sure I'd welcome my car being somewhat (if not totally reliant) on external network factors and the (even remote) chance that someone else decides to throw in a glitch.

RJG46

980 posts

67 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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DonkeyApple said:
I suspect they are scrapping it because as an incentive it’s no longer needed. The ULEZ for starters means that most new cars bought in or near London are likely to be hybrids.
Why? My fifteen year old 2 litre Petrol tipmobile will be unaffected by the ULEZ. Plenty of 8/10 year old Euro 6 diesels on the used market by then and most new ICE cars will still be massively cheaper than any Hybrid.

I see people carrying on pretty much as they are.

Edited by RJG46 on Wednesday 17th October 12:34

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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RJG46 said:
DonkeyApple said:
I suspect they are scrapping it because as an incentive it’s no longer needed. The ULEZ for starters means that most new cars bought in or near London are likely to be hybrids.
Why? My fifteen year old 2 litre Petrol tipmobile will be unaffected by the ULEZ. Plenty of 8/10 year old Euro 6 diesels on the used market by then and most new ICE cars will still be massively cheaper than any Hybrid.

I see people carrying on pretty much as they are.

Edited by RJG46 on Wednesday 17th October 12:34
Because if ULEZ is successful, the emmissions will drop a but, but they will want them to drop even more. And ULEZ2 will exclude more

OverSteery

3,586 posts

230 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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RobDickinson said:
I'm already an old bd. biggrin I expect FSD to work on main highways and classic city streets within a few years, especially outside of the non planned roads of the UK. There are few paved roads in my home city I think a decent FSD car would struggle with.

Its primarily going to be a tool to remove motorway cruising chores and commutes at least at first.

btw teslas already share data and I am sure waymo fleet does similar though I doubt there is any compatibility.

I remember talk of inter car communication protocols not sure if anyone is implementing them though

Not FSD/AI but yes already played ith for a log time..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicular_communicat...
I am interested to hear that Tesla already shares data - I imagine that means they log data and return it to 'Base'? I can see how useful that will be to development and even building detailed maps.

It would be massively helpful for autonomous driving for individual cars to share location data with others in real time. Whilst the concept of all cars broadcasting a low power signal giving their location seem straightforward, the challenges must be considerable - and include hacking/sabotage protection (which might be the most difficult of all to overcome).

I am just randomly musing, does anybody know if there are plans to share peer-to-peer data?

zubzob

721 posts

78 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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The China factory looks to be taking shape.


Mr2Mike

20,143 posts

254 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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RobDickinson said:
This. This is meaningless drivel. It doesnt make sense. You dont make sense, you have zero clue as to what work is being done on this. Billions is being spent on it. Waymo has been doing this for near 10 years.

Yet all you can come up with is that drivel and they might not have thought about something?
So what is the solution they are implementing? DonkeyApple asked the question and you attack him for it, but then fail to provide a single answer apart from a bit of vague hand waving. Poor form.

CABC

5,528 posts

100 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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Mr2Mike said:
RobDickinson said:
This. This is meaningless drivel. It doesnt make sense. You dont make sense, you have zero clue as to what work is being done on this. Billions is being spent on it. Waymo has been doing this for near 10 years.

Yet all you can come up with is that drivel and they might not have thought about something?
So what is the solution they are implementing? DonkeyApple asked the question and you attack him for it, but then fail to provide a single answer apart from a bit of vague hand waving. Poor form.
good result to reach over 100 pages before the thread hit the gutter though. Rob, poor form.

No AI is going to mitigate against someone jumping in front of a car, unless 10mph is max speed. so they'll be a combination of law and many camera angles to apportion liability. The law will have to accommodate people deliberately jumping out to provoke emergency braking too, bit like shouting "fire" in a theatre.

AP needs testing in Switzerland. They have a habit of walking along, eyes forward, and then suddenly turning 90 degrees by a pedestrian crossing as though to catch a driver out.

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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Details of the sec settlement filed as an 8-k

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/73f2d694-2b20-43f...

SEC Settlement
On October 16, 2018, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (the “Court”) entered a final judgment approving the terms of a settlement filed with the Court on September 29, 2018, in connection with the action taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “Commission”) relating to Elon Musk’s prior consideration of a take-private proposal for Tesla. As part of the settlement, there will be no restriction on Elon’s ability to continue to serve as Tesla’s CEO and there will also be no restriction on Elon’s ability to serve as a director on Tesla’s Board of Directors (the “Board”). Additionally, without admitting or denying any of the SEC’s allegations, Tesla and Elon agreed as part of the settlement to, among other things, the following:
• Tesla and Elon will each pay a civil penalty of $20 million.
• Within 45 days of the filing of the settlement documents, Elon will resign as Chairman of the Board, with an independent director replacing him as Chairman. In three years, the Board will be able to reappoint Elon to resume the role of Chairman of the Board if such reappointment is approved by a majority vote of stockholders at such time.
• Within 90 days of the filing of the settlement documents, Tesla will:
• Appoint two additional independent directors to the Board.
• Create a permanent Board committee of independent directors whose membership and charter will be subject to approval by the Staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Commission (the “Staff”) and which will be charged with overseeing: (i) the implementation of the terms of the settlement; (ii) controls governing Tesla’s and its management’s public statements regarding Tesla; and (iii) review and resolution of human resources issues or conflict of interest issues involving Tesla’s management.
• Further enhance controls with respect to Elon’s public communications regarding Tesla and to pre-approve any such written communications that contain, or reasonably could contain, information material to Tesla or its stockholders.
• Employ or designate from among its existing personnel an experienced securities lawyer, subject to approval by the Staff, to advise on securities issues relating to Tesla and to ensure compliance with Tesla’s disclosure policy and controls, including by reviewing management’s public communications in a manner that is consistent with such policy and controls.
CEO Investment
Separate and apart from the settlement, Elon has notified Tesla that he intends to purchase from Tesla, and Tesla expects that it will issue and sell to Elon, $20 million of Tesla’s common stock during the next open trading window at the then-current market price.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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My revenue estimate in a recent article was $6.78 billion for Q3. This is slightly higher than my $6.5 billion estimate last May.

That's about a $2.8 billion increase over Q2. In Q2 Tesla lost about $700 million so that the revenue growth is about $2.1 billion greater than is needed to reach break even based on Q2 spending. The staffing hasn't changed dramatically, though the COGS will certainly be higher due to the larger volume of cars sold.

If Tesla managed to improve efficiency such that spending in Q3 grew less than about $2 billion, then a profit should be reported. Based on my calculations and things I've read I think a net profit around $300 million should be close to what's reported in the upcoming earnings call.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4211882-tesla...

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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CABC said:
No AI is going to mitigate against someone jumping in front of a car.
No of course it won't. How could it? If people suddenly decide to leap in from of fast moving vehicles that's their problem we already have laws to deal with that.

Fsd just needs to be safer than average human driver. People are not getting better or safer, ai will.

zubzob

721 posts

78 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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Does FSD advantage have huge bearing on Tesla's likelihood to survive? Seems to me, it's a bit of gloss to get you interested, but you buy for other reasons.

Seems much more crucial to Uber's success. Are they going public?

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 17th October 2018
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It's certainly a liability for Tesla as they've already sold something they don't yet have. They've already been forced to refund some money and the updated hardware won't be free to hand out. I don't see it being a huge deal either way.
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