Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Smiljan]

jsf said:

You can fit a preheater to an ICE car, when i was in -30C in Canada it was what everyone did.

Or heated seats and a quickclear windscreen. Pre-heating in an EV is pretty good when it works though.

[Heres Johnny]

Smiljan said:

Has the first boatload of Model 3's cleared the Panama Canal yet? Supposed to be 3000 cars on their way to Zeebrugge in time for mid February deliveries.

Ignore that, I've found the ship. Still working its way through Panama

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9707015

Edited by Smiljan on Monday 21st January 11:07

They've flown the first batch in, there have been a number of pictures posted of transporters leaving Schiphol - can't be a cheap way of doing it but Musk likes to make the headlines.

[Krikkit]

jsf said:

Burwood said:

There is no question that the changes at Tesla HQ are driven by the need to be more efficient. They see the German forces gathering on the horizon. It's all good for the consumer. I don't want Tesla to fail. I want them to push their competitors to make the best product they can for the money.

10.30am and it's risen to -1 C. The diesel has been rattling away for 15 mins on the drive before I brave the cold Looking forward to preheating next winter

You can fit a preheater to an ICE car, when i was in -30C in Canada it was what everyone did.

That assumes there's room to put one in of course - fine in a huge pickup truck or SUV from Canada, but a bit difficult to fit to a modern Focus etc as the packaging is so tight.

[Heres Johnny]

Krikkit said:

That assumes there's room to put one in of course - fine in a huge pickup truck or SUV from Canada, but a bit difficult to fit to a modern Focus etc as the packaging is so tight.

Take a look...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Engine-Block-Heater-Ele...

Albeit this one runs off the mains the heating element isn't enormous.

[Burwood]

Smiljan said:

jsf said:

You can fit a preheater to an ICE car, when i was in -30C in Canada it was what everyone did.

Or heated seats and a quickclear windscreen. Pre-heating in an EV is pretty good when it works though.

I have seated seat. They take a good 5 minutes to warm up.

[Smiljan]

That's not normal for a Tesla is it? The ones I've driven are toasty warm really quickly.

[DonkeyApple]

Heres Johnny said:

They've flown the first batch in, there have been a number of pictures posted of transporters leaving Schiphol - can't be a cheap way of doing it but Musk likes to make the headlines.

A very eco friendly way to transport cars!

[DonkeyApple]

Krikkit said:

jsf said:

Burwood said:

There is no question that the changes at Tesla HQ are driven by the need to be more efficient. They see the German forces gathering on the horizon. It's all good for the consumer. I don't want Tesla to fail. I want them to push their competitors to make the best product they can for the money.

10.30am and it's risen to -1 C. The diesel has been rattling away for 15 mins on the drive before I brave the cold Looking forward to preheating next winter

You can fit a preheater to an ICE car, when i was in -30C in Canada it was what everyone did.

That assumes there's room to put one in of course - fine in a huge pickup truck or SUV from Canada, but a bit difficult to fit to a modern Focus etc as the packaging is so tight.

It does highlight the ecofarce of it all though, that we as humans will rush to consume energy rather than being a little bit chilly for a few minutes in the morning.

[Witchfinder]

Burwood said:

There is no question that the changes at Tesla HQ are driven by the need to be more efficient. They see the German forces gathering on the horizon.

It's not the Germans they need to worry about, it's the Chinese.

[Toaster]

Heres Johnny said:

Krikkit said:

That assumes there's room to put one in of course - fine in a huge pickup truck or SUV from Canada, but a bit difficult to fit to a modern Focus etc as the packaging is so tight.

Take a look...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Engine-Block-Heater-Ele...

Albeit this one runs off the mains the heating element isn't enormous.

Spot on, unless you go to a country that gets as cold as Canada you won't realise how they adapt tp the cold conditions. Here is a product that would fit a focus https://www.webasto-comfort.com/int/product-overvi...

[anonymous-user]

Toaster said:

Heres Johnny said:

Krikkit said:

That assumes there's room to put one in of course - fine in a huge pickup truck or SUV from Canada, but a bit difficult to fit to a modern Focus etc as the packaging is so tight.

Take a look...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Engine-Block-Heater-Ele...

Albeit this one runs off the mains the heating element isn't enormous.

Spot on, unless you go to a country that gets as cold as Canada you won't realise how they adapt tp the cold conditions. Here is a product that would fit a focus https://www.webasto-comfort.com/int/product-overvi...

There are cars on the UK market already fitted with electric water heaters which heat the water jacket on starting, more quickly than the normal engine would, to get emissions down. It would be relatively easy to make them preheat, possibly with an external plug in, similar to an EV.

[Burwood]

Witchfinder said:

Burwood said:

There is no question that the changes at Tesla HQ are driven by the need to be more efficient. They see the German forces gathering on the horizon.

It's not the Germans they need to worry about, it's the Chinese.

China may be able to build a quality car in a decade but I just don't see buyers outside of China in the next several years. Not in big volumes. China's demand is 20% of global production.

[DonkeyApple]

It’s interesting that it looks as if the Tesla/Panasonic model is pulling apart. Panasonic is building up and favouring its deal with Toyota in order to hedge out the exposure risk to Tesla. And really interestingly, it is beginning to look like Tesla have seen the light with regards to the dangers of tying themselves to a single battery chemistry and partner and is tendering for a Chinese partner just like all the other manufacturers.

This is actually a rather big structural change that hasn’t really been picked up upon while the frenzy of lay-offs has been so loud.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/22/tesla-is-reportedl...

Throughout the life of this thread and others, I’ve never agreed with the logic of building and controlling battery supply due to the capital intensity of it and the risk of ending up tied to an uncompetitive product. I’ve agreed with the incumbent model of pushing all that risk and investment draw into the battery suppliers and it interesting to see that Tesla could be undoing another of its unique business models as they move to maturity and into line with the world and further away from the ‘look at me, I’m special and different’ environment of the start up.

To me this is a much bigger deal than laying off a few people.

[samsock]

DonkeyApple said:

To me this is a much bigger deal than laying off a few people.

Maybe it was a condition of G3 to use Chinese rather than japanese suppliers. Doesn't seem odd to me.

Seems to me this more of a blow to Panasonic, than it is to Tesla. Diversifying their battery supply is a good thing? Also, presumably, Tesla is trying to integrate with the Chinese economy. The premier literally invited him to be a citizen. Seeking out a Chinese supplier for a chinese factory to sell chinese built cars to chinese people doesn't seem like such a crazy idea to me.

Edited by samsock on Tuesday 22 January 11:03

[DonkeyApple]

samsock said:

DonkeyApple said:

To me this is a much bigger deal than laying off a few people.

Maybe it was a condition of G3 to use Chinese rather than japanese suppliers. Doesn't seem odd to me.

Seems to me this more of a blow to Panasonic, than it is to Tesla. Diversifying their battery supply is a good thing? Also, presumably, Tesla is trying to integrate with the Chinese economy. The premier literally invited him to be a citizen. Seeking out a Chinese supplier for a chinese factory to sell chinese built cars to chinese people... ?

Edited by samsock on Tuesday 22 January 11:02

Exactly but it is a change to what they intended and also puts to bed the argument on this thread that building their own battery factory and being their own supplier was a good business move. Using partners pushes the investment cost and product risk off and is exactly why the incumbents chose this route from the outset.

On the other hand, Panasonic have not seen the returns that Tesla promised and have to expand their relationships. Working with Toyota is a much better bet and more profitable.

[samsock]

DonkeyApple said:

Exactly but it is a change to what they intended and also puts to bed the argument on this thread that building their own battery factory and being their own supplier was a good business move. Using partners pushes the investment cost and product risk off and is exactly why the incumbents chose this route from the outset.

On the other hand, Panasonic have not seen the returns that Tesla promised and have to expand their relationships. Working with Toyota is a much better bet and more profitable.

I would disagree.

G1 is still operating with panasonic under the same model. And if memory serves, Panasonic are still intending to increase their investment in G1. And Tesla still plan to micromanage and innovate and refine battery production for US supply chain. Nothing has changed there AFAIK.

G3 has a different business model in many ways. It's in a different country, different government, different landscape.

Panasonic and Toyota is old news too.

DA I'm curious are you actively shorting Tesla? You seem to be working backwards from your desired answer.

[hyphen]

Press reporting that Tesla has increased the price for Supercharging worldwide, per station pricing rather than regional too. So based on demand. And free charging via referral programme also gone.

In certain parts of the USA it is now more expensive to supercharge the car, then fill-up with normal fuel.

[FurtiveFreddy]

hyphen said:

Press reporting that Tesla has increased the price for Supercharging worldwide, per station pricing rather than regional too. So based on demand. And free charging via referral programme also gone.

In certain parts of the USA it is now more expensive to supercharge the car, then fill-up with normal fuel.

That's why more people will switch to charging at home rather than taking the option of using their local supercharger for regular top ups.

Superchargers should be for long distance trips not local ones and currently it's being abused in some areas.

It's no surprise the cost of owning and running an EV is going to increase. Or it shouldn't be. Some seem to think it's going to be subsidised forever.
Right now, Tesla calculates the cost of using SC in the UK as £ 0.24 per kWh.
That seems pretty good to me compared to using an ICE-based car of similar performance.

ETA Tesla have now just cut SC rates by 10%...

https://electrek.co/2019/01/22/tesla-cuts-supercha...

Edited by FurtiveFreddy on Tuesday 22 January 11:53

[DonkeyApple]

samsock said:

DonkeyApple said:

Exactly but it is a change to what they intended and also puts to bed the argument on this thread that building their own battery factory and being their own supplier was a good business move. Using partners pushes the investment cost and product risk off and is exactly why the incumbents chose this route from the outset.

On the other hand, Panasonic have not seen the returns that Tesla promised and have to expand their relationships. Working with Toyota is a much better bet and more profitable.

I would disagree.

G1 is still operating with panasonic under the same model. And if memory serves, Panasonic are still intending to increase their investment in G1. And Tesla still plan to micromanage and innovate and refine battery production for US supply chain. Nothing has changed there AFAIK.

G3 has a different business model in many ways. It's in a different country, different government, different landscape.

Panasonic and Toyota is old news too.

DA I'm curious are you actively shorting Tesla? You seem to be working backwards from your desired answer.

G1 hasn’t delivered the required volumes for Panasonic. G3 is a different business model. It’s the one I said some time ago they needed to follow but not the one Musk or people in here agreed with.

Why the interest in shorting or the relevance to me highlighting that Tesla are now following the standard industry route despite claiming that they wouldn’t? They’ve laid off staff before. They’ve just gone through a mass hiring event so I personally don’t find it at all surprising they are making layoffs. I find it much more interesting that they’ve continued to move the battery side off balance sheet and arguably its tied into only having $3b in the bank, $1bn of that is likely to go clearing the first bond in March and Musk has said that G3 will cost $2bn so that really means $4 outside of Plant Bullst.

[dmsims]

If you assume 3m/Kwh that's perilously close to an ICE car of not similar performance

Most people won't care about the performance - look at all the "Diesel Nigel's" who drive 4K a year around town