Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
Oh hell yeah they have challenges, every f
ker is gunning for them, literally every car maker, oil companies, the press. Everyone.
Their products and tech are way ahead and they should concentrate on pushing that along and not get involved in the bullst Elon sometimes does. I'm assuming the new sec rules will help there.
ker is gunning for them, literally every car maker, oil companies, the press. Everyone.Their products and tech are way ahead and they should concentrate on pushing that along and not get involved in the bulls
t Elon sometimes does. I'm assuming the new sec rules will help there. Without Tesla the auto industry would be quite happy selling you mild hybrids for the next 20 plus years pushing us way over 1.5c temp rises and generally fking things up more for anyone left alive post 2050.
They are doing this knowing what's going on, but profit is more important.
Right now profit is still more important for these companies so they'll do whatever they can to kill Tesla.
If they manage that they can point to Teslas failure and use that as an excuse.
fk them all, short sighted uncaring bds.
king things up more for anyone left alive post 2050.They are doing this knowing what's going on, but profit is more important.
Right now profit is still more important for these companies so they'll do whatever they can to kill Tesla.
If they manage that they can point to Teslas failure and use that as an excuse.
f
k them all, short sighted uncaring bds. gangzoom said:
"to top that off a Model X P100DL inventory black/white interior, with FSD was selling for $99,100 w/ 3400 miles. The craziest part is they were giving a 20k adjustment for current owners making it $79,100 and qualifies for all rebates."
From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
I thought you didn’t need much support?From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
Anyway, what would you replace it with?
RobDickinson said:
Without Tesla the auto industry would be quite happy selling you mild hybrids for the next 20 plus years pushing us way over 1.5c temp rises and generally fking things up more for anyone left alive post 2050.
They are doing this knowing what's going on, but profit is more important.
Right now profit is still more important for these companies so they'll do whatever they can to kill Tesla.
If they manage that they can point to Teslas failure and use that as an excuse.
fk them all, short sighted uncaring bds.
VW as recently as last week say they were pushed by Tesla. Why does it matter as long as we get there. Both companies have owners. It’s not a utopian free market. The scorn is levelled directly at musk. They wouldn’t be in this position if he didn’t behave like a brat. Shareholders can blame him not other car companies. king things up more for anyone left alive post 2050.They are doing this knowing what's going on, but profit is more important.
Right now profit is still more important for these companies so they'll do whatever they can to kill Tesla.
If they manage that they can point to Teslas failure and use that as an excuse.
f
k them all, short sighted uncaring bds. RobDickinson said:
Without Tesla the auto industry would be quite happy selling you mild hybrids for the next 20 plus years pushing us way over 1.5c temp rises and generally fking things up more for anyone left alive post 2050.
They are doing this knowing what's going on, but profit is more important.
Right now profit is still more important for these companies so they'll do whatever they can to kill Tesla.
If they manage that they can point to Teslas failure and use that as an excuse.
fk them all, short sighted uncaring bds.
Transportation accounts for 14% of global emissions. If we all went EV tomorrow but didn’t address the MAIN producers, it wouldn’t make a lot of difference. king things up more for anyone left alive post 2050.They are doing this knowing what's going on, but profit is more important.
Right now profit is still more important for these companies so they'll do whatever they can to kill Tesla.
If they manage that they can point to Teslas failure and use that as an excuse.
f
k them all, short sighted uncaring bds. If we do address the main producers of emissions, we could drive what we wanted.
Burwood said:
VW as recently as last week say they were pushed by Tesla. Why does it matter as long as we get there. Both companies have owners. It’s not a utopian free market. The scorn is levelled directly at musk. They wouldn’t be in this position if he didn’t behave like a brat. Shareholders can blame him not other car companies.
Pushed by tesla? or their emission scandal? Caught lying and cheating again just yesterday.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/17/correcting-au...
RobDickinson said:
Burwood said:
VW as recently as last week say they were pushed by Tesla. Why does it matter as long as we get there. Both companies have owners. It’s not a utopian free market. The scorn is levelled directly at musk. They wouldn’t be in this position if he didn’t behave like a brat. Shareholders can blame him not other car companies.
Pushed by tesla? or their emission scandal? Caught lying and cheating again just yesterday.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/17/correcting-au...
RobDickinson said:
Oh hell yeah they have challenges, every fker is gunning for them, literally every car maker, oil companies, the press. Everyone.
They have the class leading vehicles in every segment as far as I can tell. If they have trouble selling them and making a profit, it's not some secret conspiracy. The problems at the moment seem rather closer to home.ker is gunning for them, literally every car maker, oil companies, the press. Everyone.RobDickinson said:
Their products and tech are way ahead and they should concentrate on pushing that along and not get involved in the bullst Elon sometimes does. I'm assuming the new sec rules will help there.
Exactly. The suspicion is that Elon is producing the bullst Elon sometimes does. I'm assuming the new sec rules will help there. t because the company as it is currently constructed and financed cannot survive on the sales of the current products.ntiz said:
gangzoom said:
"to top that off a Model X P100DL inventory black/white interior, with FSD was selling for $99,100 w/ 3400 miles. The craziest part is they were giving a 20k adjustment for current owners making it $79,100 and qualifies for all rebates."
From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
Wow. I’m really surprised to see you say that as I know you have been very happy with your car. From TMC, looks like Tesla is on the verge of starting a 'fire sale'.
May be time to sell the X before the crash, without Tesla on going support its pretty much a dead car.
Surely Tesla won’t actually disappear? Maybe not continue as they are now but someone would want to buy it. Haven’t they made a big enough splash for someone like VAG to want them?
Perhaps I am being naive. But isn’t there main problem massive R&D burn? At some point won’t they get sensible and slow down and consolidate what they have which is actually quite a good company.
Or is there a much more fundamental problem like lack of sales?
The cars aren’t going to disappear and nor will the business. It may well restructure, possibly even via a C11 but unless demand for the product is horrifically lower than even the biggest bears believe there is still a business there.
As for the real problem it isn’t the R&D burn it really down to grotesque and unnecessary inefficiencies due to they way it has been run leading to the business not being robust enough to cope with typical business and global economic set backs.
The reality is that investors want the R&D burn as that’s what will delivers the mega returns but that by now it expected the business to be paying its way and the reason it isn’t is mostly due to incompetence, niavity, dishonesty and blind arrogance and contempt.
The ghastly character flaws that took the business and made it fly in the first instance are now working against the business.
ntiz said:
Wow. I’m really surprised to see you say that as I know you have been very happy with your car.
Oh the car is fantastic, love driving it, 3000 miles done in the last 65days. Road trips to Lake District, Brecon Beacons, South Downs all still to come before end of June, cannot wait to try 'Nav on AP'.
By the end of June the X will have done more miles in 19 months of ownership versus 50 months of our Lexus. Says it all really about which is the better car for our needs
.REALIST123 said:
I thought you didn’t need much support?
Anyway, what would you replace it with?
Any Tesla without Super Charger access, Tesla software updates, Spotify/Nav, app support might as well be any other car - once your use to the software integration everything else feels like 1990s dial up.Anyway, what would you replace it with?
If Q2/Q3 figures are not looking great I'll probably line up the Merc EQC, all be it reluctantly, though EPA figures not out and if its as awful as the eTron no thank you.
100% wouldn't be going back to combustion, a cheap used 30kWh Leaf would be fine stop gap till maybe Lexus finally comes out with an EV.
Edited by gangzoom on Sunday 19th May 00:31
DonkeyApple said:
That’s the nub. On paper they are a profitable auto manufacturer that’s being run into the ground by a snake oil salesman. The man that created a hugely valuable brand arguably isn’t the right person to run the business at this stage.
The cars aren’t going to disappear and nor will the business. It may well restructure, possibly even via a C11 but unless demand for the product is horrifically lower than even the biggest bears believe there is still a business there.
As for the real problem it isn’t the R&D burn it really down to grotesque and unnecessary inefficiencies due to they way it has been run leading to the business not being robust enough to cope with typical business and global economic set backs.
The reality is that investors want the R&D burn as that’s what will delivers the mega returns but that by now it expected the business to be paying its way and the reason it isn’t is mostly due to incompetence, niavity, dishonesty and blind arrogance and contempt.
The ghastly character flaws that took the business and made it fly in the first instance are now working against the business.
Surely the bigger problem is that it has been financed as a company that was going to disrupt the auto industry, so it is utterly dependent on shareholders that expect something that will be bigger than VW or Toyota and overturn the car industry? That means that acting like 'just a car company' is against the shareholders' interests.The cars aren’t going to disappear and nor will the business. It may well restructure, possibly even via a C11 but unless demand for the product is horrifically lower than even the biggest bears believe there is still a business there.
As for the real problem it isn’t the R&D burn it really down to grotesque and unnecessary inefficiencies due to they way it has been run leading to the business not being robust enough to cope with typical business and global economic set backs.
The reality is that investors want the R&D burn as that’s what will delivers the mega returns but that by now it expected the business to be paying its way and the reason it isn’t is mostly due to incompetence, niavity, dishonesty and blind arrogance and contempt.
The ghastly character flaws that took the business and made it fly in the first instance are now working against the business.
So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.
Tuna said:
Surely the bigger problem is that it has been financed as a company that was going to disrupt the auto industry, so it is utterly dependent on shareholders that expect something that will be bigger than VW or Toyota and overturn the car industry? That means that acting like 'just a car company' is against the shareholders' interests.
So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.
Recent share price actions points to the exact opposite. The shareholders are all demanding revenues with profit today and punishing anything that is linked to possible revenues down the line. That’s the big change over the last 12 months. ‘Just a car company’ is precisely what the investors are demanding today and that’s what the company needs to deliver before continuing on its longer term path. So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.
Tuna said:
DonkeyApple said:
That’s the nub. On paper they are a profitable auto manufacturer that’s being run into the ground by a snake oil salesman. The man that created a hugely valuable brand arguably isn’t the right person to run the business at this stage.
The cars aren’t going to disappear and nor will the business. It may well restructure, possibly even via a C11 but unless demand for the product is horrifically lower than even the biggest bears believe there is still a business there.
As for the real problem it isn’t the R&D burn it really down to grotesque and unnecessary inefficiencies due to they way it has been run leading to the business not being robust enough to cope with typical business and global economic set backs.
The reality is that investors want the R&D burn as that’s what will delivers the mega returns but that by now it expected the business to be paying its way and the reason it isn’t is mostly due to incompetence, niavity, dishonesty and blind arrogance and contempt.
The ghastly character flaws that took the business and made it fly in the first instance are now working against the business.
Surely the bigger problem is that it has been financed as a company that was going to disrupt the auto industry, so it is utterly dependent on shareholders that expect something that will be bigger than VW or Toyota and overturn the car industry? That means that acting like 'just a car company' is against the shareholders' interests.The cars aren’t going to disappear and nor will the business. It may well restructure, possibly even via a C11 but unless demand for the product is horrifically lower than even the biggest bears believe there is still a business there.
As for the real problem it isn’t the R&D burn it really down to grotesque and unnecessary inefficiencies due to they way it has been run leading to the business not being robust enough to cope with typical business and global economic set backs.
The reality is that investors want the R&D burn as that’s what will delivers the mega returns but that by now it expected the business to be paying its way and the reason it isn’t is mostly due to incompetence, niavity, dishonesty and blind arrogance and contempt.
The ghastly character flaws that took the business and made it fly in the first instance are now working against the business.
So the pressure to do things differently is greater than the pressure to do things well. And in the mean time, they've built a company that's dependent on endless growth, which leaves no time for consolidation and limited ability to absorb dips in demand and interest in their product. It seems to me they aimed so high that just doing things well is going to look like failure.
It's irrelevant to Teslas current issues. But it's been said over and over that Germany entering will cause a problem for Tesla and every fan boy rubbished the very idea. Tesla were the king, better tech, better cars. Germany 4 years behind. I've never disputed that they are behind, I've merely suggested their cars would be good enough and I know most mass market EV buyers won't give a toss if the range is 15% less or 15% less efficient. We do know the Germany variants are better made (so says every journalist). And it's common sense. A company who has 100 years experience will make better cars than one who has 10 (and uses a tent
) sorry couldn't help myselfMy view is Tesla will survive as a niche player making 500k cars p.a and may make 1b annually when they get their act together. In turn i'd give them a PE of 18-20, i.e 20b valuation max. Shares still need a 40-50% haircut. That's my view. Happy to change my mind if something fundamental happens.
Edited by Burwood on Sunday 19th May 14:14
sambucket said:
By what metric are german cars better made? Ad spend?
I would disagree (again) that a typical investor in Tesla expects VW or Toyota to be disrupted in terms of their global ranking.
Every review i've watched has said that the Tesla is not as well bolted together. Quality of materials. Feel factor. That's what they say. Are they making it up? I never said investors expect them to disrupt Toyota etc. I said to do so required vast $$.I would disagree (again) that a typical investor in Tesla expects VW or Toyota to be disrupted in terms of their global ranking.
I think the average investor thought Tesla would sell as many cars as they could make, build 3-4 factories, get their solar business into every corner of the world. One analyst still have a 650B valuation.In other world, ignore the money required. Tesla have about 15B in debt paying a 5% coupon. 750M in interest per annum and no visibility of profit. The overriding impression I get is that investors think because Tesla is an eco warrior (and they are wrong on that too) so they deserve a free pass. Reality is it's a business designed to make money. The CEO loves his private jets, his 10 homes, weed and swaggering around like Tony Stark. All on someone else dime i might add.
Burwood said:
Every review i've watched has said that the Tesla is not as well bolted together. Quality of materials. Feel factor. That's what they say. Are they making it up? I never said investors expect them to disrupt Toyota etc. I said to do so required vast $$.
.
Bit off topic, but can you explain the german car thing Burwood? .
It seems to me German fans rely on subjective stuff from journos like feel factor, because all the objective factors point to VAG and BMW in particular having below average build quality compared to other legacy makers, by pretty much any objective measure you can come up with.
What is the objective measure by which a german car is any better than French or Korean etc?
Musk should focus on Tesla if he wants it to succeed. Said it before. Boring company-loss making, Space X, loss making. All funded with debt. Designs surf boards and flame throwers. Makes jokes that hurt shareholders. Goes on Joe Rogan and smokes weed. Every time the stock falls.
You have to laugh Space X apparently worth 10X revenue. Who comes up with this st. I predict the man will fall on his sword and soon. And what's the bet his fans will blame everyone but Musk for that failure.
You have to laugh Space X apparently worth 10X revenue. Who comes up with this s
t. I predict the man will fall on his sword and soon. And what's the bet his fans will blame everyone but Musk for that failure.What’s also important to take on board is that the bulk of the selling since the turn of the year has been from investors reducing or exiting. The investors holding stock today not only have a different investment perspective to last year but many are different investors altogether. Even so, they all recognise that if the company is to be in existence to deliver on any market changing or revenue changing deliveries in the future it has to survive the now and the now is survived by selling more product for more revenue and less cost. That product is cars. Solar roofing is kaput for now. Home power packs also kaput for now. Flame throwers, leaf blowers, pedo attack pods, all irrelevant. They need to just sell lots of cars to lots of rich people to get themselves over the short term hurdles so they can open the door to the China factory and sell even more cars to rich people and deliver the Y to sell yet more cars to rich people. All in a global economic climate where the number of synthetically rich consumers is declining.
sambucket said:
Burwood said:
Every review i've watched has said that the Tesla is not as well bolted together. Quality of materials. Feel factor. That's what they say. Are they making it up? I never said investors expect them to disrupt Toyota etc. I said to do so required vast $$.
.
Bit off topic, but can you explain the german car thing Burwood? .
It seems to me German fans rely on subjective stuff from journos like feel factor, because all the objective factors point to VAG and BMW in particular having below average build quality compared to other legacy makers, by pretty much any objective measure you can come up with.
What is the objective measure by which a german car is any better than French or Korean etc?
It may well be perception. It's a valid point that you make. I think the interiors are better. I've never liked French cars. Too many years of building rubbish. Not all of them but many. Korea make decent cars and no doubt the engines are good. The small cars I have owned in the past, S3, R32. The Koreans didn't make such a car. When a teen I had a Starlet and then a Corolla GT. Interior plastic but great engine. My brother bought a Charade Gt ti when they came out-great car. He was a student and when he graduated bought a 7 series BMW (E32) and stuck with them ever since.
Where I grew up German cars were the best and it was a sign of success. Is that badge snobbery. If so then i suppose I am a badge snob. I doubt id every buy a Korean car or a Chinese car. Id have a Lexus though
Burwood said:
You have to laugh Space X apparently worth 10X revenue. Who comes up with this st. I predict the man will fall on his sword and soon. And what's the bet his fans will blame everyone but Musk for that failure.
There are currently 33 companies in the S&P500 trading on >10x revenues. So perhaps not far fetched.t. I predict the man will fall on his sword and soon. And what's the bet his fans will blame everyone but Musk for that failure.However, the last time there were more companies trading above that metric was March 2000 when the number was 36. It didn't end well...
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