Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

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gangzoom

6,251 posts

214 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
It’s the big elephant in the room. Any sane person knows that you cannot fix a problem caused by excess human consumption by consuming more goods. It can only be solved by consuming less.
Governments around the world had a chance to 'reset' the system in 2008, a really good chance, but instead the politicians do what they do best, kick the can down the road by congering up fake non existent money.

The whole deck of cards will come crumbling down at some point, it always does, its not if, simply when, and how much chaos that comes with it. History though suggests the bigger the correction the worse things get, so kicking the can down the road really isnt a good idea, but hey ho.

We humans have a good habit of not learning from past mistakes, but on an individual level there is nothing you can do about it all, just hope when the music does stop no one tries to kick you off your chair.

Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 21st May 11:48

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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Holy smoly. This strength of correlation is crazy! is this typical? (it's number of retail holders vs shareprice on robinhood)


Otispunkmeyer

12,557 posts

154 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
sambucket said:
Holy smoly. This strength of correlation is crazy! is this typical? (it's number of retail holders vs shareprice on robinhood)

I think this is just people trying to buy the dip? though some have gotten in a bit too early?

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
Otispunkmeyer said:
sambucket said:
Holy smoly. This strength of correlation is crazy! is this typical? (it's number of retail holders vs shareprice on robinhood)

I think this is just people trying to buy the dip? though some have gotten in a bit too early?
The market is going to be very choppy whilst this trade war plays out. Tesla could do 'no wrong' and still get thumped.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
It's a 6 month chart!

T-195

2,671 posts

60 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
AstonZagato said:
Yeah but no but yeah.

We need to consume less. But it would be good if we can start replacing the new cars going into the global fleet with vehicles that pollute less.

My wife wanted a Toyota Landcruiser V8. I persuaded her that a Tesla was a better solution (helped by the fact that you can’t buy the Toyota in the U.K. anymore). She is very happy indeed - actually happier than if we’d bought the Toyota. Lifetime emissions for the Tesla will be a fraction of the Toyota’s.
Lifetime emissions blah. Do you buy that crap?

The Toyota would still be going strong in 30 years time. Will the Tesla?

gangzoom

6,251 posts

214 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
Finally some signs Tesla is responding to the crazy S/X pricing, another £5k drop at least. US buyers also reporting 'inventory' cars are been offered with 'free for life' Supercharging'.

We aren't even close to the end of Q2, I can see some massive price cuts coming as Tesla gets desperate to shift stock. I bet some fab deals will be on offer for 'P' Versions of the RHD Model 3s almost as soon as the first boat load arrive. Not many people have the appetite for a £60k small saloon, but Tesla will have to get them shifter some how.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-price-model-s...

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
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The new SX price cuts, like the other price cuts, obviously contradict guidance. sigh.


gangzoom

6,251 posts

214 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
sambucket said:
The new SX price cuts, like the other price cuts, obviously contradict guidance. sigh.
Nothing wrong with price cuts, its the best way to stimulate demand. However if the price cuts mean your selling at a loss than its game over.

Tesla cannot be far away selling at a loss despite what they report on margins for the car, if Q2 demand tanks and a proper 'fire sale' appears am selling our car whilst its still worth some money. Ultimately I just don't think battery prices have fallen to the level Tesla (and virtually everyone else) predicted back in 2015, if Tesla could really afford to sell a $35K Model 3 or a $60K Model S/X for a profit they would be doing it already.

Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 21st May 18:23

Westlondondriver

320 posts

71 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
Every one knows there is a major refresh of the S and X interiors coming shortly. No one wants to spend £80-100k on a car to immediately looks dated. I suspect they will have to aggressively use price to clear out stock and keep demand moving until the new model comes out. Most other manufacturers have to do this on top end models at the end of the model cycle - just that dealer discounts are less obvious. Agree they are a bit too expensive though.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
Refresh lag is stil a demand issue. But it could be argued that Musk stated on the call, SX sales was entirely supply constrained due to new lines. Hmmm

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
sambucket said:
Holy smoly. This strength of correlation is crazy! is this typical? (it's number of retail holders vs shareprice on robinhood)

It’s very normal. Long % Wrong is the phrase. Before any company folds, especially tech or mining you get a massive rush of retail buying. Partly from people already in looking to average down on the bargain price and partly from new people again thinking because the price is half what it was it must be a bargain.

It’s also referred to as Dumb Money and is why it is so favoured by penny shares looking to raise capital as they can get away with pricing the raise wrong in their favour etc.

Something else to bare in mind is that most of the retail punters who will be on social media saying they shorted will be lying. As will most of the ones who are saying they’ve made a turn on the rebound. They all talk ste, they all buy stock the whole way down and it has always been like this and always will. I’ve been watching them for over 25 years and it is always the same every single time.

There are even traders who use retail broker’s sentiment and flow data to trade although when the first brokers started publishing this data they soon realised they needed to ‘adjust’ it. Much now has a certain fudge factor applied. I’ve no idea if the likes of Robinhood are publishing direct or filtering.

But despite most retail punters wanting their flow to turn the tide (amazingly there are people who will buy relentlessly as they think they can stop the selling!) the volume from the likes of Robinhood won’t amount to anything like a small institutional exit volume.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
gangzoom said:
Finally some signs Tesla is responding to the crazy S/X pricing, another £5k drop at least.
Isnt it $2k and $3k?

They raised the price of the 3 last week.

AstonZagato

12,652 posts

209 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
T-195 said:
AstonZagato said:
Yeah but no but yeah.

We need to consume less. But it would be good if we can start replacing the new cars going into the global fleet with vehicles that pollute less.

My wife wanted a Toyota Landcruiser V8. I persuaded her that a Tesla was a better solution (helped by the fact that you can’t buy the Toyota in the U.K. anymore). She is very happy indeed - actually happier than if we’d bought the Toyota. Lifetime emissions for the Tesla will be a fraction of the Toyota’s.
Lifetime emissions blah. Do you buy that crap?

The Toyota would still be going strong in 30 years time. Will the Tesla?
Given our last Toyota was the less reliable than my Range Rover, I wouldn't bet on the V8 being around in 30 years.

Teslas have far fewer moving parts. Will that be around in 30 years? It is a genre-changing car. Millennials love them. Therefore, it may well be (albeit with new batteries and some updating).

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
AstonZagato said:
T-195 said:
AstonZagato said:
Yeah but no but yeah.

We need to consume less. But it would be good if we can start replacing the new cars going into the global fleet with vehicles that pollute less.

My wife wanted a Toyota Landcruiser V8. I persuaded her that a Tesla was a better solution (helped by the fact that you can’t buy the Toyota in the U.K. anymore). She is very happy indeed - actually happier than if we’d bought the Toyota. Lifetime emissions for the Tesla will be a fraction of the Toyota’s.
Lifetime emissions blah. Do you buy that crap?

The Toyota would still be going strong in 30 years time. Will the Tesla?
Given our last Toyota was the less reliable than my Range Rover, I wouldn't bet on the V8 being around in 30 years.

Teslas have far fewer moving parts. Will that be around in 30 years? It is a genre-changing car. Millennials love them. Therefore, it may well be (albeit with new batteries and some updating).
Running a v8 diesel SUV for 30 years is a great way to fk over the climate and local health. Our roads are full of these bds, we import 25 year old land cruisers to start their life here. Its disgusting seeing them spew diesel fumes and particles out all over the place.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Tuesday 21st May 2019
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
AstonZagato said:
T-195 said:
AstonZagato said:
Yeah but no but yeah.

We need to consume less. But it would be good if we can start replacing the new cars going into the global fleet with vehicles that pollute less.

My wife wanted a Toyota Landcruiser V8. I persuaded her that a Tesla was a better solution (helped by the fact that you can’t buy the Toyota in the U.K. anymore). She is very happy indeed - actually happier than if we’d bought the Toyota. Lifetime emissions for the Tesla will be a fraction of the Toyota’s.
Lifetime emissions blah. Do you buy that crap?

The Toyota would still be going strong in 30 years time. Will the Tesla?
Given our last Toyota was the less reliable than my Range Rover, I wouldn't bet on the V8 being around in 30 years.

Teslas have far fewer moving parts. Will that be around in 30 years? It is a genre-changing car. Millennials love them. Therefore, it may well be (albeit with new batteries and some updating).
Running a v8 diesel SUV for 30 years is a great way to fk over the climate and local health. Our roads are full of these bds, we import 25 year old land cruisers to start their life here. Its disgusting seeing them spew diesel fumes and particles out all over the place.
I know what you mean, spewing diesels. I’ve got a diesel, it’s only 2 years old. It replaced a 5 year old diesel. Under full load nothing visible is emitted from the pipes. I’m not saying it’s clean but there is no smell. Nothing whatsoever. I might go petrol next year when it gets moved on unless a decent EV is available. Mid size suv (wife car).

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 22nd May 2019
quotequote all
Musk exercised 175k options at $31.17 on 20 May

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/9b45a128-bba5-4d...

Calling the bottom?

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 22nd May 2019
quotequote all
Doesn't that mean he gets them at $31 regardless of market price?

Edit - he does but the market price affects his tax bill..

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Wednesday 22nd May 2019
quotequote all
Free unlimited supercharging back on new inventory cars. While it seems yet another desperate move, in the UK it’s about 17 MS cars. I can see about 4K new inventory cars worldwide and it’s not much better than the referral option of 5k miles but it is yet another change

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 22nd May 2019
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Doesn't that mean he gets them at $31 regardless of market price?

Edit - he does but the market price affects his tax bill..
Yes, he gets them at $31.17

I wonder if the transaction was to show confidence in the company

Or whether he needed to exercise the option to cover / extend his margin loan?

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 22 May 07:32

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