Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
Just had a look on Autotrader what I would get instead of the Tesla....
Hyundai/Kia - Even if available not interested, yes I guess am a badge snob. The Kona is available but £35k for a FWD Nissan Juke sized raised up supermini?? Really people are paying that much for one?
iPace - Over 140 on sale in Autotrader, nearly 10% discount on a pre reg car, people clearly arent buying thses. Given JLR position seems a bit mad to go from the frying pan into the fire.
eTron - only two for sale, both about £90k, no thanks.
EQC - Not even listed on Autotrader
That only leaves two choices.
Nissan Leaf - It'll do, and I like Nissans, but just a bit dull.
But actually the best alternative I can see right now.....A used P85 Model S for just over £30k, almost the same range as an iPace/eTron/EQC, nearly half the price, available now, and RWD as well. If Tesla are still around to do the CCS retrofit than Rapidcharging is future proofed.
Ironically really, even when Tesla is at breaking point they still offer the best EV option.
Hyundai/Kia - Even if available not interested, yes I guess am a badge snob. The Kona is available but £35k for a FWD Nissan Juke sized raised up supermini?? Really people are paying that much for one?
iPace - Over 140 on sale in Autotrader, nearly 10% discount on a pre reg car, people clearly arent buying thses. Given JLR position seems a bit mad to go from the frying pan into the fire.
eTron - only two for sale, both about £90k, no thanks.
EQC - Not even listed on Autotrader
That only leaves two choices.
Nissan Leaf - It'll do, and I like Nissans, but just a bit dull.
But actually the best alternative I can see right now.....A used P85 Model S for just over £30k, almost the same range as an iPace/eTron/EQC, nearly half the price, available now, and RWD as well. If Tesla are still around to do the CCS retrofit than Rapidcharging is future proofed.
Ironically really, even when Tesla is at breaking point they still offer the best EV option.
Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 23 May 05:22
gangzoom said:
Just had a look on Autotrader what I would get instead of the Tesla....
Hyundai/Kia - Even if available not interested, yes I guess am a badge snob. The Kona is available but £35k for a FWD Nissan Juke sized raised up supermini?? Really people are paying that much for one?
iPace - Over 140 on sale in Autotrader, nearly 10% discount on a pre reg car, people clearly arent buying these. Given JLR position seems a bit mad to go from the frying pan into the fire.
eTron - only two for sale, both about £90k, no thanks.
EQC - Not even listed on Autotrader
That only leaves two choices.
Nissan Leaf - It'll do, and I like Nissans, but just a bit dull.
But actually the best alternative I can see right now.....A used P85 Model S for just over £30k, almost the same range as an iPace/eTron/EQC, nearly half the price, available now, and RWD as well. If Tesla are still around to do the CCS retrofit than Rapidcharging is future proofed.
Ironically really, even when Tesla is at breaking point they still offer the best EV option.
Seems like people are buying up the competitors quite a bit though in Scandi at least;Hyundai/Kia - Even if available not interested, yes I guess am a badge snob. The Kona is available but £35k for a FWD Nissan Juke sized raised up supermini?? Really people are paying that much for one?
iPace - Over 140 on sale in Autotrader, nearly 10% discount on a pre reg car, people clearly arent buying these. Given JLR position seems a bit mad to go from the frying pan into the fire.
eTron - only two for sale, both about £90k, no thanks.
EQC - Not even listed on Autotrader
That only leaves two choices.
Nissan Leaf - It'll do, and I like Nissans, but just a bit dull.
But actually the best alternative I can see right now.....A used P85 Model S for just over £30k, almost the same range as an iPace/eTron/EQC, nearly half the price, available now, and RWD as well. If Tesla are still around to do the CCS retrofit than Rapidcharging is future proofed.
Ironically really, even when Tesla is at breaking point they still offer the best EV option.
Edited by gangzoom on Thursday 23 May 05:22
Tesla also is starting to face a bit more competition - for example through May 21 in Norway, Model S/X registrations are at 141, compared to 324 for the Jaguar i-Pace and 283 for the Audi e-Tron. For the quarter to date, Norway S/X registrations are down more than 76% and The Netherlands is much worse.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265933-tesla-spl...
https://elbilstatistikk.no
Edit - the above excludes the '3' it seems.
Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 23 May 08:03
The news that the Chinese government are eyeing up giving Apple a kick in the nuts in the latest round of Games in the US/China spectacle should remind us an aspect of EVs that has been discussed many times over the years on PH and that is the 30 year program of the Chinese State to dominate and control key resources such as the REEs.
Dominating resources is hugely important in global expansion and dominance. We’ve all spent a lifetime watching the UK lose its exchanges to the US and Asia and the pricing of key global materials to the USD etc.
China has been in Africa, South America and anywhere which has key mineral resources over the last 30 years making sure that it controls the global supply and price of these key ingredients to the modern world.
Where this has visually manifested itself most prominanetly for many is the Li market. China’s long term intent is to become a global exporter of vehicles and at the heart of this plan is not to compete with ICE but to instead with EVs. It has ploughed trillions into backing businesses that control raw materials, businessss that manufacture batteries and businesses that build cars while using taxation to deny consumer access to ICE vehicles, punitive taxation on overseas products and favouring registrationapplications for EVs.
To this end I think we all appreciated that China is the largest manufacturer of Li batteries in the world, the largest manufacturer of EVs and its population are the biggest purchasers and users of EVs.
This is all very interesting but it is this control of key raw materials that is something we need to pay a little attention to as the purpose of such economic control is to essentially keep others in line and at your control.
‘Chinese control of the rare earths industry remains strong, with around 80 percent of production originating from Chinese-based operations in 2018’
Putting Li to one side as the poster boy for EV raw materials something that doesn’t seem to have been discussed much at all is Neodymium. It’s a horrible element to produce but is key in certain electric motors.
China controls 85% of this market. If you want any Neodymium in any kind of regular quantity then you have to talk to China.
An event which the US should be very aware of is that a few years ago China switched off supply to Japan in a trade dispute.
What is at risk here is that the Model 3 uses a neodymium motor and sources it’s supply from China.
While Trump is fighting the corner of the blue collar factory and 20th century industry America’s absolutely enormous 21st century, world dominating tech industry has sections within it that are wholly at the mercy of the Chinese. Not just due to manufacturing but precisely because of raw material supply.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-autos-ne...
http://rockstone-research.com/index.php/en/news/21...
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-05-22/Explainer-Ch...
This is a real part of why Tesla is getting dragged into the US trade war. It’s not just about tariffs on imported cars but about China’s ability to turn the Gigafactory lights off whenever it wishes.
Dominating resources is hugely important in global expansion and dominance. We’ve all spent a lifetime watching the UK lose its exchanges to the US and Asia and the pricing of key global materials to the USD etc.
China has been in Africa, South America and anywhere which has key mineral resources over the last 30 years making sure that it controls the global supply and price of these key ingredients to the modern world.
Where this has visually manifested itself most prominanetly for many is the Li market. China’s long term intent is to become a global exporter of vehicles and at the heart of this plan is not to compete with ICE but to instead with EVs. It has ploughed trillions into backing businesses that control raw materials, businessss that manufacture batteries and businesses that build cars while using taxation to deny consumer access to ICE vehicles, punitive taxation on overseas products and favouring registrationapplications for EVs.
To this end I think we all appreciated that China is the largest manufacturer of Li batteries in the world, the largest manufacturer of EVs and its population are the biggest purchasers and users of EVs.
This is all very interesting but it is this control of key raw materials that is something we need to pay a little attention to as the purpose of such economic control is to essentially keep others in line and at your control.
‘Chinese control of the rare earths industry remains strong, with around 80 percent of production originating from Chinese-based operations in 2018’
Putting Li to one side as the poster boy for EV raw materials something that doesn’t seem to have been discussed much at all is Neodymium. It’s a horrible element to produce but is key in certain electric motors.
China controls 85% of this market. If you want any Neodymium in any kind of regular quantity then you have to talk to China.
An event which the US should be very aware of is that a few years ago China switched off supply to Japan in a trade dispute.
What is at risk here is that the Model 3 uses a neodymium motor and sources it’s supply from China.
While Trump is fighting the corner of the blue collar factory and 20th century industry America’s absolutely enormous 21st century, world dominating tech industry has sections within it that are wholly at the mercy of the Chinese. Not just due to manufacturing but precisely because of raw material supply.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-autos-ne...
http://rockstone-research.com/index.php/en/news/21...
https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-05-22/Explainer-Ch...
This is a real part of why Tesla is getting dragged into the US trade war. It’s not just about tariffs on imported cars but about China’s ability to turn the Gigafactory lights off whenever it wishes.
Heres Johnny said:
sambucket said:
Why did you buy at 200?
It seemed to be getting some support at 200 so I hoped it was at or near the bottom. I’ve bought and sold Tesla a few times over short periods trading on the volatility, if it had risen above 220 I’d have cashed out, Why does anyone ever buy? Remove all the Jackanory rubbish and underneath exists a profitable car company. The entire investment world has been telling Musk to shut up and stop talking crap as the global economy has moved from wanting to hear crap to only wanting facts. And to not just shut up with all of this but to focus on the simple principle of selling cars.
There is what I feel to be a vindictiveness that has been created by Musk now showing in the price action and I just get the feeling that the market is playing the man more than the company. It makes me think that Q2 sales figures could trigger the stock to reverse strongly if it serves as a reminder that there is a company behind the man.
One issue is that Musk has always been diluted and ousted from his companies. His obsession to maintain enough stock in Tesla to stop this from happening is ultimately what has triggered this whole debacle and in reality brought the likelihood of him being diluted out to the closest point yet.
Any reason why you think Q2 earnings will surprise?
Since the Q1 call, Musk has 'leaked' a number of soft warnings interpreted as profit warnings, and he has not made any attempt to correct.
After promising updates in Q1, little sign of further progress on FSD or advanced summon.
Silence on Y location
Price cuts.
Huawai / China trade war lot of near term downward pressure.
No SX resurgence
If we assume a more modest CAGR of 25% or so, and gross margins of 20% ish, and no magic FSD, then reaching share price of 200 looks about right in longer term, but lots of short term downward pressure .
Since the Q1 call, Musk has 'leaked' a number of soft warnings interpreted as profit warnings, and he has not made any attempt to correct.
After promising updates in Q1, little sign of further progress on FSD or advanced summon.
Silence on Y location
Price cuts.
Huawai / China trade war lot of near term downward pressure.
No SX resurgence
If we assume a more modest CAGR of 25% or so, and gross margins of 20% ish, and no magic FSD, then reaching share price of 200 looks about right in longer term, but lots of short term downward pressure .
sambucket said:
Any reason why you think Q2 earnings will surprise?
Since the Q1 call, Musk has 'leaked' a number of soft warnings interpreted as profit warnings, and he has not made any attempt to correct.
After promising updates in Q1, little sign of further progress on FSD or advanced summon.
Silence on Y location
Price cuts.
Huawai / China trade war lot of near term downward pressure.
No SX resurgence
If we assume a more modest CAGR of 25% or so, and gross margins of 20% ish, and no magic FSD, then reaching share price of 200 looks about right in longer term, but lots of short term downward pressure .
Price is nearly exactly half of what Musk’s ‘going public’ publicity stunt said. Since the Q1 call, Musk has 'leaked' a number of soft warnings interpreted as profit warnings, and he has not made any attempt to correct.
After promising updates in Q1, little sign of further progress on FSD or advanced summon.
Silence on Y location
Price cuts.
Huawai / China trade war lot of near term downward pressure.
No SX resurgence
If we assume a more modest CAGR of 25% or so, and gross margins of 20% ish, and no magic FSD, then reaching share price of 200 looks about right in longer term, but lots of short term downward pressure .
gangzoom said:
Just had a look on Autotrader what I would get instead of the Tesla....
Hyundai/Kia - Even if available not interested, yes I guess am a badge snob. The Kona is available but £35k for a FWD Nissan Juke sized raised up supermini?? Really people are paying that much for one?
iPace - Over 140 on sale in Autotrader, nearly 10% discount on a pre reg car, people clearly arent buying thses. Given JLR position seems a bit mad to go from the frying pan into the fire.
eTron - only two for sale, both about £90k, no thanks.
EQC - Not even listed on Autotrader
That only leaves two choices.
Nissan Leaf - It'll do, and I like Nissans, but just a bit dull.
But actually the best alternative I can see right now.....A used P85 Model S for just over £30k, almost the same range as an iPace/eTron/EQC, nearly half the price, available now, and RWD as well. If Tesla are still around to do the CCS retrofit than Rapidcharging is future proofed.
Ironically really, even when Tesla is at breaking point they still offer the best EV option.
I don't think the UK market is particularly representative. For various reasons we're struggling to embrace EVs here, and the market clearly reflects that.Hyundai/Kia - Even if available not interested, yes I guess am a badge snob. The Kona is available but £35k for a FWD Nissan Juke sized raised up supermini?? Really people are paying that much for one?
iPace - Over 140 on sale in Autotrader, nearly 10% discount on a pre reg car, people clearly arent buying thses. Given JLR position seems a bit mad to go from the frying pan into the fire.
eTron - only two for sale, both about £90k, no thanks.
EQC - Not even listed on Autotrader
That only leaves two choices.
Nissan Leaf - It'll do, and I like Nissans, but just a bit dull.
But actually the best alternative I can see right now.....A used P85 Model S for just over £30k, almost the same range as an iPace/eTron/EQC, nearly half the price, available now, and RWD as well. If Tesla are still around to do the CCS retrofit than Rapidcharging is future proofed.
Ironically really, even when Tesla is at breaking point they still offer the best EV option.
Tesla are going to win or loose in the US first, then China, then the EU, then the UK last in the heap (problem child, as ever).
Kolbenkopp said:
sambucket said:
Tesla is 'now' a software company (so they say) and the software updates are massive part of the appeal to many buyers. If this is not of interest to, then you definiteily shouldn't invest in Tesla or buy the car!
Part of the reason why I didn't pull the trigger in April when they launched the SR+ versions in Germany.It's nice to have car software evolve, getting new features over the air for free is a plus. But it's also nice to have well defined working stuff out of the box and being able to rely on that. I think they need to evolve if they want to attract 'regular' buyers that like the product but look at the total proposition objectively.
Plus:
- among the most efficient EVs on the market.
- good range, nice to drive, quick.
- super charger network + CCS compatibility is very flexible
- neat styling inside and out, positive image, positive image
- software updates OTA can introduce nice new features for free but code seems to also regress frequently and OTA mechanism allows Tesla to ship half baked stuff.
- parts supply is very unreliable for a mass produced car
- electronics are closed source. no way for ex-network garages to do anything complex
- the company and product are unpredictable, from pricing to ordering process to resale values to insurance costs to TCO...
I've had a fair few modern cars over the years and I can't think that I've ever thought the infotainment could do with a software update. I mean, all the features that I expect are there, they all work, they all work just as fast as I expect and as fast as they did when new. Nothing has ever not worked. It's never left me stuck or without use of something.
So.... does it need an update or a patch? not really. It was right first time.
And many Tesla fans were quite smug about them being able to improve the braking performance with an OTA update. I am sorry, but I think they rather miss the point on that one. Point being everyone else ships cars with properly calibrated ABS modules in the first instance so that they don't need patching after the fact. Right first time.
So its all well and good for me so long as "software updates" are not simply used as a way to ship something unfinished for it to be fixed later. Its annoying enough when game developers do it on that £50 game you just bought!
Adding new features is cool mind, but how many have been more than a gimmick? I'll admit I don't know what they've introduced over updates. But the last one I heard included a fart noise generator...
On their electronics, they're very impressive indeed. Way ahead of everyone. But I think you have to ask the question... is it necessary? maybe it is for them with their Autonomous options, maybe it isn't. Are they ahead because they are technically superior or are they ahead because, whilst just as capable, everyone else has decided such a level isn't necessary yet/not cost effective/not ready for prime time?. I suspect the big guns like Toyota and VAG could have just as fancy an electronics package if they thought they needed it.
But....why can't Tesla be the ones who supply it?
One of America's top businessmen, and billionaire is the chap who used to make bumpers for cars. He branched out on his own and eventually made bumpers for all the auto factories in the US.Plastic bumpers, a simple product. He's a billionaire. Imagine if that could be done with just supplying batteries, electronics and software to the big OEMs?
There is a reason big OEMs don't make all the bits they need to make their cars. Others are better at it and can do it cheaper. And in this EV era, it seems they're even going to struggle to develop the cars on their own. There are many partnerships and noise of selling platforms to coach builders/other manufactures to ensure the ROI on the massive R&D spend.
Tesla, aren't very good at the "putting the car together" bit. They're not very good at the service/repairs side either. As a car company, I don't think they are that great.
But as a technology supplier?....could they be better served by concentrating on what they do best, the bits where they hold the lead? Is there a reason they couldn't be the defacto EV technology supplier?
I am thinking along the lines of Continental, Valeo, Bosch, Delphi... businesses that make electronics, sensors, ECUs etc. Tesla could muscle right in there and have the best products.
If you decide to go with Bosch for your ECU, then you end up with Bosch software, Bosch sensors.... it all ties together. They could be selling the backbone of many different OEMs cars.
sambucket said:
Burwood said:
Support is at $180. Where Tesla goes short term will depend on any Macro issues. Any negative sector or broader market news will result is more pain. Short interest is about 60M shares, over 30%.
Why 180?Gene Munster's note seems to be the most balanced of the analysts imo. Long term looking good if not stellar. Short term downgrades.
"We have lowered our 2019 delivery estimates by about 10% from 340k to 310k vehicles. Guidance as of the March earnings calls for 360-400k vehicles. [...] We have lowered our China delivery estimates for the balance of 2019 from 70k to 40k vehicles. We now expect China to account for 13% of deliveries in CY19 compared to our previous estimate of about 25%."
"We have lowered our 2019 delivery estimates by about 10% from 340k to 310k vehicles. Guidance as of the March earnings calls for 360-400k vehicles. [...] We have lowered our China delivery estimates for the balance of 2019 from 70k to 40k vehicles. We now expect China to account for 13% of deliveries in CY19 compared to our previous estimate of about 25%."
sambucket said:
All french to me!
It's like an auction system, buyers and sellers bid/offer and when they meet, a sale is executed. If you had few sellers at the current price and a tonne of buyers at a lower price, unwilling to pay more then it's up to the sellers to close the gap with their 'ask/offer' price. stock falls. This is why you see dramatic increases with a large short sellers position who is desperate to close the short by buying. If no sellers exist the buyer (the short) must pay a lot more.Otispunkmeyer said:
I was thinking about the OTA update thing they have and wondered if it is actually as attractive as the Tesla fans make it out.
Adding new features is cool mind, but how many have been more than a gimmick? I'll admit I don't know what they've introduced over updates. But the last one I heard included a fart noise generator...
The fart one is part of the "easter eggs" that are mildly amusing if you are a child inside a grown up - so they are popular! Allegedly the devs do these in their spare time and it's common in the tech world apparently.Adding new features is cool mind, but how many have been more than a gimmick? I'll admit I don't know what they've introduced over updates. But the last one I heard included a fart noise generator...
Apart from the Autopilot improvements a few that spring to mind are the "chill mode" - think "comfort" v "sport" in an ICE. Another was the "easy entry" where you can set the steering wheel to lift and the drivers seat to move back when the transmission is placed in Park, then resumes the drivers saved position for the next drive. Also "dashcam & sentry mode" where the cars cameras are used both whilst driving and when parked.
PIN to Drive is arguably one of the more "valuable" and offers protection against the boosting of the fey fob signal enabling thieves to enter the car and drive away. It was always possible to disable the "passive" entry (which many cars that have keyless entry/start can't do) but PIN to Drive means this functionality can remain enabled, but the car won't "start" until the user chosen PIN is keyed into the pad that appears on the centre touchscreen. This in itself has been improved, on first release the PIN pad appeared in the same place on the screen with possible fingerprints giving clues to the code, now it appears in a different part of the touchscreen each time.
Edited by DJP31 on Thursday 23 May 14:34
DJP31 said:
Otispunkmeyer said:
I was thinking about the OTA update thing they have and wondered if it is actually as attractive as the Tesla fans make it out.
Adding new features is cool mind, but how many have been more than a gimmick? I'll admit I don't know what they've introduced over updates. But the last one I heard included a fart noise generator...
The fart one is part of the "easter eggs" that are mildly amusing if you are a child inside a grown up - so they are popular! Allegedly the devs do these in their spare time and it's common in the tech world apparently.Adding new features is cool mind, but how many have been more than a gimmick? I'll admit I don't know what they've introduced over updates. But the last one I heard included a fart noise generator...
Apart from the Autopilot improvements a few that spring to mind are the "chill mode" - think "comfort" v "sport" in an ICE. Another was the "easy entry" where you can set the steering wheel to lift and the drivers seat to move back when the transmission is placed in Park, then resumes the drivers saved position for the next drive. Also "dashcam & sentry mode" where the cars cameras are used both whilst driving and when parked.
PIN to Drive is arguably one of the more "valuable" and offers protection against the boosting of the fey fob signal enabling thieves to enter the car and drive away. It was always possible to disable the "passive" entry (which many cars that have keyless entry/start can't do) but PIN to Drive means this functionality can remain enabled, but the car won't "start" until the user chosen PIN is keyed into the pad that appears on the centre touchscreen. This in itself has been improved, on first release the PIN pad appeared in the same place on the screen with possible fingerprints giving clues to the code, now it appears in a different part of the touchscreen each time.
Edited by DJP31 on Thursday 23 May 14:34
Maybe a better approach would be to have a half yearly release - those anticipated new features, drive some positive excitement in the community and meantime silently push the bug fixes as you go. I'm supposed to have early access to the latest and buggered if I notice anything early - it would play to the egos of a number of owners if we got the half yearly release 2 weeks ahead of everyone else to create a load of youtube videos on the changes to the aircon menu
The thing about OTA upgrades is that it makes each release 'disposable'.
That's great because it allows Tesla to experiment, and do so at scale. Add a dog-aircon feature and find out if it's popular, if it actually gets used, and how much it affects battery life in real-world situations.
The downside is that there's less commitment from the software teams to get stuff right - because there's always another release coming along later. It can also promote clutter, where many pointless or unwanted features are thrown out there 'because they can', and there's little discipline to keep things simple.
The traditional development cycles are deeply conservative - on the one hand, they can't afford to put stuff out that only half works; on the other hand the smaller feature set they do put out is expected to be in use in twenty years time, and is often tested to that level.
That's great because it allows Tesla to experiment, and do so at scale. Add a dog-aircon feature and find out if it's popular, if it actually gets used, and how much it affects battery life in real-world situations.
The downside is that there's less commitment from the software teams to get stuff right - because there's always another release coming along later. It can also promote clutter, where many pointless or unwanted features are thrown out there 'because they can', and there's little discipline to keep things simple.
The traditional development cycles are deeply conservative - on the one hand, they can't afford to put stuff out that only half works; on the other hand the smaller feature set they do put out is expected to be in use in twenty years time, and is often tested to that level.
Tuna said:
The thing about OTA upgrades is that it makes each release 'disposable'.
That's great because it allows Tesla to experiment, and do so at scale. Add a dog-aircon feature and find out if it's popular, if it actually gets used, and how much it affects battery life in real-world situations.
The downside is that there's less commitment from the software teams to get stuff right - because there's always another release coming along later. It can also promote clutter, where many pointless or unwanted features are thrown out there 'because they can', and there's little discipline to keep things simple.
The traditional development cycles are deeply conservative - on the one hand, they can't afford to put stuff out that only half works; on the other hand the smaller feature set they do put out is expected to be in use in twenty years time, and is often tested to that level.
If my dog wants fresh air I open the window, if I need fresh air I make sure the rear of the dog is pointing in the right direction....;)That's great because it allows Tesla to experiment, and do so at scale. Add a dog-aircon feature and find out if it's popular, if it actually gets used, and how much it affects battery life in real-world situations.
The downside is that there's less commitment from the software teams to get stuff right - because there's always another release coming along later. It can also promote clutter, where many pointless or unwanted features are thrown out there 'because they can', and there's little discipline to keep things simple.
The traditional development cycles are deeply conservative - on the one hand, they can't afford to put stuff out that only half works; on the other hand the smaller feature set they do put out is expected to be in use in twenty years time, and is often tested to that level.
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