Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
skwdenyer said:
On Brick Lane tonight, a white 2017 Model X 100D was parked, owned by a chauffeur company who operate only Teslas. Probably 50% of passers by stopped to take a look. At the same time, due to a local Asian wedding, one of the "yoot done good" was parading around in a hired Aventador. That Lamborghini got nary a glance compared to the Tesla.
It should be pointed out that Brick Lane is frequently home to glammed-up Range Rovers, various hired exotica, the odd Bentley or Rolls Royce, some Porsches, etc. Decent cars are not uncommon. Admiring glances are not unusual. But a gaggle of passers-by flocking around a plain white SUV asking "how much" and "how fast" and "only £60k for a 2017 plate with free fuel for life? I'm off to look on Autotrader!" is a little more unusual.
Nice anecdote. Meanwhile in the real world a member on here started a thread just a few days ago, saying its a nightmare to sell his X. Tesla won't buy it, no one else will, he is doing a sale or return...It should be pointed out that Brick Lane is frequently home to glammed-up Range Rovers, various hired exotica, the odd Bentley or Rolls Royce, some Porsches, etc. Decent cars are not uncommon. Admiring glances are not unusual. But a gaggle of passers-by flocking around a plain white SUV asking "how much" and "how fast" and "only £60k for a 2017 plate with free fuel for life? I'm off to look on Autotrader!" is a little more unusual.
skwdenyer said:
But Tesla is already as large as BMW were when they launched the iconic E30 3 series 
Im not sure you can directly compare the sales volumes of two dates that far apart...Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:00
RobDickinson said:
At end of 2019 Tesla will be at 500k production levels.
By 2028 there will (given the 78 gigafactorys planned) be a rough limit of 25 million ev's a year production.
Planned being the operative word!By 2028 there will (given the 78 gigafactorys planned) be a rough limit of 25 million ev's a year production.
Meanwhile, the Europeans have formed the less lone wolf, more combined strength, European battery Alliance https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/policy/europe...
Is Panasonic tied into Tesla? Or can they partner with others too?
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:14
hyphen said:
Im not sure you can directly compare the sales volumes of two dates that far apart...
Indeed the market is already far far bigger than it was back then.Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:00
Sales of BMW US passenger cars in the 12 months through June 2019 were just 84,467, down 14.5% from 98,752 a year ago. Tesla meanwhile sold around 184,000 Model 3 sedans in the US over the past 12 months, ramping up from just a few thousands over the previous 12 months. Tesla also sold around 22,000 Model S sedans in the US in the 12 months ending June 2019.
Tesla in my view is already a mainstream manufacturer as it outsells BMW in the USA. (which is considered mainstream)
jamoor said:
Tesla in my view is already a mainstream manufacturer as it outsells BMW in the USA. (which is considered mainstream)
Tesla is playing with under 1% of the US market, which is the size of the EV market. So nope, not mainstream, just making a lot of noise. BMW sales are skewed, as their X cars are counted under 'light trucks' by US analysts rather than passenger cars, and its suvs where the growth is (and strangely where Tesla is failing juding by Model X sales numbers?) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190702005...
And regardless, saying "we are bigger than BMW who are tiny here in our home market" isn't really an achievement, its BMWs failing for other reasons surely.
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:27
jamoor said:
Tesla in my view is already a mainstream manufacturer as it outsells BMW in the USA. (which is considered mainstream)
Tesla is playing with under 1% of the US market. BMW sales are skewed, as their X cars are counted under 'light trucks' by US analysts rather than passenger cars, and its suvs where the growth is (and strangely where Tesla is failing?) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190702005...
Also don't forget that Tesla is not capable of running a used car business. BMW is, so thats many thousands more sold cars.
And regardless, saying "we are bigger than BMW who are tiny here in our home market" isn't really an achievement, its BMWs failing for other reasons surely.
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:30
I find it incredible anyone would think Tesla is going to be a niche manufacturer of EVs. They don't even have the Y or the pickup truck on the market yet.
That pickup is going to get hundreds of thousands of deposits on day 1.
On the flip side tho I just don't know how Tesla will meet all this demand, but they are quite amazing at expanding.
I wonder if this thread will still be going when they hit 1million vehicles a year. 2020?
That pickup is going to get hundreds of thousands of deposits on day 1.
On the flip side tho I just don't know how Tesla will meet all this demand, but they are quite amazing at expanding.
I wonder if this thread will still be going when they hit 1million vehicles a year. 2020?
jjwilde said:
I find it incredible anyone would think Tesla is going to be a niche manufacturer of EVs. T
There are politics at play, the European countries want to maintain the position of their car manufacturers- too big to fail, the Chinese, Indians etc all do too.Tesla should be forming key alliances and partnerships, but all signs are that they are going alone (with a bit of Panasonic).
Elon now wants to put computer chips in your brain, and his girlfriend this week announced she has "removed all blue light from her vision through replacing the top layers of her eyes with a orange polymer that she made herself, to cure her seasoal depression"
Who dates someone that bat s
t crazy?Think ill back the sane ones
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:41
hyphen said:
jjwilde said:
I find it incredible anyone would think Tesla is going to be a niche manufacturer of EVs. T
There are politics at play, the European countries want to maintain the position of their car manufacturers- too big to fail, the Chinese, Indians etc all do too.Tesla should be forming key alliances and partnerships, but all signs are that they are going alone (with a bit of Panasonic).
Elon now wants to put computer chips in your brain, and his girlfriend this week announced she has "removed all blue light from her vision through replacing the top layers of her eyes with a orange polymer that she made herself, to cure her seasoal depression"
Who dates someone that bat s
t crazy?Think ill back the sane ones
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:41
jjwilde said:
That pickup is going to get hundreds of thousands of deposits on day 1.
If Tesla can get through the next 18 months or so, they will have transformed into a 'mainstream' manufacturer from a niche player. I'm still not sure that's a given, but let's hope.However, the people pointing to 'doubling their size' every X months are being wildly optimistic if they think that is likely to sustain for very long - just for purely statistical reasons.
I picked up on this particular comment as I don't think people really get how much of a gamble each successive model becomes. A pickup is bought against wildly different criteria than that being applied to the Model 3 and I'm not certain how much the iPhone generation early adopter demographic overlaps with that segment. If nothing else, Musk certainly keeps things interesting.
hyphen said:
Is Panasonic tied into Tesla? Or can they partner with others too?
Panasonic have 2 parts of their battery business, cylindrical ones which is all tesla and flat/prismatic ones which is getting sold off to Toyota in a joint venture. All the panasonic cells they supply tesla are joint Ip and panasonic cant make or sell them for anyone else.
The limiting point for the EV market is cell production, Tesla have the largest most efficient cell factory and with the maxwell aquisition and their own chemistry research they will only pull ahead.
RobDickinson said:
Panasonic have 2 parts of their battery business, cylindrical ones which is all tesla and flat/prismatic ones which is getting sold off to Toyota in a joint venture.
All the panasonic cells they supply tesla are joint Ip and panasonic cant make or sell them for anyone else.
The limiting point for the EV market is cell production, Tesla have the largest most efficient cell factory and with the maxwell aquisition and their own chemistry research they will only pull ahead.
European Battery Alliance will be a formidable opponent? 131GWH production capacity by 2023 is their plan, and the members are everyone...All the panasonic cells they supply tesla are joint Ip and panasonic cant make or sell them for anyone else.
The limiting point for the EV market is cell production, Tesla have the largest most efficient cell factory and with the maxwell aquisition and their own chemistry research they will only pull ahead.
Then the normal tech manufacturing centers in the east must be on top of it too? The Chinese will have nicked the IP already.
Edited by hyphen on Thursday 18th July 23:54
Tuna said:
However, the people pointing to 'doubling their size' every X months are being wildly optimistic if they think that is likely to sustain for very long - just for purely statistical reasons.
Yep its a huge capital investment sink but look at the plans over the next few years.The GF3 comes online in a few months
Model Y production - 2-3 times the model 3 marker
Pickup truck production 6-8 times the model 3 market? larger?
2022/3 is likely to see
80-100,000 X/Y
400-500,000 3s
1,000,000-1,400,000 Ys
??? pickup trucks
20,000 roadsters
1000-2000 semis
RobDickinson said:
Tuna said:
However, the people pointing to 'doubling their size' every X months are being wildly optimistic if they think that is likely to sustain for very long - just for purely statistical reasons.
Yep its a huge capital investment sink but look at the plans over the next few years.The GF3 comes online in a few months
Model Y production - 2-3 times the model 3 marker
Pickup truck production 6-8 times the model 3 market? larger?
2022/3 is likely to see
80-100,000 X/Y
400-500,000 3s
1,000,000-1,400,000 Ys
??? pickup trucks
20,000 roadsters
1000-2000 semis
There are going to be a lot of jobs with 'EV experience desired, salary negotioble' popping up too. Can Tesla keep the staff they need to keep going at this rate? Why work 90 hour weeks when you can work 9-5 and have a bigger budget and headcount...
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