Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

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RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Monday 4th June 2018
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In general

Mr2Mike

20,143 posts

254 months

Monday 4th June 2018
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RobDickinson said:
I still don't understand why you short a company's with huge and growing order book making product with a gross profit.
I'm no financial expert, but I suspect the $10 billion debt and the monstrous cash burn have some bearing on this?

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Monday 4th June 2018
quotequote all
Mr2Mike said:
RobDickinson said:
I still don't understand why you short a company's with huge and growing order book making product with a gross profit.
I'm no financial expert, but I suspect the $10 billion debt and the monstrous cash burn have some bearing on this?
You cant magic mass production out of thin air!

AstonZagato

12,649 posts

209 months

Tuesday 5th June 2018
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JPJPJP said:
Mr2Mike said:
Have you put your life savings into Tesla shares then?
No one should punt life changing amounts on a single company share really.

But, if you were to punt, say, 0.5% of your investment funds on Tesla shares, would you long (buy) or short (sell)?

I have no current position and don’t expect to have one anytime soon. But, for the purpose of the exercise, I would go long, but would cash out at a loss if the price went down to $183

PS it is the shareholder meeting tomorrow
You could, as an alternative, buy one of their convertible bonds. If you think they aren't going bust in the next 6 months, then the 2019 bond gives you 100% of the upside on the stock above $360 and 3 points of downside if the stock is below $360.

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Tuesday 5th June 2018
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RobDickinson said:
I still don't understand why you short a company's with huge and growing order book making product with a gross profit.
You are aware that the M3 order book is shrinking? They're having many more cancellations that they're adding new orders albeit starting from a large number.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 5th June 2018
quotequote all
Heres Johnny said:
You are aware that the M3 order book is shrinking? They're having many more cancellations that they're adding new orders albeit starting from a large number.
You are aware it isn't right?

https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reser...

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Tuesday 5th June 2018
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Heres Johnny said:
You are aware that the M3 order book is shrinking? They're having many more cancellations that they're adding new orders albeit starting from a large number.
You are aware it isn't right?

https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reser...
or try reading the actual report which says they are falling overall

https://blog.secondmeasure.com/2018/06/04/tesla-fa...

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 6th June 2018
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Which is denied by Tesla. Last public statement ( legally required to be accurate, and not an estimation from bank receipts) say 450,00 pre orders holding steady. Still 400,000 or 450,000 or whatever is years worth of production.

In other news Tesla shareholders vote to keep Elon as chairman and keep all existing board members.

Model 3 becomes the biggest selling luxury mid sized car in USA beating merc c class, 3 series , A4 and lexus is. Currently has over 30% of the market share, that with production constraints and shipping a bunch to canada to game the tax rebate system in USA.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 6th June 2018
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Meeting notes :
Model 3 is now the best selling medium-size sedan in the US. Screenshot from the live stream.
Model 3 SR low volume production by the end of this year.
5,000/week by the end of this month looks very likely.
Supercharger V3 will be quite an improvement. Announcement later this year.
Tesla's energy sector will grow so much each that each year the production will be more than all previous years combined.
Next year Gigafactory will produce more car batteries than all the rest of the world combined.
Glass-solar-roof accelerated life testing
No need to raise money. Positive cash flow in Q3 and Q4.
Model Y production in 2020, reveal in March 2019.
New Roadster will have SpaceX option package. The car revealed was the base model.
JB Straubel: We have the best battery performance at the best price
Elon: We might achieve $100/kWh at the cell level later this year depending on commodity prices
Elon: In 2 years we think we will reach $100/kWh at the pack level
New Gigafactory [battery + cars] will be in Shanghai in China. The announcement will be in next month.
Model 3 insurance cost should be 20-30% lower than BMW 3 series. We are working with insurance companies.
Volume production of Standard Range Model 3 in Q1 2019. Initial production before the end of this year.
Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US orders
Model 3 LR AWD new orders will take 12 months this I think should be RHD not AWD
New Model 3 production line has started production. Elon is confident about 5,000/week by the end of this month
Tesla will add body repair sections to some of the service centers. Body repair costs and time will be improved. Same day repairs will be possible for some of the repairs.
Autopilot on-ramp to off-ramp could be released in a couple of months
Model 3 lease will be offered at the end of this year or early next year. It has a negative effect on finances.
We need to achieve 10,000/week next year
Starlink device to receive connections is the size of a medium size pizza. Not suitable to put on the roof of a car. They will continue to use cellular connections for Tesla cars.
Virtual grid in Puerto Rico could be possible instead of building new power plants.
Charge speeds will be improved. 2012 batteries won't be able to use the improved technology. Only battery packs with the new chemistry can use it.
Tesla will offer cars with more than 400 miles range down the road.
Tesla currently uses leather only on the steering wheel. Model Y [in 2020] won't use any leather.
Elon: In 2-3 years we might be able to improve battery volumetric density by 20-30%.
AWD invites will go out next week. Production will start this month. Scaling up through July-Aug. High volume in Sep-Oct.
Tesla energy storage gross margin target is the same as automotive which is 20-30%. We might reach this by the end of this year or early next year.
In the next several months the improvement in Autopilot will be quite dramatic.
Model 3 Tier-1 suppliers didn't work out well. Tesla is switching those to internal production. There will be still lots of suppliers but these will be mostly Tier-2 and Tier-3

Edited by RobDickinson on Wednesday 6th June 00:36

EddieSteadyGo

11,713 posts

202 months

Wednesday 6th June 2018
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Meeting notes :
Model 3 is now the best selling medium-size sedan in the US. Screenshot from the live stream.
Model 3 SR low volume production by the end of this year.
5,000/week by the end of this month looks very likely.
Supercharger V3 will be quite an improvement. Announcement later this year.
Tesla's energy sector will grow so much each that each year the production will be more than all previous years combined.
Next year Gigafactory will produce more car batteries than all the rest of the world combined.
Glass-solar-roof accelerated life testing
No need to raise money. Positive cash flow in Q3 and Q4.
Model Y production in 2020, reveal in March 2019.
New Roadster will have SpaceX option package. The car revealed was the base model.
JB Straubel: We have the best battery performance at the best price
Elon: We might achieve $100/kWh at the cell level later this year depending on commodity prices
Elon: In 2 years we think we will reach $100/kWh at the pack level
New Gigafactory [battery + cars] will be in Shanghai in China. The announcement will be in next month.
Model 3 insurance cost should be 20-30% lower than BMW 3 series. We are working with insurance companies.
Volume production of Standard Range Model 3 in Q1 2019. Initial production before the end of this year.
Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US orders
Model 3 LR AWD new orders will take 12 months this I think should be RHD not AWD
New Model 3 production line has started production. Elon is confident about 5,000/week by the end of this month
Tesla will add body repair sections to some of the service centers. Body repair costs and time will be improved. Same day repairs will be possible for some of the repairs.
Autopilot on-ramp to off-ramp could be released in a couple of months
Model 3 lease will be offered at the end of this year or early next year. It has a negative effect on finances.
We need to achieve 10,000/week next year
Starlink device to receive connections is the size of a medium size pizza. Not suitable to put on the roof of a car. They will continue to use cellular connections for Tesla cars.
Virtual grid in Puerto Rico could be possible instead of building new power plants.
Charge speeds will be improved. 2012 batteries won't be able to use the improved technology. Only battery packs with the new chemistry can use it.
Tesla will offer cars with more than 400 miles range down the road.
Tesla currently uses leather only on the steering wheel. Model Y [in 2020] won't use any leather.
Elon: In 2-3 years we might be able to improve battery volumetric density by 20-30%.
AWD invites will go out next week. Production will start this month. Scaling up through July-Aug. High volume in Sep-Oct.
Tesla energy storage gross margin target is the same as automotive which is 20-30%. We might reach this by the end of this year or early next year.
In the next several months the improvement in Autopilot will be quite dramatic.
Model 3 Tier-1 suppliers didn't work out well. Tesla is switching those to internal production. There will be still lots of suppliers but these will be mostly Tier-2 and Tier-3
The main query I had from last night's Tesla presentation was, if they have over a year's back-orders on the Model 3, how can they say if you order a new Model 3 in the US now, it should be delivered in 3-4 months?

Is that effectively saying that the large majority of the back-orders are now from outside the US market?

Or are they saying that there isn't any sizeable level of back-orders in the US, apart than for the cheapest version of the car (which they don't want to make as it isn't really profitable at the moment)?

And if they have mostly cleared their backlog of higher spec US Model 3 orders that is interesting. I think they have made around 40,000 Model 3 cars at the moment. So when they say they the Model 3 is now more popular than the BMW 3-series and C-class, that must be effectively because they are fulfilling the 40,000 back-orders collected over the last 2 years.

So what we need to know is the rate at which people in the US are currently ordering a new Model 3, so we can see if this position will be maintained.

As an aside, I thought it was funny that one of the questions asked from the audience (I think from one of his supportive Youtube bloggers) was should they take all of the time-frame announcements and judge them on "Elon Time" rather than normal time.

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Wednesday 6th June 2018
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Which is denied by Tesla. Last public statement ( legally required to be accurate, and not an estimation from bank receipts) say 450,00 pre orders holding steady. Still 400,000 or 450,000 or whatever is years worth of production.

In other news Tesla shareholders vote to keep Elon as chairman and keep all existing board members.

Model 3 becomes the biggest selling luxury mid sized car in USA beating merc c class, 3 series , A4 and lexus is. Currently has over 30% of the market share, that with production constraints and shipping a bunch to canada to game the tax rebate system in USA.
Tesla have refused to comment on their reservations count growing or falling with numbers for some time other than to say as a total its still above a number which is now over 50k lower than it was a couple of days after the reservations opened a few years ago - and not reduced by the number delivered. Its still a big number, but lets not kid ourselves that its growing.

But please don't make me laugh about Musks ability to report any number or timescale with any real sense of accuracy - he's made market statements before which were undeniably false by a considerable size such as production volume forecasts.

On the point of 3-4 month waiting time, I think what they're saying is that reservation owners who can configure their car only have to wait that long, for many reservation owners or people without a reservation, you still can't order.



EddieSteadyGo

11,713 posts

202 months

Wednesday 6th June 2018
quotequote all
Heres Johnny said:
On the point of 3-4 month waiting time, I think what they're saying is that reservation owners who can configure their car only have to wait that long, for many reservation owners or people without a reservation, you still can't order.
Yes, makes sense. Thanks for clarifying.

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Wednesday 6th June 2018
quotequote all
Heres Johnny said:
But please don't make me laugh about Musks ability to report any number or timescale with any real sense of accuracy - he's made market statements before which were undeniably false by a considerable size such as production volume forecasts.
Predictions of future things for companies is always hedged. This was a blank statement of how many orders they had at the time, you cant lie about that.


TSLA is now up 10% after the shareholder meeting, this is likely pushed by institutions investing more, caused by Elon revealing the falling cost of batteries.

$100 per KWH this year is a lot lower than anyone was thinking, last price point talked about was $190.Thats a huge saving per car and bigger profit margins than expected. Tesla cells are also industry leading.

$100 pe kwh at pack level in a couple of years is also pretty impressive and well ahead of the curve.

p1stonhead

25,489 posts

166 months

Tuesday 12th June 2018
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Tesla letting 9% (approx 4,000) of their staff go!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/10065975621560...

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 12th June 2018
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Yep seems a lot of solar city dead weight? It's bad they have that much to cut but good its going..

Shares up to $342

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Wednesday 13th June 2018
quotequote all
Solar city was not a rational buy, I recall it was his nephews business and musk was in the board and it was about to fold, so they bought it, nothing like a bit of nepotism.

The mass roll out of solar panel roof tiles seems to be following FSD timescales. Either way, the home depot redundancies alone will be about 1/3 of those that need to go, I imagine and hope they’re contracting to core business for a while. There can be too much going on for one man

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Sunday 17th June 2018
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More bad PR. A Tesla catches as driver is driving along.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/17...

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Sunday 17th June 2018
quotequote all
U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 152,300 automobile fires per year in 2006-2010. These fires caused an average of 209 civilian deaths, 764 civilian injuries, and $536 million in direct property damage.


Share price up to $358.

Fast and Spurious

1,294 posts

87 months

Sunday 17th June 2018
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 152,300 automobile fires per year in 2006-2010. These fires caused an average of 209 civilian deaths, 764 civilian injuries, and $536 million in direct property damage.


Share price up to $358.
That's a heck of a lot of dead and injured per fire! I guess the Hollywood movies ARE accurate after all.

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Sunday 17th June 2018
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 152,300 automobile fires per year in 2006-2010. These fires caused an average of 209 civilian deaths, 764 civilian injuries, and $536 million in direct property damage.
How many are newish cars? As most will be old. A quick look shows that there are 253 million cars and trucks on U.S. roads; average age is 11.4 years.

So 152,000 is nothing, 0.06% and you would expect 99% of those to be age related wear and tear/mods/lack of maintenance rather than new faults.

Don't think it will affect sales, more a question of have they been cutting costs by lowering standard, is there a risk of future lawsuits/fines.

Edited by hyphen on Sunday 17th June 07:57

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