Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

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jamoor

14,506 posts

214 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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T-195 said:
Just under 1 million Company Car types in the UK.

How many do you think will be allowed to use a rather expensive Tesla over far cheaper ICE cars?

I'd have thought a good chunk of those would be Estates, which Tesla don't sell.
It's the BMW 3 Series, Audi A4, Merc C class market is the one that will be hit the hardest.

The cheapest BMW 3 Series is £33.5k
The model 3 is £37k.

There isn't that much between them except the running costs.

The person using the car will have to pay £1,800 on a 20% rate or double on a 40% in BIK every single year. On the tesla it's £0 then £80 then £160 from aor 2020.

jamoor

14,506 posts

214 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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Burwood said:
I would stop for the loo but for 10 minutes max. Coffee would be to go. But as pointed out if I could get a good charge in 10mins.....
How about when you stop I offer to put £50 of fuel in your tank for free, on the provision that you have to take an additional 30 mins to drink your coffee?

jamoor

14,506 posts

214 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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SWoll said:
Plenty of CC drivers running Audi/BMW/MB saloons with similar list prices to the Model 3.

A BMW 320D M-Sport/A4 40 S-line/C200 AMG Line without any options all list at similar prices to the M3 SR+. Based on previous CC lists I've had those are pretty standard lower end sales/management offerings that would make up a decent % of the 1,000,000 cars you quote.
Indeed, there is simply no usage scenario for the cars that you have mentioned where they would work out cheaper for all involved.

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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On the company car point, HMRC changed the rules so that the cost of a company car where the driver had the choice to take cash or the car, sometimes referred to as salary sacrifice, was the higher of the real costs of the car or the BIK value - as a result few went for the company car as there was no real financial gain to be had. EVs are exempt,

Next year with BIK going to zero and the only viable company car option being an EV if you want a real financial benefit, I can see very few people taking anything other than an EV as a company car.

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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Heres Johnny said:
On the company car point, HMRC changed the rules so that the cost of a company car where the driver had the choice to take cash or the car, sometimes referred to as salary sacrifice, was the higher of the real costs of the car or the BIK value - as a result few went for the company car as there was no real financial gain to be had. EVs are exempt,

Next year with BIK going to zero and the only viable company car option being an EV if you want a real financial benefit, I can see very few people taking anything other than an EV as a company car.
I think you can also add to that the fact that most corporates will be extremely eager to add EVs anyway due to the positive PR angle. And if someone like John Lewis doesn’t you can imagine how absolutely livid the excess consumer, fake eco warrior is going to be getting on social media.

The hurdles are where the company car user needs a car with real and unrelenting range and also the hidden cost of trying to run a fleet of Tesla’s which to date has been a bit of a mess for companies.

Given the average money available within schemes one has to imagine that the bulk of new sales will likely go to things like the Zoe though?

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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DonkeyApple said:
Absolutely although spending £50k on a car that might not even fit your usage requirements when you are also financially constrained re running costs is the absolutely classic modern excess consumer foolishness.

The last few pages of this thread have really highlighted the core Tesla client base as not really giving a flying fk about the environment but instead being a core part of the problem as rampant over consumers desperate for the next gadget whatever the cost to themselves or society.

There is absolutely nothing wrong in that and in reality it shows the massive value the brand has over the incumbents and what it is that might save Tesla as demand alone for EVs simply is not enough.
The environment is not a real factor for 90% of EV buyers, even for those who are noisy about it. Which Tesla knows full well. If you go through the order process, you are sold on the fuel savings, the performance and tax. The carbon stuff is on the website if you so choose, but it's not present in the sales funnel.

I don't think gov or Tesla can expect consumers to alter their behaviour on will power alone. Maybe there is talk, but action is rare. It is for central government to modify behaviour via taxation and incentives. These are levers that drive behaviour.

Re 'whatever the cost to themselves'. I still don't think the point is driven home, that over 7 years, no matter how you buy it, it's still cheaper to buy an EV than a ICE. The tesla is cheaper than the focus. The Zoe is cheaper than the fiesta.

So if you need a car, it's not really gratuitous to pursue a tesla or zoe. It just makes sense. 100x so if you have your own drive.


jamoor

14,506 posts

214 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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Sambucket said:
The environment is not a real factor for 90% of EV buyers, even for those who are noisy about it. Which Tesla knows full well. If you go through the order process, you are sold on the fuel savings, the performance and tax. The carbon stuff is on the website if you so choose, but it's not present in the sales funnel.

I don't think gov or Tesla can expect consumers to alter their behaviour on will power alone. Maybe there is talk, but action is rare. It is for central government to modify behaviour via taxation and incentives. These are levers that drive behaviour.

Re 'whatever the cost to themselves'. I still don't think the point is driven home, that over 7 years, no matter how you buy it, it's still cheaper to buy an EV than a ICE. The tesla is cheaper than the focus. The Zoe is cheaper than the fiesta.

So if you need a car, it's not really gratuitous to pursue a tesla or zoe. It just makes sense. 100x so if you have your own drive.
In a few years we may get to the point that we don't need to strongarm people into electric cars because the economics make sense this will happen waaay before they ban ICE cars in 2040. I'm pretty sure it will happen in this decade.

T-195

2,671 posts

60 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
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jamoor said:
In a few years we may get to the point that we don't need to strongarm people into electric cars because the economics make sense this will happen waaay before they ban ICE cars in 2040. I'm pretty sure it will happen in this decade.
They are only stopping the sale on new ICE cars in 2040. I will also believe it when I see it.

I can cope with that.

98elise

26,374 posts

160 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
quotequote all
T-195 said:
jamoor said:
In a few years we may get to the point that we don't need to strongarm people into electric cars because the economics make sense this will happen waaay before they ban ICE cars in 2040. I'm pretty sure it will happen in this decade.
They are only stopping the sale on new ICE cars in 2040. I will also believe it when I see it.

I can cope with that.
The ban is on ICE only, ICE hybrid is fine. I suspect there will be no pure ICE by then anyway. Electric drivetrai makes much more sense from a efficiency and performance perspective, and hybrid removes the range anxiety.

Any small economic pure ICE car is going to feel very very slow by 2040.

SWoll

18,206 posts

257 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
quotequote all
jamoor said:
Sambucket said:
The environment is not a real factor for 90% of EV buyers, even for those who are noisy about it. Which Tesla knows full well. If you go through the order process, you are sold on the fuel savings, the performance and tax. The carbon stuff is on the website if you so choose, but it's not present in the sales funnel.

I don't think gov or Tesla can expect consumers to alter their behaviour on will power alone. Maybe there is talk, but action is rare. It is for central government to modify behaviour via taxation and incentives. These are levers that drive behaviour.

Re 'whatever the cost to themselves'. I still don't think the point is driven home, that over 7 years, no matter how you buy it, it's still cheaper to buy an EV than a ICE. The tesla is cheaper than the focus. The Zoe is cheaper than the fiesta.

So if you need a car, it's not really gratuitous to pursue a tesla or zoe. It just makes sense. 100x so if you have your own drive.
In a few years we may get to the point that we don't need to strongarm people into electric cars because the economics make sense this will happen waaay before they ban ICE cars in 2040. I'm pretty sure it will happen in this decade.
In the next 5 years as the choice of vehicles increases, charging infrastructure improves and more importantly people actually get to experience just how much better an EV is as daily vehicle than ICE numbers will increase massively.

Never thought I'd be in the EV camp as a lifetime petrol head (first car in 1994 was a 205 1.9 GTi) but for the daily trudge of commuting, teenage taxi, popping to the shops, trips to the coast they are just better than their ICE equivalents.

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Sunday 25th August 2019
quotequote all
SWoll said:
In the next 5 years as the choice of vehicles increases, charging infrastructure improves and more importantly people actually get to experience just how much better an EV is as daily vehicle than ICE numbers will increase massively.

Never thought I'd be in the EV camp as a lifetime petrol head (first car in 1994 was a 205 1.9 GTi) but for the daily trudge of commuting, teenage taxi, popping to the shops, trips to the coast they are just better than their ICE equivalents.
Absolutely. The next 10/20 years is going to be about settling down to where the logical balance in the market is between ICE and EV.

skwdenyer

16,178 posts

239 months

Monday 26th August 2019
quotequote all
98elise said:
T-195 said:
jamoor said:
In a few years we may get to the point that we don't need to strongarm people into electric cars because the economics make sense this will happen waaay before they ban ICE cars in 2040. I'm pretty sure it will happen in this decade.
They are only stopping the sale on new ICE cars in 2040. I will also believe it when I see it.

I can cope with that.
The ban is on ICE only, ICE hybrid is fine. I suspect there will be no pure ICE by then anyway. Electric drivetrai makes much more sense from a efficiency and performance perspective, and hybrid removes the range anxiety.

Any small economic pure ICE car is going to feel very very slow by 2040.
2040 for now.

Eire have announced their ban from 2030 and all not MOTs granted to ICE vehicles from 2045. Unclear if there will be any exemptions for historic vehicles, but those few might be back to buying canned petrol smile

Regarding petrol hybrids, there’s little doubt in my mind that those will be effectively limited to range extenders.

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Monday 26th August 2019
quotequote all
jamoor said:
In a few years we may get to the point that we don't need to strongarm people into electric cars because the economics make sense this will happen waaay before they ban ICE cars in 2040. I'm pretty sure it will happen in this decade.
I agree. The true issue for EVs is the batteries and flawed politics. The EV as it is today, a heavy and use limited product will easily fill an important car usage segment once true costs allow them to be the obvious choice but as we know, private, urban ICE vehicles don’t actually make up a dominant level of the urban pollution so once we reach a certain level of saturation the local environmental gains will hugely diminish.

In the mean time you have the issue that to supply enough battery raw materials and end battery products to meet this objective will take a very long time. It takes years to bring new raw material mines into stable production and years to build the factories to manufacture the end product. This obviously requires vast investment where that money needs to be clawed back over subsequent years. It can take up to ten years to bring a mine up to commercial pace and then a further ten years to recoup the cost in extreme cases but anyone planning to make such an investment has the issue that during that period it is entirely feasible that a new battery technology appears that makes the investment a total loss overnight. Combine that risk with the problem that current demand only exists because a collective of countries are forcing it via taxation and subsidies and you can begin to see why no one is rushing Hell for leather into all of this.

One thing everyone knows is that a car lugging about a ton of Li batteries is not the long term future but a stopgap and that the long term, mass solution is either superior battery technology or an appropriate blend of EV/ICE. Whether that is hiring ICE for the anomalous journeys, fitting an EV with REX or even rowing a REX!

But thinking logically, the two tonne EV isn’t the future but a stepping stone to where we are going to be in a decade’s time.

coetzeeh

2,641 posts

235 months

Monday 26th August 2019
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^^^ agree 100%. No doubt Battery plays a vital and key role.

Also feels as if the anticipated uptake and growth in EV may have been overestimated.

For example the SMMT Jan forecast suggested 86k new UK registrations 2019 vs 59k for 2018 (both plug in and pure Battery).

The July forecast been revised down to 59k for 2019 - the same as 2018 - although Plug ins declined and Battery increased (14k pure Battery vehicles registered to end July according to SMMT).

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2019/08/uk-new-car-and-van-...


gangzoom

6,251 posts

214 months

Monday 26th August 2019
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DonkeyApple said:

But thinking logically, the two tonne EV isn’t the future but a stepping stone to where we are going to be in a decade’s time.
What do you think the average weight of products sold by Porsche was in the last 12 months, I would be amazed if it was under 2.5tons let alone 2tons. The current Range Rover is not far off 3tons, weight isn't an issue just for EVs.

On the other hand a Kona EV weighs 1640kg, barely 100kg more than a Focus, and has over 250 miles range, lithium ion batteries are fine. Its the cost thats the issue.

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 26th August 11:30

Heres Johnny

7,175 posts

123 months

Monday 26th August 2019
quotequote all
gangzoom said:
What do you think the average weight of products sold by Porsche was in the last 12 months, I would be amazed if it was under 2.5tons let alone 2tons. The current Range Rover is not far off 3tons, weight isn't an issue just for EVs.

On the other hand a Kona EV weighs 1640kg, barely 100kg more than a Focus, and has over 250 miles range, lithium ion batteries are fine. Its the cost thats the issue.

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 26th August 11:30
911 - 1.5 to 1.7
Boxster - 1.4
Cayman - 1.4
Panamera - 2 to 2.2
Macan - 1.9 to 2.0
Cayenne - 2 to 2.5

I think you should be amazed as you'd have to look hard to find one over 2.5 ton

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Monday 26th August 2019
quotequote all
coetzeeh said:
^^^ agree 100%. No doubt Battery plays a vital and key role.

Also feels as if the anticipated uptake and growth in EV may have been overestimated.

For example the SMMT Jan forecast suggested 86k new UK registrations 2019 vs 59k for 2018 (both plug in and pure Battery).

The July forecast been revised down to 59k for 2019 - the same as 2018 - although Plug ins declined and Battery increased (14k pure Battery vehicles registered to end July according to SMMT).

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2019/08/uk-new-car-and-van-...
It’s partly the issue that EVs are still a luxury good that no one needs and few can afford but I suspect this year’s slow down is probably due to the general slow down in consumer excess consumption combine with many potential buyers holding off until the new BIK rules come into play?

DonkeyApple

54,923 posts

168 months

Monday 26th August 2019
quotequote all
gangzoom said:
DonkeyApple said:

But thinking logically, the two tonne EV isn’t the future but a stepping stone to where we are going to be in a decade’s time.
What do you think the average weight of products sold by Porsche was in the last 12 months, I would be amazed if it was under 2.5tons let alone 2tons. The current Range Rover is not far off 3tons, weight isn't an issue just for EVs.

On the other hand a Kona EV weighs 1640kg, barely 100kg more than a Focus, and has over 250 miles range, lithium ion batteries are fine. Its the cost thats the issue.

Edited by gangzoom on Monday 26th August 11:30
I don’t think the long term future of any type of vehicle lies in being an inefficient heffer. The big cc petrol engine is going to disappear in conjunction with the rise of EV but once the EV market is a significant part of the car market then the focus will switch to the real issue which is mass. The 30 year trend of ever heavier cars with ever more general consumption in both build and running is going to contract and it will begin with more direct taxation on all heffers regardless of what type of engine they have.

Smaller and lighter cars being used less often is the only actually environmentally sound long term solution.

gangzoom

6,251 posts

214 months

Monday 26th August 2019
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DonkeyApple said:
Smaller and lighter cars being used less often is the only actually environmentally sound long term solution.
But as its pretty obvious no one buys a Tesla (or any car) on actual environmental issues.

Cycling is by far the best way to commute in any UK city but most people rather sit in metal boxes queuing in traffic.

Car may get lighter but EVs don't need to be that much heavier as the kona shows.

gangzoom

6,251 posts

214 months

Monday 26th August 2019
quotequote all
Heres Johnny said:
911 - 1.5 to 1.7
Boxster - 1.4
Cayman - 1.4
Panamera - 2 to 2.2
Macan - 1.9 to 2.0
Cayenne - 2 to 2.5

I think you should be amazed as you'd have to look hard to find one over 2.5 ton
Doesn't the Macan and Cayenne make up the vast majority of Porsche sales? So maybe not 2.5 tons but lets not pretend the days of sub 1 ton cars are coming back anytime soon.
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