Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[jamoor]

ZesPak said:

The model s got a massive price cut earlier this year which didn't do good for depreciation.

Of course, everything lines up for EVs now. Diesel is being demonized, a lot of people looking for second hand ev but no availability,...

It'll take another 5j for the market to even out. I'll also be curious how the model S's currently on the street hold up after 10+years.

Yes good point, with time technologies get cheaper which goes against EVs.

[anonymous-user]

Tesla tops ncap safety again. 'stand out performer'.

autopilot city safety looking very impressive vs last year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&...

The Autopilot-powered lane assist system performed flawlessly based on the tests and it received a perfect score.

[Dave Hedgehog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C38M9cWDi_U

[Some Gump]

jamoor said:

The whole car depreciation thing applies differently to electric cars.

Cars depreciate due to increase in maintanance costs over time, however this isn't the case with EVs instead they are more likely to depreciate due to new technologies being introduced.

The Model S has depreciated in the same manner as an ICE car which I don't think it should. It should retain more value.

Having an electric motor is of no consequence to the longevity of the rusty bits, the bouncy bits, the spinny bits etc etc. Those costs will increase over time just like a normal car.
Tesla have swung around irratically on battery life expectations. We just don't know when that big bill is due. When it is, will it write off the car like a gearbox failure on an old Jag, or will it just be a relatively cheap thing because it's in 10 years time and tech means there's a cheap version out now?

We just don't know that. One can guess, but unless you're an insider at Panasonic i can assume any position is mainly a guess at this stage

[hyphen]

jamoor said:

jjwilde said:

Deutsche Bank reckon Tesla are going to announce the model Y is to start shipping in Q1 2020 and that they are well ahead of schedule on it.

This fits in with the previous rumour that Elon was told to say Q4 2020 so Tesla could be early with a product for once.

This is what happens when you have experience.

They are building the Y on the 3's platform. If Tesla had been confident in themselves they would have given the earlier date. Instead they chose to play it cautiously, can't blame with with the amount of senior staff who quit the company.

Underpromise and over deliver, always a good idea.

[Throttle Body]

Sambucket said:

Donkey have you even read the road to zero plan? Your comments don't read to me like you have. If you want to pretend to be an authority on EV economics, I'd suggest it's required reading.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reducin...

Thanks for sharing the link to an interesting document. It makes a poor start by having an introduction by, in my opinion, the world's most inept government minister, Chris Grayling. But putting that to one side, there is very little recognition that, with the current blend of power stations, electric cars move emissions from the tailpipe to concentrate them at the powerstation. Surely the plan should set out clear plans to decarbonise powerstations, but it glosses over this. In the absence of this, electric vehicles merely exchange one set of problems for a slightly different set.

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not anti-EV vehicles. I actually see the country's biggest problem to be air pollution rather than climate change, so electric vehicles are a really good thing in many ways. But you can't escape the fact that EVs are not suitable for everyone because they lack the immense breadth of ability of IC vehicles when it comes to range, refuelling & towing. For a versatile family vehicle that you do some long journeys in, the EV is hopelessly out-done. But that leaves plenty of others where EVs are perfectly appropriate.

[anonymous-user]

You are correct the document focuses more on local emissions than global co2. Rightly in my opinion. Best to think of them as separate problems.

However I would disagree with your stats. Even an ev in Poland which burns mostly coal has lower lifecycle co2 than an IcE, well to pump to wheel.

You are also correct that Ice is the better choice for many people today. But the tipping point isn’t far away and laying the foundations is the current activity. It’s a long term plan, and slow and gradual increase in adoption is the sensible strategy. High earners will be the early adopters, followed by company car drivers, but affordability will quickly improve.

By 2025 hopefully 10 or even 20 pc of new sales will be ev. Subsidies will be phased out but groundwork and infrastructure will be more developed.

Tesla are aiming for 2m sales by 2025. About 3%. The plan is not to kill IcE overnight.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 4th December 22:09

[hyphen]

Sambucket said:

The plan is not to kill IcE overnight.

That was the plan, they just failed

[hyphen]

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...

Edited by hyphen on Thursday 5th December 08:35

[jamoor]

Some Gump said:

jamoor said:

The whole car depreciation thing applies differently to electric cars.

Cars depreciate due to increase in maintanance costs over time, however this isn't the case with EVs instead they are more likely to depreciate due to new technologies being introduced.

The Model S has depreciated in the same manner as an ICE car which I don't think it should. It should retain more value.

Having an electric motor is of no consequence to the longevity of the rusty bits, the bouncy bits, the spinny bits etc etc. Those costs will increase over time just like a normal car.
Tesla have swung around irratically on battery life expectations. We just don't know when that big bill is due. When it is, will it write off the car like a gearbox failure on an old Jag, or will it just be a relatively cheap thing because it's in 10 years time and tech means there's a cheap version out now?

We just don't know that. One can guess, but unless you're an insider at Panasonic i can assume any position is mainly a guess at this stage

Those parts aren’t expensive and should be easy to replace, if the car isn’t worth £800 then it will be worth replacing.

It’s the engine and ancillaries which cost the most to repair usually,

[ZesPak]

hyphen said:

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...


[thumb]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/12/04/16/21664906-7755753-Pictured_a_photo_showing_around_half_of_the_Teslas_waiting_to_re-a-34_1575476281151.jpg[/IMG]

That's terrifying, considering every car there will take at least 15 min to move on.

[coetzeeh]

Latest SMMT numbers are available.

NOV BEV sales 4,652 (3% of total sales)
YTD BEV sales 32,911 (1.5% of total sales)

If we assume all "other imported" areTesla then the brand sold 2405 vehicles in UK for the month - 21st by brand.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrati...

[Gandahar]

Good month for Tesla in the UK in November, their 3 month cycle seems to be repeating as only 200 or so in October. I guess the shipping makes the numbers jump about as well.

Will be intesting to see what figures they get in the rest of Europe.

[Gandahar]

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...


[thumb]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/12/04/16/21664906-7755753-Pictured_a_photo_showing_around_half_of_the_Teslas_waiting_to_re-a-34_1575476281151.jpg[/IMG]

That's terrifying, considering every car there will take at least 15 min to move on.

To be fair that is probably a bit of a one off, California was packed with traffic on the roads not just for Thanksgiving but bad weather forecast and the shopping spree. It's not as bad as Bluewater

Having said that it's still not wonderful. Do they limit the charging time for drivers when that happens so people don't hog the charger?

My dumb question, if it runs out of charge do the USA equivalent of the AA just tow them to a charging station? I assume they cannot charge the vehicle at the roadside to get them to the nearest charger?

[Mikehig]

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...


[thumb]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/12/04/16/21664906-7755753-Pictured_a_photo_showing_around_half_of_the_Teslas_waiting_to_re-a-34_1575476281151.jpg[/IMG]

That's terrifying, considering every car there will take at least 15 min to move on.

Puzzling: don't these cars have some clever tech which warns when chargers are busy so the driver can divert to somewhere quieter? Or does this mean that all of the chargers in the area were similarly overloaded? Or were there extenuating factors ( other than Thanksgiving)?

[SWoll]

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...


[thumb]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/12/04/16/21664906-7755753-Pictured_a_photo_showing_around_half_of_the_Teslas_waiting_to_re-a-34_1575476281151.jpg[/IMG]

That's terrifying, considering every car there will take at least 15 min to move on.

One supercharger location, in the most Tesla dense part of the world, on Black Friday/Thanksgiving weekend. Hardly a trend.

[hyphen]

Mikehig said:

Puzzling: don't these cars have some clever tech which warns when chargers are busy so the driver can divert to somewhere quieter? ...

Yes, Musk could have his top software engineers working on that, but they are instead adding Paint applications so you can doodle whilst in the queue, and AI auto wipers that don't work as well as sensors, and other random crap normal companies would stick in a Backlog.

[hyphen]

SWoll said:

One supercharger location, in the most Tesla dense part of the world, on Black Friday/Thanksgiving weekend. Hardly a trend.

It's a global PR disaster that will stick in new car buyers minds.

[RichardM5]

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...


[thumb]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/12/04/16/21664906-7755753-Pictured_a_photo_showing_around_half_of_the_Teslas_waiting_to_re-a-34_1575476281151.jpg[/IMG]

That's terrifying, considering every car there will take at least 15 min to move on.

Someone on did a rough calculation based on the number of cars and number of Supercharger bays available at that station, it ended up as about a 30-40 minute wait as there were something like 40 Supercharger bays there (this was California not the UK with just a couple of bays at each location). I believe there were also sizeable queues at gas stations too due to Thanksgiving and the weather, but that's not news.

Edit : Reading the Daily Fail article, 50 cars, 40 bays. You can get a significant range in 15 minutes so long as you're not above 75% charge to start with, the Daily Fail says 75 minutes, that's for 10% - 100% which no one ever does at a Supercharger station.

Edited by RichardM5 on Thursday 5th December 12:14

[T-195]

RichardM5 said:

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

Video and pics of half a mile queues of Tesla drivers waiting in line for chargers in California...

So that's why they introduced the Netflix app recently

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7755753/C...


[thumb]https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/12/04/16/21664906-7755753-Pictured_a_photo_showing_around_half_of_the_Teslas_waiting_to_re-a-34_1575476281151.jpg[/IMG]

That's terrifying, considering every car there will take at least 15 min to move on.

Someone on did a rough calculation based on the number of cars and number of Supercharger bays available at that station, it ended up as about a 30-40 minute wait as there were something like 40 Supercharger bays there (this was California not the UK with just a couple of bays at each location). I believe there were also sizeable queues at gas stations too due to Thanksgiving and the weather, but that's not news.

Edit : Reading the Daily Fail article, 50 cars, 40 bays. You can get a significant range in 15 minutes so long as you're not above 75% charge to start with, the Daily Fail says 75 minutes, that's for 10% - 100% which no one ever does at a Supercharger station.


[footnote]Edited by RichardM5 on Thursday 5th December
12:14[/footnote]

Of course there were also massive queues at the petrol stations too. Nothing to back this up?

Elon Musk is The Daily Fail.