Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
tr3a said:
Can we all appreciate for a moment how this thread started with the premise that Tesla was 'unlikely to survive'?
I've just sold my TR, which went halfway to the outright purchase of a Tesla Model 3. No regrets whatsoever.
I'm letting as many people drive it as I can, because it's the driving that sold me. Or rather: the pathetic joke of my 'modern' daily dinosaur juice burner after I drove a Tesla for the first time. It convinced me that the internal combustion engine is well past its sell by date and that we should stop burning stuff asap - or we ourselves are unlikely to survive.
That it’s a great (whilst flawed) product isn’t the most important part of the debate. The car could be perfect. It could be the Pippa Middleton’s Arse of cars, it wouldn’t matter.I've just sold my TR, which went halfway to the outright purchase of a Tesla Model 3. No regrets whatsoever.
I'm letting as many people drive it as I can, because it's the driving that sold me. Or rather: the pathetic joke of my 'modern' daily dinosaur juice burner after I drove a Tesla for the first time. It convinced me that the internal combustion engine is well past its sell by date and that we should stop burning stuff asap - or we ourselves are unlikely to survive.
Teala’s Ability to survive depends on them making money. As yet, they have not.
Some Gump said:
That it’s a great (whilst flawed) product isn’t the most important part of the debate. The car could be perfect. It could be the Pippa Middleton’s Arse of cars, it wouldn’t matter.
Teala’s Ability to survive depends on them making money. As yet, they have not.
The next 12 months will be a good index, once china’s up to full production and the initial demand for Europe etc is over it will be interesting to see if stock builds up or demand still outstrips supply Teala’s Ability to survive depends on them making money. As yet, they have not.
Some Gump said:
That it’s a great (whilst flawed) product isn’t the most important part of the debate. The car could be perfect. It could be the Pippa Middleton’s Arse of cars, it wouldn’t matter.
Teala’s Ability to survive depends on them making money. As yet, they have not.
But they easily raise money on the back of future potential, whenever they need it. So arguably as long as they can do this, it doesn't really matter in the short term if they show profit. They can buy market share with cheap products.. They have enough cash for 18 months easily, and no reason to think they can't raise again, should they need to.They have a chinese PM who is 100% behind the company too. Teala’s Ability to survive depends on them making money. As yet, they have not.
none of this equals success, but the chances of them going bust in next 12 months are as low as they have ever been.
Yes they have battened down the hatches, cut costs, and slashed investment. This whilst clashing with their semi/FSD growth story PR, is sensible to do given a recession that is also forcing similar hands from other auto companies.
As mentioned above they have been close to death before, but they are far from death now.
Heres Johnny said:
tr3a said:
Can we all appreciate for a moment how this thread started with the premise that Tesla was 'unlikely to survive'?
I've just sold my TR, which went halfway to the outright purchase of a Tesla Model 3. No regrets whatsoever.
I'm letting as many people drive it as I can, because it's the driving that sold me. Or rather: the pathetic joke of my 'modern' daily dinosaur juice burner after I drove a Tesla for the first time. It convinced me that the internal combustion engine is well past its sell by date and that we should stop burning stuff asap - or we ourselves are unlikely to survive.
The share price is down about 30% since the thread startedI've just sold my TR, which went halfway to the outright purchase of a Tesla Model 3. No regrets whatsoever.
I'm letting as many people drive it as I can, because it's the driving that sold me. Or rather: the pathetic joke of my 'modern' daily dinosaur juice burner after I drove a Tesla for the first time. It convinced me that the internal combustion engine is well past its sell by date and that we should stop burning stuff asap - or we ourselves are unlikely to survive.
Musk himself has admitted they have been close to going under a few times
He has also been done for a variety of misdemeanours in his role as CEO
I think the question was a very valid question back then, and I don't think they're out of the woods so still valid today.
The thread is not whether the car is any good, its whether the company can sustain the costs associated with delivering it and doing all the other things a responsbile company has to do. At the moment, the latter is still proving to be a challenge.
Sambucket said:
But they easily raise money on the back of future potential, whenever they need it. So arguably as long as they can do this, it doesn't really matter in the short term if they show profit. They can buy market share with cheap products.. They have enough cash for 18 months easily, and no reason to think they can't raise again, should they need to.They have a chinese PM who is 100% behind the company too.
none of this equals success, but the chances of them going bust in next 12 months are as low as they have ever been.
Yes they have battened down the hatches, cut costs, and slashed investment. This whilst clashing with their semi/FSD growth story PR, is sensible to do given a recession that is also forcing similar hands from other auto companies.
As mentioned above they have been close to death before, but they are far from death now.
When you say there’s no reason to think they can’t raise money again, raising money is somewhat predicated on the injection of cash being able to increase the value of the company by more, if the cash doesn’t do that you either end up with negative equity or share value erosion depending how you raised the cash. The belief in the future of the company is sliding from stratospheric levels to merely fantastic levels, it’s going down, before Rob et al start on about the wonders of the product, the current price still puts it as a major future player, but few now believe its going to single handedly close down all the German car manufacturers and have FSD in 3 months. Put simply their ability to raise cash has reduced dramatically with the slump in the share price as the current debt compared to market cap has significantly worsened.none of this equals success, but the chances of them going bust in next 12 months are as low as they have ever been.
Yes they have battened down the hatches, cut costs, and slashed investment. This whilst clashing with their semi/FSD growth story PR, is sensible to do given a recession that is also forcing similar hands from other auto companies.
As mentioned above they have been close to death before, but they are far from death now.
Heres Johnny said:
Put simply their ability to raise cash has reduced dramatically with the slump in the share price as the current debt compared to market cap has significantly worsened.
Except they raised $2.7bn in May (8th) and their share price then was about the same as now ($241 vs $245).Heres Johnny said:
Sambucket said:
But they easily raise money on the back of future potential, whenever they need it. So arguably as long as they can do this, it doesn't really matter in the short term if they show profit. They can buy market share with cheap products.. They have enough cash for 18 months easily, and no reason to think they can't raise again, should they need to.They have a chinese PM who is 100% behind the company too.
none of this equals success, but the chances of them going bust in next 12 months are as low as they have ever been.
Yes they have battened down the hatches, cut costs, and slashed investment. This whilst clashing with their semi/FSD growth story PR, is sensible to do given a recession that is also forcing similar hands from other auto companies.
As mentioned above they have been close to death before, but they are far from death now.
When you say there’s no reason to think they can’t raise money again, raising money is somewhat predicated on the injection of cash being able to increase the value of the company by more, if the cash doesn’t do that you either end up with negative equity or share value erosion depending how you raised the cash. The belief in the future of the company is sliding from stratospheric levels to merely fantastic levels, it’s going down, before Rob et al start on about the wonders of the product, the current price still puts it as a major future player, but few now believe its going to single handedly close down all the German car manufacturers and have FSD in 3 months. Put simply their ability to raise cash has reduced dramatically with the slump in the share price as the current debt compared to market cap has significantly worsened.none of this equals success, but the chances of them going bust in next 12 months are as low as they have ever been.
Yes they have battened down the hatches, cut costs, and slashed investment. This whilst clashing with their semi/FSD growth story PR, is sensible to do given a recession that is also forcing similar hands from other auto companies.
As mentioned above they have been close to death before, but they are far from death now.
RobDickinson said:
Heres Johnny said:
Put simply their ability to raise cash has reduced dramatically with the slump in the share price as the current debt compared to market cap has significantly worsened.
Except they raised $2.7bn in May (8th) and their share price then was about the same as now ($241 vs $245).In fund raising it’s not the amount but the cost that is the indicator. So go and look at just how much it cost to raise that money versus what it would have cost if Musk has raised the year before when he didn’t need to. And as well as cost there is the small matter of who that is also the other relevant metric.
RobDickinson said:
Heres Johnny said:
Bless, I think thats a teenagers response when they realise they were in the wrong
So where is this slump in the share price genius? Same as in may.They are currently in that zone where if they miss they are going to be hammered but should they exceed expectations then we should see a strong relief rally towards 300.
its an interesting debate. I now have a Tesla and I think the M3 is the best EV on the market on a kind of performance / £ basis, and in its class, as good as any ICE
but my view is that will highly likely change and others will leapfrog them - Polestar 2 is an example of such on a 1 yr view
partly why I decided to take a 2 year lease
however the equity value has very little to do with the cars, or whats happening in the short term. It has everything to do with the perception of multi year growth. In a no-growth world, any company with, or thought capable of delivering, multi year compound growth - generally in REVENUES not profits - has tended to get chased up to very very eye watering valuation levels. Also a consequence of cheap money and a dearth of good investments.
So Tesla's ability to keep raising money isn't just about their fundamentals as fundamentals stopped driving some of these shareprices a long time ago.
And, its valuation isn't actually that high relative to other concept stocks:
Tesla $55bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $25bn ... ev/sales of 2.2x
Beyond Meat - lab grown meat alternative - up 600% YTD since IPO... $9bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $261m ... ev/sales of 34x, falling to 22x on 2020 forecasts
Spotify - music streaming - $20bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $7bn ...ev/sales of 3x
Market Axess - electronic bond trading - up 56% YTD .... $12bn EV vs $500m .... ev/sales of 24x
but my view is that will highly likely change and others will leapfrog them - Polestar 2 is an example of such on a 1 yr view
partly why I decided to take a 2 year lease
however the equity value has very little to do with the cars, or whats happening in the short term. It has everything to do with the perception of multi year growth. In a no-growth world, any company with, or thought capable of delivering, multi year compound growth - generally in REVENUES not profits - has tended to get chased up to very very eye watering valuation levels. Also a consequence of cheap money and a dearth of good investments.
So Tesla's ability to keep raising money isn't just about their fundamentals as fundamentals stopped driving some of these shareprices a long time ago.
And, its valuation isn't actually that high relative to other concept stocks:
Tesla $55bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $25bn ... ev/sales of 2.2x
Beyond Meat - lab grown meat alternative - up 600% YTD since IPO... $9bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $261m ... ev/sales of 34x, falling to 22x on 2020 forecasts
Spotify - music streaming - $20bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $7bn ...ev/sales of 3x
Market Axess - electronic bond trading - up 56% YTD .... $12bn EV vs $500m .... ev/sales of 24x
squirdan said:
its an interesting debate. I now have a Tesla and I think the M3 is the best EV on the market on a kind of performance / £ basis, and in its class, as good as any ICE
but my view is that will highly likely change and others will leapfrog them - Polestar 2 is an example of such on a 1 yr view
partly why I decided to take a 2 year lease
however the equity value has very little to do with the cars, or whats happening in the short term. It has everything to do with the perception of multi year growth. In a no-growth world, any company with, or thought capable of delivering, multi year compound growth - generally in REVENUES not profits - has tended to get chased up to very very eye watering valuation levels. Also a consequence of cheap money and a dearth of good investments.
So Tesla's ability to keep raising money isn't just about their fundamentals as fundamentals stopped driving some of these shareprices a long time ago.
And, its valuation isn't actually that high relative to other concept stocks:
Tesla $55bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $25bn ... ev/sales of 2.2x
Beyond Meat - lab grown meat alternative - up 600% YTD since IPO... $9bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $261m ... ev/sales of 34x, falling to 22x on 2020 forecasts
Spotify - music streaming - $20bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $7bn ...ev/sales of 3x
Market Axess - electronic bond trading - up 56% YTD .... $12bn EV vs $500m .... ev/sales of 24x
Is this Tesla isn't actually a car company valuation? but my view is that will highly likely change and others will leapfrog them - Polestar 2 is an example of such on a 1 yr view
partly why I decided to take a 2 year lease
however the equity value has very little to do with the cars, or whats happening in the short term. It has everything to do with the perception of multi year growth. In a no-growth world, any company with, or thought capable of delivering, multi year compound growth - generally in REVENUES not profits - has tended to get chased up to very very eye watering valuation levels. Also a consequence of cheap money and a dearth of good investments.
So Tesla's ability to keep raising money isn't just about their fundamentals as fundamentals stopped driving some of these shareprices a long time ago.
And, its valuation isn't actually that high relative to other concept stocks:
Tesla $55bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $25bn ... ev/sales of 2.2x
Beyond Meat - lab grown meat alternative - up 600% YTD since IPO... $9bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $261m ... ev/sales of 34x, falling to 22x on 2020 forecasts
Spotify - music streaming - $20bn EV vs forecast 2019 revenues of $7bn ...ev/sales of 3x
Market Axess - electronic bond trading - up 56% YTD .... $12bn EV vs $500m .... ev/sales of 24x
Market Axess mades money and has a PE of about 60. Spotify is another POS which will struggle. Too many players in the market. Music is a commodity now. Beyond meat has scale on its side but I think it's an overvalued POS. For balance, VAG is valued at 28% of Revenue. 2019 will be a defining moment for Tesla. I predict even bigger losses this quarter. Good cars for sure but too expensive
Tbh whether 2019 is a turning point for Tesla shareprice or not has much more to do with whether the market falls out of love with loss making gogo growth stocks.
In fact, We Work train crash is possibly a more important factor than how many cars they do or don’t flog this quarter
IMHO
In fact, We Work train crash is possibly a more important factor than how many cars they do or don’t flog this quarter
IMHO
Musk has said in his lawsuit defence that calling someone paedo was a common South African thing to do when he was a kid, and it doesn't mean you are actually calling somone a paedophile.
If that's his best defence, he is f
ked 
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/16...
If that's his best defence, he is f
ked https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/16...
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff