How long do you expect your EV's battery to last?
Discussion
For clarification: I was attempting to answer the question "why do you think the prospect of having to spend £10k+ replacing an ICE (jag xfr) is less likely than the prospect of having to spend £10k+ on a replacement tesla battery pack (model S 85D)". This was what I understood from the term 'longevity', given the context of the rest of the thread. I presumed it was clear that the scenario "ICE vs battery: replace nothing required to run them and see which lasts the longest" was not what I was trying to argue in favour of ICE...
No.
And an early hybrid needing a battery change? Unlikely that it happened within 5 years (which is warranty on Toyota) and even then mk1 and mk2 Prius' batteries can be sorted for under a grand.
Sorry - what I said in the brackets was clearly b
ks. The bit in brackets was me thinking of parts like pistons, conrods, crankshafts (i.e. non-service items inside the engine block), which I have never had to have replaced. The service items you listed, which I have replaced (timing belt, plugs, filters and oil), are part of the running costs (not what I had meant to compare in response to 'longevity'). I've never had to replace a clutch (although I do know people who have), nor a gearbox, nor did I need to replace the turbo on my one turbocharged car. Also, at no point did I suggest that a 10-yr old car would be a "trouble-free prospect" - just that I think the probability of needing to pay over £10k+ for an engine replacement after 10 years is lower than the probability of needing to replace £10k+ of tesla batteries. All, I acknowledged in my last post, based purely on speculative prejudice.
In terms of prius replacement, they may well have been replaced under warranty the first time - my point was that they needed replacing in a much shorter lifespan than a whole engine typically would (again, the subject of the longevity comparison given the comparable cost of ICE vs tesla battery pack). Hence my concern that an old battery-powered car (e.g. 10yr old Tesla) would be more likely to need its battery replacing (cost £10k+) than an ICE-powered car would need its engine replacing (e.g. 10yr old jag) - a similar cost item, which would need much lower cost items replaced more regularly in order to keep it running.
Just out of interest - do people reading this think it's best to move a car on when it reaches a certain age? Is there an age where you would expect to have to fork out the cost of a new battery pack on repairing an ICE?
Evanivitch said:
Jag_luvver said:
My (admittedly limited) experience of car ownership has always started with cars around 10 years old, and at no point has the engine (or any part of it) needed replacing.
None of it? No timing belt, no clutch, no spark plugs, alternators, filters or oil? Even a lot of old TDi has seen a turbo or injector change. But you're adament that a 10yr old car is a trouble-free prospect?No.
And an early hybrid needing a battery change? Unlikely that it happened within 5 years (which is warranty on Toyota) and even then mk1 and mk2 Prius' batteries can be sorted for under a grand.
Edited by Evanivitch on Thursday 18th January 22:26
ks. The bit in brackets was me thinking of parts like pistons, conrods, crankshafts (i.e. non-service items inside the engine block), which I have never had to have replaced. The service items you listed, which I have replaced (timing belt, plugs, filters and oil), are part of the running costs (not what I had meant to compare in response to 'longevity'). I've never had to replace a clutch (although I do know people who have), nor a gearbox, nor did I need to replace the turbo on my one turbocharged car. Also, at no point did I suggest that a 10-yr old car would be a "trouble-free prospect" - just that I think the probability of needing to pay over £10k+ for an engine replacement after 10 years is lower than the probability of needing to replace £10k+ of tesla batteries. All, I acknowledged in my last post, based purely on speculative prejudice. In terms of prius replacement, they may well have been replaced under warranty the first time - my point was that they needed replacing in a much shorter lifespan than a whole engine typically would (again, the subject of the longevity comparison given the comparable cost of ICE vs tesla battery pack). Hence my concern that an old battery-powered car (e.g. 10yr old Tesla) would be more likely to need its battery replacing (cost £10k+) than an ICE-powered car would need its engine replacing (e.g. 10yr old jag) - a similar cost item, which would need much lower cost items replaced more regularly in order to keep it running.
Just out of interest - do people reading this think it's best to move a car on when it reaches a certain age? Is there an age where you would expect to have to fork out the cost of a new battery pack on repairing an ICE?
Edited by Jag_luvver on Friday 19th January 20:52
Almost my entire motoring history has been running old sheds. I typically buy what were high end expensive cars that suffer shocking depreciation then run them until they get too expensive to repair. Typically, this has been due to corrosion, not mechanical issues, although on one Alfa (ironically, at that point, the newest and most expensive car I had bought) I had to replace the engine.
General mechanical/electrical bits and bobs I do myself, and provided the costs are reasonable for parts, there isn’t anything I won’t tackle, but once the rot sets in, I lose interest very quickly.
Thinking back, rust has been the end of every car I’ve owned, except perhaps a truly dire old Volvo I once owned for about 3 weeks.
As far as my recent purchase of a new C350e PHEV goes, I am hoping that the battery will last a good few years. Even nicer would be if a higher capacity retrofit became available at some point in the future, but I suspect that isn’t likely.
General mechanical/electrical bits and bobs I do myself, and provided the costs are reasonable for parts, there isn’t anything I won’t tackle, but once the rot sets in, I lose interest very quickly.
Thinking back, rust has been the end of every car I’ve owned, except perhaps a truly dire old Volvo I once owned for about 3 weeks.
As far as my recent purchase of a new C350e PHEV goes, I am hoping that the battery will last a good few years. Even nicer would be if a higher capacity retrofit became available at some point in the future, but I suspect that isn’t likely.
Rust and fire (electrical fault...) got a couple of my previous cars, both when they were over 20 years old. So on that experience I should probably shy away from anything over 20 years old, and put that down as the age when the repair bills get too big to stomach.
What made you change from running sheds to getting a new merc hybrid? And how long are you planning on keeping it?
What made you change from running sheds to getting a new merc hybrid? And how long are you planning on keeping it?
I still run one shed, a '56 reg Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland. It classes as 'Alternative Fuel' as I had it converted to LPG when I got it. I didn't really have a sensible reason to move away from all sheds for the fleet. One of the cars, a 2001 Alfa 166 had reached the point where I didn't want to mess with it. My MOT man warned me it was starting to rot so I decided its time had come. Bit of a shame really as mechanically it was still in good order. I really wanted a Tesla S but just couldn't bring myself to spend £70k on a new one or £50k on a used one. We started looking at used hybrids of various sorts but most of the stuff that appealed was pretty spendy, then having talked ourselves into a big budget, we drifted in to a new one when I spotted the C350e. We did look at used ones as they are much better value of course, but still not cheap, and decided that if we were spending a lot, we wanted what we wanted, not what was available IYSWIM. Part of it was I just wanted to buy one new car before I die as up until that point, I had always had used cars. Financially speaking, ridiculous, but there's more to life than the bottom line.
Interestingly, as soon as we got it, I got a bad case of buyers remorse and if I'm honest, I still have a bit of that. There are two things about the car that disappoint. The battery range (but I knew what it was going to be going into it and decided to live with it) and the god-awful noise the ICE makes when it is cold (which I didn't know about until it was too late, and I really dislike it). Of course, the recently announced C400e is going to be a better car, with at least double and maybe even 3 times the electric only range, another 40bhp of electric power, faster charging and a few more BHP of ICE power courtesy of an entirely new engine (which I bet is quiet....), plus a load of fancy updates to the interior. That all makes me wish I'd waited as well. Then again, you'd never buy anything on that basis.
I'm lusting after the I-Pace at the moment, but strongly suspect I'll have to get over it and just keep the Merc a long time as we planned on. By a long time, I mean at least 10 years, or at least until the pain of buying it has been erased by time. We do very few miles and frankly, having the cars we do is pretty damned ridiculous. We have the Jeep & the Merc as mentioned, a Westfield we've had for 27 years since I built it, plus I am currently building another 2 seat 'sports' thing. I keep thinking we really should get rid of the Jeep, but it is so handy when you need a skip with wheels or if it snows/floods.
Interestingly, as soon as we got it, I got a bad case of buyers remorse and if I'm honest, I still have a bit of that. There are two things about the car that disappoint. The battery range (but I knew what it was going to be going into it and decided to live with it) and the god-awful noise the ICE makes when it is cold (which I didn't know about until it was too late, and I really dislike it). Of course, the recently announced C400e is going to be a better car, with at least double and maybe even 3 times the electric only range, another 40bhp of electric power, faster charging and a few more BHP of ICE power courtesy of an entirely new engine (which I bet is quiet....), plus a load of fancy updates to the interior. That all makes me wish I'd waited as well. Then again, you'd never buy anything on that basis.
I'm lusting after the I-Pace at the moment, but strongly suspect I'll have to get over it and just keep the Merc a long time as we planned on. By a long time, I mean at least 10 years, or at least until the pain of buying it has been erased by time. We do very few miles and frankly, having the cars we do is pretty damned ridiculous. We have the Jeep & the Merc as mentioned, a Westfield we've had for 27 years since I built it, plus I am currently building another 2 seat 'sports' thing. I keep thinking we really should get rid of the Jeep, but it is so handy when you need a skip with wheels or if it snows/floods.
Too Drunk to Funk said:
Heres Johnny said:
Jag_luvver said:
...but I'd not be willing to take the plunge on a 10yr old Tesla with an original battery
And you wouldn't get me anywhere near a 10 year old Jag. ked batteries.RobDickinson said:
Isn't that tesla taxi up to 500,000kms now?
At 300, 000 he had 93 percent battery. And that's all fast charged.
For tesla I'm sure the battery won't be a problem, unlike early leafs
At 200,000 miles the battery was replaced because the firmware wasn't compatible with a chemistry issue that occurs at high mileage.At 300, 000 he had 93 percent battery. And that's all fast charged.
For tesla I'm sure the battery won't be a problem, unlike early leafs
Personally, I think that's a cop-out on Tesla's part.
Evanivitch said:
RobDickinson said:
Isn't that tesla taxi up to 500,000kms now?
At 300, 000 he had 93 percent battery. And that's all fast charged.
For tesla I'm sure the battery won't be a problem, unlike early leafs
At 200,000 miles the battery was replaced because the firmware wasn't compatible with a chemistry issue that occurs at high mileage.At 300, 000 he had 93 percent battery. And that's all fast charged.
For tesla I'm sure the battery won't be a problem, unlike early leafs
Personally, I think that's a cop-out on Tesla's part.
But either way, a diesel with 200k miles would be killing everything it drove past. I put 85k on a bmw 6 series diesel, well maintained etc and it wasn’t pleasant to be close to the back when cold.
Heres Johnny said:
Evanivitch said:
RobDickinson said:
Isn't that tesla taxi up to 500,000kms now?
At 300, 000 he had 93 percent battery. And that's all fast charged.
For tesla I'm sure the battery won't be a problem, unlike early leafs
At 200,000 miles the battery was replaced because the firmware wasn't compatible with a chemistry issue that occurs at high mileage.At 300, 000 he had 93 percent battery. And that's all fast charged.
For tesla I'm sure the battery won't be a problem, unlike early leafs
Personally, I think that's a cop-out on Tesla's part.
But either way, a diesel with 200k miles would be killing everything it drove past. I put 85k on a bmw 6 series diesel, well maintained etc and it wasn’t pleasant to be close to the back when cold.
Yes battery degredation wasn't a big issue for that car, but what's to suggest there wasn't another critical issue with the battery beyond the firmware?
This example is constantly rolled out in the discussion of longevity for EVs, but it's fundamentally undermined by the battery replacement.
Evanivitch said:
Because blaming firmware is an easy way to hide many sins.
Yes battery degredation wasn't a big issue for that car, but what's to suggest there wasn't another critical issue with the battery beyond the firmware?
This example is constantly rolled out in the discussion of longevity for EVs, but it's fundamentally undermined by the battery replacement.
Would you prefer they just did a recall on cars with 200k miles on the clock? Or offered manufacturer support to an out of warranty failure? It amounts to the same thing. Stuff happens, manufacturers deal with it. Yes battery degredation wasn't a big issue for that car, but what's to suggest there wasn't another critical issue with the battery beyond the firmware?
This example is constantly rolled out in the discussion of longevity for EVs, but it's fundamentally undermined by the battery replacement.
200k miles is still reasonable.
I know how much my 8 year old Jaguar cost between 85,000 and 105,000.
Sealed for life gearboxes that aren't, cambelt changes, general engine related stuff that never seemed to cost less than £400 to fix, issues with climate control,
My personal experience with older cars would make me choose an 8yr old EV over ICE.
I know how much my 8 year old Jaguar cost between 85,000 and 105,000.
Sealed for life gearboxes that aren't, cambelt changes, general engine related stuff that never seemed to cost less than £400 to fix, issues with climate control,
My personal experience with older cars would make me choose an 8yr old EV over ICE.
Jaybmw said:
Boys am I reading that vegas taxi link wrong or does it say they replaced it's 12v battery for the $190 and not it's main motor battery. Does it even have a normal car battery for the mundane stuff ?
Haven’t bothered reading the link but they do have a 12v battery as well as the main big one.Your ICE powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
Your EV powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
(i should know, i design the them!)
The difference? The EV can tell you how "knackered" it's battery is! The ICE relies on the buyer having 1) some mechanical skill to assess the (likely) state of the powertrain and 2) often a lot of luck
An ICE car at 10yo and 150k miles is, effectively worthless.
Your EV powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
(i should know, i design the them!)
The difference? The EV can tell you how "knackered" it's battery is! The ICE relies on the buyer having 1) some mechanical skill to assess the (likely) state of the powertrain and 2) often a lot of luck
An ICE car at 10yo and 150k miles is, effectively worthless.
Max_Torque said:
Your ICE powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
Your EV powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
(i should know, i design the them!)
The difference? The EV can tell you how "knackered" it's battery is! The ICE relies on the buyer having 1) some mechanical skill to assess the (likely) state of the powertrain and 2) often a lot of luck
An ICE car at 10yo and 150k miles is, effectively worthless.
and certainly well past the point of the manufacturer making any money out of them!Your EV powered car is designed for a service life of 150k miles and 10 years
(i should know, i design the them!)
The difference? The EV can tell you how "knackered" it's battery is! The ICE relies on the buyer having 1) some mechanical skill to assess the (likely) state of the powertrain and 2) often a lot of luck
An ICE car at 10yo and 150k miles is, effectively worthless.
Tesla's saying 15 years the last time they had a 'breakthrough' in 2013 (it was in one of their blog posts, I can't for the life of me find the citation right now though). Although Tesla do have a track record of using best case scenarios for their statements. I'd say in a UK climate with 'moderate' conditions/temperature fluctuations 10-12ish years would be realistic, which I think aligns with Teslas offering of an 8 year battery warranty.
Cost of replacement I imagine will be astronomical, the older Prius's are beginning to give up the ghost and even the smaller hybrid batteries are looking like £2500-4000 depending on the model.
I think with modern technology it can be a reasonably assumption that degradation due to charge cycles can be assumed to be negligible, however I don't believe heat cycle and lifetime degradation is an obstacle that can be overcome with current technology, or anything on the immediate horizon for that matter. It is of my personal opinion (engineering student, currently writing my dissertation on the feasibility of mechanical storage in small plant) that EVs as we know them today will have a relatively short time in the limelight, before another means presents itself, in my mind hydrogen has the greatest likelihood of being the next big thing, but that being said there are actually large breakthroughs being made in less conventional means of energy storage, there is potential for interesting things in the not so distant future.
Cost of replacement I imagine will be astronomical, the older Prius's are beginning to give up the ghost and even the smaller hybrid batteries are looking like £2500-4000 depending on the model.
I think with modern technology it can be a reasonably assumption that degradation due to charge cycles can be assumed to be negligible, however I don't believe heat cycle and lifetime degradation is an obstacle that can be overcome with current technology, or anything on the immediate horizon for that matter. It is of my personal opinion (engineering student, currently writing my dissertation on the feasibility of mechanical storage in small plant) that EVs as we know them today will have a relatively short time in the limelight, before another means presents itself, in my mind hydrogen has the greatest likelihood of being the next big thing, but that being said there are actually large breakthroughs being made in less conventional means of energy storage, there is potential for interesting things in the not so distant future.
RobDickinson said:
Hydrogen / fuel cell is a relic. Totally not going to happen.
I think with the current energy market it is a tech which really can be put on the backburner. However in a future of ever increasing renewables, with their own upsides and downsides I think we are going to be seeing a lot more inefficiencies introduced to our electrical grid, due to the nature of renewable (and those of us who group nuclear in too) for peak load handling we are going to need 'something' that operates better on a short to mid term basis. There is a school of thought that says with renewables we will need an excess of baseload production and some way of storing energy, the currently established means in large scale plant is pumped-storage hydro. However in this field there is other technologies being theorisied, one being battery bank storage, currently dominating small scale plant (think Tesla powerwall but scaled up), however the scalability of this is widely being claimed as infeasible due to costs and resource constraints, the other being flywheels storage, believe it or not mechanical flywheels is an area that in recent years massive efficiency increases have been found in energy recycling efficiency and energy retention, however the third avenue can potentially be hydrogen production.The reason it is widely heralded as infeasible in our current energy market is due to its fairly large degree of inefficiency in hydrogen production, our electricity grid with its reliance on oil & gas powered systems is very efficient with a large degree of load flexibility, however with a fully renewable network these efficiencies are hard to come by, the sacrifices of hydrogen production inefficiencies could be seen as more palatable when compared to other fully renewable alternatives, it also has a large degree of commercialisation if energy companies utilize its potential for portable energy storage.
Edited by caelite on Sunday 21st January 19:48
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