Batteries dead after 5 years

[RobDickinson]

Be interesting to see how the taycan holds up at 350kw /800v

[cj2013]

Football vs Rugby
Xbox vs Playstation
EV vs ICE


It's all a bit boring to read. Basically, there are compelling reasons for both, but you barely hear them above the monotonous drone of confirmation bias and selective data, plus a lot of conjecture.



From what we've seen so far, though, EVs are currently proving to be great for low mileage users and air quality in BUAs. The idea that EVs will be disposable with limit battery life has also been disproven by the sheer volume of second hand EVs knocking on for 5-10 years old with well over 100k on the clock and still in near perfect health.

They aren't yet affordable or practical enough to replace ICE, but at some point they will. It'll all change in the same way that I'm sure most of us will have said at some point "a mobile phone should be a phone, why would I need it to play music or videos?".

[NDNDNDND]

RobDickinson said:

NDNDNDND said:

Ummm, which are those...?

EV wests m3...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk6H4ihxoRA

Or their track car..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bV8SKeQOo

Or offroader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJVtGmEUOpQ

Or the EV etype
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrHdbWdW5TE

Or evie
https://www.mercury.co.nz/Evie

Or 911 conversion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJLdzRJdKrs

Fun commercial/ass produced evs are more limited for now because they are concentrating on the more average cars but even then they all still have good instant torque etc

otherwise Honda have a couple of fun things coming

So, when you say there are 'plenty of fun EVs' you actually mean there are six. Not six models, or types... literally six. Two of those aren't road legal, all of them are one off specials and three of them are rather depressing EV conversions. All of those cars, I'd wager, would be more fun and engaging with their proper engines back in them.

I do get that EV's are the future, and that they're very good for the majority of people for the majority of the time. I'm considering getting one myself, and I've suggested them to my parents and to my in-laws as an EV would suit their usage profiles almost exactly.

But seriously.

Stop with the fanboy bullst.

[anonymous-user]

RobDickinson said:

NDNDNDND said:

Ummm, which are those...?

EV wests m3...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk6H4ihxoRA

Or their track car..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bV8SKeQOo

Or offroader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJVtGmEUOpQ

Or the EV etype
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrHdbWdW5TE

Or evie
https://www.mercury.co.nz/Evie

Or 911 conversion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJLdzRJdKrs

Fun commercial/ass produced evs are more limited for now because they are concentrating on the more average cars but even then they all still have good instant torque etc

otherwise Honda have a couple of fun things coming

Rob, I don’t believe even you believe that that supports your (quite clearly untrue) earlier statement.

[DonkeyApple]

The point at which battery pack segregation is sufficient to significantly impact on the used value of the vehicle, the pack will be refurbished. I don’t really see it as much of an issue down the line.

Early adopters of used EVs will find that point further away at present and in the near future due to the cost of refurbishment currently bit once there are a few million EVs knocking around in any geographic market place then enterprises will set up to profit from the required refurbishment.

There are bound to be some big failures. But there are with ICE and consumers just have to suck it up as they always have.

Re the original French example, it sounds like he’s still in pocket given the subsidies he benefited from at the point of purchase anyway?

[gangzoom]

Just looking at another post on this forum about combustion cars breaking down.....£10k+ repair bills on brands like Audi/BMW - with supposedly amazing build quality.

I find it halirous people on this forum think EVs will become too expensive to keep longterm when we all know just how much combustion cars cost to keep going.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[Heres Johnny]

gangzoom said:

Just looking at another post on this forum about combustion cars breaking down.....£10k+ repair bills on brands like Audi/BMW - with supposedly amazing build quality.

I find it halirous people on this forum think EVs will become too expensive to keep longterm when we all know just how much combustion cars cost to keep going.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

It’s about the odds. A big issue with 1 in every 10k we may think unlucky and maybe think there’s more to the story. 1 in 1000 and we stop suspecting there’s more to it but even then not get too worried. I suspect even the zafira fire issue which made the national press was in the 1 in 500 camp but as there were 250k of them, that’s 500 fires, same with something like IMS issue with Porsche. Automotive companies have a rate per 1000 metric (R/1000), and were still only at 2. Apply that to something like Tesla with 10k in the UK and that’s only 20 cars. There are many more than that having had replacement batteries and replacement motors.

Am i worried, no, not really, the 8 year warranty fixes that and I get the impression that the failure scenarios on the battery are such that it either happens early on as if it’s a manufacturing issue, and by the time my car gets to the end of the warranty the repairs will be much cheaper. But you can’t excuse a high proportion of one type of car having a potential issue because you find a handful of another type with a similar bill.

[gangzoom]

Heres Johnny said:

But you can’t excuse a high proportion of one type of car having a potential issue because you find a handful of another type with a similar bill.

The OP is the trying make out all EVs are potentially due a battery replacement after 5 years, when we both know thats just BS.

Ironically the only EV I would not be sure about owning long term is a 90kWh pack Tesla based on actual data, yet thats the on which you keen on pretending there is no issues with.

90 pack showing 10% degredation after 56K, that's nearly as bad a 24kWh Leaf. Still not as bad as the picture OP is trying to paint, but would you buy one a 8 years and 1 day old?? For EVs to make sense they have to make sense as used buys, the majority of car owners will never be able to afford a brand new EV.

https://youtu.be/De6wBGAUzOk

Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 17th November 09:16

[DonkeyApple]

Once a Tesla for example is 8 years old and up for sale then any buyer is going to be wanting an independent battery pack report from which they base their offer price. Older cars with refurbed packs will be priced better than ones with shagged packs etc.

I’m not really seeing the battery as the issue long term.

More pressing concerns would be the risk of motor failure as those are not at all cheap but I suspect that they are however pretty durable and will probably have a much longer shelf life than the car itself so be a good asset when scrapping?

But the software would be the thing that raises questions for me. What is going to be the cost of running old software or updating etc? This strikes me as the area where manufacturers will seek to make the bulk of their secondary sales and that it will be used as a tool to incentives new purchases.

I generally find when I look in the rather large box in my office that is a graveyard for 21st century technology that it is not batteries that have sent these items there, nor that they have broken but that they have become obsolete and the world no longer supports them.

When you buy that ten year old Jag you never have to talk to anyone at Jaguar. You never have to pay Jaguar prices etc. When you buy a ten year old Tesla you’re still going to have to be paying Musk as if it’s a brand new car but without that payment being under a warranty.

I’m not sure EVs will generally last as long as ICE can because of the ongoing cost of ‘maintenance’ and that it keeps you locked in to main dealer prices for ever.

[98elise]

DonkeyApple said:

Once a Tesla for example is 8 years old and up for sale then any buyer is going to be wanting an independent battery pack report from which they base their offer price. Older cars with refurbed packs will be priced better than ones with shagged packs etc.

I’m not really seeing the battery as the issue long term.

More pressing concerns would be the risk of motor failure as those are not at all cheap but I suspect that they are however pretty durable and will probably have a much longer shelf life than the car itself so be a good asset when scrapping?

But the software would be the thing that raises questions for me. What is going to be the cost of running old software or updating etc? This strikes me as the area where manufacturers will seek to make the bulk of their secondary sales and that it will be used as a tool to incentives new purchases.

I generally find when I look in the rather large box in my office that is a graveyard for 21st century technology that it is not batteries that have sent these items there, nor that they have broken but that they have become obsolete and the world no longer supports them.

When you buy that ten year old Jag you never have to talk to anyone at Jaguar. You never have to pay Jaguar prices etc. When you buy a ten year old Tesla you’re still going to have to be paying Musk as if it’s a brand new car but without that payment being under a warranty.

I’m not sure EVs will generally last as long as ICE can because of the ongoing cost of ‘maintenance’ and that it keeps you locked in to main dealer prices for ever.

You can see the state of the battery pack through the UI

What do you do about updating the software in your current car?

There is no cost to running old software. It will simply keep doing what it does until the hardware fails. It's a closed system so not subject to all manner of 3rd party software that slows it down or becomes incompatible.

[DonkeyApple]

98elise said:

You can see the state of the battery pack through the UI

What do you do about updating the software in your current car?

There is no cost to running old software. It will simply keep doing what it does until the hardware fails. It's a closed system so not subject to all manner of 3rd party software that slows it down or becomes incompatible.

Do you honestly think that the opportunity will not be seized upon by global enterprises to use the software and what processes the software as a tool for continual revenue or an incentive to dispose? That would mean an absolutely enormous cultural shift for modern business that is almost impossible to even imagine.

EVs can’t be built that will last indefinitely the model can only work if you keep the same consumers coming back and if your old products expire within a suitable time frame.

If the value of the EV is in the motors and the batteries then there will be a change in the economics of keeping these cars going over ICE. It’ll remain cost effective to replace suspension or worn out interiors etc. You’ll have motors that can last far longer than an ICe, power packs that can be refurbed every 5+ years, a body which is less and less likely to be made of material that corrodes rapidly. On paper you should be able to buy an EV and just keep it for decades and decades.

ICE uses finance, fear and greed to keep demand for replacement cars up. EVs will work the same but what is backing ICE up is the pretty predictable countdown to expiry. If they didn’t rot and have costly mechanicals to expire then they would all last much longer and this would remove a very powerful driver and underpinning to the finance, fear and greed elements.

I do suspect that software will be playing an extremely pivotal role in ensuring EVs get scrapped as quickly as possible and consumers rush out to buy new ones as often as possible.

What you are suggesting manifestly should be the case. EVs to be environmental should be encouraged to last 2, 3 times longer than an ICE conventionally would. But for this to happen we would need to add yogurt weaving back into the EV industry and for the manufacturers to register as charitable non profit organisations. In reality, the yogurt weavers are long gone, EVs aren’t about being eco they are about being the ultimate consumer good and they are built by firms which will be reporting profits and growth and that means obsolescence remains a hugely vital part of the business plan. And it just strikes me that software and the cost of it will be the perfect tool.

[Witchfinder]

98elise said:

There is no cost to running old software. It will simply keep doing what it does until the hardware fails. It's a closed system so not subject to all manner of 3rd party software that slows it down or becomes incompatible.

Only there is, and that cost is usually security updates (or lack thereof). Think MS Windows or Android.

That said, I think cars will be ready for recycling by the time manufacturer software support becomes a problem. I suspect cars are going to end up being more like mobile phones, with the majority "owned" on contracts or lease.

[Heres Johnny]

gangzoom said:

Heres Johnny said:

But you can’t excuse a high proportion of one type of car having a potential issue because you find a handful of another type with a similar bill.

The OP is the trying make out all EVs are potentially due a battery replacement after 5 years, when we both know thats just BS.

Ironically the only EV I would not be sure about owning long term is a 90kWh pack Tesla based on actual data, yet thats the on which you keen on pretending there is no issues with.

90 pack showing 10% degredation after 56K, that's nearly as bad a 24kWh Leaf. Still not as bad as the picture OP is trying to paint, but would you buy one a 8 years and 1 day old?? For EVs to make sense they have to make sense as used buys, the majority of car owners will never be able to afford a brand new EV.

https://youtu.be/De6wBGAUzOk

Edited by gangzoom on Saturday 17th November 09:16

I’m not worried because I have a v3 battery pack. That’s had all the gremlins fixed

The degradation across all of them tends to be early on, a degraded 90 makes it about the same as an 85, it’s annoying if it happens to you, but there’s no evidence that a 90 plummets to 80 then 70% etc.

[peterperkins]

Enforced end of life due to software updates reared it's head with apple not that long ago.

I would not put it past manufacturers especially with most vehicles nowadays being wifi enabled or connected, to have 'recommended' updates that might not be an advantage to the owner.

It might be wise to disable auto update etc on some older vehicles to prevent manufacturers meddling..

Of course we might get to the point where the MOT requires a car systems to be upto date with the manufacturer's latest firmwares etc..

[LarsG]

lowdrag said:

No, this is not hypothetical but a new scandal in France. In 2012 a man purchased a Peugeot Ion for €11,285. The battery is guaranteed for 5 years or 30,000, whichever comes first. Fair play I suppose, but by March 2017 he had done 60,000 miles and the batteries failed, so he went to the dealers for advice, thinking it would be easy to resolve. But no, a new battery was needed at a cost of €17,750. Peugeot, all heart, offered him a 30% discount or €5,200 against a new electric car. He contacted a French magazine and they worked out that over the 60,000 miles his "consumption" had worked out at €18 per 60 miles, or the equivalent of 21 litres per 100 miles. If my poor maths is correct that equated to about 18 mpg for a small car which would do well over 50mpg. Yes I know things have moved on since then, but I certainly will be keeping my hands in my pockets until I see where this is leading us.

A reason not to buy a second hand electric car and a reason not to buy a new one.

[DonkeyApple]

peterperkins said:

Enforced end of life due to software updates reared it's head with apple not that long ago.

I would not put it past manufacturers especially with most vehicles nowadays being wifi enabled or connected, to have 'recommended' updates that might not be an advantage to the owner.

It might be wise to disable auto update etc on some older vehicles to prevent manufacturers meddling..

Of course we might get to the point where the MOT requires a car systems to be upto date with the manufacturer's latest firmwares etc..

It’s not as if manufacturers don’t currently spend billions lobbying for legislation that assists turnover. That really isn’t going to change.

Re Apple, I have some iPhone 4 devices that have long since reached the point of being supported. That on its own is no great issue, they still do the basics absolutely perfectly even though you can no longer update them but it’s all the third party add-ons that slowly but steadily stop working. TomTom was on its last legs earlier in the year as an example. Once you tie the consumer experience into third party services that helps massively to speed up redundancy.

[DonkeyApple]

LarsG said:

A reason not to buy a second hand electric car and a reason not to buy a new one.

Absolutely. Let’s all move forward as a society and manage our own personal needs and wishes based on the singular, anomalous experience of a cheese eating surrender monkey.

[manracer]

Everything I'm reading here about manufacturers leveraging certainly elements of an EV to keep the existing status quo around keeping customers tied to the dealer network around software etc is the exact reason I'm getting a Tesla, they aren't doing this, and any attempt by a mainstream manufacturer to do so should backfire dramatically. It's also another reason why I laugh so much when I read that Tesla is doomed once Mercedes and vw join the EV party.

And let's not talk about the mainstream manufacturers equivalent of the supercharger network.

[RobDickinson]

Tesla though do tie you into their parts and repair etc. Door handles coded to the car, very long waits for any parts. Yes they've just released parts catalog but half of them are restricted to Tesla service centers...

I'm Europe I don't think there will be a charging network problem, Tesla is going ccs and the ccs network is expanding pretty quickly, perhaps Tesla will open up their SC network once it supports ccs..?

It is though fractured from a user /payment pov which needs sorting

[Heres Johnny]

Have a prang in a Tesla beyond a cosmetic knock and wave goodbye to supercharging, software updates, app access etc unless you pay Tesla or their approved agents to fix. And recent threads have quotes of 2.5k to 3k for a scratch most others are quoting £500 to fix. It’s thinly disguised extortion